scrooge
scrooge
Joined: Nov 22, 2016
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February 1st, 2020 at 12:33:19 PM permalink
Back in 2016, I had never played craps before, but I saw a video on youtube that was plausible, so I got out some dice from a board game and tried it. I got a very statistically significant result on the first try, pitching those rounded game dice a short distance across a smooth marble counter. Much later I realized that the shape of the dice makes a huge difference. Casino dice are perfectly square with sharp edges, because that makes the tumbling more chaotic. The pointy corners catch on the felt and provide a lot of torque because they're far from the center of gravity. Rounded dice are more likely to just keep rolling on the same axis. The combination of rounded dice with a smooth counter in my initial test minimized the torque on the dice and boosted my results. Later I got some square casino dice and a felt to pitch them on. The results were worse: barely statistically significant. Then I went and played in a real casino, where the conditions are even worse. The casino felt is much bouncier than the practice felt. I played about 50 hours of it in 2016 and made a little bit. But I'm not sure because back then my records only recorded the P/L for a visit to a casino, without reference to the specific games played. I went to a GTC seminar and saw some very statistically improbable rolls. I made several thousand betting the pass/come with odds with those guys. It seemed like there was something to it, but it was elusive. They teach you to stand at stick left if you're right handed or stick right if you're left handed, and hold the dice side by side using your thumb and two fingers, and pitch them at about a 45 degree angle with a backspin, so that they bounce before hitting the wall. I never got good results with that method, and I knew that if you're using the 3V set for 6/8, the 2V set for 4/10, and a set I invented for 5/9, then all you care about is keeping the dice on axis, not the relative pitch. So I decided to pitch them low with a lot of front spin and barely enough force to hit the flat diagonal thing at the bottom of the back wall, instead of the pyramids. The hope is that the front spin helps keep them on axis like a gyroscope, and they never hit the pyramids. I don't have enough data to make a conclusion as to whether this method works. If there is an edge to be had here, it's probably too small to bother unless the casino is offering a lot of comps for craps players as if they were all making 13% house edge prop bets. Perhaps some player tracking systems record only the average bet and not where on the craps table you make it. In that case betting pass line with odds could be profitable even for a random roller.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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February 1st, 2020 at 8:03:42 PM permalink
Quote: scrooge

Back in 2016, I had never played craps before, but I saw a video on youtube that was plausible, so I got out some dice from a board game and tried it. I got a very statistically significant result on the first try, pitching those rounded game dice a short distance across a smooth marble counter. Much later I realized that the shape of the dice makes a huge difference. Casino dice are perfectly square with sharp edges, because that makes the tumbling more chaotic. The pointy corners catch on the felt and provide a lot of torque because they're far from the center of gravity. Rounded dice are more likely to just keep rolling on the same axis. The combination of rounded dice with a smooth counter in my initial test minimized the torque on the dice and boosted my results. Later I got some square casino dice and a felt to pitch them on. The results were worse: barely statistically significant. Then I went and played in a real casino, where the conditions are even worse. The casino felt is much bouncier than the practice felt. I played about 50 hours of it in 2016 and made a little bit. But I'm not sure because back then my records only recorded the P/L for a visit to a casino, without reference to the specific games played. I went to a GTC seminar and saw some very statistically improbable rolls. I made several thousand betting the pass/come with odds with those guys. It seemed like there was something to it, but it was elusive. They teach you to stand at stick left if you're right handed or stick right if you're left handed, and hold the dice side by side using your thumb and two fingers, and pitch them at about a 45 degree angle with a backspin, so that they bounce before hitting the wall. I never got good results with that method, and I knew that if you're using the 3V set for 6/8, the 2V set for 4/10, and a set I invented for 5/9, then all you care about is keeping the dice on axis, not the relative pitch. So I decided to pitch them low with a lot of front spin and barely enough force to hit the flat diagonal thing at the bottom of the back wall, instead of the pyramids. The hope is that the front spin helps keep them on axis like a gyroscope, and they never hit the pyramids. I don't have enough data to make a conclusion as to whether this method works. If there is an edge to be had here, it's probably too small to bother unless the casino is offering a lot of comps for craps players as if they were all making 13% house edge prop bets. Perhaps some player tracking systems record only the average bet and not where on the craps table you make it. In that case betting pass line with odds could be profitable even for a random roller.


wall of text :(
maybe edit it so it's easier to read?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Gialmere
Gialmere
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
  • Threads: 41
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February 1st, 2020 at 9:07:17 PM permalink
GTC videos, like this one...



...always remind me of those pseudoscience films popular back in the 70's. When you take a 50 year old guy with glasses, have him wear a lab coat and then film him in a room filled with scientific equipment (always with an oscilloscope in the background), then his theories on the Bermuda Triangle, E.S.P. and ancient aliens have the appearance of legitimacy.

I watch these seemingly legit GTC videos and find myself wanting to believe in the hardway set and the 3v but my brain just wont let me go there.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
FatGeezus
FatGeezus
Joined: Jun 12, 2010
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 514
February 2nd, 2020 at 10:13:55 AM permalink
Quote: scrooge

Back in 2016, I had never played craps before, but I saw a video on youtube that was plausible, so I got out some dice from a board game and tried it. I got a very statistically significant result on the first try, pitching those rounded game dice a short distance across a smooth marble counter. Much later I realized that the shape of the dice makes a huge difference. Casino dice are perfectly square with sharp edges, because that makes the tumbling more chaotic. The pointy corners catch on the felt and provide a lot of torque because they're far from the center of gravity. Rounded dice are more likely to just keep rolling on the same axis. The combination of rounded dice with a smooth counter in my initial test minimized the torque on the dice and boosted my results. Later I got some square casino dice and a felt to pitch them on. The results were worse: barely statistically significant. Then I went and played in a real casino, where the conditions are even worse. The casino felt is much bouncier than the practice felt. I played about 50 hours of it in 2016 and made a little bit. But I'm not sure because back then my records only recorded the P/L for a visit to a casino, without reference to the specific games played. I went to a GTC seminar and saw some very statistically improbable rolls. I made several thousand betting the pass/come with odds with those guys. It seemed like there was something to it, but it was elusive. They teach you to stand at stick left if you're right handed or stick right if you're left handed, and hold the dice side by side using your thumb and two fingers, and pitch them at about a 45 degree angle with a backspin, so that they bounce before hitting the wall. I never got good results with that method, and I knew that if you're using the 3V set for 6/8, the 2V set for 4/10, and a set I invented for 5/9, then all you care about is keeping the dice on axis, not the relative pitch. So I decided to pitch them low with a lot of front spin and barely enough force to hit the flat diagonal thing at the bottom of the back wall, instead of the pyramids. The hope is that the front spin helps keep them on axis like a gyroscope, and they never hit the pyramids. I don't have enough data to make a conclusion as to whether this method works. If there is an edge to be had here, it's probably too small to bother unless the casino is offering a lot of comps for craps players as if they were all making 13% house edge prop bets. Perhaps some player tracking systems record only the average bet and not where on the craps table you make it. In that case betting pass line with odds could be profitable even for a random roller.



Paragraphs are your friends.
7evenOut
7evenOut
Joined: Feb 2, 2020
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February 2nd, 2020 at 3:04:42 PM permalink
The rabbit hole of dice control is always a fun one to travel down. The more I learned about the game, the more I would flop back and forth - convincing myself it was possible, then the next week getting smacked in the mouth by math. I think there is always a part of the brain that wants to find a way to take gambling out of, well, gambling. If I can just throw the dice gingerly enough to stay "on axis" I can eliminate various dice combinations, and therefore change the statistical probabilities of outcomes. As the wizard says "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is".

Do I think dice control is "possible"? Yes. Is throwing a perfect game of darts possible? Yes. It's a fine motor skill that takes YEARS of practice, and even the best have trouble doing it. But I believe the common understanding of dice control is overblown. You can't pick and choose what you throw. There's no "hey shooter, throw a 4!" so you magically place your die and throw the 4. It was best summed up as, and I'm paraphrasing - a way to take your rolls-to-7 ratio from 1:6 to 1:6.5 or greater. When I first learned of the 3V set, I told myself "I can do that" and went on one of my nicer roll streaks, first try. I have no doubt it was a mathematical coincidence, but it certainly put me in the "It's totally doable" camp until math very quickly smacked me in the mouth... again.

So is dice control possible? yes... maybe. And after years and years of developing a very fine motor skill, you might be able to gain .9 points on your rolls to 7 ratio.

As a side note - my brain is currently on the "it's bullpoopy" side of the tennis court. My friend and I will almost always bet against anybody displaying standard practice of dice setting and "control". It has worked out in our favor, so far...
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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February 2nd, 2020 at 4:03:44 PM permalink
I can tell the shooters making 7-11's and their points on the table don't give a crap about dice control, but they may attempt to look like they do.
waterandice
waterandice
Joined: Dec 26, 2014
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 27
March 3rd, 2020 at 1:54:36 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

GTC videos, like this one...



...always remind me of those pseudoscience films popular back in the 70's. When you take a 50 year old guy with glasses, have him wear a lab coat and then film him in a room filled with scientific equipment (always with an oscilloscope in the background), then his theories on the Bermuda Triangle, E.S.P. and ancient aliens have the appearance of legitimacy.

I watch these seemingly legit GTC videos and find myself wanting to believe in the hardway set and the 3v but my brain just wont let me go there.



You literally sound like one of the most narrow minded people ever. 50 year old man, with glasses, knick knack paddy whack, ruff, ruff, ruff, ruff, *cough* garbage. You sound like someone pissed in your cheerios. Were you bullied in school or something? Your whole paragraph was nothing but absolute bullshit. Ancient aliens? . seriously? You do realize that people actually implement dice control in real life and are very successful at it correct? How can you sit there and rip people a new asshole, saying that it's all bullshit when you're the one that's the bullshitter here? Especially when people are actually doing it. Do you say the same thing about other professional athletes as well? Like, do you walk up to a pro bowler that just bowled 3 strikes and say that they're full of shit and didn't just do that? What the hell is wrong with you? You don't have to account for math when you're able to throw consistently well. It's not about math you idiot, it's about mechanics. Do you think professional pitchers think about quantum mechanics when they're up on the mound? NO! They just let their profound muscle memory and experience guide them as they always have done. If you practice something enough to where you're able to consistently do an action over and over again, eventually it just becomes natural (or second nature). If you had half a brain you'd understand this. Maybe perhaps you were the one that was inside reading books while the dice controllers were outside playing sports? That might explain it....Were you sheltered as a kid or something? Did you ever get out and play baseball? Throw the football? I think there is seriously something wrong with you and people that think like you. You need to go see a psychiatrist or something? What other things have you called bullshit on that actually happened? I'd sure like to know. You sure are one helluva puzzle piece to understand in the very least, let me tell ya. Absolute lunacy. Bermuda triangle? ESP? Scientific equipment? .. <<< lol.... fuck outta with that stupid shit bro. You're probably one of those types of people that end up getting punched in the face for how idiotic you are and then you finally grow up when you realize just how stupid you sound/act/etc...
Last edited by: waterandice on Mar 3, 2020
waterandice
waterandice
Joined: Dec 26, 2014
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 27
March 3rd, 2020 at 1:55:55 PM permalink
Quote: 7evenOut

The rabbit hole of dice control is always a fun one to travel down. The more I learned about the game, the more I would flop back and forth - convincing myself it was possible, then the next week getting smacked in the mouth by math. I think there is always a part of the brain that wants to find a way to take gambling out of, well, gambling. If I can just throw the dice gingerly enough to stay "on axis" I can eliminate various dice combinations, and therefore change the statistical probabilities of outcomes. As the wizard says "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is".

Do I think dice control is "possible"? Yes. Is throwing a perfect game of darts possible? Yes. It's a fine motor skill that takes YEARS of practice, and even the best have trouble doing it. But I believe the common understanding of dice control is overblown. You can't pick and choose what you throw. There's no "hey shooter, throw a 4!" so you magically place your die and throw the 4. It was best summed up as, and I'm paraphrasing - a way to take your rolls-to-7 ratio from 1:6 to 1:6.5 or greater. When I first learned of the 3V set, I told myself "I can do that" and went on one of my nicer roll streaks, first try. I have no doubt it was a mathematical coincidence, but it certainly put me in the "It's totally doable" camp until math very quickly smacked me in the mouth... again.

So is dice control possible? yes... maybe. And after years and years of developing a very fine motor skill, you might be able to gain .9 points on your rolls to 7 ratio.

As a side note - my brain is currently on the "it's bullpoopy" side of the tennis court. My friend and I will almost always bet against anybody displaying standard practice of dice setting and "control". It has worked out in our favor, so far...



Just because you suck at throwing the dice doesn't mean everyone does. Oh, but keep being narrow minded though.
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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March 3rd, 2020 at 2:12:54 PM permalink
That escalated quickly.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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March 3rd, 2020 at 2:13:43 PM permalink
Quote: waterandice

You literally sound like one of the most narrow minded people ever.... Absolute lunacy.

For that wall of personal insults, take 3 days suspension.
You've lurked here long enough to realise how unacceptable that was.

He edited in an obscenity while I was acting. So lets make it 6 days.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.

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