June 6th, 2020 at 11:49:03 PM
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The odds of getting a point is always 40.61% no matter how many points the shooter has rolled in the past.

June 6th, 2020 at 11:53:59 PM
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Average Number of Points Hit Per Shooter in Craps discussed in Gambling/Questions and Answers at Wizard of Vegas https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/3146-average-number-of-points-hit-per-shooter-in-craps/

June 7th, 2020 at 12:47:18 AM
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What you quote is the chances, given you are now throwing for your point, of making it.Quote:ChumpChangeThe odds of getting a point is always 40.61% no matter how many points the shooter has rolled in the past.

Out of 495 outcomes ...

110 | Natural winner (7 or 11) |

55 | Craps (2 3 or 12) |

134 | Point made |

196 | 7-out |

So the chances of making a point given you've established one is 134 / 330 (40.61%).

June 7th, 2020 at 12:53:56 AM
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Why do don't pass betters get shortchanged on laying odds versus pass line players? discussed in Craps/Gambling at Wizard of Vegas https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12642-why-do-dont-pass-betters-get-shortchanged-on-laying-odds-versus-pass-line-players/#post210393

June 7th, 2020 at 1:16:57 AM
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I'm trying to figure out what the chances are of winning at least strictly x odds bets in a row.

I don't know how to figure out the Don't side yet. I just multiplied on the Do side by 40.61% each time starting at 1 odds win.

I get the feeling I can win 6 Don't Odds bets in a row a lot easier than I can win 6 Do Odds bets in a row.

I don't know how to figure out the Don't side yet. I just multiplied on the Do side by 40.61% each time starting at 1 odds win.

I get the feeling I can win 6 Don't Odds bets in a row a lot easier than I can win 6 Do Odds bets in a row.

PL Odds | Chance | DP Odds | Chance |
---|---|---|---|

0 | 59.39% | 0 | % |

1 | 40.61% | 1 | % |

2 | 16.49% | 2 | % |

3 | 6.70% | 3 | % |

4 | 2.72% | 4 | % |

5 | 1.10% | 5 | % |

6 | 0.45% | 6 | % |

7 | 0.18% | 7 | % |

8 | 0.07% | 8 | % |

9 | 0.03% | 9 | % |

10 | 0.01% | 10 | % |

Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 7, 2020

June 7th, 2020 at 11:46:08 AM
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Quote:ChumpChange...I'm trying to figure out what the chances are of winning at least strictly x odds bets in a row.

I don't know how to figure out the Don't side yet. I just multiplied on the Do side by 40.61% each time starting at 1 odds win.

I get the feeling I can win 6 Don't Odds bets in a row a lot easier than I can win 6 Do Odds bets in a row.

I modified your table by multiplying each of your 1-10 PL chance percentages by 0.5939. This reflects the fact that each streak of points made ends with a seven-out. (Now, the sum of the chances for 0 to 10 passes is close to 100%.)

Also, if you do (0)(59.39%) + (1)(24.12%) + (2)(9.79%) + (3)(3.98%) + … + (10)(0.01%), you'll get about 0.68, which is the expected number of points made before a seven-out. A quicker way to get 0.68 is 40.61% / 59.39%.

I filled in your DP chances. These numbers can be used to find the number of successful don't pass bets: 1.46. (And 1.46 is 59.39% / 40.61%.) And from the table, we can see you're right--a streak of 6 don't passes is a lot easier than a streak of 6 passes.

PL Odds | Chance | DP Odds | Chance |
---|---|---|---|

0 | 59.39% | 0 | 40.61% |

1 | 24.12% | 1 | 24.12% |

2 | 9.79% | 2 | 14.32% |

3 | 3.98% | 3 | 8.51% |

4 | 1.61% | 4 | 5.05% |

5 | 0.66% | 5 | 3.00% |

6 | 0.27% | 6 | 1.78% |

7 | 0.11% | 7 | 1.06% |

8 | 0.04% | 8 | 0.63% |

9 | 0.02% | 9 | 0.37% |

10 | 0.01% | 10 | 0.22% |

June 7th, 2020 at 11:59:25 AM
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So my chances of winning 10 Don't Pass odds bets in a row is in the neighborhood of winning 6 Pass Line odds bets in a row?

It's funny that the chances of winning 1 odds bet on either side is the exact same.

I'm 10 times more likely to hit 7 DP odds bets in a row versus 7 PL odds bets in a row. Guess which odds progression I'll use; the one for 7 in a row on the Don't side.

So on the PL side, I start with 0.5939 and keep multiplying by 0.4061.

On the DP side, I start with 0.4061 and keep multiplying by 0.5939.

It's funny that the chances of winning 1 odds bet on either side is the exact same.

I'm 10 times more likely to hit 7 DP odds bets in a row versus 7 PL odds bets in a row. Guess which odds progression I'll use; the one for 7 in a row on the Don't side.

So on the PL side, I start with 0.5939 and keep multiplying by 0.4061.

On the DP side, I start with 0.4061 and keep multiplying by 0.5939.

Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 7, 2020

June 7th, 2020 at 3:06:17 PM
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Quote:ChumpChangeIt's funny that the chances of winning 1 odds bet on either side is the exact same.

Not funny at all. The odds of making a point followed by missing one are the same as the odds of missing a point followed by making one.

Quote:ChumpChangeI'm 10 times more likely to hit 7 DP odds bets in a row versus 7 PL odds bets in a row. Guess which odds progression I'll use; the one for 7 in a row on the Don't side.

Just remember that Pass Line odds bets always pay 6-5 or better, whereas DP odds bets always pay 5-6 or worse.

June 7th, 2020 at 3:22:58 PM
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So based on 249 rolls per hour, how many decisions, come out and point cycle, are there in total?

When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.

June 7th, 2020 at 8:18:40 PM
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Yeah, that's so much WinCraps. I'll have to slow my roll at the tables and settle for a 6 in a row progression.