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March 19th, 2010 at 1:08:23 AM permalink
On your 3 bad strategies, you said that playing the dealer for always having a ten valued hole card gives the house a little over a 10.0% edge.It seems like standing on a 16 against a dealers 7 would make more sense,but basic strategy says to hit.I play using basic strategy and illustrious 18 variations.I use the hi/lo counting sysytem with a 1 to 12 bet spread.(6 deck shoe).I always play the dealer for a ten valued hole card.I guess my question is,should I not be playing the dealer for a ten as a hole card all the time.

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March 19th, 2010 at 5:02:50 AM permalink
Assuming the dealer has a 10 and/or that he'll draw a 10 is a beginner's strategy. It's not a bad strategy - if that's the ONLY strategy you know. Once you get experience, and really get into it, you realize that although there are four times as many ten value cards in the deck, it's still only a 4/13 chance that the dealer has one or will draw one.

Hit 16 against a 7+? Yep. It's better than standing - but only marginally so. But it's better to surrender a 16 to a 7+ than to hit or stand. For what it's worth, if there's no surrender, I stand on 16 - unless the dealer is showing an ace. I figure with an ace, the dealer has two chances to beat my 16, so I gotta try to improve a bit.
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March 19th, 2010 at 6:46:33 AM permalink
Not so. Standing on a 16 against 7 has a EV of -.4754. Hitting has an EV of -.4148. Surrender has an EV of -.5

While it seems counterintuitive to hit a 16 on a 7, you have a 5/13 chance (38.5%) of making your hand better and a 61.5% chance of busting (EV -23.077%).

See the Wizard's Appendix 1:

With a 7 up, the dealer chances are (6D S17)

17 - .369208
18 - .137931
19 - .078428
19 - .078682
20 - .073816
Bust - .261936

The dealer only busts 26.2% of the time. You're better off with the 38.5% chance of making the hand better for yourself than letting the dealer bust 26.2% of the time.
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