Collectibles: Investment, Confidence Game or Gamble?

I just saw a commercial for the next big thing. Richard Simmons, Bob Ross, and Willie Nelson Chia Pets.

Quote: rxwine

I just saw a commercial for the next big thing. Richard Simmons, Bob Ross, and Willie Nelson Chia Pets.
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I will be buying a Bob Ross Chia Pet for my wife for Christmas. We are very fortunate and don't really need anything so we buy each other silly little gifts. I was not aware of the Bob Ross Chia Pet but now I need to buy it. If anyone knows where I can get a McDonald's Grimace pool float please let me know. They did a promotion in June and had technical issues and cancelled it. A Grimace pool float would be another gift for the wife but I can't find one anywhere.

This was actually meant for WoV, but got published on WoO:

https://wizardofodds.com/online-gambling/articles/hasbro-stock-on-a-substantial-decline-could-the-end-be-near

It's probably not a big deal. In any event, that page takes a look at the fallout from Magic 30th Anniversary as well as how Hasbro's stock has been performing over the last few months.

Using your Magic game as an example, does it have much appeal to the younger folks that might be the future collectors of it? My uninformed opinion is that many people want to collect what they played with and as they get older and have expedible income they will buy items tied to their youth. If not many of todays youngsters are playing it I would assume the collectibility will fade.

I would like to buy the first motorcycle that I ever had. I sold it for $200 and it only had 3000 miles on it. If I could find one in good shape for around $2k I would buy it. I would probably only ride it the first day I got it because I don't have a license for it anymore. I really just want it in the garage to say I have it.

Quote: DRich

Using your Magic game as an example, does it have much appeal to the younger folks that might be the future collectors of it? My uninformed opinion is that many people want to collect what they played with and as they get older and have expedible income they will buy items tied to their youth. If not many of todays youngsters are playing it I would assume the collectibility will fade.

I would like to buy the first motorcycle that I ever had. I sold it for $200 and it only had 3000 miles on it. If I could find one in good shape for around $2k I would buy it. I would probably only ride it the first day I got it because I don't have a license for it anymore. I really just want it in the garage to say I have it.

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That's another big question mark, younger people, but is the reason that I think the game will still do well for the next few decades.

Magic started to really grow in popularity in the mid-late 90's and has added a steady stream of newcomers in the intervening years. I also imagine that Magic the Gathering-Online and Magic the Gathering-Arena have helped a lot with attracting younger players by drawing them in with free to play mobile/computer products first.

When we look at those 90's players, let's call them anywhere from 12-22 between the years of 1995-2000 during the first spike in the game's popularity. With that, those people are going to range in age now anywhere from their early-mid thirties to late forties/early-fifties sort of range.

With that, I think there is a certain nostalgia factor, but again, lots of people have nostalgia for this game as it has continued to pick up new fans year over year.

Some of these individuals are already in their prime earnings period, whilst others will be entering into it.

Thirty years from now, I don't think it would be a surprise to walk into a McDonald's and see a group of 70-80 year old dudes hanging out and playing Magic: The Gathering with physical cards.

The real question for the game is whether it can continue to attract, but more importantly retain, new players. The answer is almost certainly, "Not forever," so the questions becomes, "How long?"

Speaking of Hasbro, my son and I enjoyed the "G.I. Joe" parody on an episode of "Community," so I went to look for a "G.I. Joe" DVD at the library. Apparently, they're not deemed to be of educational value, because none of my local branches carry it!

But I see that the Hasbro channel on YouTube not only has most of the full episodes, but also a 24/7 streaming channel of old episodes! (They're so cheesy to my adult eyes.)

A lot of the money in modern sports collectibles right now seems to be more of a form of gambling than collecting or investing. A YouTube channel with an interesting series called Chasing Cardboard had results of a poll saying something like 70% of collectors or viewers re-sell some of their cards. Gambling on player/team performance in hopes of selling for more at some point in the season within a few months.

Of course it’s severely negative expected value on the whole with new product continuously coming on the market, eBay/selling fees around 10%+, players not living up to hype and other factors, but some people make money on it and it’s a way for others to fuel a gambling addiction.

Quote: Mission146

This was actually meant for WoV, but got published on WoO:

https://wizardofodds.com/online-gambling/articles/hasbro-stock-on-a-substantial-decline-could-the-end-be-near

It's probably not a big deal. In any event, that page takes a look at the fallout from Magic 30th Anniversary as well as how Hasbro's stock has been performing over the last few months.
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We've got another article in this series, for those interested:

https://wizardofodds.com/article/a-magical-recovery-until-it-wasn-t-part-1-of-3/

This one takes a deep dive into the year in Hasbro to see what has gone right and gone wrong for them since the March article. If you have any doubt that things have gone both right and wrong since then, let me just say their share price was at $47.xx when I wrote the March article, peaked at a closing price just under $73/share, cratered to sub-Covid levels (closing below $43 at least once) and has returned to $52.15 (as of this second)...all in nine months.

No matter how you cut it, that's a hell of an interesting ride, so check out my article linked above to find out why.

The next article will contain choice excerpts from another interview with Paul of Geekadrome; I expect that to be out in a week or two. I'm going to try to get some follow up with him for the third article and to, perhaps, conduct interviews with at least one other outlet.

Part 3 MIGHT not come out until we have year-end numbers (for 2023) for Hasbro, or if it comes out before that, there will be a separate article that dives into the Year End stuff.

It is fascinating to see why some tulips gain value, and some even hold it.

I've never like the investment or gambling comparisons to this stuff. A lot of the people who did get "lucky" on all the baseball cards, Magic cards, Pokemon cards, bought them as toys, not as an investment or gamble; then they just happened to be the ones to hold on to them when they weren't very much.

Most of the people who earn money from these things see their profits come from labor and business skills. I know we can say that opening a retail store requires an investment and it is a gamble. Just not the same type of investment as buying stocks or gold; and not the same type of gamble as going to the casino. The return is determined so much by how much labor someone puts in, the business skills they have and how they deploy them.

Quote: TomG

It is fascinating to see why some tulips gain value, and some even hold it.

I've never like the investment or gambling comparisons to this stuff. A lot of the people who did get "lucky" on all the baseball cards, Magic cards, Pokemon cards, bought them as toys, not as an investment or gamble; then they just happened to be the ones to hold on to them when they weren't very much.

Most of the people who earn money from these things see their profits come from labor and business skills. I know we can say that opening a retail store requires an investment and it is a gamble. Just not the same type of investment as buying stocks or gold; and not the same type of gamble as going to the casino. The return is determined so much by how much labor someone puts in, the business skills they have and how they deploy them.
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Excellent post; thank you!

I think you made excellent points and hit on a point that Alpha Investments recently touched on; lots of it is about simply sitting on something for a long time and, essentially, getting lucky. Alpha Investment's comparison was looking at what Amazon has done over the years and the theoretical of getting in on the ground floor before it really started to take off, but as he mentioned, most people aren't going to be sitting there holding it while it does very close to nothing for a decade before all of that happened.

As you point out, local game stores and online retailers are engaged in a business. I definitely agree with you there and those with the business acumen, and patience, are the most likely to do well in this, or any other, realm. Of course, that doesn't prevent people from getting into investing and collecting on a small scale, and even those who played the cards and happened to hold on to them still, while they may not have intended it, made an investment.

After seeing what those investments have done over the years and decades, I'd say people exercising the same patience and business acumen that the big boys do might also make some money in the long run. I don't think that collectible card games are necessarily the best, or safest, investment...but I do think the potential to do well exists, especially if you're enfranchised with those things anyway.

Buy a widget for $1,000 on an internet auction. You add the buyers premium of 18%, sales tax of 8% and $50 to ship and insure it.
Your all-in price is $1310.
A year later, consign the widget to the same auction. You got lucky, and it went up 25% in value that year and sells for $1250. This time, the auction gets you for a 10% seller premium, so you get a check for $1125.
Your widget went up 25%, but you lost on the deal due to auction house fees and Uncle Sam is waiting for his taste.
On the retail side, it's a tough business. Don't be a collector. Be the guy who supplies the collectors. Or the guy who supplies the supplies.

Last week, I bought 100 comics at an auction. Paid 80 cents each, or $80 plus $12 fees plus $22 shipping.
Yesterday, I sold 95 of the same books for fifty cents each, and owe the seller 15% of the total.
The five remaining books should sell for $300-$500. They are variant copies that are both scarce and in demand.
This was an online auction open to anyone, but my research found values no one else looked for. They read a description and glanced at a picture before moving on. The harder you work, the luckier you get.

Quote: billryan

Last week, I bought 100 comics at an auction. Paid 80 cents each, or $80 plus $12 fees plus $22 shipping.
Yesterday, I sold 95 of the same books for fifty cents each, and owe the seller 15% of the total.
The five remaining books should sell for $300-$500. They are variant copies that are both scarce and in demand.
This was an online auction open to anyone, but my research found values no one else looked for. They read a description and glanced at a picture before moving on. The harder you work, the luckier you get.
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At what point does it stop being luck?

I think it's very clear that you simply have excellent knowledge of the collectible and know how to look for tremendous values and capitalize on them. You've done all of this at a time that collectibles, in general, are on a decline. For most people, this would just be lucking into what they might see as a once in a lifetime find, but for you, "It's a Tuesday."

(R.I.P. Raul Julia)

Allow me to answer with a story.

Over the summer, I drove from Arizona to NY by way of Alabama and followed Route 66 on the way back.
Along the way, I stopped at various types of stores and did some shopping. I'd ask if they had things I didn't see.
In a shop in Lancaster, Pa- the heart of tourist country, I was in a vintage-type shop and asked if they had any comics. The woman called a kid over and he took me to the back room. He didn't say much but I got the idea they had some shoplifting going on. The books were average stock, and not cheap. As I was leaving I noticed what looked like a box of 1986 Don Russ wax tucked in a corner. It turned out they had about a dozen of them that they sold me for $200 and I sold to a friend in NY for $500.
Would you say I got lucky or did my hard work pay off?
I'm fine with either possibility.

I've long specialized in 1960s stuff, but some of the mid-90s stuff is really popping.

The find was lucky, but the knowledge that it took you this amount of time to amass paid off.

I collect old Dinky Toys; loved 'em as a kid and now I play with them when my grandson comes to visit; he likes to pretend we're defending against an attack by Godzilla.