When do you stop betting on banker?

So this isn't a question for a craps player who can "read variance". This question is for mathy people who are also unavoidably human.

My local online Casino (Mohegan Sun) is super generous with loss back offers. At least once a week and often more I get offers ranging from 15-25%. When they allow table games, I take advantage by placing a single large bet on banker. EZ +EV.

Now I know the lowest edge is the banker bet. I know it's better than the player bet.

My question is, how many lost banker bets do you take before the human in you switches to player bet?

So far I've lost 12/15. I mean, I get this isn't an insane swing. I get that, but what is the number or ratio for you? When does your distrust for the casino or just pattern recognition circuits just take over?

Quote: MDawg

1) What are the odds of getting a 20 Bank or Player run in a Baccarat shoe?

2) What are the odds of getting a 21 Bank or Player run in a Baccarat shoe?

3) What are the odds of getting a 22 Bank or Player run in a Baccarat shoe?

4) What are the odds of getting one of the above and clearing 7 figures on the run (MDawg has now done this), with the net win for the session being 7 figures.

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Quote: BrestGrambler

So this isn't a question for a craps player who can "read variance". This question is for mathy people who are also unavoidably human.

My local online Casino (Mohegan Sun) is super generous with loss back offers. At least once a week and often more I get offers ranging from 15-25%. When they allow table games, I take advantage by placing a single large bet on banker. EZ +EV.

Now I know the lowest edge is the banker bet. I know it's better than the player bet.

My question is, how many lost banker bets do you take before the human in you switches to player bet?

So far I've lost 12/15. I mean, I get this isn't an insane swing. I get that, but what is the number or ratio for you? When does your distrust for the casino or just pattern recognition circuits just take over?
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When I bet either Banker or Player (at a real table) it's a small amount and it's for cover. So I'll bet both, but EV is EV and the Banker bet being a little better (usually) I'll create reasons to keep playing it.

Either: "Yeah, Banker's on a run!"

Or: "Banker is way overdue!"

For I always distrust casinos and recognize patterns, but that does not change the way I play. Why would it?

I'd say some players are quick to vanish from a place where they lose 3 to 5 in a row of anything.
If you're hoping to win 10 in a row, you've got to expect to lose 10 in a row too.
I might look at how I'm doing halfway through a shoe and switch sides if the shoe could turn the other way and I could win on it. Say I'm up 15 hands on Player at the halfway point, I'd switch sides to Banker and try to win another 15 ahead before the end of the shoe.

My favorite baccarat experience was a tournament over at Palace Station... I managed to get 0/10, starting with banker and just switching whenever I felt like it was an exercise in futility.

I think you guys have been tricked here

This is an AI question… and the tell here is that the “person” opened up with a bacc question but also opened up the question being confused and said something about craps…

AI is at the point where it can bro out and be 100% undetectable

Haha, I get where you're coming from—AI is definitely getting wild with how natural it can sound. But honestly, I’ve seen plenty of real people (especially newer gamblers) mix up games like baccarat and craps in the same breath. The casino floor can be overwhelming, and the names alone can blend together if you're not familiar.

That said, you're right—AI can bro out now, and it’s only going to get harder to tell. Gotta stay sharp out here, whether you're playing the games or reading the forums!

_________

;)

Eh, it made sense to me-- other than baccarat, the only other major games that come to mind that allow playing multiple 'sides' where a hypothetical astute(prescient) player could switch back and forth is craps and roulette.

On the other hand, I'm allegedly half-bot and half-scam, so perhaps I just read things a tad differently.

Quote: heatmap

I think you guys have been tricked here

This is an AI question… and the tell here is that the “person” opened up with a bacc question but also opened up the question being confused and said something about craps…

AI is at the point where it can bro out and be 100% undetectable
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I am not inclined to agree. (I do not think AI-brobot is involved here.)

Quote: BrestGrambler

So this isn't a question for a craps player who can "read variance". This question is for mathy people who are also unavoidably human.

My local online Casino (Mohegan Sun) is super generous with loss back offers. At least once a week and often more I get offers ranging from 15-25%. When they allow table games, I take advantage by placing a single large bet on banker. EZ +EV.

Now I know the lowest edge is the banker bet. I know it's better than the player bet.

My question is, how many lost banker bets do you take before the human in you switches to player bet?

So far I've lost 12/15. I mean, I get this isn't an insane swing. I get that, but what is the number or ratio for you? When does your distrust for the casino or just pattern recognition circuits just take over?
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Is this a loss rebate, or just mailing offers in free-play/ free-bets/table-play they send that seem to be 15-25%? If it's a rebate, what's the maximum rebate they give you? If it's free-play/ free-bets/table-play what do the offers top out at?

FYI if you have a choice of games you can play, baccarat wouldn't be your best choice.

If your reasons for making the bet wefre valid, there is no reason to stop just because you lost. If banker is a better bet than player, you bet banker. Four or five losses in a row doesn't make the player a better bet.

Loss rebates for online play. Last one was 25% up to 50 bucks.

Bet: $200 on Banker
Win outcome: +$190 (after 5% commission)
Loss outcome: -$150 net (you lose $200, get $50 back in bonus)
Banker win probability (excluding ties): ≈ 0.5068
Banker loss probability (excluding ties): ≈ 0.4932

EV = (0.5068 × 190) + (0.4932 × -150)
EV = 96.292 - 73.98
EV = $22.31

It's actually a bit less than this because you have to play bonus through 1x. I do that with JoB low denom multi hand so there is a loss of .5% EV and very low variance on the playthrough.

What's better EV than the bet above?

I did consider using a martingale strategy to increase winning sessions on these but because it can increase the amount wagered over the lossback cap, it actually reduces ev on the play. At least how I understand it.

Quote: billryan

If your reasons for making the bet wefre valid, there is no reason to stop just because you lost. If banker is a better bet than player, you bet banker. Four or five losses in a row doesn't make the player a better bet.
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I don't disagree at all! I do appreciate the validation here.

But there HAS to be a number where you all are like, f*CK this. Like 100 banker wins.? Maybe at that point we call the gaming commission instead of switching to player?

Edit to quote

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: BrestGrambler

So this isn't a question for a craps player who can "read variance". This question is for mathy people who are also unavoidably human.

My local online Casino (Mohegan Sun) is super generous with loss back offers. At least once a week and often more I get offers ranging from 15-25%. When they allow table games, I take advantage by placing a single large bet on banker. EZ +EV.

Now I know the lowest edge is the banker bet. I know it's better than the player bet.

My question is, how many lost banker bets do you take before the human in you switches to player bet?

So far I've lost 12/15. I mean, I get this isn't an insane swing. I get that, but what is the number or ratio for you? When does your distrust for the casino or just pattern recognition circuits just take over?
link to original post

When I bet either Banker or Player (at a real table) it's a small amount and it's for cover. So I'll bet both, but EV is EV and the Banker bet being a little better (usually) I'll create reasons to keep playing it.

Either: "Yeah, Banker's on a run!"

Or: "Banker is way overdue!"

For I always distrust casinos and recognize patterns, but that does not change the way I play. Why would it?
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I love this.

I mostly play poker. This feels a lot when I say or agree to the statement "can't win if you don't play" to encourage people to over call.

There is maybe nothing that gives me more joy than convincing a poker table that "8s are hot". It's amazing how easy it is, and how much it can encourage bad play.

Quote: BrestGrambler

What's better EV than the bet above?

I dont know what games it's good on and what the paybacks are. But you want to look for long shots to get closer to the full value. I.g. Think betting one time on a single number on a single zero roulette game. ld

High-denomination VP might even be good.

Single zero has a house edge of 2.7% and pays 1:1 like bacc (roughly)

But VP presents an interesting option with such a low house edge!

The way I understand it, to limit playthrough and gain full value from the the loss back (you want to win or lose everything quick so you don't rebet the same money) it would be my total wager in one spin. For the 15% promos I usually bet 100, 200 for the 25% promos.

Unfortunately $100 spins put me in hand pay territory for quads. My casino will report any machine wins over 1200. Uncle Sam would kill my equity here. I mean they don't happen that often but nothing would ruin the thrill of quads more than knowing the edge I had was neutralized by THE MAN.

Hmmm...wouldn't make sense to mitigate this with multiplay either because that would often result in less than total loss on the first wager.

I used to like betting 2 numbers on keno when it would pay 15 to 1 and even that was a bad HA. The only thing similar would be betting a split on the roulette table that pays 17 to 1. But it's a big waste of time as a keno machine is very fast and a roulette table is so slow. Betting the yo on the craps table pays 15 to 1 with a bad HA but is similarly slow.

Quote: BrestGrambler

Single zero has a house edge of 2.7% and pays 1:1 like bacc (roughly)

But VP presents an interesting option with such a low house edge!

The way I understand it, to limit playthrough and gain full value from the the loss back (you want to win or lose everything quick so you don't rebet the same money) it would be my total wager in one spin. For the 15% promos I usually bet 100, 200 for the 25% promos.

Unfortunately $100 spins put me in hand pay territory for quads. My casino will report any machine wins over 1200. Uncle Sam would kill my equity here. I mean they don't happen that often but nothing would ruin the thrill of quads more than knowing the edge I had was neutralized by THE MAN.

Hmmm...wouldn't make sense to mitigate this with multiplay either because that would often result in less than total loss on the first wager.
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Axel was recommending betting a single number on roulette not an even money bet.

Ohhh gotcha. Still 2.7% but this is is a good strategy for maximizing EV of free bets right? Because your loss is always zero and 35:1 get you closer to the free bet amount in EV. So that works the same for Lossback? My brain is now broken.

For the loss back, less optimal as again it would put me in taxable territory. The limit is even lower for table games: $600 win, less the original bet.

Quote: BrestGrambler

Ohhh gotcha. Still 2.7% but this is is a good strategy for maximizing EV of free bets right? Because your loss is always zero and 35:1 get you closer to the free bet amount in EV. So that works the same for Lossback? My brain is now broken.

For the loss back, less optimal as again it would put me in taxable territory. The limit is even lower for table games: $600 win, less the original bet.
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Hang on.
You said this is an online casino, right?
So it's got to be considered as an ETG (machine) for taxables, not a "table game".

Quote: BrestGrambler

Ohhh gotcha. Still 2.7% but this is is a good strategy for maximizing EV of free bets right? Because your loss is always zero and 35:1 get you closer to the free bet amount in EV. So that works the same for Lossback? My brain is now broken.

For the loss back, less optimal as again it would put me in taxable territory. The limit is even lower for table games: $600 win, less the original bet.
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You did the bacc math above. Try it with the 35:1 1/36 of the time.

Quote: BrestGrambler

Single zero has a house edge of 2.7% and pays 1:1 like bacc (roughly)

But VP presents an interesting option with such a low house edge!

The way I understand it, to limit playthrough and gain full value from the the loss back (you want to win or lose everything quick so you don't rebet the same money) it would be my total wager in one spin. For the 15% promos I usually bet 100, 200 for the 25% promos.

Unfortunately $100 spins put me in hand pay territory for quads. My casino will report any machine wins over 1200. Uncle Sam would kill my equity here. I mean they don't happen that often but nothing would ruin the thrill of quads more than knowing the edge I had was neutralized by THE MAN.

Hmmm...wouldn't make sense to mitigate this with multiplay either because that would often result in less than total loss on the first wager.
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Like I said, I don't know what the rules are or what games they have and are elgibale.

I don't know what your personal risk tolerance is and I don't know how a taxable will affect you.

That said, you don't have to bet a single number for an amount that will generate a taxable situation. There are other bets and games where you can tailor your bets to fit your situation and maximize your EV within your given parameters.

The main point I'm trying to make is...longer shots are usually better than even money bets when it comes to loss rebates.

Quote: unJon

Axel was recommending betting a single number on roulette not an even money bet.
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Quote: AxelWolf

Like I said, I don't know what the rules are or what games they have and are elgibale.

I don't know what your personal risk tolerance is and I don't know how a taxable will affect you.

That said, you don't have to bet a single number for an amount that will generate a taxable situation. There are other bets and games where you can tailor your bets to fit your situation and maximize your EV within your given parameters.

The main point I'm trying to make is...longer shots are usually better than even money bets when it comes to loss rebates.
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These gentlemen are absolutely correct, with the qualifications given, even money bets are NOT the best way to go with bonus money. This is one of the areas that is most counter-intuitive to gamblers.

In fact the way it usually goes in online gambling anyway is this: a player gets some freeplay money and let's even say he loves to bet where there is a big payoff. The most likely outcome is that the bet loses. So our punter's intuition kicks in and he says to himself "I've learned my lesson, those bets are too risky" ... he is going to decide that especially if the bonus money came from losing a bet... "gotta get my money back!" Alas, intuition has failed him [many decide to even bet on less than even money bets]. You have to do the math to realize he was right in the first place.

Why do I mention online gambling? Brick and mortar casinos will usually not allow bets that pay better than even! What does that tell you?

The higher payoff kind of bet you can make, the better [with bonus money, freeplay, etc., only though]. However, the variance gets to be intolerable as well. Personally, I would not make a bet on a single number in roulette with freeplay, not because Axel is wrong, but because I can't take the variance ... huge losing streaks loom. I would consider making an exception if knew I could make them over and over hundreds of times