Casino is giving me a limited time 1.3% Turnover Commission, What is the best progression to play?

There is one local casino that have anniversary promotion, giving member 1.3% weekly Turnover commission
games available:
sicbo, BJ, baccarat, dragon tiger ( cannot card counting), and roulette

the best edge is BJ, but the live BJ takes so much time for a game, so it will not be profitable because my bankroll is not big. i cannot start with larger bet units ( cannot survive variance). when i bet small, it takes so long for each game (about 2 minute per game), makes me spending so much time with not worthed earning

so the best one to play is banker bet on baccarat. i try to flat bet, but flat bet is boring.
can someone recommend me any betting progression?

I know betting progression will not overcome the edge, but now, i am at + edge. so i think there is no problem to use progression

some progression that i think is good:
1. hollandish progression (negative)
2. 1324 system

as i learn about kelly criterion progression, we are not changing the expected return in the long run. but we are maximizing our expected growth, does it also applied to betting progression?

Quote: rajarolet

There is one local casino that have anniversary promotion, giving member 1.3% weekly Turnover commission
games available:
sicbo, BJ, baccarat, dragon tiger ( cannot card counting), and roulette

See if they are dumb enough to let you simultaneously bet player/banker at baccarat. If not is there a buddy with the same promo, such that you could pool resources.

my fave progression on roughly even money wagers is 1,2,3,3,3 capped at 10% of br. You should last ages with that. depending on br scale it up such as 5,10,15,15

Your number 1 objective has to be to not lose :o)

good luck.

Hi, how to play that 123333 prog?
I cannot hedge using two account on the same promotion deal, but they are a group, which mean i can register on other site (but worse promotion 1.2%)

I have try an excel simulation for hedging the baccarat, flat bet both site, running about 1000 test hand but i receive a bad result
The banker must be win 50.6% to maximize the value of turnover commission. I will post my detailed calculation on below post (now reply by phone)

bet player with 1.3% TO (1.3%-1.24%) = +EV
bet banker with 1.2% TO (1.2%-1.06%) = +EV

i do manual calculation
banker bet prob: 0.4586
player bet prob : 0.4462
tie prob: 0.095 9048

removing the tie odds, so the banker winrate is :

0.4586 / (0.4586+0.4462) = 50.685% win rate (50.7)
so the player win rate is 49.3

i bet both side of player and banker ( banker's bet 1.05, player bet 1) x 1000 times
banker bet win = 507*1.05*0.95 = +505.73 units
banker bet lose = 493*1.05 = -517.65 units
baner bet turnover commission = 1000*1.05*0.012 = +12.6 units
player bet win = 493*1= +493 units
player bet lose = 507*1 = -507 units
player bet turnover commission = 1000*1*0.013 = +13.0 units

subtotal = -0.32 units

am i doing a wrong calc?

rajarolet,

Don't you also receive a turnover commission on rounds that result in ties?

If so, then each turnover commission will be increased by a bit over 10%, so instead of 12.6+13.0=25.6, you'll get an additional 2.56 units, which will turn your -0.32 into +2.24.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Quote: rajarolet

Hi, how to play that 123333 prog?

It's just something I do to break up the boredom of flat betting Blackjack. It's far less aggressive than Martingale. Bankroll ebbs and flows.

E.g. buy in 100
Wager 1, If that loses wager 2. If that loses, wager 3, if that loses keep wagering 3 until I have a win.
At any win, reset to wagering 1.

Or I might do it with $5 unit so it becomes 5,10,15,15,15
If I'm in the mood to wager bigger, it might be 25,50, 75,75,75 But I'm not really inclined to throw money away so dramatically, very often.

But to extend my play time, if my session roll gets depleted, I limit each wager to 10% of what i have left. Doubles and splits, I just subsidise from my back pocket reserve money as needs be.

This money management has absolutely zero monetary value. It's just about fun and breaking the boredom.

If you've found a promo that gives you back 1.3% of action, you could engineer a play that gives you low variance and a high probability of coming out ahead, but that play would necessarily be very VERY many LOW average wagers.

As your chosen progressive increases your average wager, so your probability of ending up with a loss increases and it can be quite dramatic. You could find yourself with 99% chance of losing entire bankroll, even though it's +ev. promotion.

Have fun and good luck.

@dog: tie is not counted as a valid bet because of push.

I just dont understand why i still got -EV even i receive +EV turnover rebate on both side


@oncedear: what you would bet if you win the thrid bet?
-1, -2 and +3 (BE)
Do you bet 3 or 1?

if you google 'casino turnover commission' nothing that makes sense comes up, or I am missing it? ... however, this thread *does* come up. This suggests the OP is the only one using this terminology?

Am I the only one in the dark?

Online casino in my country have several promotion for member
Deposit bonus
Daily deposit bonus
Loss rebate
Cashback / turnover rebate (commission)
Lucky bonus (random sent to active player)

I dont know if this term does not familiar worldwide, but it is an usual promotion

Online. All we need to know. Buyer beware.

The promotion is called “bonus rollingan” in my language
Still not figure out how to beat baccarat other than banker flat bet @1.3% return

I have one casino offering 1% turnover commision for baraccat.Can bet on player and banker in the same round.How do i take advantage of it?

Quote: kelvin

I have one casino offering 1% turnover commision for baraccat.Can bet on player and banker in the same round.How do i take advantage of it?

Hi, and welcome to the forum.
1% is nice but it won't defeat the house edge. No way. Just enjoy the slight extension to your playing time.

Quote: OnceDear

1% is nice but it won't defeat the house edge..

Whittling it down a bit is still fun. good luck.

Quote: OnceDear

It's just something I do to break up the boredom of flat betting Blackjack. It's far less aggressive than Martingale. Bankroll ebbs and flows.

E.g. buy in 100
Wager 1, If that loses wager 2. If that loses, wager 3, if that loses keep wagering 3 until I have a win.
At any win, reset to wagering 1.

Or I might do it with $5 unit so it becomes 5,10,15,15,15
If I'm in the mood to wager bigger, it might be 25,50, 75,75,75 But I'm not really inclined to throw money away so dramatically, very often.

But to extend my play time, if my session roll gets depleted, I limit each wager to 10% of what i have left.

interesting.. you increase your bet on loses and reset back to original on a win.

i do the opposite.
i press when i win, and reset back to original on a loss.
ie: 10,15,20,25,30,40,50, etc

which one is better for bankroll conservation? ie: longer play time

Quote: 100xOdds

interesting.. you increase your bet on loses and reset back to original on a win.

i do the opposite.
i press when i win, and reset back to original on a loss.
ie: 10,15,20,25,30,40,50, etc

which one is better for bankroll conservation? ie: longer play time

I don't know which is better. I've tried something like your way. It just feels so different. If you plot rolling bankroll as a chart for my way, you'll see an upward staircase punctuated by deep dips. Plot it your way and you'll get repeated downward staircases punctuated by big leaps. Whatever feels best on the day, I guess.

If you tend to win at Baccarat, play that game with this little added bonus. If you don't tend to win at Baccarat, don't play it because this little rebate is not going to affect your outcome much, if at all.

When I play Baccarat my final outcome per session has nothing to do with the house edge. I could be playing a Baccarat with zero commission and the way I play the game the end outcome would not be any different: I either win big, or I walk with as small a loss as possible.

Quote: OnceDear

I don't know which is better. I've tried something like your way. It just feels so different. If you plot rolling bankroll as a chart for my way, you'll see an upward staircase punctuated by deep dips. Plot it your way and you'll get repeated downward staircases punctuated by big leaps.
Whatever feels best on the day, I guess.

thinking about the 2 pressing strategies more, i figure your way is better because we're playing a slightly -EV game. (3:2 blackjack, ultimate texas holdem)
being -EV, you're going to lose more hands than win.
so pressing on the loss makes more sense??

Quote: 100xOdds

thinking about the 2 pressing strategies more, i figure your way is better because we're playing a slightly -EV game. (3:2 blackjack, ultimate texas holdem)
being -EV, you're going to lose more hands than win.
so pressing on the loss makes more sense??

I feel a graph coming on... I really don't know which way it will go.... Apart from bankroll trending downwards in both cases.

Quote: MDawg

When I play Baccarat my final outcome per session has nothing to do with the house edge.

That needs to be your signature

Quote: MDawg

When I play Baccarat my final outcome per session has nothing to do with the house edge.

Yes it does.

Quote: 100xOdds

interesting.. you increase your bet on loses and reset back to original on a win.

i do the opposite.
i press when i win, and reset back to original on a loss.
ie: 10,15,20,25,30,40,50, etc

which one is better for bankroll conservation? ie: longer play time

That's funny. I do almost the exact. Mine is
10, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50. Best thing about doing this is when you are at 50 level and get BJ. If you were pressing only on loses you just hit a $10 BJ. Also if I get a double and win that counts as 2 levels for me.