Craps strategy that gives you roughly 22% advantage over casino!?
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 | 5 votes (29.41%) | ||
| | 12 votes (70.58%) |
17 members have voted
February 9th, 2017 at 4:19:28 PM
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Hello I was wondering if my math is correct on this and if this strategy I made really gives you an edge... here is how you do it.... bet 10$ on field, and bet 5$ on Any seven/Big Red... I calculated it out and that should give you a 61.11% chance of winning and only a 38.89% chance of losing each roll which theoretically gives you a 22.22% advantage OVER casino every roll! correct?? is this a viable way to play if so I call this strategy BETTING FOR MONACO
also please explain how i might be incorrect.
also please explain how i might be incorrect.
February 9th, 2017 at 4:24:17 PM
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Quote: GalatraxHello I was wondering if my math is correct on this and if this strategy I made really gives you an edge... here is how you do it.... bet 10$ on field, and bet 5$ on Any seven/Big Red... I calculated it out and that should give you a 61.11% chance of winning and only a 38.89% chance of losing each roll which theoretically gives you a 22.22% advantage OVER casino every roll! correct?? is this a viable way to play if so I call this strategy BETTING FOR MONACO
You propose to combine two wagers, each with a negative expectation, and come out with a +22% advantage every single roll? Perhaps a better name for this strategy is "BETTING FOR SOMALIA"
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
February 9th, 2017 at 4:26:27 PM
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My intention in replying is not to argue but just to point out that statistically i do not see how i am incorrect. the math adds up. please explain the only way to lose is if you roll a 5 6 or 8 any other number you win....statistically i dont see the flaw
February 9th, 2017 at 4:41:50 PM
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You lose $15 on 5, 6, or 8. You win $10 on 7. You win $15 on 2/12. You win $5 on everything else. Do the math.
February 9th, 2017 at 4:44:46 PM
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when 12 pays 3 times you win 25 most casinos ive seen pay double 2 and triple 12
February 9th, 2017 at 4:53:11 PM
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It doesn't change the conclusion.
February 9th, 2017 at 4:55:16 PM
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Quote: GalatraxMy intention in replying is not to argue but just to point out that statistically i do not see how i am incorrect. the math adds up. please explain the only way to lose is if you roll a 5 6 or 8 any other number you win....statistically i dont see the flaw
There are 36 ways the dice can land. Map out how much you would win or lose for each of the 36 possible outcomes and add them up. Do you still get +22%? There are a lot of ways to make 5,6 and 8. You lose $15 for each of them.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
February 9th, 2017 at 4:56:30 PM
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Proposed bets are $10 Field and $5 Big Red.
Package requires a single-toss resolution.
Package has a return from the Field numbers 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12 and the number 7
Field will pay double on 2 and triple on 12 and single on other winners plus return the Field bet
Big Red will pay quadruple plus return the Red bet
Package Expected Value is (1/36)(10 + 20) + (14/36)(10 + 10) + (1/36)(10 + 30) + (6/36)(5 + 20) = 13.888889
Percent disadvantage is (13.888889 - 15)(100) / (15) = - 7.407407 %
Package requires a single-toss resolution.
Package has a return from the Field numbers 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12 and the number 7
Field will pay double on 2 and triple on 12 and single on other winners plus return the Field bet
Big Red will pay quadruple plus return the Red bet
Package Expected Value is (1/36)(10 + 20) + (14/36)(10 + 10) + (1/36)(10 + 30) + (6/36)(5 + 20) = 13.888889
Percent disadvantage is (13.888889 - 15)(100) / (15) = - 7.407407 %
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
February 9th, 2017 at 4:57:07 PM
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Outcome Probability
2 1/36 = 2.78%
3 2/36 = 5.56%
4 3/36 = 8.33%
5 4/36 = 11.11%
6 5/36 = 13.89%
7 6/36 = 16.67%
8 5/36 = 13.89%
9 4/36 = 11.11%
10 3/36 = 8.33%
11 2/36 = 5.56%
12 1/36 = 2.78%
nope it doesnt like i said 11.11 +13.89+13.89 =38.89% to lose =61.11%win
2 1/36 = 2.78%
3 2/36 = 5.56%
4 3/36 = 8.33%
5 4/36 = 11.11%
6 5/36 = 13.89%
7 6/36 = 16.67%
8 5/36 = 13.89%
9 4/36 = 11.11%
10 3/36 = 8.33%
11 2/36 = 5.56%
12 1/36 = 2.78%
nope it doesnt like i said 11.11 +13.89+13.89 =38.89% to lose =61.11%win
