mrjjj
mrjjj
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July 23rd, 2011 at 11:14:21 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

If the monkey chooses randomly (and happens not to show you a car), switching or not doesn't matter. But if the monkey acts like Monty -- that is, it will always show you the goat because it knows where the car is and, under the rules, can't show it to you -- then you should always switch.




Not saying you're wrong so dont jump on me. I have read on other forums from a few math 'experts' that say you ARE suppose to switch doors. The question was geared around NO HUMAN interaction.


Ken
mrjjj
mrjjj
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July 23rd, 2011 at 11:23:25 PM permalink
The way I have read this in the past (not saying I'm right)........human interaction and lets say non-human interaction, are or could be (?) two different answers??

Ken
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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July 23rd, 2011 at 11:29:58 PM permalink
The species of the host doesn't matter, only the behavior. Wikipedia has a good article on this, and near the bottom is a table that compares different host behaviors. If the host acts randomly (as a monkey is presumably going to do) then switching doesn't matter.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Other_host_behaviors
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
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July 24th, 2011 at 12:00:46 AM permalink
Let me explain this problem that is as simple as it gets. Let us assume that there were 100 doors instead of just three. Behind 99 doors are goats, and behind one door is the car. Pick a number between 1-100. I randomly choose the car to be behind door number 25. You choose x. I will open all doors except door 25 and door x. Let us assume that x does not equal 25. Now I will give you the choice of having door x or door 25. Although there are only two doors left it is not a 50/50 proposition. 99% chance it is behind door 25 and only 1 % chance it is behind door x.

The key is that i know where the prize is and only open the doors without the prize. Hope this helps.
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EvenBob
EvenBob
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July 24th, 2011 at 12:30:37 AM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers

99% chance it is behind door 25 and only 1 % chance it is behind door x.

The key is that i know where the prize is and only open the doors without the prize. Hope this helps.



Most people understand it immediately if you make it 1000 doors.
What they get hung up on is the size of the sample, 3 doors. When
you greatly increase the sample, a child can understand it.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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July 24th, 2011 at 4:47:36 AM permalink
wow, I just noticed the prior unappreciated-genius-in-residence of this website could not get the monty hall paradox!! That does surprise me as whatever else you wanted to think about mkl654321 he was at least fairly smart, and very good at chess.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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July 24th, 2011 at 6:32:43 AM permalink
You're all forgetting three very important points:

1 - Monty Hall knew where the car was hidden.

2 - He did not always open a door and give the option to choose.

3 - He wanted want to avoid giving away the car.

As such, it was very rare for him to give you the option to switch, unless you already had selected the car.

A discussion of this was initiated here:
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/4396-the-monty-hall-paradox-interview-with-monty-hall/
It includes a link to an article which includes an interview with Monty Hall himself.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
mrjjj
mrjjj
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July 24th, 2011 at 6:39:49 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

wow, I just noticed the prior unappreciated-genius-in-residence of this website could not get the monty hall paradox!! That does surprise me as whatever else you wanted to think about mkl654321 he was at least fairly smart, and very good at chess.




Its called an adult asking a question and then getting feedback. The only thing that DOES surprise me are foul comments and I did mention, I have read contradicting answers from other boards.

Ken
mrjjj
mrjjj
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July 24th, 2011 at 6:41:29 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

You're all forgetting three very important points:

1 - Monty Hall knew where the car was hidden.

2 - He did not always open a door and give the option to choose.

3 - He wanted want to avoid giving away the car.

As such, it was very rare for him to give you the option to switch, unless you already had selected the car.

A discussion of this was initiated here:
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/4396-the-monty-hall-paradox-interview-with-monty-hall/
It includes a link to an article which includes an interview with Monty Hall himself.




Thank you for the reply. I am mainly interested in the answer with NO human interaction, which I guess I got.

Ken
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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July 24th, 2011 at 6:46:26 AM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

Quote: DJTeddyBear

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/4396-the-monty-hall-paradox-interview-with-monty-hall/
It includes a link to an article which includes an interview with Monty Hall himself.

Thank you for the reply. I am mainly interested in the answer with NO human interaction, which I guess I got.

That's fine, but remember one thing:

It's difficult / impossible to set up this problem without human interaction.

FYI: In the interview, Monty agrees with the math, but also explains why the math is meaningless.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

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