$500 free bet please explain the math :)

Alright so a casino i haven't been to in a long time sent me a voucher saying - receive up to $500 in free play based on how much you lose on your first visit*up to $500* . So I read all the rules & happened to have an event to go to there so I went and bet $500 on one roll & lost. I'll receive the $500 voucher in 2 $250 increments. Im gonna bet 2 more dice rolls for $250 each when I get the vouchers. The people that I were with... I was trying to explain why this was such a good deal but they wouldn't understand...

The articles on this site have been great to me! I'm literally up so much money gambling in the long haul that my emotions have been removed! I lost that $500 & still walked out of the casino trying to explain to everyone I was with why everyone should literally go in there & do what I did in the same situation.

Thanks ahead of time!!

Roudy12345,

You're welcome! That is also an excellent way to play a Craps Loss Rebate. If you would like to show your friends why you had an advantage, then feel free to print off (or E-mail) the following math to them.

Although, the only thing that I might do differently is play the $250 in far smaller increments, if possible. Granted, the expected value of those vouchers (are they Match Play, Non-Negotiable, or Promotional Chips?) is the same no matter how you do it, but one of the nice things about a Loss Rebate is that enables you to bet big, but when you get the rebate, to bet in smaller increments with the expectation of generating something back and not being as subject to Variance. Betting the $500 at once was definitely the way to go, though.

Okay, so let us first look at the expected value of the initial bet:

You bet $500, you had a .4929 probability of winning $500:

(500 * .4929) = $246.45

Now, if those are promotional chips that could only be played on the Pass Line, then they have the same expected value as your initial bet on the profit side.

(500 * .4929) = $246.45

Of course, that would not be profit because you actually lost $500 to get them.

However, as you have pointed out, you want to look at expected loss, which is:

(500 * .4929) - (500 * .5071) = $7.10

Therefore, your expected loss on the initial bet would normally be $7.10. However, that expected loss is mitigated by the expected return of the rebate money, which as we discussed, is $239.35. (Considering the expected loss on the initial play) The ultimate result is that you are effectively expected to win either $500 or effectively expected to lose $260.65 in total. With that:

(500 * .4929) - (260.65 * .5071) = 114.274385 or $114.27

In effect, you are making one $500 wager with an expected profit of $114.27, which makes your percentage advantage on it 114.27/500 = .22854 or 22.854% profit.

The only thing that you might have done differently is that if the Loss Rebate could have been used for slots/VP in exchange for Free Play, then that would likely have been the better play (unless you are getting non-negotiable chips) because Free Play has a much better expected return per equal face value as compared to Match Play and Promotional Chips. If there is a 99% return machine, for example, then your Free Play has a 99% expected return, or $495 on $500.

Yeah the casino has real bad payouts on slots/VP the slots is around 82-85% best video poker machines were 93-95% according to that freeVP website. Of course with perfect play on the vp machine. I felt like I would have to play to lose the $500 on the video poker trying to hit a monster then spend a lot of time betting 1.25 per hand with perfect play to try to get the expected return or close to it. They removed the 100 play nickel per hand machines & I wouldn't of minded playing that one at $5 a push for my rebate.

A couple follow up questions if you have any time ! lol

If they were to send me 10 - $50 table play vouchers what would you reccomend doing? I know I'm just getting the 2- 250 but I just love to Educate myself on these type of things lol

Also if the voucher is applicable for video poker would you recommend sticking at the craps table or playing it on video poker ?

bonus question! Lol
- I'm going to Vegas next month for a 5 day trip & have found some video poker machine payouts of 100.76% - one that is at 100.92% but it's a low bet amount... what would you recommend me doing betting wise while I'm there for the best odds? Are these VP machines my best bet or do you know of any casinos that offer similar incentives for signing up & they matching my money I lose immediately or anything like this ? I've never played in Vegas so I don't have player cards anywhere yet ! I can't do what I did tonight with this casino because they take 4-6 weeks to mail me my coupons

Quote: roudy12345

Yeah the casino has real bad payouts on slots/VP the slots is around 82-85% best video poker machines were 93-95% according to that freeVP website. Of course with perfect play on the vp machine. I felt like I would have to play to lose the $500 on the video poker trying to hit a monster then spend a lot of time betting 1.25 per hand with perfect play to try to get the expected return or close to it. They removed the 100 play nickel per hand machines & I wouldn't of minded playing that one at $5 a push for my rebate.

With all due respect, unless they are Non-Negotiable chips, the Video Poker could be at 80% and you would have a better expected return on the rebate aspect of the promotion. Granted, from an expected profit standpoint, that would largely depend on how much you could get down per hand on the front end. However, high-limit slots are also an excellent way to go for something such as this.

In terms of probability of success, you probably had the best probability of success if the goal is to profit $500 with Craps, so I will certainly concede that. Like I said, the downside is on the back end with the reduced expected return of the rebate portion.

Quote:

A couple follow up questions if you have any time ! lol

If they were to send me 10 - $50 table play vouchers what would you reccomend doing? I know I'm just getting the 2- 250 but I just love to Educate myself on these type of things lol

Hell, if I had time for that first post, I have time for this.

I am assuming that these are promotional chips. What you are best off doing would depend largely upon what your goals are. If you want to maximize your probability of having a return, then you could either stick to $50 bets or you could offset Pass/Don't Pass with $50 voucher on one and $25 cash on the other if they would allow you. If you have someone who could go with you, then that person could offset your voucher or promotional chip with cash. That would guarantee some kind of return, provided you don't see ten twelves in a row.

On anything except a CO twelve, you would either receive $50 for your $50 voucher/promotional, but lose $25 cash for a profit of $25 or you would lose the voucher/promotional, but the $25 bet would win $25 cash for a profit of $25.

The probability of a CO 12 is 1/36 and the probability of anything else on the CO is 35/36. The Don't Pass bet would push, but it doesn't really matter whether you use the cash or the voucher for that, because you are trying to win $25 on any other result no matter what it is. In dollars and cents terms, I guess the voucher technically has slightly less value than the cash, so put the cash on the Don't Pass with a lower expected loss per bet made.

The voucher has a value of $24.645 on the PL, so we will construe that as the amount lost with a CO 12.

(35/36 * 25) - (1/36 * 24.645) = $23.62097222 or $23.62 That is $236.20 for ten CO rolls.

Okay, let's look at your expected value just doing the Pass Line bet:

(50 * .4929) = $24.645

Therefore, you expect to profit $246.45 just to make the Pass Line bet only with the voucher/promotional on ten CO rolls. Your expected value is reduced on the offset because of the negative expectation DP bet you are making.

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Also if the voucher is applicable for video poker would you recommend sticking at the craps table or playing it on video poker ?

If it is a Non-Negotiable chip, then it depends on the VP game. Those are chips that pay AND stay up on a win. Anything else, and VP by a mile. The paytable doesn't even matter, it will have better value than Match Play or a Promotional Chip.

Quote:

bonus question! Lol
- I'm going to Vegas next month for a 5 day trip & have found some video poker machine payouts of 100.76% - one that is at 100.92% but it's a low bet amount... what would you recommend me doing betting wise while I'm there for the best odds? Are these VP machines my best bet or do you know of any casinos that offer similar incentives for signing up & they matching my money I lose immediately or anything like this ? I've never played in Vegas so I don't have player cards anywhere yet ! I can't do what I did tonight with this casino because they take 4-6 weeks to mail me my coupons

I will have a few answers for this for you tomorrow. Feel free to remind me by day after tomorrow if I have not yet answered this. I have a few answers, but I'm kind of tired.

Quote: roudy12345

Im gonna bet 2 more dice rolls for $250 each when I get the vouchers.

I don't deny that makes sense but it takes balls! Most of us want less variance on the back side of this play. After all, the ideal thing for a regular AP play -and for the House generally for that matter - is no variance at all - but perhaps this a bit different.

Quote:

The people that I were with... I was trying to explain why this was such a good deal but they wouldn't understand...

The old saying is "you can't argue with success" and I think that means the corollary is that you can't make a lost bet sound like a winning bet, people won't listen.

Yes that makes perfect sense!

No worries man! I've been doing tons of research myself, but I'm always curious from professionals on their thoughts!

roudy, I'd definitely recommend you bankroll them playing it then if you can. When you get the 2x$250 free bets, do they come at the same time or would you have to make multiple trips back with someone to collect the FP?

If you can get 5 ppl to do this FOR you, you should make a little money out of it ;-)... then your friends will be like "oh, guess he must know something!"

Haha I'm already in the process of doing exactly that!

The coupons come 2 weeks apart $250 each so I have to make 2 trips up there but the casino is right down the street from where I work.

I will admit that it's still a good bet but I was unaware that the voucher isn't kept upon a win. I thought the $250 was won and you got to keep playing the voucher ... makes complete sense though. I'm gonna try to play video poker depending on what the coupon works on

I wanted to update on more information about all of it!

They sent me 8 - $62 vouchers for free table play only since I did it on craps. The voucher would of been valid only on slots/video poker if I lost it that way.

When one of the vouchers win they pay you $62 for the piece of paper and another $62 for the win giving you the chance to win $992 if you were to win all 8 plays. The places must be on a even money paying item such as pass don't pass or blackjack.

I've figured out a way for more people to get there hands on this $500 free bet voucher & I've been offering to bankroll this for anyone I know who I can trust to go up to the casino with me and again if they lose the initial $500 to use the vouchers. I'm starting to make a little bit of $$$ doing it which has been nice!

This casino offers 5x odds so I'm gonna start betting like $85 on the pass line and then $415 on the odds rather then just putting all $500 on the don't

Mission I'm headed to Vegas in a couple weeks! If you know any free bets or casinos that have good initial offers let me know :)

So just to be clear... If you place a casino voucher for $50 on the pass line, and win on a come out 7... You get $100 TOTAL back in chips ($50 for the voucher & $50 for the win)? Was this on your original Loss Rebate or new mailers based on your play? Very odd to see "$62" vouchers...

They sound like match plays except you don't have to make an actual cash bet.

Quote: Romes

Very odd to see "$62" vouchers...

probably making him come back 8 times!

Yes this is what they did. I would put $62 on the don't pass & if it won I got a total of $124 in chips

I had to make 2 trips to use all 8 4 of the vouchers were for a week and a half apart