November 12th sessions again Wizard of Odds Baccarat Simulator
https://wizardofodds.com/play/baccarat/new/
Most of you will not catch this in time, but for those that do, here's the live stream:
http://www.twitch.tv/chancekamari
Feel free to ask me questions in the Twitch live chat. I'm not talkative so answering questions live might even make this a bit entertaining -- I hope!
Why watch?
The best way to learn how to play Baccarat is by watching someone play live and learn what's going on in their mind.
I'm not selling anything and I don't have a system to preach. If you want to watch me play or learn from me, do it for free. Please DON'T private message me whatever weirdo stuff you're thinking about.
After live stream:
The live stream will be archived so you can watch it as a video later on. I will come back to this thread to check for questions and attempt to answer all of them, except for personal questions about me, where I play, and blah blah.
So people are going to learn how to guess from you using fake money?Quote: chancekamariI'm playing against Wizard of Odds Baccarat simulator here:
https://wizardofodds.com/play/baccarat/new/
Most of you will not catch this in time, but for those that do, here's the live stream:
http://www.twitch.tv/chancekamari
Feel free to ask me questions in the Twitch live chat. I'm not talkative so answering questions live might even make this a bit entertaining -- I hope!
Why watch?
The best way to learn how to play Baccarat is by watching someone play live and learn what's going on in their mind.
I'm not selling anything and I don't have a system to preach. If you want to watch me play or learn from me, do it for free. Please DON'T private message me whatever weirdo stuff you're thinking about.
After live stream:
The live stream will be archived so you can watch it as a video later on. I will come back to this thread to check for questions and attempt to answer all of them, except for personal questions about me, where I play, and blah blah.
A monkey can play baccarat just as good as anyone else.
All the baccarat system players are just making the easiest casino game complicated.
They are fooling themselves into thinking there's some predictable patterns. It's all hogwash. Half the time they just make up crap as they go pretending there's a method to their madness.
Quote: AxelWolfSo people are going to learn how to guess from you using fake money?Quote: chancekamariI'm playing against Wizard of Odds Baccarat simulator here:
https://wizardofodds.com/play/baccarat/new/
Most of you will not catch this in time, but for those that do, here's the live stream:
http://www.twitch.tv/chancekamari
Feel free to ask me questions in the Twitch live chat. I'm not talkative so answering questions live might even make this a bit entertaining -- I hope!
Why watch?
The best way to learn how to play Baccarat is by watching someone play live and learn what's going on in their mind.
I'm not selling anything and I don't have a system to preach. If you want to watch me play or learn from me, do it for free. Please DON'T private message me whatever weirdo stuff you're thinking about.
After live stream:
The live stream will be archived so you can watch it as a video later on. I will come back to this thread to check for questions and attempt to answer all of them, except for personal questions about me, where I play, and blah blah.
A monkey can play baccarat just as good as anyone else.
All the baccarat system players are just making the easiest casino game complicated.
They are fooling themselves into thinking there's some predictable patterns. It's all hogwash. Half the time they just make up crap as they go pretending there's a method to their madness.
Don't be giving away Axel's secrets for free, you'll piss him off! ;-)
Quote: AxelWolfA monkey can play baccarat just as good as anyone else.
Haha. You give monkeys too much credit.
Quote: AxelWolfAll the baccarat system players are just making the easiest casino game complicated.
Hmmm.. I don't have a system. It sounds like you didn't watch the live stream nor the archived video. I admitted on the live stream it's just anecdotal evidence.
Quote: AxelWolfThey are fooling themselves into thinking there's some predictable patterns. It's all hogwash. Half the time they just make up crap as they go pretending there's a method to their madness.
Uh, definitely sounds like you didn't watch before giving your opinion. Hahah. It's cool.
I agree with you to an extent. Had you tuned to the show, you would've seen me miss out on some patterns because I was overthinking. The way I play is not reading patterns or predicting them. It's whatever I can use to give me some kind of idea what to bet. But to your point, regardless of what I think the table is pointing toward, it's still close to a coin toss.
I think I'll do a few more videos to see where this goes and I hope you'll watch at least one of them to see that what I typically do is waiting and attempting to manage money well during the game.
Quote: AxelWolf
So people are going to learn how to guess from you using fake money?
Uh... yes? It's a guessing game after all so why not learn how to make better guesses? Hahaha!
As for the use of fake money, yea... that's not the best way to show people how to play. When real money is on the line, the mental side of gambling becomes much more difficult. For what it's worth, I did make bets imitating real money play. There were opportunities where I could've shoved big bets in, but I didn't.
SPOILER ALERT: There is no video.
Instead, please enjoy the following book on the Ultimate Baccarat Strategy. This book will be available as long as this site exists.
The Ultimate Baccarat Strategy:
Chapter 1: Banker v. Player v. Tie
Page 1: Bet Banker.
Chapter 2: Pattern Detection
Page 2: Bet Banker.
Chapter 3: Advanced Pattern Detection
Page 3: Bet Banker.
Chapter 4: When to Bet Tie
Page 4: Never. Bet Banker.
Chapter 5: Streak Play
Page 5: You bet Banker. What do you not understand? Banker has the lowest House Edge and Baccarat is essentially uncountable.
The End. Thank you for reading.
*actually make that excruciatingly low, like Marianas Trench low
Quote: Mission146Please watch my video on the Ultimate Baccarat Strategy.
SPOILER ALERT: There is no video.
Instead, please enjoy the following book on the Ultimate Baccarat Strategy. This book will be available as long as this site exists.
The Ultimate Baccarat Strategy:
Chapter 1: Banker v. Player v. Tie
Page 1: Bet Banker.
Chapter 2: Pattern Detection
Page 2: Bet Banker.
Chapter 3: Advanced Pattern Detection
Page 3: Bet Banker.
Chapter 4: When to Bet Tie
Page 4: Never. Bet Banker.
Chapter 5: Streak Play
Page 5: You bet Banker. What do you not understand? Banker has the lowest House Edge and Baccarat is essentially uncountable.
The End. Thank you for reading.
=D Whatever! I did come with a video, a live stream even and I didn't try to sell any ultimate Bac strategy. The live stream showed I tried to play both sides, made mistakes, and missed out on some opportunities too. What I tried to relay in the live stream were patience and money management, not patterns. If patterns were the point, I would NOT have missed the opportunities I missed while playing.
edit: grammar fixes
Quote: odiousgambitWhat little bit of baccarat I have played I managed to make fun by toying with the streaks. For me, though, the problem with the game is that I am a flat bettor and the variance is too low* with this game IMO.
*actually make that excruciatingly low, like Marianas Trench low
Look up "baccarat, how to up and pull". I think you'd like that more. Up-and-pulling on streaks is less stressful on the mind. And if the streak is long, you end up winning more than flat betting. If you're the type of player waiting for streaks to win the bulk of your money then you should definitely up-and-pull.
Quote: chancekamariQuote: odiousgambitWhat little bit of baccarat I have played I managed to make fun by toying with the streaks. For me, though, the problem with the game is that I am a flat bettor and the variance is too low* with this game IMO.
*actually make that excruciatingly low, like Marianas Trench low
Look up "baccarat, how to up and pull". I think you'd like that more. Up-and-pulling on streaks is less stressful on the mind. And if the streak is long, you end up winning more than flat betting. If you're the type of player waiting for streaks to win the bulk of your money then you should definitely up-and-pull.
For a guy not trying to sell a system, you use an awful lot of system lingo. What is your point in posting any of this? I genuinely don't get it. There's very little audience here for watching a guy with "very little experience" play a simulator. And none at all for a vague system.
PLAYER 4 LIFEQuote: Mission146Please watch my video on the Ultimate Baccarat Strategy.
SPOILER ALERT: There is no video.
Instead, please enjoy the following book on the Ultimate Baccarat Strategy. This book will be available as long as this site exists.
The Ultimate Baccarat Strategy:
Chapter 1: Banker v. Player v. Tie
Page 1: Bet Banker.
Chapter 2: Pattern Detection
Page 2: Bet Banker.
Chapter 3: Advanced Pattern Detection
Page 3: Bet Banker.
Chapter 4: When to Bet Tie
Page 4: Never. Bet Banker.
Chapter 5: Streak Play
Page 5: You bet Banker. What do you not understand? Banker has the lowest House Edge and Baccarat is essentially uncountable.
The End. Thank you for reading.
Quote: beachbumbabsFor a guy not trying to sell a system, you use an awful lot of system lingo.
Actually, up-and-pull is pretty standard among serious gamblers. It's not a system nor system-specific term. It's basic stuff, not meant to help you win hands.
Quote: beachbumbabsWhat is your point in posting any of this?
To contribute and discuss, the same as everyone else posting about Poker, Blackjack, etc.
Quote: beachbumbabsI genuinely don't get it.
Maybe you're skeptical because there are so many scammers out there? And that's one of the reasons I made this thread, to post something different.
Scammers are afraid to make videos, especially live stream. I started with live stream in my first topic. MMMmmmkay?
Quote: beachbumbabsThere's very little audience here for watching a guy with "very little experience" play a simulator.
Very little experience? Lol!!! I'll let that one go. My high pitch voice and stuttering attempts at explaining my thought process in the live stream might come across as total bull, but for experienced Bac players out there, real recognize real.
Quote: beachbumbabsAnd none at all for a vague system.
If there's no audience for a vague system then we have no problem here right?
You guys are funny. You don't want people scamming others, selling "ultimate system" b.s. You also don't want people posting alternative topics with real merit like this one. Why not just ban Baccarat discussions?
And bruh, don't diss the simulator! In my experience, the simulator is harder to play. In real games, you get about 60 hands for 6-deck tables and 75 for 8-decks. 75 hands per table is hard enough to pace yourself. The simulator averages 80 to 82 hands per table.
You can talk systems in the appropriate Sub-Forum to your heart's content.
Bet Banker.
Quote: WizardofnothingI'll type this in all caps to get my point across. WHAT KIND OF BET COULD YOU HAVE MISSED.... There is nothing that happened the hand before or ten before that could POSSIBLE MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE ON WHAT YOU ARE BETTING NEXT. When I do play with promo chips I look for tables with no electronic score card/ them I make all the wrong records and let whoever sits down see the results of previous hands knowing that are completely wrong, Do you know what happens? The exact same thing as if they were accurate !!!!!!
For the 1st game of the live stream, I played only 6 hands. The total # of hands was at least 80. Playing less than 10% of hands at a good looking table, of course I missed out on some opportunities. And that's because I was not focused on playing patterns like people accused me of doing. Had you watched the video, you would've saw that.
Quote: chancekamariFor the 1st game of the live stream, I played only 6 hands. The total # of hands was at least 80. Playing less than 10% of hands at a good looking table, of course I missed out on some opportunities. And that's because I was not focused on playing patterns like people accused me of doing. Had you watched the video, you would've saw that.
I see that another new member has gotten the all too common WOV "welcome". It's a tough crowd if they don't like what you have to say. Whatcha gonna do when they come for you? Just ignore them.
Allow me to sincerely welcome you to the forum, chancekamari.
Quote: 1BBI see that another new member has gotten the all too common WOV "welcome". It's a tough crowd if they don't like what you have to say. Whatcha gonna do when they come for you? Just ignore them.
Allow me to sincerely welcome you to the forum, chancekamari.
Thx BB. Got no problem with the common WOV welcome. New members need backbones to stick around =)
Can you explain how you're system/method/guessing or whatever can help anyone?Quote: chancekamari
You're just making guessing more complicated.
You claim you missed out on some opportunities, no doubt after the fact.
Money management? You mean conserve money? Someone with absolutely no baccarat experience can do the exact same thing you're doing.
The way you're talking insinuates that you have a better way to play baccarat than a random person, but that's absolutely not true.
Do you believe you can beat baccarat long term?
I would love to watch if you were betting real money at $25 min online.
Quote: chancekamariFor the 1st game of the live stream, I played only 6 hands. The total # of hands was at least 80. Playing less than 10% of hands at a good looking table, of course I missed out on some opportunities. And that's because I was not focused on playing patterns like people accused me of doing. Had you watched the video, you would've saw that.
Well, my options were to watch the video or do literally anything else on Earth; the latter option appealed to me more.
Quote: AxelWolfCan you explain how you're system/method/guessing or whatever can help anyone? You're just making guessing more complicated.
Bet on what you want to bet. I was simply explaining my own thought process. I didn't make the video to help people read patterns. And in explaining my thought process, a lot of it was explaining why I made certain bet amounts at certain times to manage my money.
Quote: AxelWolfYou claim you missed out on some opportunities, no doubt after the fact.
No, I didn't claim it after the fact. A lot of people try to make themselves look smart by pointing at stuff that already happened. I didn't do that. There were moments during the live stream where I called out for things ahead of time and explained the reason why I did not bet on those opportunities despite believing they were winners.
Quote: AxelWolfMoney management? You mean conserve money? Someone with absolutely no baccarat experience can do the exact same thing you're doing.
Your claim sounds correct, but it doesn't play out that way when people gamble. Conserving money is a part of it, but also how/when to push aggressively. You guys are nitpicking me despite not watching my live stream nor the archived video.
Quote: AxelWolfThe way you're talking insinuates that you have a better way to play baccarat than a random person, but that's absolutely not true.
I do and it is true. Just because you can't beat it doesn't mean others can't beat it or haven't already. Think about gambling in general. What makes someone a big loser instead of a small loser? 1) Patience 2) whether they play on tilt 3) discipline 4) walking away when you're ahead by 10 to 20%.
What helps you become less of a loser can help you become a winner. People claim Baccarat is not a game of skill, but I say it is. Patience is a skill and it helps you lose less. Discipline is also a skill. I think those incalculable factors are just as important in the grand scheme of Baccarat. Just because you can't mathematically calculate with them doesn't mean they aren't a part of the equation.
Quote: AxelWolfDo you believe you can beat baccarat long term?
Yes. Otherwise, I wouldn't even play for fun. I don't gamble for the entertainment.
Quote: AxelWolfI would love to watch if you were betting real money at $25 min online.
I would like to set that up as well and not get in trouble in the process. To the point that you made earlier, showing people how to play with fake money is just not the same and I agree. Like I said before, I'm a US player. Making it known that you do play online is bad enough. Streaming it is really ballsy. That's what puzzling to me about poker live streams. Do they just not care or are they from foreign countries?
Beyond the US laws, I worry about my account's security. At some point, my account ID# is going to be known or what if I fuck up and flash the URL of a live session for a second. I've heard of people in other games getting hacked that way -- exposing the live session URL to the general public.
I play with live dealers, exclusively at a certain site. I don't wanna name it here because others will accuse me of trying to promote it. Anyway, my point is for those that know of the site I'm talking about, you know their live dealer window makes it really hard to hide personal info. If I crop the live stream to a space small enough to hide my info, it would be too small and you won't understand things I'd try to explain while playing.
Quote: Mission146Well, my options were to watch the video or do literally anything else on Earth; the latter option appealed to me more.
Sarcastic for no reason. Cool. As long as I know your reason for replying. Personally, I wouldn't criticize people before understanding what they're saying because I don't wanna be a D***.
Quote: chancekamariWhat makes someone a big loser instead of a small loser? 1) Patience 2) whether they play on tilt 3) discipline 4) walking away when you're ahead by 10 to 20%.
wow, you hit on exactly the same reasons the Wizard gives!! [not]
yes, that was sarcastic and so why would I do that? Because your posts are a great big fat juicy target, and I can't help myself
PS: They say Success is the best revenge, so if you find this sarcasm etc very irritating just plop yourself down at a real baccarat table and start to clean up, laughing your butt off at the stupidity of those who would not pay attention to how well you did at your simulation
Quote: WizardofnothingHere comes the ban hammer - personal insult lol
could be ... but I directed sarcasm [to use his word] at his *comments* - not him personally, you might note
Quote: odiousgambitcould be ... but I directed sarcasm [to use his word] at his *comments* - not him personally, you might note
I believe WoN was referring to a previous post, hard to tell though.
First typed that as reefering, by accident, chuckled and fixed it...
Quote: WizardofnothingHere comes the ban hammer - personal insult lol
There's no way I'd ban him for that, in fact, I even did him one better by throwing a few asterisks in the last word so he'd be compliant with Keep it PG.
Besides that, of course I was being sarcastic.
Sarcasm is best delivered from a position of assured superiority, (as relates the subject matter, not the person) so I found it prudent to flippantly dismiss any claim as to the ability to beat Baccarat in this manner.
Quote: Mission146There's no way I'd ban him for that, in fact, I even did him one better by throwing a few asterisks in the last word so he'd be compliant with Keep it PG.
Besides that, of course I was being sarcastic.
Sarcasm is best delivered from a position of assured superiority, (as relates the subject matter, not the person) so I found it prudent to flippantly dismiss any claim as to the ability to beat Baccarat in this manner.
Ah, thank you for that. I didn't know we had to keep it PG. Sorry. As for believing your understanding of the game is superior, lol. Just because Bac involves more chance than Poker doesn't automatically disqualify it as a game of skill. The two doesn't have to be mutually exclusive.
In terms of the WoO game, it recalculates the running House Edge after every hand. No skill required. The best bet is the one that has the lowest HE at that moment, and will still typically (but not always) be Banker.
Adding on to my most recent reply, Baccarat isn't a winner take all tournament. You don't need to take 1st place to be a profitable player. First place winner in Bac will always be the long term negative expectation. However, continuing with the tournament analogy, 2nd place, 3rd place, and so on can still be profitable. And how I see it, profiting from the game equals beating it. You don't need a 100% win rate.
My main problem with the wizards of the world is they dismiss Bac based on math alone. All attempts at beating Bac through math and scammy systems have been focused on gaining 1st place (or defeating negative expectation). You don't need to do that to make a profit.
And here's a different analogy. Negative expectation to Bac players is what the sun is to people in general. It's around us all the time. Too much sun exposure leads to dark tans, sun spots, sun burns, and possibly skin cancer. However, limiting your exposure to it can yield different results. If you're smart, you'd put on sunscreen and find shade.
There are multiple ways to find shade (or limit exposure to negative expectation in Bac). This goes back to my point regarding what makes someone a big or small loser. The main two factors are patience and not playing on tilt. Besides those two, money management and aggressiveness with the right timing also have huge impact on the outcome.
Some people claim that focusing on short term wins and quitting while you're ahead isn't realistic. It's because a Bac player's life is one long session and eventually he/she would lose it all back to negative expectation. Well, I disagree. Yes, you will lose some back, but not all of it. Going back to avoiding the sun analogy, if I focus my life on getting as much shade as possible with every chance I get, my life long session of avoiding the sun would be significantly different from yours.
Quote: chancekamariIn the live stream, it clearly showed I never used the simulator's stats page for support. I didn't know that was a feature until you pointed that out.
Adding on to my most recent reply, Baccarat isn't a winner take all tournament. You don't need to take 1st place to be a profitable player. First place winner in Bac will always be the long term negative expectation. However, continuing with the tournament analogy, 2nd place, 3rd place, and so on can still be profitable. And how I see it, profiting from the game equals beating it. You don't need a 100% win rate.
My main problem with the wizards of the world is they dismiss Bac based on math alone. All attempts at beating Bac through math and scammy systems have been focused on gaining 1st place (or defeating negative expectation). You don't need to do that to make a profit.
And here's a different analogy. Negative expectation to Bac players is what the sun is to people in general. It's around us all the time. Too much sun exposure leads to dark tans, sun spots, sun burns, and possibly skin cancer. However, limiting your exposure to it can yield different results. If you're smart, you'd put on sunscreen and find shade.
There are multiple ways to find shade (or limit exposure to negative expectation in Bac). This goes back to my point regarding what makes someone a big or small loser. The main two factors are patience and not playing on tilt. Besides those two, money management and aggressiveness with the right timing also have huge impact on the outcome.
Some people claim that focusing on short term wins and quitting while you're ahead isn't realistic. It's because a Bac player's life is one long session and eventually he/she would lose it all back to negative expectation. Well, I disagree. Yes, you will lose some back, but not all of it. Going back to avoiding the sun analogy, if I focus my life on getting as much shade as possible with every chance I get, my life long session of avoiding the sun would be significantly different from yours.
If you were given a long enough life cancer would eventually kill you unless you die of something else first.
Baccarat is just like cancer... if you play long enough eventually you WILL LOSE.
I'm certain the true odds will eventually catch up with you.
Take the challenge it's extra money and you'll be rich.
Quote: chancekamariMy main problem with the wizards of the world is they dismiss Bac based on math alone. All attempts at beating Bac through math and scammy systems have been focused on gaining 1st place (or defeating negative expectation). You don't need to do that to make a profit.
Read that statement again and distill for me what you mean that doesn't sound screwy. Really. Doing it myself I get "scholarship on baccarat gambling has said expect to lose in the long run, however, you can lose money and make a profit"
Well, sir, you have our attention [I think] because you seem like a fairly nice guy and you seem to sincerely believe what you are saying. Sometimes we get somebody on here who is only pretending to believe what they are stating and are actually doing it to be amused at the reaction. I think I can tell the difference.
It infuriates some people to see the sort of thing you are asserting, member Teliot comes to mind; others are just weary of it, Wizard comes to mind. And as you can tell, anybody who is not on board with your thinking is tempted to be sarcastic, myself included. I don't think you realize how bold it is to come on here and assert what you have on a site that is largely about dismissing ideas about gambling not derived from math or science.
One thing that has been found to be true is that we will never convince you that your approach to gambling is in error. To paraphrase the Wizard, "in all things, the more unfounded a belief is the more tenaciously it tends to be held." I hold out no hope that you would be different. Sad to say, eventually I expect you will come to a point where you just don't contribute or come here anymore. If you want to surprise me, I'd say your best bet is to quit asserting things here until you know where others are coming from, and to go to Wizardofodds.com and bone up there with all the FAQs and other material would be the way to do it.
Quote: WizardofnothingAre you able to find a pattern when flipping the quarters?
Speaking of coin tosses:
These are the results for the last eighteen Super Bowl coin tosses:
T T T T H T T T T H T H H H H H T T
The NFC didn't make every call, but they won 14 straight and 16 of the last 18 coin tosses.
Currently, the Patriots have won 19 of their last 26 coin tosses.
Super Bowl Coin Toss Betting
Quote: WizardofnothingGreat, it's easy to pick a pattern after the fact -
This has nothing to do with patterns.
If the NFC made half of those calls, then they won betting against the pattern on at least three occasions.
I mentioned the results because they've won 89% of the past 18 coin tosses.
Pure luck.
I'm more interested in New England's 19 for 26.
Quote: TankoThis has nothing to do with patterns.
I mentioned the results because they've won 89% of the past 18 coin tosses.
Pure luck.
I'm more interested in New England's 19 for 26.
Deflated coins?
Quote: odiousgambitRead that statement again and distill for me what you mean that doesn't sound screwy. Really. Doing it myself I get "scholarship on baccarat gambling has said expect to lose in the long run, however, you can lose money and make a profit"
Long term negative expectation says you will lose all that you've won and some of your own money by the end of your life time. My point is that doesn't have to be true for everyone, especially for players focusing on short term wins and managing their money well. You can be exposed to the sun intermittenly and not get cancer just like intermittent exposure to negative expectation doesn't lead to losing the life-long battle.
A) Playing on tilt would lose more money over the course of a life time -- what separates big losers from small loser.
B) Flat betting every hand, meaning completely exposing yourself to the Law of Large Numbers, will yield the typical outcome of a negative expectation equation.
C) What most people don't consider is someone who knows what they're doing can be patient and push aggressively with the house's money to win, again and again over the course of a life time. There will be losses, but what's more important is there will be profit by the end of it.
Bac isn't about defeating negative expectation or else total failure. There's a spectrum of outcomes.
Quote: odiousgambitIt infuriates some people to see the sort of thing you are asserting, member Teliot comes to mind; others are just weary of it, Wizard comes to mind. And as you can tell, anybody who is not on board with your thinking is tempted to be sarcastic, myself included. I don't think you realize how bold it is to come on here and assert what you have on a site that is largely about dismissing ideas about gambling not derived from math or science.
If I didn't see it before, I see it now =). Although my stance remains the same, math and science can't calculate for skills like patience, discipline, money management, knowing when to walk away, etc. And clearly from the live stream, although there are some scenarios I like to bet on, I am not a pattern follower so there's no mechanical system for me to preach here.
Quote: odiousgambitOne thing that has been found to be true is that we will never convince you that your approach to gambling is in error. To paraphrase the Wizard, "in all things, the more unfounded a belief is the more tenaciously it tends to be held." I hold out no hope that you would be different. Sad to say, eventually I expect you will come to a point where you just don't contribute or come here anymore. If you want to surprise me, I'd say your best bet is to quit asserting things here until you know where others are coming from, and to go to Wizardofodds.com and bone up there with all the FAQs and other material would be the way to do it.
Actually, it's harder to convince people from the math and science community and I don't blame them. Based on math alone, Bac is a finished equation. There's nothing else to it to discuss. It's like someone trying to convince you the color red isn't red.
However, the Bac equation isn't finished and Wizard's studies/claims regarding Bac are based only on calculable factors. It just takes someone to come along and prove otherwise or at least prove there are exceptions.
And yes, I've gone through the Baccarat pages on WoO, including the Q&A's quite a few times actually. I'm also familiar with:
- John Patrick's book on Baccarat
- Gambler's fallacy
- Law of Large Numbers
As you can see, my knowledge of Baccarat wasn't built on confirmation bias.
======================
For now, Bac discussions here will eventually die down, but I will come back for sure. Give me a few months to build a case. By then, I won't expect much, but digital high fives would be nice =)
Quote: WizardofnothingAre you able to find a pattern when flipping the quarters?
Bac isn't a coin flip game. For one, there's no tie in a coin flip.
Quote: WizardofnothingOh god this is going to go no where. The tie best is a terrible bet and huge -ev. So then we rule that out since there is no decided action for banker or player on a tie
What's funny is I don't use the Tie bet. Was simply pointing that details can have huge impact on the outcome. People are quick to call Bac a coin flip game just like they're quick to dismiss incalculable factors like patience.
Devil's advocate here, from a math-based point of view, even 1% house edge matters. Why would you overlook the huge difference between the 50% nature of a unbiased coin flip versus 46% at best in Bac? Just because a Bac hand result in a tie and no money was lost doesn't mean there was no opportunity cost.
Quote: WizardofnothingThe sky is blue. Lets debate..... You are MAKING ZERO SENSE. You can sit out debate keep charts change bets you still cannot make bac anything but a negative expectation game
lmao. Let's not. I'm laughing because I used "the color red is red" as an example, two replies earlier. Go back and read that. Possibly, I'm making zero sense because you don't bother to even attempt at understanding. Instead, you're posting knee jerk replies.
Quote: chancekamariLong term negative expectation says you will lose all that you've won and some of your own money by the end of your life time. My point is that doesn't have to be true for everyone, especially for players focusing on short term wins and managing their money well. You can be exposed to the sun intermittenly and not get cancer just like intermittent exposure to negative expectation doesn't lead to losing the life-long battle.
A) Playing on tilt would lose more money over the course of a life time -- what separates big losers from small loser.
B) Flat betting every hand, meaning completely exposing yourself to the Law of Large Numbers, will yield the typical outcome of a negative expectation equation.
C) What most people don't consider is someone who knows what they're doing can be patient and push aggressively with the house's money to win, again and again over the course of a life time. There will be losses, but what's more important is there will be profit by the end of it.
Bac isn't about defeating negative expectation or else total failure. There's a spectrum of outcomes.
If I didn't see it before, I see it now =). Although my stance remains the same, math and science can't calculate for skills like patience, discipline, money management, knowing when to walk away, etc. And clearly from the live stream, although there are some scenarios I like to bet on, I am not a pattern follower so there's no mechanical system for me to preach here.
Actually, it's harder to convince people from the math and science community and I don't blame them. Based on math alone, Bac is a finished equation. There's nothing else to it to discuss. It's like someone trying to convince you the color red isn't red.
However, the Bac equation isn't finished and Wizard's studies/claims regarding Bac are based only on calculable factors. It just takes someone to come along and prove otherwise or at least prove there are exceptions.
And yes, I've gone through the Baccarat pages on WoO, including the Q&A's quite a few times actually. I'm also familiar with:
- John Patrick's book on Baccarat
- Gambler's fallacy
- Law of Large Numbers
As you can see, my knowledge of Baccarat wasn't built on confirmation bias.
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For now, Bac discussions here will eventually die down, but I will come back for sure. Give me a few months to build a case. By then, I won't expect much, but digital high fives would be nice =)
Your first paragraph was correct. You may not get cancer from sun exposure but more time in the sun increases your chances. You may not lose much or even profit after a few dozen baccarat sessions, but more time playing will increase your chances of losing.
In responding to point A: the only way one could go on tilt is betting more or not betting banker. Those would both lose you more money.
In responding to point B: statistics works regardless of the size of your bet. Betting more won't "break free" of the Law of Large Numbers; it just means you lose more faster.
In responding to point C: As much as patience and being aggressive can be useful in certain situations, baccarat is not one of them. Regardless of how much you bet, what you bet on, how long you stand around a game, what day it is, if you have your lucky boxers on or not, you will lose after a long enough period of time with your suggestions.
You seem to be optimistic, kind and determined. All excellent qualities. However, unfortunately these things won't surpass the house edge to make you money long term. If you don't surpass the house edge, you won't be profitable.
My suggestion to you is this. If you play baccarat for money start an excel spreadsheet. Record the date you played, the amount of time you played for and your profit our loss amount. If you play this weekly for a decent amount of time, you will eventually see the decline. Best of luck.
