Daily $50 promotional match-play chips

A casino near by offers players $50 on match play chips (five $10 match play chips) for a $100 buy-in on EZ Baccarat table. You must play 1 hour minimum or you will lose the privilege of the promotion. I was wondering what are the odds if I play 10 hands on banker every day (one hand every 10 minutes, 5 of them with $10 match-play chip which has a payout of 2 to 1). Should I use a betting system with this? Or am I better off flat betting? I spend $10 on gas money to get to the casino. Do you think I'll still come on top on the long run? How would you play this to get the most out of the promotion?

PS: My first idea was to cash in $100 and bet just $50 with the five match-play chips and leave immediately win or lose. But the next day after doing this I got a warning because I must play 1 hour minimum.

Thanks.

Quote: jdxci

A casino near by offers players $50 on match play chips (five $10 match play chips) for a $100 buy-in on EZ Baccarat table. You must play 1 hour minimum or you will lose the privilege of the promotion. I was wondering what are the odds if I play 10 hands on banker every day (one hand every 10 minutes, 5 of them with $10 match-play chip which has a payout of 2 to 1). Should I use a betting system with this? Or am I better off flat betting? I spend $10 on gas money to get to the casino. Do you think I'll still come on top on the long run? How would you play this to get the most out of the promotion?

PS: My first idea was to cash in $100 and bet just $50 with the five match-play chips and leave immediately win or lose. But the next day after doing this I got a warning because I must play 1 hour minimum.

Thanks.

Most importantly, betting systems will NOT change your long-term expectation, but unless you wish to risk the possibility of a substantial loss in a day, I would recommend flat-betting the Table Minimum for whatever game you play.

The thing is that it's probably going to be the same warning if you try to slow-play the table, or skip rounds, or whatever. They're only going to let you blatantly exploit your Match Play chips for so long, so just take your advantage (which you have), take it daily, and don't pi$$ them off otherwise you might just manage to kill the promotion for everyone else.

By the way, is it only offered on the EZ Baccarat table?

If you look at Baccarat with the Banker bet having a HE of 1.06% and an expectation of roughly seventy hands an hour, then betting $700 total (including your Match Plays) you are looking at an expected loss of $7.42 on the cash bet but an expected gain of $50 * .4827 = $24.14 for an overall ER of + $16.72 daily.

Actually, your expectation is a little better if you bet Player, but only when doing the Match Play, and that's because of the Commission on Banker.

If you could play it on Craps, though, even at the 1.41% Pass Line house edge, you'll only see about fifty resolutions per hour, and if you can slow-play (to a reasonable extent) by fiddling with setting the dice and what-not, you might even get that down to forty resolutions in a way that won't Pi$$ the casino off. That would be $400 in bets with an expected base loss of $5.64 and an expected gain of $50 * .4788 = $23.94 on the Match Play for an expectation of +$18.30 daily.

Either way, you're not going to get rich, but you're expected to make a few bucks a day, and as you can see, your hourly at least exceeds $15...unless you want to count travel time.

Finally, unless your Match Plays are limited to Even Money bets (as they often are) your best Expected Value will come from taking long-shot bets like a Hop Bet at Craps or a single number on Roulette. You would want to do this and then revert to an even money type bet once the Match Plays were done, most of your days would be likely to be losing days, but if you can do it enough times, you have a chance of it hitting and making up for it.

Do you have any specifics on how many days this is anticipated to be going on, or anything? Don't reveal the name of the casino publicly, just how many days is fine.

Do they take the match play chips if you win or do they pay you and let the chips remain until lost?

Thanks for the advice. Unfortunately they only offer it for Ez Baccarat and the bet has to be on banker. I've ask a few players and they say that the promotion has been up as long as they can remember, so it has probably been up for over a year or to. Hopefully it will last a few more. Thanks again.

AcelWolf... They take away the match play chip.

Quote: jdxci

AcelWolf... They take away the match play chip.