rgn1980
rgn1980
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 15
Joined: Jul 1, 2012
November 8th, 2012 at 4:12:13 PM permalink
Anyone wanna do the math on odds of 11 Dealer 21s out of 30 hands?

Time Description Bet Result
19:09:36
Player Hand 19 9♠ K♠ Stand
Dealer Hand 21 8♦ 6♦ 7♣ Hit, Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:09:32
Player Hand 12 9♦ 3♠ Stand
Dealer Hand 21 9♠ 5♦ 2♦ 5♦ Hit, Hit, Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:09:24
Player Hand 19 4♥ 5♠ K♥ Hit, Stand
Dealer Hand 26 8♦ 8♥ T♦ Hit, Bust
1.00 1.00
19:09:20
Player Hand 5 3♥ 2♠
Dealer Hand 21 T♣ A♦ BlackJack
1.00 -1.00
19:09:16
Player Hand 20 J♥ K♠ Stand
Dealer Hand 20 J♣ T♠ Stand
1.00 .00
19:09:12
Player Hand 19 9♠ K♣ Stand
Dealer Hand 20 2♠ 5♣ 5♠ 2♣ 6♣ Hit, Hit, Hit, Stand
1.00 -1.00
19:09:06
Player Hand 24 8♥ 4♣ 2♦ K♦ Hit, Hit, Bust
Dealer Hand 20 K♠ K♠
1.00 -1.00
19:09:02
Player Hand 19 J♣ 9♥ Stand
Dealer Hand 25 6♠ 9♠ J♠ Hit, Bust
1.00 1.00
19:08:58
Player Hand 13 K♦ 3♦ Stand
Dealer Hand 19 5♦ 4♣ T♦ Hit, Stand
1.00 -1.00
19:08:33
Player Hand 15 5♦ T♥ Stand
Dealer Hand 21 8♦ 6♦ 7♠ Hit, Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:08:29
Player Hand 17 Q♦ 7♥ Stand
Dealer Hand 21 4♥ 7♥ T♥ Hit, Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:08:25
Player Hand 23 Q♣ 3♣ Q♣ Hit, Bust
Dealer Hand 18 8♣ Q♥
3.00 -3.00
19:08:18
Player Hand 21 5♣ 2♦ 5♠ 9♦ Hit, Hit
Dealer Hand 21 2♥ 3♦ K♣ 6♥ Hit, Hit, Stand
3.00 .00
19:08:14
Player Hand 14 4♥ K♣ Stand
Dealer Hand 24 T♥ 5♦ 9♥ Hit, Bust
3.00 3.00
19:08:07
Player Hand 18 Q♦ 2♦ 2♥ 4♥ Hit, Hit, Stand
Dealer Hand 19 A♠ 8♦ Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:08:03
Player Hand 16 T♣ 6♣ Stand
Dealer Hand 17 6♠ 2♣ 9♣ Hit, Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:07:55
Player Hand 17 T♣ 6♥ A♥ Hit, Stand
Dealer Hand 26 7♦ 8♥ A♣ K♥ Hit, Hit, Bust
1.00 1.00
19:07:51
Player Hand 19 9♦ Q♥
Dealer Hand 21 A♥ J♥ BlackJack
3.00 -3.00
19:07:47
Player Hand 18 J♠ 8♣ Stand
Dealer Hand 19 7♦ 4♣ 8♥ Hit, Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:07:43
Player Hand 17 T♣ 7♦ Stand
Dealer Hand 20 K♠ Q♣ Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:07:39
Player Hand 20 9♣ A♣ Stand
Dealer Hand 24 T♠ 5♠ 9♦ Hit, Bust
3.00 3.00
19:07:34
Player Hand 19 9♦ J♦ Stand
Dealer Hand 17 2♣ 7♣ 8♠ Hit, Stand
3.00 3.00
19:07:30
Player Hand 14 4♥ T♣ Stand
Dealer Hand 19 7♣ 2♠ K♦ Hit, Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:07:24
Player Hand 20 Q♥ J♥ Stand
Dealer Hand 19 7♦ 9♠ 3♣ Hit, Stand
1.00 1.00
19:07:20
Player Hand 24 8♦ 6♠ J♣ Hit, Bust
Dealer Hand 18 8♣ J♣
1.00 -1.00
19:07:10
Player Hand 1 20 4♥ 6♦ T♣ Double 2.00 -2.00
Player Hand 2 14 4♠ K♥ Split, Stand 1.00 -1.00
Dealer Hand 21 J♣ 6♥ 5♠ Hit, Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:07:04
Player Hand 13 4♣ 9♠ Stand
Dealer Hand 21 J♣ 5♥ 6♥ Hit, Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:06:58
Player Hand 20 Q♦ 6♣ 4♦ Hit, Stand
Dealer Hand 21 4♥ 7♠ T♠ Hit, Stand
3.00 -3.00
19:06:52
Player Hand 13 6♥ 7♥ Stand
Dealer Hand 24 9♠ 4♣ A♦ Q♦ Hit, Hit, Bust
1.00 1.00
19:06:46
Player Hand 18 7♠ A♦
Dealer Hand 21 T♠ A♣ BlackJack
3.00 -3.00
Displaying last 30 games you played.
Switch
Switch
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Joined: Apr 29, 2010
November 8th, 2012 at 4:32:22 PM permalink
What site is this?

30 hands is not a lot of play but you only received 3 Aces in the 74 cards that were dealt to you.

I'm sure someone will work out the probability of 11 or more 21's out of 30 hands ... even if it's rare you would need more results to start to conclude anything.
JB
Administrator
JB
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Joined: Oct 14, 2009
November 8th, 2012 at 5:33:32 PM permalink
With an 8-deck game where the dealer hits soft 17, the chance of 11 dealer 21s or blackjacks in 30 hands is about 1 in 2385, which isn't astronomical. A royal flush in video poker is about 1 in 40,000 and royals are hit every day.
98Clubs
98Clubs
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Joined: Jun 3, 2010
November 8th, 2012 at 6:45:18 PM permalink
Does the ratio of Dealer to Player Aces bother you... 1 in 2385 IS common enough that my eyebrow wasn't raised. That Ace ratio does bother me.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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Joined: Jan 12, 2010
November 8th, 2012 at 6:53:00 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Switch
Switch
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Joined: Apr 29, 2010
November 8th, 2012 at 7:30:51 PM permalink
Quote: 98Clubs

Does the ratio of Dealer to Player Aces bother you... 1 in 2385 IS common enough that my eyebrow wasn't raised. That Ace ratio does bother me.



The problem with the Ace ratio is that the number of hands that were recorded is too small to ever substantiate anything. I was adding that into the mix along with the dealer 21's by looking at anything that may be worth looking into over a large number of hands and the number of player Aces stood out albeit insignificant at this stage.

In fact, if you take the probability of an Ace as a constant 1/13 (for ease of calculation) then the probability of getting zero Aces in 74 cards is only 1 in 374.

The combined 0, 1, 2 or 3 Aces out of 74 cards gives a probability of around 1 in 5.9 times. Hardly astounding but if it happened 7 or 8 times in a row of 30 hands then it would start to get interesting.
Buzzard
Buzzard
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Joined: Oct 28, 2012
November 8th, 2012 at 7:32:20 PM permalink
Even money. Either it happens or it doesn't.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
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