What is my best mathematical thing to do?

I recently played at an online casino and redeemed a $100 free chip. I used it to play blackjack and now I have $300.

Unfortunately the problem is max cash out for any free chip is 2x the chip, in this case $200. I couldn't help feeling like in the end I'm going to be ending up -EV because the remaining balance over $200 will be confiscated.

I still have $4000 of Wagering Requirement (aka rollover) to go and I'm not sure exactly what to do. I want to maximize my EV and I clearly see how I'm way in the danger zone for excess EV lost over $200 that will be confiscated.

I would love to bet every number on roulette, baccarat etc, slowly but safely get my balance down to $200 while finishing the rollover. Unfortunately the casino locked all such games for bonus play.

So... What's the mathematically correct thing for me to do at this point?

I'm a little confused as to what is going on. Is your $300 entirely in non-negotiable chips? If you bet the entire $300 at once and lose, do you still have to bet $3700 more (and would it be out of your pocket)? Just what games can you play, and what bets can you make?

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I'm a little confused as to what is going on. Is your $300 entirely in non-negotiable chips? If you bet the entire $300 at once and lose, do you still have to bet $3700 more (and would it be out of your pocket)? Just what games can you play, and what bets can you make?

If you bet $300 and lose, you get -300

If you bet $300 and win, you get 0 because of 200 cashout limit

You can't just cash out $200? And what's this stuff about 4k rollover or something?

Sounds too much like escaping a maze for your money with these bonus things always seeming like a scam to me.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

these bonus things always seeming like a scam to me.

these online anythings always seeming like a scam to me

Quote: Neutrino

I recently played at an online casino and redeemed a $100 free chip. I used it to play blackjack and now I have $300.
...
I still have $4000 of Wagering Requirement (aka rollover) to go and I'm not sure exactly what to do. I want to maximize my EV and I clearly see how I'm way in the danger zone for excess EV lost over $200 that will be confiscated.

That's actually a nice problem. So you can cash out 0 to $200 of your balance after play of $4000. Since you are already above the cashout limit, any significant fluctuation will hurt you.

I would choose a play with best EV and low variance. Since you say it is online, I would continue to play blackjack at minimum stake (say, $1) over the remaining $4000. You are expected to lose about $20 (0.5%) from your balance with a standard deviation of about $72 ($1.15 per sqrt(hand)).

That will give you a good aim (say 85%) at the max cashout of $200. You perform better, if you can play multi-hand blackjack for reduced variance.

Quote: odiousgambit

these online anythings always seeming like a scam to me

Not SEEM LIKE. They ARE scam, by any definition, from any one's eyes!

Guys cmon now, this is FREE chip, there's no scam here...

Quote: Neutrino

Guys cmon now, this is FREE chip, there's no scam here...

The way it was described is confusing. If he loses the $300 before he finishes his $4000 action, does he have to finish the $4000 out of his own pocket?

Back to the OP: what games can you play? I would probably say the same thing that MangoJ did, unless, say, you're allowed to play craps and can get a significant amount on odds.

We can tell no one in this thread was involved with the online casino free chip vulturing in the early 2000s.

Basically OP was given $100 for free but can not cash out any winnings before he wagers $4000. OP, in case you don't know they will take back the $100 that they gave you. Generally you can only cash out winnings so if you have $300 you would get $200.

I would just play the game with the lowest HE and then once you cash out I would do any lucky superstition that you have because actually getting paid is about a 20/80 chance.