Three Card Blackjack
September 9th, 2010 at 4:43:49 PM
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Here is a preview of my new page on Three Card Blackjack. I welcome comments, questions, and corrections.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 9th, 2010 at 4:52:28 PM
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Very straight forward and understandable analysis, Mike.
I would not change anything.
I would not change anything.
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
September 9th, 2010 at 8:34:25 PM
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With almost a 3 1/2 percent house edge on the base game, it will never fly--2.5 percent is about right for table games, in that that house edge makes money quickly enough for the game to be profitable, but slowly enough so that the sheep are skinned instead of butchered (you DO want the sheep to come back, after all).
What will kill this game is that Pai Gow Poker in WA is such a good game--the small local casinos often deal no-commission PGP, which knocks the house edge down to just over 1%. Also, I haven't examined your strategy for 3CBJ in detail, but it seems that a novice could nake significant strategy errors--which would increase the house edge even further.
This game will die after its novelty value wears off.
What will kill this game is that Pai Gow Poker in WA is such a good game--the small local casinos often deal no-commission PGP, which knocks the house edge down to just over 1%. Also, I haven't examined your strategy for 3CBJ in detail, but it seems that a novice could nake significant strategy errors--which would increase the house edge even further.
This game will die after its novelty value wears off.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
September 9th, 2010 at 8:58:53 PM
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As someone who is not crazy enough to spend his time memorizing basic strategy for Blackjack when the expectation is still negative and prefers games like 3-Card Poker this game sounds enjoyable to me even if the payout is a little dry for my taste.
Yes I am a donkey, I never said that I wasn't!
September 10th, 2010 at 7:15:37 AM
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Quote: mkl654321With almost a 3 1/2 percent house edge on the base game, it will never fly--2.5 percent is about right for table games
Hmmm ... the three most successful proprietary games ...
- Caribbean Stud -- 5.22%
- Let it Ride -- 3.51%
- Three Card Poker -- 3.37%
Quote: mkl654321What will kill this game is that Pai Gow Poker in WA is such a good game
So Pai Gow is the reason NO other games have succeeded in WA? FYI, Pai Gow is a public domain game.
Spanish 21 is the proprietary game that has dominated the WA market for years.
The dirt is wet today, no watering needed --
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
September 10th, 2010 at 10:01:48 AM
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Thanks for the comments guys and gals. I'll leave the house edge fight to Dorothy.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 10th, 2010 at 12:09:00 PM
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Another thing the casinos may want to consider is an 8-player tournament Three Card Blackjack table in the poker room without the side bet.
The basic strategy is such that the average gambler would not feel dominated by the other players upon sitting down.
There are multiple poker tables and chances are that few people are down to their last $100 and would buy into the tournament for the chance to make it all back. You would even have people coming from downstairs to play so I can imagine that the table would fill up pretty fast.
Maybe the game is $100+$10 with a chance to win $800...I'd play it.
The basic strategy is such that the average gambler would not feel dominated by the other players upon sitting down.
There are multiple poker tables and chances are that few people are down to their last $100 and would buy into the tournament for the chance to make it all back. You would even have people coming from downstairs to play so I can imagine that the table would fill up pretty fast.
Maybe the game is $100+$10 with a chance to win $800...I'd play it.
Yes I am a donkey, I never said that I wasn't!
September 12th, 2010 at 8:00:42 AM
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Quote: WizardHere is a preview of my new page on Three Card Blackjack. I welcome comments, questions, and corrections.
One minor correction: xxx Should be other, or loser, or list txx ttx ttt seperately. Also, are there any hands that you would raise/fold based on their composition? Like 888 vs 2?
Man Babes #AxelFabulous
September 12th, 2010 at 8:35:58 AM
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Looks like an interesting game. I'd at least try it.
Is insurance offered if the dealer is showing an ace?
Is insurance offered if the dealer is showing an ace?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
September 12th, 2010 at 9:46:25 AM
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If the dealer is holding an ace, then the probability that one of the other two cards is a face card (so that the dealer has blackjack) isQuote: DJTeddyBearIs insurance offered if the dealer is showing an ace?
p = 1 - (35/51)*(34/50) = 0.533.
Since this is greater than 1/2, insurance would have to pay less than 1-to-1. One could have "anti-insurance," I suppose.
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
September 12th, 2010 at 9:51:46 AM
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Quote: DorothyGaleIf the dealer is holding an ace, then the probability that one of the other two cards is a face card (so that the dealer has blackjack) is
p = 1 - (35/51)*(34/50) = 0.533.
Since this is greater than 1/2, insurance would have to pay less than 1-to-1. One could have "anti-insurance," I suppose.
--Dorothy
A very astute observation, Dorothy. It can be a new bet. I assume the vendor is reading here...
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
September 12th, 2010 at 9:56:48 AM
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Even a Kansas ditsy can reason mathematically when the scarecrow stops by.Quote: PaigowdanA very astute observation, Dorothy.
Yes, then the bet can be just as successful as "insurance" is to blackjack ...Quote:It can be a new bet.
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
September 12th, 2010 at 11:55:51 AM
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Quote: DorothyGaleHmmm ... the three most successful proprietary games ...
- Caribbean Stud -- 5.22%
- Let it Ride -- 3.51%
- Three Card Poker -- 3.37%
So Pai Gow is the reason NO other games have succeeded in WA? FYI, Pai Gow is a public domain game.
Spanish 21 is the proprietary game that has dominated the WA market for years.
The dirt is wet today, no watering needed --
--Dorothy
In point of fact, the three games you mentioned are shrinking in popularity. Pai Gow Poker and Hold Em derivatives have taken a bite out of their market share. Spanish 21 isn't all that popular, though I see it more in the Injun casinos than the smaller in-town joints (the two markets are a lot different).
The reason Pai Gow Poker is so popular in the small in-town casinos is the very low house edge, with the no-commission rule. However, the places that deal PGP also usually deal one or more of the carny games you mentioned, as well as Spanish 21. I wouldn't call Spanish 21 "dominant", though.
The house edge numbers you mention are a large part of the reason that those games aren't all that popular. The players just don't last long enough with that kind of disadvantage.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
September 12th, 2010 at 12:45:37 PM
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A bit of humility in the presence of bona fide experts is in order, don't you think?Quote: mkl654321In point of fact
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
September 12th, 2010 at 1:34:47 PM
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Quote: DorothyGaleA bit of humility in the presence of bona fide experts is in order, don't you think?
--Dorothy
If this is your way of saying that I shouldn't disagree with you, I must point out that I am, myself, a "bona fide expert" in many aspects of gambling, by virtue of experience in the trenches over the course of twenty-plus years.
In any case, my assertion about the optimal house percentage for table games isn't of my own origin. Various persons have articulated that sentiment, including the CEO of Shuffle Master (whose name I can't recall), Kenny Uston of blackjack fame, and Gutboy Barrelhouse, the CEO of Harrah's.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
September 12th, 2010 at 4:14:51 PM
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Quote: mipletxxx Should be other, or loser, or list txx ttx ttt seperately. Also, are there any hands that you would raise/fold based on their composition? Like 888 vs 2?
Thanks, I changed "xxx" to "no aces." I didn't check every single card compositions when I created that strategy chart. It is an overall average for each total. I see from the expected value table, there are no situations close to -1.0, so I doubt there would be any exceptions.
Quote: DJTeddyBearIs insurance offered if the dealer is showing an ace?
No.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
