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Wizard
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Wizard
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Gialmere
June 7th, 2019 at 5:49:53 PM permalink
Spin Lotto is mathematically like the lottery, but skinned like a slot machine. It involved picking five numbers from 1 to 49 and a Star Ball (like the PowerBall) from 1 to 15. If the player super sizes his bet, he can multiply any wins involving the Star Ball, except the jackpot.

For all the rules and analysis, please see my new page on the game. I welcome all comments.

The question for the poll is would you play Spin Lotto? Multiple votes allowed.

Choice 5 should read, "Why did the uniforms change color, from orange to blue, on Orange is the New Black?" There is a limit to the number of characters.

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Gialmere
Gialmere
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
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June 8th, 2019 at 8:55:30 PM permalink
I'm a little confused. Rule #3 states...

Quote:

3. The game will draw 15 balls, without replacement, from 1 to 49. These will be arranged in five columns of three rows each.


...and yet, in the OP screen shot, the numbers "4" and "42" appear twice suggesting each reel contains balls 1-49.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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June 9th, 2019 at 2:26:10 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

I'm a little confused. Rule #3 states...

Quote:
3. The game will draw 15 balls, without replacement, from 1 to 49. These will be arranged in five columns of three rows each.

...and yet, in the OP screen shot, the numbers "4" and "42" appear twice suggesting each reel contains balls 1-49.



First, I agree with Gialmere. The game draws 15 balls WITH replacement. That is clear in the explanation of the rules of the Gluck website, where it explains the payoff if you have, for example, picked the number 1 and then one of the lines comes out as 1-1-1-1-1.

So I suspect the return or house edge will need to be recalculated.

Also, from the tables on the WOO page dealing with the lucky star multiplier, I can't understand whether the analysis was done correctly. I note that when your star ball is in the middle row, there are 4 possible lines that can win, whereas when it is in the the upper or lowest row, there are only three possible ways to win a line.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jun 9, 2019
Sometimes, people are just a bottomless mystery. And, after all, this is just a sh*tty little forum in the sun-less backwaters of the online world.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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Gialmere
June 9th, 2019 at 4:27:12 PM permalink
There are 15 spots that can match your 5 numbers and you can have anything from 0 to 15 matches, although the most likely results will be 1X or 2X. Each spot has a 5/49 probability of being a match, independent of what happens with other spots.

Le's refer to the rows as A, B,C starting from the top row, and the columns as 1,2,3,4,5 starting with the left-most column.

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5
B1 B2 B3 B4 B5
C1 C2 C3 C4 C5

Spots B1, A2, C3, A4 and B5 have different properties than the other 10 spots because they each contribute to 4 lines, whereas the other 10 spots only contribute to 3 lines.

Define:
Power spots: B1, A2, C3, A4 and B5
Ordinary spots: A1,A3,A5,B2.B3,B4, C1.C2.C4,C5

When you have 2 -and only 2 -matches and both are in power spots

B1/B5 produces 4 lines with 2 matches each

A2/A4 produces 3 lines with 2 matches each and 2 lines with 1 match

B1/A2, B1/C3, B1/A4, A2/B5, C3/B5 and A4/B5 produce 2 lines each with 2 matches and 4 lines with 1 match

A2/C3 and A4/C3 produce only 1 line with 2 matches (and 6 lines with 1 match)

so that's an average of 2.1 lines with 2 matches and 3.8 lines with 1 match

When you have 2 -and only 2 -matches and both are in the same column

A1/B1, B1/C1, A2/B2, A2/C2, A3/C3, B3/C3, A4/B4, A4/C4, A5,/B5, B5/C5 will have No lines with 2 matches and 7 lines with 1 match.
A1/C1, B2/C2, A3/B3, B4/C4, A3/B3 will have No lines with 2 matches and only 6 lines with 1 match.

So, that is 0 lines with 2 matches and an average of 6.667 lines with 1 match.

For, now, I will punt on the other "2 matches" cases.

This methodological approach becomes very difficult when you have to work out the scenarios for when you have either 7 or 8 matches.
Sometimes, people are just a bottomless mystery. And, after all, this is just a sh*tty little forum in the sun-less backwaters of the online world.
Gialmere
Gialmere
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June 12th, 2019 at 8:13:27 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

There are 15 spots that can match your 5 numbers and you can have anything from 0 to 15 matches, although the most likely results will be 1X or 2X. Each spot has a 5/49 probability of being a match, independent of what happens with other spots.


I dunno. I've been messing with it and, although duplicate numbers are fairly common, you never see them on the same column. I'm thinking each column is a slot reel with every ball being randomly generated for the three spots without replacement. So...

Quote: gordonm888

Let's refer to the rows as A, B,C starting from the top row, and the columns as 1,2,3,4,5 starting with the left-most column.

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5
B1 B2 B3 B4 B5
C1 C2 C3 C4 C5


...assume you picked numbers 1-5. If #1 lands on the A1 stop it cannot land on B1 or C1 and therefore their chances are reduced to 4/49. If, on the same spin, #2 lands on B1, then C1 is reduced to a 3/49.

If true, how does this affect the return% math?

P.S. It's not a burning issue so don't bother if it sounds tiresome, but thank you for your analysis above. I'm not a math wiz but find this stuff fascinating.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Wizard
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Wizard
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GialmereRadgedMrCasinoGames
June 12th, 2019 at 8:49:54 PM permalink
You guys are absolutely right that numbers can repeat. After playing for a while, I have never seen the same ball in the same column. This leads me to believe each column is drawn from a separate pool of 49 balls, without replacement.

That said, I redid the math under these rules and the odds turn out the same. I must admit I wasn't expecting that. I will have to think about an explanation in simple English why the odds are the same.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Radged
Radged
Joined: May 10, 2019
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June 12th, 2019 at 10:53:49 PM permalink
I noticed the same thing! Why is this happening?
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 13th, 2019 at 4:47:27 AM permalink
I looked at my original spreadsheet and the formula would be that for if all 15 balls were drawn WITH replacement. Yes, I know I said "without replacement" on my site. As I try to think about it, my math without replacement didn't match that claimed in the help file of the game, but there was a match with replacement. So, I went with that, but forgot to update the rules. Sorry for the laziness.

Here is what the math would like like if the whole game were dealt without replacement.

Catch Star Pays Combinations Probability Return
0 No - 15,204,112 0.531552 0.000000
1 No - 9,502,570 0.332220 0.000000
2 No 5 1,854,160 0.064823 0.324117
3 No 25 132,440 0.004630 0.115756
4 No 250 3,080 0.000108 0.026920
5 No 1,000 14 0.000000 0.000489
0 Yes - 1,086,008 0.037968 0.000000
1 Yes 5 678,755 0.023730 0.118650
2 Yes 10 132,440 0.004630 0.046302
3 Yes 50 9,460 0.000331 0.016537
4 Yes 500 220 0.000008 0.003846
5 Yes 10,000 1 0.000000 0.000350
Total 28,603,260 1.000000 0.652967
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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