EdCollins
EdCollins
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
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July 27th, 2019 at 10:36:32 AM permalink
I cut this story out of my local newspaper when I read it while living in Michigan, back in 1989. I saved it because I wanted to discuss it with a buddy of mine who's a big golfer, the next time I saw him.

Four holes in one, all on the same day, all on the same hole, all within two hours of each other:

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1989-06-17-sp-1636-story.html
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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July 27th, 2019 at 11:44:35 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

I cut this story out of my local newspaper when I read it while living in Michigan, back in 1989. I saved it because I wanted to discuss it with a buddy of mine who's a big golfer, the next time I saw him.

Four holes in one, all on the same day, all on the same hole, all within two hours of each other:

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1989-06-17-sp-1636-story.html



The odds mentioned in the article were very different from each other. I wonder what happened?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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July 27th, 2019 at 2:35:12 PM permalink
Greens are not all the same, and the placement of the pins varies a lot as well. If you put the pin in an area where the ball will tend to roll to from either side (a bowl) the chance of a hole in one increases greatly. Not a hole in one, but an eagle for me, was a shot from around 100 yards, that I hit maybe 103 yards, that slowly rolled down a slope on the green into the hole. If I hit it 102 yards on the same line probably the same result. Same for 101 yards.
(Hole 16 at Peek N Peek course, where a Korn Ferry event (used to Web.com tour, used to be Nationwide tour) was played.
I play one 230 yard hole that is a par 3. If I've played it 30 times I've only been on the green once. You can put the pin anywhere and 80+% of golfers can't even hit the ball that far.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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August 8th, 2019 at 3:00:47 AM permalink
I would like to dispute the 1 in 1,300,000 probability of two golfers out of four making a hole in one on the same hole in a round as quoted in Golf Digest.

Let's assume the 1 in 12,500 probability per hole is correct. Let's also assume that all hole-in-ones happen on par 3 holes. Let's also assume that a round has four par-3 holes. That would make the probability on a par 3 equal to 1 in 2,778 per golfer. Let's call that probability p.

Then the probability of a foursome seeing two golfers making a hole-in-one on the same hole would be:

4*combin(4,2)*p^2*(1-p)^2 = 1 in 321,734.

Yes, I know a hole-in-one is possible on a par 4 or 5 and this ignores 3 or all 4 players getting a hole in one. I'm trying to not muddy the waters with those factors, to keep things simple.

Where Golf Digest seems to err is in assuming every hole has the same chance at a hole in one. If I assume that, I get fairly close to their figure with 1 in 1,446,991.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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