Poll

5 votes (29.41%)
12 votes (70.58%)

17 members have voted

Galatrax
Galatrax
Joined: Feb 9, 2017
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February 9th, 2017 at 4:19:28 PM permalink
Hello I was wondering if my math is correct on this and if this strategy I made really gives you an edge... here is how you do it.... bet 10$ on field, and bet 5$ on Any seven/Big Red... I calculated it out and that should give you a 61.11% chance of winning and only a 38.89% chance of losing each roll which theoretically gives you a 22.22% advantage OVER casino every roll! correct?? is this a viable way to play if so I call this strategy BETTING FOR MONACO
also please explain how i might be incorrect.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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Galatrax
February 9th, 2017 at 4:24:17 PM permalink
Quote: Galatrax

Hello I was wondering if my math is correct on this and if this strategy I made really gives you an edge... here is how you do it.... bet 10$ on field, and bet 5$ on Any seven/Big Red... I calculated it out and that should give you a 61.11% chance of winning and only a 38.89% chance of losing each roll which theoretically gives you a 22.22% advantage OVER casino every roll! correct?? is this a viable way to play if so I call this strategy BETTING FOR MONACO



You propose to combine two wagers, each with a negative expectation, and come out with a +22% advantage every single roll? Perhaps a better name for this strategy is "BETTING FOR SOMALIA"
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Galatrax
Galatrax
Joined: Feb 9, 2017
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February 9th, 2017 at 4:26:27 PM permalink
My intention in replying is not to argue but just to point out that statistically i do not see how i am incorrect. the math adds up. please explain the only way to lose is if you roll a 5 6 or 8 any other number you win....statistically i dont see the flaw
MB
MB
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Galatraxteliot
February 9th, 2017 at 4:41:50 PM permalink
You lose $15 on 5, 6, or 8. You win $10 on 7. You win $15 on 2/12. You win $5 on everything else. Do the math.
Galatrax
Galatrax
Joined: Feb 9, 2017
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February 9th, 2017 at 4:44:46 PM permalink
when 12 pays 3 times you win 25 most casinos ive seen pay double 2 and triple 12
MB
MB
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February 9th, 2017 at 4:53:11 PM permalink
It doesn't change the conclusion.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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SanchoPanza
February 9th, 2017 at 4:55:16 PM permalink
Quote: Galatrax

My intention in replying is not to argue but just to point out that statistically i do not see how i am incorrect. the math adds up. please explain the only way to lose is if you roll a 5 6 or 8 any other number you win....statistically i dont see the flaw



There are 36 ways the dice can land. Map out how much you would win or lose for each of the 36 possible outcomes and add them up. Do you still get +22%? There are a lot of ways to make 5,6 and 8. You lose $15 for each of them.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
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Galatrax
February 9th, 2017 at 4:56:30 PM permalink
Proposed bets are $10 Field and $5 Big Red.

Package requires a single-toss resolution.

Package has a return from the Field numbers 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12 and the number 7

Field will pay double on 2 and triple on 12 and single on other winners plus return the Field bet

Big Red will pay quadruple plus return the Red bet

Package Expected Value is (1/36)(10 + 20) + (14/36)(10 + 10) + (1/36)(10 + 30) + (6/36)(5 + 20) = 13.888889

Percent disadvantage is (13.888889 - 15)(100) / (15) = - 7.407407 %
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
Galatrax
Galatrax
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February 9th, 2017 at 4:57:07 PM permalink
Outcome Probability
2 1/36 = 2.78%
3 2/36 = 5.56%
4 3/36 = 8.33%
5 4/36 = 11.11%
6 5/36 = 13.89%
7 6/36 = 16.67%
8 5/36 = 13.89%
9 4/36 = 11.11%
10 3/36 = 8.33%
11 2/36 = 5.56%
12 1/36 = 2.78%

nope it doesnt like i said 11.11 +13.89+13.89 =38.89% to lose =61.11%win
Galatrax
Galatrax
Joined: Feb 9, 2017
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February 9th, 2017 at 5:01:52 PM permalink
please explain this lol im confused

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