The odds of getting a point is always 40.61%
June 6th, 2020 at 11:49:03 PM
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The odds of getting a point is always 40.61% no matter how many points the shooter has rolled in the past.
June 6th, 2020 at 11:53:59 PM
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Average Number of Points Hit Per Shooter in Craps discussed in Gambling/Questions and Answers at Wizard of Vegas https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/3146-average-number-of-points-hit-per-shooter-in-craps/
June 7th, 2020 at 12:47:18 AM
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What you quote is the chances, given you are now throwing for your point, of making it.Quote: ChumpChangeThe odds of getting a point is always 40.61% no matter how many points the shooter has rolled in the past.
Out of 495 outcomes ...
110 | Natural winner (7 or 11) |
55 | Craps (2 3 or 12) |
134 | Point made |
196 | 7-out |
So the chances of making a point given you've established one is 134 / 330 (40.61%).
June 7th, 2020 at 12:53:56 AM
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Why do don't pass betters get shortchanged on laying odds versus pass line players? discussed in Craps/Gambling at Wizard of Vegas https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12642-why-do-dont-pass-betters-get-shortchanged-on-laying-odds-versus-pass-line-players/#post210393
June 7th, 2020 at 1:16:57 AM
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I'm trying to figure out what the chances are of winning at least strictly x odds bets in a row.
I don't know how to figure out the Don't side yet. I just multiplied on the Do side by 40.61% each time starting at 1 odds win.
I get the feeling I can win 6 Don't Odds bets in a row a lot easier than I can win 6 Do Odds bets in a row.
I don't know how to figure out the Don't side yet. I just multiplied on the Do side by 40.61% each time starting at 1 odds win.
I get the feeling I can win 6 Don't Odds bets in a row a lot easier than I can win 6 Do Odds bets in a row.
| PL Odds | Chance | DP Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59.39% | 0 | % |
| 1 | 40.61% | 1 | % |
| 2 | 16.49% | 2 | % | 3 | 6.70% | 3 | % | 4 | 2.72% | 4 | % | 5 | 1.10% | 5 | % | 6 | 0.45% | 6 | % | 7 | 0.18% | 7 | % | 8 | 0.07% | 8 | % | 9 | 0.03% | 9 | % | 10 | 0.01% | 10 | % |
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 7, 2020
June 7th, 2020 at 11:46:08 AM
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Quote: ChumpChange...I'm trying to figure out what the chances are of winning at least strictly x odds bets in a row.
I don't know how to figure out the Don't side yet. I just multiplied on the Do side by 40.61% each time starting at 1 odds win.
I get the feeling I can win 6 Don't Odds bets in a row a lot easier than I can win 6 Do Odds bets in a row.
I modified your table by multiplying each of your 1-10 PL chance percentages by 0.5939. This reflects the fact that each streak of points made ends with a seven-out. (Now, the sum of the chances for 0 to 10 passes is close to 100%.)
Also, if you do (0)(59.39%) + (1)(24.12%) + (2)(9.79%) + (3)(3.98%) + … + (10)(0.01%), you'll get about 0.68, which is the expected number of points made before a seven-out. A quicker way to get 0.68 is 40.61% / 59.39%.
I filled in your DP chances. These numbers can be used to find the number of successful don't pass bets: 1.46. (And 1.46 is 59.39% / 40.61%.) And from the table, we can see you're right--a streak of 6 don't passes is a lot easier than a streak of 6 passes.
| PL Odds | Chance | DP Odds | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59.39% | 0 | 40.61% |
| 1 | 24.12% | 1 | 24.12% |
| 2 | 9.79% | 2 | 14.32% | 3 | 3.98% | 3 | 8.51% | 4 | 1.61% | 4 | 5.05% | 5 | 0.66% | 5 | 3.00% | 6 | 0.27% | 6 | 1.78% | 7 | 0.11% | 7 | 1.06% | 8 | 0.04% | 8 | 0.63% | 9 | 0.02% | 9 | 0.37% | 10 | 0.01% | 10 | 0.22% |
June 7th, 2020 at 11:59:25 AM
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So my chances of winning 10 Don't Pass odds bets in a row is in the neighborhood of winning 6 Pass Line odds bets in a row?
It's funny that the chances of winning 1 odds bet on either side is the exact same.
I'm 10 times more likely to hit 7 DP odds bets in a row versus 7 PL odds bets in a row. Guess which odds progression I'll use; the one for 7 in a row on the Don't side.
So on the PL side, I start with 0.5939 and keep multiplying by 0.4061.
On the DP side, I start with 0.4061 and keep multiplying by 0.5939.
It's funny that the chances of winning 1 odds bet on either side is the exact same.
I'm 10 times more likely to hit 7 DP odds bets in a row versus 7 PL odds bets in a row. Guess which odds progression I'll use; the one for 7 in a row on the Don't side.
So on the PL side, I start with 0.5939 and keep multiplying by 0.4061.
On the DP side, I start with 0.4061 and keep multiplying by 0.5939.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 7, 2020
June 7th, 2020 at 3:06:17 PM
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Quote: ChumpChangeIt's funny that the chances of winning 1 odds bet on either side is the exact same.
Not funny at all. The odds of making a point followed by missing one are the same as the odds of missing a point followed by making one.
Quote: ChumpChangeI'm 10 times more likely to hit 7 DP odds bets in a row versus 7 PL odds bets in a row. Guess which odds progression I'll use; the one for 7 in a row on the Don't side.
Just remember that Pass Line odds bets always pay 6-5 or better, whereas DP odds bets always pay 5-6 or worse.
June 7th, 2020 at 3:22:58 PM
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So based on 249 rolls per hour, how many decisions, come out and point cycle, are there in total?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
June 7th, 2020 at 8:18:40 PM
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Yeah, that's so much WinCraps. I'll have to slow my roll at the tables and settle for a 6 in a row progression.
June 7th, 2020 at 9:00:12 PM
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https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25/probability/odds-rolling-6-sixes-eights-before-7-craps-1321458/
Re: Odds of rolling 6 sixes (or eights) before a 7 in craps
(5/11)^6 * 6/11 =~ 0.48%
6 is a 6:5 underdog to occur before a 7 since there are 6 ways to make a 7 and only 5 ways to make a 6, so the probability of occurring before the next 7 is 5/11, 6 times in a row (5/11)^6, and then the probability of a 7 occurring before the next 6 is 6/11.
EDIT: Above is for exactly 6 sixes. For 6 or more it is just (5/11)^6 =~ 0.88%.
Re: Odds of rolling 6 sixes (or eights) before a 7 in craps
(5/11)^6 * 6/11 =~ 0.48%
6 is a 6:5 underdog to occur before a 7 since there are 6 ways to make a 7 and only 5 ways to make a 6, so the probability of occurring before the next 7 is 5/11, 6 times in a row (5/11)^6, and then the probability of a 7 occurring before the next 6 is 6/11.
EDIT: Above is for exactly 6 sixes. For 6 or more it is just (5/11)^6 =~ 0.88%.
June 7th, 2020 at 9:42:38 PM
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Quote: DeMangoSo based on 249 rolls per hour, how many decisions, come out and point cycle, are there in total?
That's about 74 decisions/hour.
Do 249 * 165 / 557 or about 249 / 3.38.
See https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/34755-avg-no-of-rolls-decision/#post771082
How many rolls per hour do we see at a busy table?
June 7th, 2020 at 10:49:07 PM
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I understand 74 decisions. Are wins, losses about even? You lose 60% on points, and win 66% on come outs.Quote: ChesterDogThat's about 74 decisions/hour.
Do 249 * 165 / 557 or about 249 / 3.38.
See https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/34755-avg-no-of-rolls-decision/#post771082
How many rolls per hour do we see at a busy table?
Don't care to know how many rolls on a busy table, avoid them like the plague.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
June 8th, 2020 at 1:14:25 PM
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Quote: DeMangoI understand 74 decisions. Are wins, losses about even? You lose 60% on points, and win 66% on come outs.Quote: ChesterDogThat's about 74 decisions/hour.
Do 249 * 165 / 557 or about 249 / 3.38.
See https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/34755-avg-no-of-rolls-decision/#post771082
How many rolls per hour do we see at a busy table?
Don't care to know how many rolls on a busy table, avoid them like the plague.
Of 74 decisions per hour, you win an average of about 16 on the come out roll and 20 with a point.
(And more precisely, of 73.8 decisions per hour, pass bets win about 16.4 on the come out and 20.0 with a point. They would lose an average of 8.2 times on the come out and 29.2 with a point.)
June 8th, 2020 at 5:15:17 PM
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Thank you very much. Amazing I've never seen it put this way, more than 15 years into my online craps journey.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
