heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 790
November 11th, 2019 at 9:34:41 PM permalink
Would it include weighted probabilities? If so is that considered fair or even random at all?
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6032
Thanks for this post from:
MichaelBluejayheatmap
November 11th, 2019 at 10:12:55 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

Would it include weighted probabilities? If so is that considered fair or even random at all?



The RNG itself? No.

But the game elements will absolutely have weighted probabilities. Look at the Wheel of Fortune Bonus wheel for example. The lowest paying slice hits much more frequently than the top slice. A RNG still determines the result though. There is just many more RNG values mapped to the lower paying prizes.

It's definitely still random. And it's fair to me at least. If all symbols had to have the same probability of hitting, the game mechanics become repetitive and possibly boring.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 1781
Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
November 11th, 2019 at 11:28:11 PM permalink
It's difficult to prove a RNG has been correctly programmed, so the RNG itself needs to create provable random numbers (say 32-bit strings with equal probability etc.) If you want to give weighting then you might turn the random numbers into a range 1 to 512 and pick A=1-10, B-11-30, etc.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 793
Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
November 12th, 2019 at 2:25:20 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

IF YOU MADE AN RNG FOR A GAME....Would it include weighted probabilities? If so is that considered fair or even random at all?

trtinglomane nailed it: You're conflating two different things, the RNG, which produces results without bias (the very definition of "random"), and the game, which can indeed include weighting.

Programmers don't "make" RNGs for games. They use one of about a dozen common algorithms that were coded long ago by other people.

One of my readers asked the age-old question, "How can a slot be random if it's programmed to return, say, 95% to the player?" The thinking is that randomness and a 95% payback are mutually exclusive when it's the opposite: the randomness is what creates the 95% payback.

I use this example: Say you pay a dollar to play a game in which you pick a ball from a bag. There are 95 black balls and 5 white balls. If you pick a black ball, you win a dollar. This is a 95% game. There's a "weighted probability" in that you're much more likely to get a black ball than a white ball, but that doesn't mean that the results aren't random.

https://easy.vegas/games/slots/random
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 790
November 12th, 2019 at 5:26:56 AM permalink
My general concern here and why i asked this is because of this...

So from what I thought I knew, which was wrong, and what I think a majority of the internet thinks is that a number is generated like so :

generate(min,max,seed){

return RAND(min,max,seed);

}

BUT what we are speaking about is something like this :

generate(min,max,seed){

x = RAND(min,max,seed); // usually this probably wouldnt be "min" or "max" but would generate a number between 0 and 1
if(x<=95){
win
}

if(x<=5){
lose
}
}

Now my concern, if you didnt see this coming is that the second algorithm, is what you are claiming is fair contains a secondary decision making process to ensure probabilities. The first RAND function call is independent. And therefore fair... But whats to stop the algorithm from going a bit further such as this

generate(min,max,seed){
x = RAND(min,max,seed);
if (player==dealer){
if(x=95){
do something else
}
}
}

the third algorithm is still random and fair because it is making the random decision first without the choice of whether or not a specific player is getting the "random" number but after that its game on....?
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 793
Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
November 12th, 2019 at 5:43:19 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

Now my concern, if you didnt see this coming is that the second algorithm, is what you are claiming is fair contains a secondary decision making process to ensure probabilities. The first RAND function call is independent. And therefore fair... But whats to stop the algorithm from going a bit further such as this

generate(min,max,seed){
x = RAND(min,max,seed);
if (player==dealer){
if(x=95){
do something else
}
}
}

the third algorithm is still random and fair because it is making the random decision first without the choice of whether or not a specific player is getting the "random" number but after that its game on....?

I'm not following you, at all.

Are you asking if it's possible that the game code, separate from the RNG, isn't fair? Sure. A number of cases have been found with online casinos over the years. The last case I heard with a physical machine was decides ago, but there might be cases I don't know about or my memory could be faulty. The Nevada Gaming Commission has its own lab and examines the source code of the games. I don't know if they look at every single game before it's approved, and it's possible they could miss something.

To have a cheating game with a proper RNG the code could do something like this:

if currentReturnToPlayer > 90% {
put false into losingNumberDrawn
repeat until losingNumberDrawn {
x = drawArandomNumber()
if x = losing then put true into losingNumberDrawn
}
}


With that pseudocode, when the player has been getting a return greater than 90%, the program keeps picking truly random numbers until a losing number is drawn.
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 790
November 12th, 2019 at 5:56:47 AM permalink
YES. THANK YOU SO MUCH. Everyone, I'll shut up for a very long time, and I apologize it took me so long to fully understand this and ill shut up.

I know they look at source code in theory, but from the standards that I am reading the gaming commission for any jurisdiction can decide whether or not to implement such regulations that ban that sort of thing. From what I understand, the secondary decision making process (the discarding of results) is mostly dealing with the scaling process of the RNG. But thats as far as I will go because I have no clue about that process or how it is implemented in any way.
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 790
November 12th, 2019 at 6:18:12 AM permalink
If you are wondering why I asked this question i was reading this standard from BMM

"Internet Random Number Generator Requirements"

https://web.archive.org/web/20070127052716/http://www.bmm.com:80/assets/industry_standards/pdf/I0101.PDF
Dobrij
Dobrij
Joined: Jun 6, 2012
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 119
Thanks for this post from:
heatmap
November 12th, 2019 at 7:46:53 AM permalink
In fact, most games do not use RNG, but use PRNG (pseudorandom number generator). To create a PRNG we need an algorithm that will generate some sequence based on a certain formula. But such a sequence can be predicted.

And what is the question, do we need to create or hack a generator?
W2B.LT
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 1781
November 12th, 2019 at 8:22:28 AM permalink
(i) I think some fruit machines have to continually ask for a random number until the next spin (or whatever) is pressed. Thus the RNG itself doesn't have to be that rigorous (but might as well be something like Mersenne as it's easy to code/copy these days).
(ii) There ARE compensated fruit machines in the UK. These tend to give fewer prizes when the machine has been paying out and more prizes when it hasn't. Typically these machines are in pubs for lower prizes (e.g. max £100). The ones in casinos, I think, have to be totally random. This topic was covered in the slot machines part of https://wizardofodds.com/blog/gambling-united-kingdom/ .

  • Jump to: