tomchina123
tomchina123
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Joined: Aug 26, 2015
September 25th, 2022 at 10:34:42 AM permalink
why cannot i beat the dragon bonus side bet of bac?
i played it in a small country, calculating it by computer and sent the EV by cell phone( i knew some friend in security department). but i still lost money after 1 year, playing 20 hours a day by 3 people. normal speed of bac.

did i do calculation wrong? that is the point of the thread.

here is my calculation:
normal standard paytable 1,1,2,4,6,10,30, then player bonus EV; -2.65167%
after cards removed,
card value card left
1 18
2 19
3 20
4 21
5 22
6 23
7 24
8 25
9 26
0 104
then EV: 0.93117%
card value card left
1 18
2 17
3 16
4 15
5 14
6 13
7 12
8 11
9 10
0 40
then EV: -9.27191%

is there anything wrong with my calculation?
MDawg
MDawg
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September 25th, 2022 at 11:05:12 AM permalink
Are you playing at a casino where you are allowed to bet only the side bets even if their sum total is under the table minimum?

At some casinos for example, even if the table is 500 minimum, a 100 tie bet will be allowed. At other casinos, the special bets (the Tiger 6 or Dragon 7) are allowed to be placed by themselves only if the sum of the special bets equals the table minimum.

In other words, are you losing where you are betting only the Dragon, or losing over all between the Dragon bets and the regular Bank/Player bets.

Also as far as the Tiger 6, in Vegas one casino pays this at 50:1 so that makes a difference too. To deter counting that casino has been cutting away something like a deck and a half or more away from the shoe, such that the average number of hands is only mid 60s, versus the usual 75-80 or so.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
tomchina123
tomchina123
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Joined: Aug 26, 2015
September 25th, 2022 at 11:28:23 AM permalink
thanks for your reply, MDawg. though what i care most for now is if my calucation on dragon bonus bet on player is right.


Quote: MDawg

Are you playing at a casino where you are allowed to bet only the side bets even if their sum total is under the table minimum?

At some casinos for example, even if the table is 500 minimum, a 100 tie bet will be allowed. At other casinos, the special bets (the Tiger 6 or Dragon 7) are allowed to be placed by themselves only if the sum of the special bets equals the table minimum.

In other words, are you losing where you are betting only the Dragon, or losing over all between the Dragon bets and the regular Bank/Player bets.

Also as far as the Tiger 6, in Vegas one casino pays this at 50:1 so that makes a difference too. To deter counting that casino has been cutting away something like a deck and a half or more away from the shoe, such that the average number of hands is only mid 60s, versus the usual 75-80 or so.
link to original post

aceside
aceside
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September 25th, 2022 at 12:24:52 PM permalink
I researched this dragon side bet a little. It seems that Michael Bluejay, Eliot Jacobson, Steve How and the Wizzard all have investigated this and found it promising. Interesting!
DRich
DRich
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September 25th, 2022 at 2:54:57 PM permalink
Quote: tomchina123

why cannot i beat the dragon bonus side bet of bac?
i played it in a small country, calculating it by computer and sent the EV by cell phone( i knew some friend in security department). but i still lost money after 1 year, playing 20 hours a day by 3 people. normal speed of bac.



I would not bother calculating it. It has been analyzed to death. Check out https://www.888casino.com/blog/known-card-play-against-the-dragon-7-and-panda-8-baccarat-side-bets
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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