gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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May 13th, 2017 at 10:11:24 PM permalink
I'm wondering how many people have been down this road, or if anyone thinks what I'm describing would yield any useful data.

I designed a very small electronically controlled automatic dice thrower that can be built for <$100. It uses a very simple electro-mechanical mechanism to lob the dice, in what I believe robe a very consistent manner, onto a small, desktop sized practice area with rubber backing+felt. A camera snaps a photo of the dice as they land, and feeds them to software program that accurately counts the pips.

A human needs to reset the throw mechanism and clear the dice as I haven't thought of a good way to do that automatically.

The purpose is not to 100% replicate a craps environment, but rather the outcome of machine thrown dice against a rubber backing, and comparing the results of set throws -vs- expected random outcome.

I feel like I've skimmed a lot of threads discussing such a scenerio, but I'm not sure how many throws it would take to get statistically significant data, or if such a experiment would result in any useful or interesting data.
DeMango
DeMango
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May 14th, 2017 at 11:49:38 AM permalink
A lot of people have been down this road, several threads in fact. You, the human, throws the dice. No one can exactly duplicate their throw. Every table has different bounce characteristics. No casino will let you put said machine on the table or on the rail. Your road just dead ended.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
DiscreteMaths2
DiscreteMaths2
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May 14th, 2017 at 3:00:40 PM permalink
How many throws it takes will depend on how much you think your technique influences the dice. For the amount of control people claims exist I think a ballpark of 1,000 rolls would cover it pretty good. Although if you think it might just have a small impact it could take a lot more throws than that.

We already know that dice are deterministic on a normal throw on a normal surface but you introducing the proper craps table surfaces would be very interesting because you could show if the table effectively defeats any attempt of any plausible precision.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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May 15th, 2017 at 6:44:43 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

A lot of people have been down this road, several threads in fact. You, the human, throws the dice. No one can exactly duplicate their throw. Every table has different bounce characteristics. No casino will let you put said machine on the table or on the rail. Your road just dead ended.


I understand the machine (hopefully) throws more consistently than a human. But that's not the point of the experiment. The idea is to test whether or not the inditial state of the dice have any effect on the outcome of a roll.

Quote: DiscreteMaths2

How many throws it takes will depend on how much you think your technique influences the dice. For the amount of control people claims exist I think a ballpark of 1,000 rolls would cover it pretty good. Although if you think it might just have a small impact it could take a lot more throws than that.

We already know that dice are deterministic on a normal throw on a normal surface but you introducing the proper craps table surfaces would be very interesting because you could show if the table effectively defeats any attempt of any plausible precision.


Interesting, so people have spent the time to create a dice throwing machine, but never threw them against a rubber craps table backing and had them land on a felt surface? If that's the case, or at least no one has done it publicly, I may continue.

If I tinker more I'll post a video, but the device uses a pinball coil that normally launches a ball, to push the dice off a small ramp. I imagine it's closer to completely consistent throes than a human could achieve
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
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May 15th, 2017 at 8:05:56 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

The purpose is not to 100% replicate a craps environment, but rather the outcome of machine thrown dice against a rubber backing, and comparing the results of set throws -vs- expected random outcome.



Gamer,

Too cool! Pure research with no direct application (yet) to casino craps.

Lemmie see if I understand correctly: You set the dice in a consistent fashion, trigger the throw, and record the results. Then, you examine the results and determine whether observed data compares well or poorly with results expected from random data.

At the most basic level, just comparing observed and expected counts for each outcome (2 through 12) would be an easy first step. You may want to compare observed/expected 7s vs. non-7 rolls. Having fewer data "categories" (2 vs. 11) will more quickly show any actual, statistically significant difference.

But, the way you set the dice may not be best if you are trying to minimize the count of 7s vs. the expected count of 7s. Not to worry. With your data, you should be able to "back calculate" whether some different dice set might have shown greater divergence. Maybe use dice with two different colors, so you could track which die to set differently to improve your outcome.

As you get more and more data -- with dice set in a consistent manner each throw -- it should be easy to calculate the likelihood of a statistically significant difference. Not sure if your research will have any practical application in the casino, but it sure sounds like a lot of fun if you enjoy this kind of data analysis. As you have data to share, please feel free to post it. I'm sure the statistics pros will help you analyze it up one side and down the other.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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May 15th, 2017 at 8:36:58 AM permalink
I enjoy the tinkering more than the data analysis. Electronics and programming is my strong suit, math is not. I'd post the raw data here if I collect enough to possibly be statistically significant.

In terms of how the dice are set, my thinking is that since this is a dice experiment rather than a craps experiment, it would not matter how they are set as long as it's consistent through each trial (obviously). I'd be willing to set them any way that would be most interesting, though.

As far as colored dice go, since my plan is to collect all the data electronically, my computer program could differentiate the colors and tabulate the data accordingly if it was a worthwhile endeavor.
DiscreteMaths2
DiscreteMaths2
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May 15th, 2017 at 9:20:46 AM permalink
"To summarize, the die throw is neither random nor chaotic. From the point of view of dynamical system theory, the result of the die throw is predictable. Practically, the predictability can be realized only when the die is thrown by a special device which allows to set very precisely the initial conditions. We show that the probability, that the die lands on the face which is the lowest, is larger than on any other face, i.e., the dice are not fair by the dynamics. It is not enough for a die which is fair by symmetry to be fair by dynamics. By mechanical experiments or simulations, one cannot construct the die which is fair by continuity. If an experienced player can reproduce the initial conditions with small finite uncertainty, there is a good chance that the desired final state will be obtained.

The probabilities of landing on any face approach the same value 1/n only for the large values of the initial rotational energy and a great number of die bounces on table x. In the limit case when x approaches infinity , the die throw can be considered as a chaotic process. This can be done in computer simulations but not in the real experiment when a die is thrown from the hand or the cup as due to the limitation of the initial energy the die can bounce only a few times. The dynamics of the die is also chaotic in the case of the die bouncing on the oscillating table."

In their experiment the dice were dropped from 60cm onto a cork tabletop.

http://kapitaniak.kdm.p.lodz.pl/papers/2012/Kapitaniak_Strzalko_Grabski_Kapitaniak.pdf

My hypothesis is that a legal craps throw and back wall strike provide enough dice bounces to make it effectively random but if you want to take the time you might be able to show there is still some influence possible under the right conditions.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
alphastorm
alphastorm
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May 18th, 2017 at 8:09:51 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

I'd be willing to set them any way that would be most interesting, though.

As far as colored dice go, since my plan is to collect all the data electronically, my computer program could differentiate the colors and tabulate the data accordingly if it was a worthwhile endeavor.



Set it hardways with different color dice. I'm interested in the results.
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
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May 19th, 2017 at 8:00:07 AM permalink
Quote: alphastorm

Set it hardways with different color dice. I'm interested in the results.



Alpha,

I'm all for that! As long as gamerfreak identifies the exact dice set and uses it exclusively, we can get some (possibly) interesting data about gamer's launcher device.

Ummm... Please describe the exact "hardways" set you would like gamer to use, OK?

I believe I've been shown more different "hardway" dice sets than there are dice sets total. Some promise to return hard doubles. Some avoid them. Some avoid sevens. Some favor inside numbers. Some so-called "hardway" dice sets are championed "because they work best," whatever that might mean in a given situation.

When I use my practice layout, I always use different colored dice, and the red die is always left-most in my set. Then, I record the results as a 2-digit number with the red die in 2nd position. For example: 56 or 65 as come-out winners and 12 or 21 as come-out losers. Of course, gamer may decide to record data differently.

It all sounds great! Good luck, gamerfreak!
DeMango
DeMango
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Thanks for this post from:
TropicalElectri
May 19th, 2017 at 11:29:29 AM permalink
Until you get a human to duplicate the machine that duplicates the human you will have a pile of useless data. Why does this crap come up every two years or so?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.

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