The Horsey Machine: a fantasy
October 9th, 2024 at 7:08:30 PM
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In my fantasy I play the Konami horses all day and all night. Phone and headphones kept charged with the USB power outlet, listening to music, waitress bringing me drink after drink.
And it's +EV! Some quick calculations after seeing the odds usually reveal a non-correlation between the odds to win and the quiniela odds, and such a discrepancy is usually playable. A thousand or so in EV a day, no-sweat betting level, no heat, no rude and abusive muggles, hosts always happy to see me. What could be better? A dream machine!
I'm looking more closely at the bets available now. There's a jackpot, winnable by a randomly selected 6 digit number corresponding to the finish of all the horsies, plus lesser prizes. And to my horror, it's +EV!
Horror? Yes, because experience tells me that when something is +EV without doing any work or any research, it isn't- the game is not exactly what you thought it was.
For nobody said that 6 digit number was random, it's just easy to assume that. And nobody said the finishing position of the horse, other than win, had anything to do with where else the horse might finish in the pack. So unlike a real horse race, a favorite who does not win is not a favorite to place or show. And all you can bet is win or quiniela. So the place finisher cannot be bet, thus the place finisher can be random and weighted to represent the offered quiniela odds.
I am awakened from my mechanoequine reverie by the conclusion that the game may only appear to have exploitable information offered in the odds table, and the game can be both honest, and as random as a slot machine. So I will have to find my dream machine elsewhere.
And it's +EV! Some quick calculations after seeing the odds usually reveal a non-correlation between the odds to win and the quiniela odds, and such a discrepancy is usually playable. A thousand or so in EV a day, no-sweat betting level, no heat, no rude and abusive muggles, hosts always happy to see me. What could be better? A dream machine!
I'm looking more closely at the bets available now. There's a jackpot, winnable by a randomly selected 6 digit number corresponding to the finish of all the horsies, plus lesser prizes. And to my horror, it's +EV!
Horror? Yes, because experience tells me that when something is +EV without doing any work or any research, it isn't- the game is not exactly what you thought it was.
For nobody said that 6 digit number was random, it's just easy to assume that. And nobody said the finishing position of the horse, other than win, had anything to do with where else the horse might finish in the pack. So unlike a real horse race, a favorite who does not win is not a favorite to place or show. And all you can bet is win or quiniela. So the place finisher cannot be bet, thus the place finisher can be random and weighted to represent the offered quiniela odds.
I am awakened from my mechanoequine reverie by the conclusion that the game may only appear to have exploitable information offered in the odds table, and the game can be both honest, and as random as a slot machine. So I will have to find my dream machine elsewhere.
