ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 1597
June 6th, 2020 at 11:49:03 PM permalink
The odds of getting a point is always 40.61% no matter how many points the shooter has rolled in the past.
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 1597
June 6th, 2020 at 11:53:59 PM permalink
Average Number of Points Hit Per Shooter in Craps discussed in Gambling/Questions and Answers at Wizard of Vegas https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/3146-average-number-of-points-hit-per-shooter-in-craps/
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 2207
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June 7th, 2020 at 12:47:18 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

The odds of getting a point is always 40.61% no matter how many points the shooter has rolled in the past.

What you quote is the chances, given you are now throwing for your point, of making it.
Out of 495 outcomes ...
 110 Natural winner (7 or 11) 55 Craps (2 3 or 12) 134 Point made 196 7-out

So the chances of making a point given you've established one is 134 / 330 (40.61%).
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 1597
June 7th, 2020 at 12:53:56 AM permalink
Why do don't pass betters get shortchanged on laying odds versus pass line players? discussed in Craps/Gambling at Wizard of Vegas https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12642-why-do-dont-pass-betters-get-shortchanged-on-laying-odds-versus-pass-line-players/#post210393
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 1597
June 7th, 2020 at 1:16:57 AM permalink
I'm trying to figure out what the chances are of winning at least strictly x odds bets in a row.
I don't know how to figure out the Don't side yet. I just multiplied on the Do side by 40.61% each time starting at 1 odds win.
I get the feeling I can win 6 Don't Odds bets in a row a lot easier than I can win 6 Do Odds bets in a row.

PL Odds Chance DP Odds Chance
0 59.39% 0 %
1 40.61% 1 %
2 16.49% 2 %
3 6.70% 3 %
4 2.72% 4 %
5 1.10% 5 %
6 0.45% 6 %
7 0.18% 7 %
8 0.07% 8 %
9 0.03% 9 %
10 0.01% 10 %
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 7, 2020
ChesterDog
Joined: Jul 26, 2010
• Posts: 922
Thanks for this post from:
June 7th, 2020 at 11:46:08 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

...I'm trying to figure out what the chances are of winning at least strictly x odds bets in a row.
I don't know how to figure out the Don't side yet. I just multiplied on the Do side by 40.61% each time starting at 1 odds win.
I get the feeling I can win 6 Don't Odds bets in a row a lot easier than I can win 6 Do Odds bets in a row.

I modified your table by multiplying each of your 1-10 PL chance percentages by 0.5939. This reflects the fact that each streak of points made ends with a seven-out. (Now, the sum of the chances for 0 to 10 passes is close to 100%.)

Also, if you do (0)(59.39%) + (1)(24.12%) + (2)(9.79%) + (3)(3.98%) + … + (10)(0.01%), you'll get about 0.68, which is the expected number of points made before a seven-out. A quicker way to get 0.68 is 40.61% / 59.39%.

I filled in your DP chances. These numbers can be used to find the number of successful don't pass bets: 1.46. (And 1.46 is 59.39% / 40.61%.) And from the table, we can see you're right--a streak of 6 don't passes is a lot easier than a streak of 6 passes.

PL Odds Chance DP Odds Chance
0 59.39% 0 40.61%
1 24.12% 1 24.12%
2 9.79% 2 14.32%
3 3.98% 3 8.51%
4 1.61% 4 5.05%
5 0.66% 5 3.00%
6 0.27% 6 1.78%
7 0.11% 7 1.06%
8 0.04% 8 0.63%
9 0.02% 9 0.37%
10 0.01% 10 0.22%
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 1597
June 7th, 2020 at 11:59:25 AM permalink
So my chances of winning 10 Don't Pass odds bets in a row is in the neighborhood of winning 6 Pass Line odds bets in a row?
It's funny that the chances of winning 1 odds bet on either side is the exact same.
I'm 10 times more likely to hit 7 DP odds bets in a row versus 7 PL odds bets in a row. Guess which odds progression I'll use; the one for 7 in a row on the Don't side.

So on the PL side, I start with 0.5939 and keep multiplying by 0.4061.
On the DP side, I start with 0.4061 and keep multiplying by 0.5939.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 7, 2020
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 4462
June 7th, 2020 at 3:06:17 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

It's funny that the chances of winning 1 odds bet on either side is the exact same.

Not funny at all. The odds of making a point followed by missing one are the same as the odds of missing a point followed by making one.

Quote: ChumpChange

I'm 10 times more likely to hit 7 DP odds bets in a row versus 7 PL odds bets in a row. Guess which odds progression I'll use; the one for 7 in a row on the Don't side.

Just remember that Pass Line odds bets always pay 6-5 or better, whereas DP odds bets always pay 5-6 or worse.
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010