True test of your SRR

I would think that you would be able to make the most money by passline+max odds and continuous come+max odds,

But if you are concerned with having to repeat numbers, why not place+buy everything and start getting paid with every throw? No need to hit them all once before you are paid, plus you are paid every time you repeat.

All of those have a lower HE than ATS, I believe, so you wouldn't need as big a change to the SRR to be able to profit.

Quote: RaleighCraps

I assume one of the casinos to be my beloved Beau Rivage? This is indeed sad news for me. Every trip I took there after they installed that bet, I won the S/A/T on the first craps session I played! That pays $1,225 for the $15 I put out there (although you have to reload for those pesky 7 comeout winners). So I was playing ahead right from the start. Sure helps the mindset. I saw the Small or Tall hit so much that first time I really expected them to pull the bet before I ever got back there. I really like that bet.

Good news for you: Harrah's went from Fire Bet to ATS. Golden Nugget dropped ATS as did Hard Rock. Hard Rock now has Crapless.

Thanks Sally. If I'm reading that screenshot right, they follow the Ayecarumba philosophy of all sevens being equally likely, as well as all non-sevens.

Enjoy your pizza.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I don't claim to be a successful DI but I certainly try to influence the dice. Why would I play the game if I wasn't trying to win? Is there any "naysayer" on this forum who plays craps and throws the dice without the intention or goal of winning?

What are you trying to say here, Alan?

We all play to win.

Most of us, myself included, do not bother to set the dice: you do.

Why?

What is the point?

Are you trying to unconsciously develop some form of "skill?"

How would you know if you were to acquire it?

You admit that you are not a "successful DI," so why not just be a "flinger?"

There's no shame in being a random roller; hell, we ALL are.

Leave Fantasyland and just chill.

see

Quote: Wizard

Thanks Sally. If I'm reading that screenshot right, they follow the Ayecarumba philosophy of all sevens being equally likely, as well as all non-sevens.

Enjoy your pizza.

i do not know about the taco bell thing
i just showed what can easily be done in a free software (Steen, you nice boy)
i had another prob-dist selected and that also showed crushing the ats bet but i do not remember where that one came from
it is way way different at a 6.4SRR and still crushes the all

added:
i think i remember your friend BruceZ (yes that handsome man) helped steen with the math on the all-tall-small in wc pro
just adds some weight (boy due I know about that! I am so fat)

but off for now
<<<<<>>>>>
the pizza was great until the 1st game just ended
I bet the OVER at 8
so i did not bet the 1st game 2 days ago,
my hubby bet yesterday on the under, and got lucky to win
and this lucky girl gets lucky again on game #1 today with another push!

the 8 runs are fun, i watch baseball to see base-runners and scoring runs

game 2 after some drinks and a shower
more coming over (work is out)

Quote: AlanMendelson

Mustang Sally, no one is stopping you from also betting the 2 while you also are betting the STA. But the 2 is a hop bet -- you have one chance at it. With the STA if it takes you a hundred rolls to get all the numbers you can take those 100 rolls as long as you don't roll a 7.

still the hop bet 2 wins more often than the small bet
that is from the math
but cuz there are 2 of those, small and tall, you could win one but not the other
that probability should be P(small) + P(tall) - P(all)
in numbers
0.026354 + 0.026354 - 0.005258 = 0.04745 or abouts 1 in 21
way easier than just 1 in 38 for just small or tall

so your feelings from playing this bet now, the casino loves you too, that the ats, sta, sat, bonus ,feature,
wowwowwow (i called it that)
wins more often than the Fire bet is right-in-line-with-the-math
but
you knew that

you on!
Huntington Beach come next week
surf's up!

Quote: Wizard

If he cares to address that, I'm all ears. After the whole 1/6 debacle, I'm in no mood to ask.

What ever happen to that? Are they still talking about it on his site?

Quote: MrV

We all play to win.

Most of us, myself included, do not bother to set the dice: you do.

Why?

What is the point?

So what are you doing to try to win? Are you using prayer? Positive thought? Wishful thinking? Using moisture from your beer to moisten the dice so they stick together?

Is a random chuck of the dice down the table, bouncing all over an attempt to win or are you doing exactly what the casino wants you to do -- be a random number generator?

Everyone should be setting the dice. Everyone should try to throw the dice so that they hit the wall lightly and bounce lightly with as few rotations as possible. That is the only way to "try to win" unless you have mind over matter powers. Do you have mind over matter powers? How do you try to get the dice to hit your numbers?

This is why the anti-DI arguments are so silly. Everyone should be trying to be a DI. That doesn't mean you have to pay someone to practice or teach. But it does mean you should take two dice and practice gripping and throwing. Honestly -- can it hurt to try?

Answer that please: can it hurt to try?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Answer that please: can it hurt to try?

You can try it 10 times and fail. But as soon as it "works" and you win...then you're convinced it works, and justify the losses as "variance" and the big wins as "See? It works!".

So yes, it most definitely does hurt. Which is why I despise such DI and other losing gambling systems, as it just tricks innocent people into thinking they have a legitimate way to win, and they inevitably lose.

Quote: AlanMendelson

...Answer that please: can it hurt to try?

Ask yourself this...if you sit in a cockpit and no clue how to fly, would you still "try" to fly?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Ask yourself this...if you sit in a cockpit and no clue how to fly, would you still "try" to fly?

If the pilot was unconscious or dead, I sure would try to fly.

Quote: AlanMendelson

If the pilot was unconscious or dead, I sure would try to fly.

Not what I meant. You have to take off, fly and land by yourself.

Quote: RS

You can try it 10 times and fail. But as soon as it "works" and you win...then you're convinced it works, and justify the losses as "variance" and the big wins as "See? It works!".

So yes, it most definitely does hurt. Which is why I despise such DI and other losing gambling systems, as it just tricks innocent people into thinking they have a legitimate way to win, and they inevitably lose.

I see. So in order to prove to the world that "systems" don't work, you are not going to try to win at craps when the casino willingly gives you the dice?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Not what I meant. You have to take off, fly and land by yourself.

Do you really want me to respond to this?

Unless you are playing card craps, the casino gives a player the dice to roll. You roll. Are you going to roll the dice and be the casino's random number generator, or are you going to roll the dice attempting to have the dice hit the number that will benefit you?

Even the Nevada Gaming Commission recognizes that the shooter will attempt to hit numbers that will benefit the shooter. And the NGC permits this as long as certain rules are followed.

Quote: AlanMendelson

So what are you doing to try to win? ... Answer that please: can it hurt to try?

In my attempts to win I make reasonably smart bets such as PL/odds or place six and eight, and hope for variance, aka luck.

That's it.

That's enough.

As for whether it can hurt to try DI, I think it can, and does.

We are all just random number generators at the craps table, and most dice setters fiddle with the dice, painstakingly arranging them "just so:" it slows the pace of the game down and frankly is very annoying.

More importantly, anyone who seriously attempts to walk down the DI road will, of necessity, fail; this leads to self-doubt, frustration, a cursing of their fate, and a diminution of joy at playing the game.

The question you should ask is not "can it hurt?"

The question you should ask is "does it help?"

Maybe I'll shout from the rooftops that loudly passing wind at the moment the dice are tossed will result in winning sessions; sure, I'll talk it up on the boards, start a site dedicated to it, ghost write favorable anecdotes and author a book or two extolling the wonders of how farting resoundingly results in good craps.

You've just got to believe.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Wanting to win and trying to win are very different. You can want to win without trying to win. Unless you're going to argue that placing a bet is technically trying to win.

If 5 people are placing bets on the field and you're doing the same thing. You may be trying/wanting to win and the others may be trying/wanting to lose. It won't make a difference who's trying to win to lose.

Quote: AxelWolf

Maybe It has autopilot and you could mess it up by trying.

If you can have influence on dice and you don't know what you're doing it may have the opposite affect. So trying could actually hurt you.

This is exactly right. If you try to influence the dice and fail, nothing happens. But if you try and succeed, then the dice distribution is changed. But how do you know that the distribution has improved the EV of the bets you're making? It's entirely possible that the way the dice are influenced, if they are at all, is worse for the gambler.

Alan, how do you know your throwing technique is aligned with your betting patterns? Have you done the math or are you just assuming?

Quote: MathExtremist

This is exactly right. If you try to influence the dice and fail, nothing happens. But if you try and succeed, then the dice distribution is changed. But how do you know that the distribution has improved the EV of the bets you're making? It's entirely possible that the way the dice are influenced, if they are at all, is worse for the gambler.

Alan, how do you know your throwing technique is aligned with your betting patterns? Have you done the math or are you just assuming?

If you assume that throwing the dice is partially skill and not luck, then by definition, your lack of skill counts against you as much as your skill counts for you on average.

There is an underlying assumption that if dice control is possible then the people who are attempting it are doing it the right way.

I think those are two assumptions that are independenet of one another, and therefore if dice control does exist, then it has a 50/50 chance of helping versus hurting unless you also know that you're doing it the right way (the half of the possible ways to influence the dice in a way that helps instead of hurts your return on a given roll).

It's just not so simple in my view.

And it is definitely too much work.

Video games are a better place to work on hand-to-eye coordination for AP in my world these days.

Where's dicesitter? Haven't seen anything from him in a while. Hopefully he is well and finally found the golden touch and is to busy cleaning up.

Quote: MathExtremist

Alan, how do you know your throwing technique is aligned with your betting patterns? Have you done the math or are you just assuming?

Alan M has said many many times that you have to keep playing and the longer you play the better chance you have to win something and see a winning event that is way-out-there.

He also says DI is the only way to win at craps
that is a lie 100%

#1) loss rebates are 1 that works for many
#2) bet selection - making the right bet at the right time - increasing your winning percentage is another
My Lay bets are proof of that - I am a lifetime winner on just the Lay 4 and Lay 10 bets

#3) money management is another with bet selection
you can not win if you keep betting in a short session for example
the pass line when it wins only 1 out of 9 every time
you go broke and now do not have enough session bankroll to ride the next winning wave, that , by-the-math- will come

many are born losers - meaning they are born to lose, no matter what they do
some-one has to be them, not me

but, imo
Alan M plays the part of a ploppy for attention only

that is so sweet
Mully

Quote: mustangsally

Alan M has said many many times that you have to keep playing and the longer you play the better chance you have to win something and see a winning event that is way-out-there.

He also says DI is the only way to win at craps
that is a lie 100%

#1) loss rebates are 1 that works for many
#2) bet selection - making the right bet at the right time - increasing your winning percentage is another
My Lay bets are proof of that - I am a lifetime winner on just the Lay 4 and Lay 10 bets

#3) money management is another with bet selection
you can not win if you keep betting in a short session for example
the pass line when it wins only 1 out of 9 every time
you go broke and now do not have enough session bankroll to ride the next winning wave, that , by-the-math- will come

many are born losers - meaning they are born to lose, no matter what they do
some-one has to be them, not me

but, imo
Alan M plays the part of a ploppy for attention only

that is so sweet
Mully

Coupons work too. Free bets, match plays, etc.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I dont claim to have any control, and I can't influence the dice to hit or target particular numbers.

But I do use the cross-sixes set which, with a soft throw, can minimize the appearance of the 7. And if I can throw the dice enough times without a seven showing I can sometimes hit the small or the tall and sometimes both...

Alan, when using this set to minimize sevens, do you find that the resulting numbers are randomly distributed, or are there certain ones that come up more often than others, both when the toss is optimal and when it is off axis?

The cross six set favors the outside numbers. I have trouble hitting 6 and 8.

Quote: AlanMendelson

The cross six set favors the outside numbers.

Really?

And you know this HOW?

Seriously man, if in fact you can PROVE that it "favors the outside numbers", then VOILA!

You will have adduced the proof you need to quiet your numerous detractors.

Now cough up that proof: you'll recognize it when you see it, it'll look sort of like a hairball, but it will stay on axis as it leaps from your lips then comes to rest oh so softly against the wall..

Quote: AlanMendelson

The cross six set favors the outside numbers. I have trouble hitting 6 and 8.

Two words: field bet.

If you're successfully reducing the probability of 6, 7, and 8 -- and that's not somehow being counteracted by an increased probability of 5 -- then you should have an edge on the field bet every single roll. No need to wait a dozen rolls to win a bet like the all tall/small. Start with a $500 bankroll, a $10 bet, and keep betting 2% of your bankroll (round down to the nearest $5) until have all the money. With depressed frequency of 6, 7, 8, you very likely have more than a 2% edge on the bet so Kelly is the way to go.

If you end up busting the casino with your dice-throwing prowess, please toke me a case of 25 yo Macallan (sherry oak) as a thank-you gesture.

I press the outside before I press the inside. I don't think I ever made a field bet in the 20+ years I've been playing craps.

But I don't claim any ability to target certain numbers.

Why make a bet on the field for even money when I can buy the 4 and 10?

This thread has gotten way off track.

I started it suggesting that anyone claiming to be a DI with a good SRR would be well served making the STA bets. And it turned into just another debate about DI.

Typical.

Quote: AlanMendelson

And it turned into just another debate about DI.

Typical.

You did that yourself. And I agree.

Quote: AlanMendelson

The cross six set favors the outside numbers. I have trouble hitting 6 and 8.

if that trouble (that is a fun game to play) is having each show with a prob of less than 5/36 on any roll
then you ARE a DI

no MLB pitcher has EVER thrown 100 strikes in a row
can never happen and never has been documented in an actual game
<<<<<>>>>>
so you ARE gifted
lucky (why you?)
no matter

now to find out the degree of the gift you have (is it cuz of your meds?)
and what bets to make when you are the shooter (the only one- a private table)
<<<<<<>>>>>>
my movers are here
I can be in Huntington Beach next weekend to watch you set and softly toss the dice and have them very lightly touch the other wall. that may be a problem in most casinos.
you do not have to be successful every roll, that IS silly thoughts you need to get rid-of-in-my-opinion

no big deal
an advantage is just that

How many Millions of $$$$ do you want per year to shoot the dice at a private table?
no rush to an answer (except answer by end-of-today)
this is important NOW

see you in CT

Quote: AlanMendelson

But I don't claim any ability to target certain numbers.

less 6 and 8s than random is all that is required.
that is WAY better than dicceeseeetteerre that rolls mor 6 and 8s

you have the gift

Lucky Man

Quote: AlanMendelson

Why make a bet on the field for even money when I can buy the 4 and 10?

This thread has gotten way off track.

I started it suggesting that anyone claiming to be a DI with a good SRR would be well served making the STA bets. And it turned into just another debate about DI.

If the field bet where you play is an even-money bet, don't make it. The field bet where I play pays 2x on 2 and 3x on 12. It's a *far* better bet than STA for a +EV player and if you're depressing the frequency of 6s and 8s, will have a greater player edge than the STA bets.

In other words, your suggestion is not only incorrect, it's based on an assumption that the SRR metric is valuable (which it is not, except for the any-7 bet). Rather than making untested, unexamined suggestions on who would be well served making which bets, you should learn to calculate the edge on these bets yourself based on altered dice probabilities using Excel or WinCraps. If you use those tools, you'll be able to understand and quantify how the edge varies with your theorized influence. You say you depress the frequency of 6 and 8 -- what's the best bet given that new frequency? You don't know. You could, but you don't appear willing to do the work to find out.

I appreciate your simulations.

I also like the real money wins on the STA bets.

Long before I heard of DI I was told not to bet the field. I guess I'll have to reconsider that.

Ahigh might remember that hand I had at Caesars when his friend was at my table. I established the point of six then threw for another half hour without making the pass. Too bad Caesars didn't have the STA bet.

Luck happens.

You hit a $100K royal because of luck.

You rolled for a half hour because of luck.

You've won on STA bets because of: yeah, you know what.

Quote: MrV

Luck happens.

You hit a $100K royal because of luck.

You rolled for a half hour because of luck.

You've won on STA bets because of: yeah, you know what.

Just out of curiosity -- when does any win in a casino become skill?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Just out of curiosity -- when does any win in a casino become skill?

easy
when you select the right side of a bet
2 examples

I bet $1,100 on the baseball game this morning (Tex and Tor)
got 7.5 OVER
It is tied at 8 runs
so I won,
well the game still has to finish today for me to win and collect my $2,100
I won because of my skill in deciding between OVER and UNDER
I know baseball and all about scoring runs
(the 1st 4 games of MLB playoffs were no overs)

example #2
You Alan are the shooter playing craps at CP (yuk)
you set the point of 6.
I am also at the table
I know most shooters can not win their point with a probability greater than 50%

so I challenge you verbally
"Hey, shooter, you going to win that point or just 7 out like the rest of the shooters"
that will get under ur skin and i wait to see how you re-act

of course, you say you will win but i can see you are *extremely agitated* by my question (or questioning)
Sally says "$6,000 NO 6 dealer" and "$100 NO 6 for the Boys"
I want that 7 out real fast shooter!

Come on
don't do it
don't go there
<<<<<<>>>>>>
Dealer on the very next Alan soft throw (a short roll)
"7 out , line away"

That is skill on my part (and allowed)
no luck on your part, just my skill you went OUT!

Quote: AlanMendelson

I appreciate your simulations.

no simulations were used and required
simple math any high school kid can due

very nice you said "thank you" in a few different words
that is so COOL!
not much thanks in these threads these days

Quote: AlanMendelson

I also like the real money wins on the STA bets.

sure you do
how about real $$$ wins taking Millions of $$$ from the casino over a weekend of play

CAN U DUE THAT WITH YOUR STA bet?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Long before I heard of DI I was told not to bet the field. I guess I'll have to reconsider that.

only bet the Field when you KNOW it is going to win
that should be easy to understand

Quote: AlanMendelson

Ahigh might remember that hand I had at Caesars when his friend was at my table. I established the point of six then threw for another half hour without making the pass. Too bad Caesars didn't have the STA bet.

Ahigh does not care about being a Craps God
it takes too much work
i due not care either

ok
game end!
my house is empty!

thank you for sharing Alan M!
you on!

Quote: mustangsally

Ahigh does not care about being a Craps God

I'm beginning to feel like a Craps God, Craps God.

All my people from the front to back nod, back nod.

Quote: teddys

I'm beginning to feel like a Craps God, Craps God.

All my people from the front to back nod, back nod.

Now who thinks their toss is long enough to Greek shot, Greek shot

They said I throw like a robot, so call me crap-bot

Quote: AlanMendelson

Just out of curiosity -- when does any win in a casino become skill?

*waves hand*

Poker involves skill, as does sports betting, BJ (counting, edge sorting etc.) and VP (play perfect strategy every time).

That's all, folks.

Quote: BlueEagle

I decided to play this a few weeks ago at Excalibur. I threw out $3 "for ATS" and the dealer didn't know what I was wanting. Their understood initialism for the bet is SAT, but they refer to it as "future bet". The layout on the Excalibur tables has vertical rows for each bet and columns for each player, with Small on top, All in the middle and Tall on bottom.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Bellagio has a different layout for the small all tall bets and the layout has boxes labeled SMALL ALL TALL in that order, left to right.
Bellagio calls them the "feature bets."

Apparently I misheard the dealer at Excalibur because it is called the "feature" bet. Here's a photo of the layout on Excalibur's tables. When a number is rolled, a lammer is placed on the corresponding number in front of the bank. Bets are placed in the column corresponding to the player's position at the table.

Quote: AlanMendelson

That I've won money at it. Does that work for you?

No. I've won money on a scratch of ticket before, doesn't mean its a good idea to play it.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I dont claim to have any control, and I can't influence the dice to hit or target particular numbers.

But I do use the cross-sixes set which, with a soft throw, can minimize the appearance of the 7. And if I can throw the dice enough times without a seven showing I can sometimes hit the small or the tall and sometimes both.

So far, I have had outstanding luck. I have hit either the small or the tall several times, and hit the all once.

As I've written before, I hit the ALL after making only two passes. Usually, two passes is not enough to give any player a substantial win -- but I won big because I had $5 on each of the small, tall and all bets.

And last week I had $25 on the small, tall and all and hit the tall for a very nice payday and again I only made two passes.

I'll say it again: if anyone thinks they can minimize the appearance of the 7 they'd be silly not to make these bets. And you don't need a monster roll to make a lot of money -- just five numbers will make you a nice return, and you win the whole ball of wax with just ten throws of the dice -- WITHOUT THE NEED TO THROW EVEN ON REPEATER.

I hit the all the very first time I played on that layout, so talking about having rolled it before means literally nothing to me, I've hit the all/small/tall bets multiple times. It, however, is not a sound investment of my money. That's what I'm trying to get at, there are better ways to make a buck than to bet that bet or all of them.

Dice control and Dice influence have VERY little to do with the bet. A smart DI player wouldn't bet the bet in the first place, and even if he were able to control the dice so well that he could hit them, he'd have better bets available to him to use to hit those numbers. You talk about 176 for 1 as if its some great accomplishment, show me a guy who can roll a 12 three times in a row and I'll show you a guy who made 27,xxx:1.

As a DI, I wouldn't dream of placing these bets (well obviously a guy who could guarantee roll 12's three times in a row would certainly see my money :P). As I've mentioned countless times before, the influence on the dice is only PART of the equation, not the whole. One of the other parts of the equation is how you bet. Some are awful at it, some are wonderful at it, and some are truly gamblers despite the edge, and try to maximize the value of a dollar by placing bets like the ATS bets or hardways or whatever, and if they make money, great, awesome for them, but it came down to luck more than science and mathematics, and that's just not my "Cup'o'tea".

Quote: MrV

Yes, any book about so-called "DI" must, ipso facto, be labeled a "novel."

Pulp fiction.

A belief system brought about by hope, desperation, cupidity and stupidity.

I guess you didn't get my intention with that comment.

When I say write a novel, I'm not talking about becoming the next Frank Scoblete, I'm talking about writing a long winded post on a forum to basically break it all down for those that can't quite grasp an idea.

My apologies if you actually thought I was talking about writing a novel for realsies.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Absent actual data, isn't it all a thought exercise? Assume each of the remaining combinations goes up 1/30th of a percent for every percent the seven is reduced. In other words, if no seven...random.

2 & 12 = +0.0333 each
3 & 11 = +0.0667 each
4 & 10 = +0.1000 each
5 & 9 = +0.1333 each
6 & 8 = +0.1667 each
7 = -1%

This represents a shooter whose goal is not to hit a certain number, but to only avoid any seven. They have no way to make a particular number come up more frequently, but they can consistently make a particular number appear less frequently.

Would it work better to say that the shooter can make the 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 and 12 appear more frequently than random?

On another topic, I don't know what happens to these three bets if the shooter throws a two, three or 12 coming out, then decides to pass the dice; or is shooting from the Don't and loses when they makes the point. Do the STA bets stay up and carry over to the next shooter?

The 2,3,12 will be marked "hit" and the new shooter continues the roll, at every property I've seen that at, and in some properties they might make an offer to have their bets back, but why would they with those bad boys knocked out?

As for the discussion about a number having less frequency, we must remember that in this practice of theory, if a specific number (more specifically a combination) shows up less frequently, then another number would have to show up more frequently. The probabilities themselves could not possibly change since there are and always will be 6 sides to the two dice, but if they were thrown in such a way to limit a specific set of numbers from ever appearing, say a 6-1, then in theory, a combination of numbers must come up more frequently to account for this. If we assume that the 6-1 are axis numbers, and that they themselves are the limited combination, then we can start compiling a more "probable" list of frequent/infrequent numbers given our new outcomes. 2-2,2-3,2-4,2-5, 3-2,3-3,3-4,3-5, 4-2,4-3,4-4,4-5, 5-2,5-3,5-4,5-5.

We get 16 combinations of dice to be thrown in this theory, all 4 hard ways, 4 sevens, 12 "point" numbers, no potential "outside extremes", odds of rolling a 7 are 1:4.

Now, I bring this up because it is the most common and frequent "dice set" used by so called "DI's". If thrown correctly with even rotation on their axis, this set can and has absolutely wrecked casinos before, the problem is when you lose rotation control. If you lose the control of the rotation, your odds even if on their axis, increase the likelihood of the 7 appearing, rather than reducing them. It would, however, make for a reallllllly advantageous don't player. Now I'm not saying that I make my bread and butter on other players (but I often do), but when I see these guys trying to "DI" and I'm recognizing their axis control and qualifying them through their rolls, I've been known to lay heavy money on a 4/10 w/4+10HW's as protection and absolutely wreck a casino.

Back to the thread, the real issue with DI and these prop bets like the ATS bets are the attractions. They grab hold of the gambler inside of you. The reality of the situation, however, is how much you'll effectively bet to get that 176 for 1 return. While a 176 for 1 return is great, if I have to wager $50 on it ($1 at a time) before I ever hit one, I'm only really making $176 for 50, and that's barely better than buying a 4/10, with the added benefit of reaping the benefits immediately and being able to hit it multiple times during that session.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I started this thread simply to point out that anyone who claims to have a superior SRR should be making this bet. Anyone who says they are a "good shooter" or has some success with DI would be foolish not to make these STA bets because they are easier to win than making the points in the Fire Bet. The Fire Bet requires that you establish the point and roll the number again -- the STA only requires that you roll each number once, and that's a gift from the casinos even if it is difficult to do.

This next statement is meant for those on this forum who say they have some influence on the dice: Guys (gals) if you really have any influence, adjust your throw or set to increase your SRR and make the STA bets. There is no easier way to make money.

Again, explain why someone would be foolish not to bet it if they have a "Solid" SRR? Legitimately explain it, don't give me some cockamamie BS about its payout, or that you could put a dollar on it. Explain to me, why I'd be better off betting that bet with an infinite bankroll, than any other bet on the table.

Also, yes, there are much easier ways to make money on the table than the ATS/STA bets.

Quote: AlanMendelson

The cross six set favors the outside numbers. I have trouble hitting 6 and 8.

It "supposedly" does in theory, and that theory is based on the axis of your dice and the rotation of your throw. I know a guy who throws cross sixes as his set, as a so called "DI" and just RAILS the 6/8 combination. Why? Because his axial tilt, pitch/yaw mechanics of his throw.

A simple dice set and practiced throw, does not make oneself a DI.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I press the outside before I press the inside. I don't think I ever made a field bet in the 20+ years I've been playing craps.

But I don't claim any ability to target certain numbers.

Why make a bet on the field for even money when I can buy the 4 and 10?

This thread has gotten way off track.

I started it suggesting that anyone claiming to be a DI with a good SRR would be well served making the STA bets. And it turned into just another debate about DI.

Typical.

Why bet the field? Because if you're supposedly able to hit more outside numbers than inside numbers, you have a monster edge. On top of that 2:1 with a possible 3:1 payout on the 12, of which your dice are set to hit. Unlike a horn/horn high bet, if you went with the field, you'd have a bet that would stay up indefinitely, except for the occurrence of the 5, and given that there are only 4/36 ways to make a 5 for a random roller, you could reduce that significantly by making the 4 and 3, or 4 and 2 your axis.

Actually, now that I"m thinking about it, do you actually know what the "possible" numbers are for your cross six the way you throw them? Have you actually taken the time out to figure out your possible combinations for an on-axis roll?

Exoter I don't know any DIs who could even hope to hit three 12s in a row. But if you think betting midnight straight up is better than the STA then do it.

Four in a row is what I watch for. I've now seen a random shooter do it once. Never seen a controlled shooter deliver four in a row of anything. I've done three in a row about twenty something times, and I've shot enough that I would expect to see four in a row just randomly eventually if I were still trying (I'm not). But I haven't seen anything to indicate to myself that I have any better shot at four in a row than anyone else, really. Looks like it is more likely to be random chance that I hit a few more hardways than the next guy when I am attempting controlled shooting.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Exoter I don't know any DIs who could even hope to hit three 12s in a row. But if you think betting midnight straight up is better than the STA then do it.

I'm not suggesting anyone can, or that its better, I'm just saying there's better ways to make money on the table than the STA/ATS bets. In terms of "bang for your buck" the STA/ATS is fucking awful, and no DI in the world should ever bet it if they are a true DI, because they WOULD KNOW better than to waste their money on it.

Yet here you are insinuating that if DI were a real thing, a true DI would be foolish NOT to bet it and try for it, with literally zero reasoning behind "why" you think that. And honestly, you haven't even answered that much for me yet.


WHY, AlanMendelson, should I EVER pursue this bet? What makes it so "good" in your eyes?

Quote: Ahigh

Four in a row is what I watch for. I've now seen a random shooter do it once. Never seen a controlled shooter deliver four in a row of anything. I've done three in a row about twenty something times, and I've shot enough that I would expect to see four in a row just randomly eventually if I were still trying (I'm not). But I haven't seen anything to indicate to myself that I have any better shot at four in a row than anyone else, really. Looks like it is more likely to be random chance that I hit a few more hardways than the next guy when I am attempting controlled shooting.

A few months ago I was just "on" that night. After doing alright on crapless, we moved to the craps table. On my first roll on that table, I had 6 comeout rolls, 32 rolls in between, and the final 7. I hit one point (a 6) and the second point that I would not hit was the 9. I rolled 4 7's on my comeout roll (intentionally set to do so). The roll went something like this.

CO: 7
CO: 6
PR: 4,10,10,10 (i decided to place the 4 and 10 from my original placement of 17 inside + max odds on my 6 on a 10x table) next roll, 6.
CO: 7
CO: 7
CO: 7
CO: 9
PR: 6,6,6,8,8,4,4,10,6,8,11,11,2,2,3,11,6,8,10,10,10,10,10,4,10,8,5
7 out.

That segment towards the end where I had 5 tens in a row, the last 4 were done the hard way. I stayed for the roll after me, putting up $6 across for the dealers, and myself up 32A-including, just for funsies. Guy went on a longer roll than I, hit a 4 point fire, and I made about $400 on his roll. On mine, however, hitting the 10 seven times AFTER i placed it, and the 4 three times, I ended up making nearly $1700 from my roll. A gentlman at the table who kept placing hardways, made something like 12 grand on my roll, partly from parlaying his hard 10's/4s. He hit two $56 hard 10's and one $56 hard 4, collecting on both. Unlike me, he was up 32A-including from the start, and full pressed most of the way through my roll, including his $5 horn high aces he would press $5 every time it hit, where I rolled 6 consecutive horn numbers and finally missed on the 7th roll to hit his $35 horn. When my roll was over, he tossed me a couple black chips, said "thanks for the luck kid" and walked away with purples and oranges. I had a nice colorful array myself, but that guy really grabbed the roll by the horns (no pun intended) and ran with it. For me, I generally just sat there and pressed my 4/10 and 6/8 together, so when my first 4 hit, I'd drop a dollar and press each $5, when the 6/8 would hit, I'd drop $5 and press each $6, and from there, each hit (at 2 units a piece) would go up a unit until I reached 24 on the 6/8 or 25 on the 4/10. From 24 on the 6/8, the next hit would go $30 from 24, and from 30 to 60, once both were at 30, they'd go up together again. I just have a "thing" about collecting $22 from the press on the 6/8 going to $30 individually, rather than together, and then holding its counterpart at 30 until the other collected its $22 and went to 30, from there they press 30-60-120 then usually collect on a roll or two, and then we go 240-300 and stop.

IT was, however, the 4/10 that "won" this day. on the first 4/10 roll they each went $10, then $15, then $20, then $25, then $50, then $100, then $200, then $300. As we can see, I collected twice on my bought $300 4/10 right before the end of the roll. Had I been across from the start, I'd have collected four more hits on it at $300.

Now, I don't generally get to $300 often, usually I'm sitting right around that $50/60-$100/120 mark and collecting, but since I was already up from crapless, and already up on the roll from the max odd 6, I decided to be a little bit more "risky" by waiting later to cap out my 4/10. I do this mainly because of the likelihood that I'll get a 30+ roll (not counting comeouts) going. It wasn't the best roll I've ever had in my life, but I do believe it was a night where I threw the highest % of 4/10 I've ever thrown, as well as one of the most enjoyable nights I've had before due to the ridiculousness of how many hard ways I ended up throwing on that roll. I did dabble a little with cross 6's about midway through my roll where I rolled a bunch of horn numbers and felt like my rotation wasn't right for that set due to shooting essentially SR2.5 and not being familiar or comfortable with it, and switched back to hardways set.

I bring this up because 4 in a row is hard to do, hell 3 in a row is extremely hard to do, but also because I did it on the 4's and 10's, with maybe 2 easy ways thrown out of the whole bunch (I believe 14 4/10's were thrown, and 11/12 of them thrown the hard way). When it comes to 6's and 8's, I'm usually pretty consistent with that from SR1, and I've rolled countless 3+3 or 4+4's 3-4 times in a row before, but it seems like I could never do it on the 4's and 10's until this night. To my recollection, that is to this day the only time I've ever thrown a hard ten 4 times in a row, and I don't suspect I'll ever get to do it again, I only wish maybe I'd have tossed a dollar on the hard ways that night and parlayed them to $56 and started collecting.

Quote: Exoter175

I'm not suggesting anyone can, or that its better, I'm just saying there's better ways to make money on the table than the STA/ATS bets. In terms of "bang for your buck" the STA/ATS is fucking awful, and no DI in the world should ever bet it if they are a true DI, because they WOULD KNOW better than to waste their money on it.

Yet here you are insinuating that if DI were a real thing, a true DI would be foolish NOT to bet it and try for it, with literally zero reasoning behind "why" you think that. And honestly, you haven't even answered that much for me yet.

Assuming that anyone has the ability to swing the edge of a bet toward the player's favor with their throwing, it seems obvious that the right way to bet is on the bets that are closest to player favorable in the first place. That's line bet+odds, or at a high-odds table, put bets. Why on earth would you put yourself in a 7.5% hole with a prop bet, and even worse, one that you can't make whenever you want for as much action as you want?

The real point is this: if you have the edge, the last thing you want is big bankroll swings. You want the smallest variance you can find so you can realize a steady bankroll growth. Betting on a huge longshot like a 34-1 or 175-1 payout is a terrible idea from an investment standpoint (again, under the assumption of a player edge), expecially compared to payouts in the range of even-money or 2-1.

Quote: MathExtremist

Assuming that anyone has the ability to swing the edge of a bet toward the player's favor with their throwing, it seems obvious that the right way to bet is on the bets that are closest to player favorable in the first place. That's line bet+odds, or at a high-odds table, put bets. Why on earth would you put yourself in a 7.5% hole with a prop bet, and even worse, one that you can't make whenever you want for as much action as you want?

The real point is this: if you have the edge, the last thing you want is big bankroll swings. You want the smallest variance you can find so you can realize a steady bankroll growth. Betting on a huge longshot like a 34-1 or 175-1 payout is a terrible idea from an investment standpoint (again, under the assumption of a player edge), expecially compared to payouts in the range of even-money or 2-1.

Which is exactly what I'm talking about. Even if his 176 for 1 longshot hits 1 out of 50 times, that means he's wagering 50 for 176, or 3.52:1, and I'm being overly optimistic with that bet by magnitudes. I could buy the 4/10 for $25 and hit it twice and get a better return for my money. I think that's where Alan is lost in all of this. Just because you can wager a single dollar on it and get 176 for 1, doesn't mean you're actually only wagering $1 to hit it in the long run. The lilihood is much greater than 175:1 or they wouldn't offer those odds, but even if a DI could cut those odds in half, down to, say, 72.5:1, I'm still wagering 72.5 to make 176, or ~2.4:1 odds on a bet I can't hit more than once per roll. I'd rather lay the 4/10 on a CO and roll my 7's I can hit, or place a 6/8 and collect on them. It might cost more than $1, but the way I roll, I'm going to make a hell of a lot more money my way than going after that ATS/SAT/STA bet, especially so if its a number I can hit in my sleep like a 6/8 with max odds behind my pass line.


MathExtremist, if you were referring to my proposition for rolling the 12 three times in a row, it wasn't for advice on a "good" bet by comparison to Alan's "DI trap" of a bet, but rather, the fact that there are a lot more ways to make a giant payout than the STA if you're a DI, and if you can find one that rolls the 12 consistently, I'd rather bet my dollar on that guy's midnight than on the STA.

No, the prop bet was the STA bet. If the S hits and the T is still working, you can't re-bet the S. You have to wait until either the T (and A) hit or the 7-out shows. Meanwhile, you can make a line bet *every roll*. If you find a +EV situation, you want to get as much low-variance money on it as you can.

Quote: MathExtremist

No, the prop bet was the STA bet. If the S hits and the T is still working, you can't re-bet the S. You have to wait until either the T (and A) hit or the 7-out shows. Meanwhile, you can make a line bet *every roll*. If you find a +EV situation, you want to get as much low-variance money on it as you can.

Which is precisely why I'd rather wager my money elsewhere. On top of what you just mentioned, my place bets won't fall on a 7 during a comeout roll after a point has been made. The STA bets will, and I dislike that. Goes against the very nature of the game.

Let me get back to my basic premise:

DIs claim that being a DI gives them an attractive SRR. If you have an attractive SRR the STA bet is for you. You don't have to make any passes, and you don't even have to repeat any number.

I've hit the S many times and the T many times and the A once -- and every time I got a STA payoff I had no more than two passes.

That's been my experience.

If you feel being a DI gives you a better option then go for it.

I know of no DI-advocate who even claims to hit any number on the hop. I only know of DI-advocates who claim either to increase their chances of hitting a 7 or decreasing their chances of hitting a 7.

If I knew a DI who said he could target a number and hit it, I would be at the table with him as he rolled midnight after midnight or aces after aces.

By the way, those three DIs I have seen throw (one is the surgeon from Washington who I played with several times) none of them had monster rolls with many passes made. All made their money by rolling numbers and avoiding the 7.

Also, on a side note: who keeps track of their rolls when shooting? The last time I saw a player with a pad and tracking the table was a Don't player who only had one bet on the Don't Pass and he tracked every player at the table. That was several years ago -- and it was Ahigh's friend at my table at Caesars. Since then I've never seen anyone track the throws at a table.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Let me get back to my basic premise:

DIs claim that being a DI gives them an attractive SRR. If you have an attractive SRR the STA bet is for you. You don't have to make any passes, and you don't even have to repeat any number.

I've hit the S many times and the T many times and the A once -- and every time I got a STA payoff I had no more than two passes.

That's been my experience.

If you feel being a DI gives you a better option then go for it.

I know of no DI-advocate who even claims to hit any number on the hop. I only know of DI-advocates who claim either to increase their chances of hitting a 7 or decreasing their chances of hitting a 7.

If I knew a DI who said he could target a number and hit it, I would be at the table with him as he rolled midnight after midnight or aces after aces.

By the way, those three DIs I have seen throw (one is the surgeon from Washington who I played with several times) none of them had monster rolls with many passes made. All made their money by rolling numbers and avoiding the 7.

Also, on a side note: who keeps track of their rolls when shooting? The last time I saw a player with a pad and tracking the table was a Don't player who only had one bet on the Don't Pass and he tracked every player at the table. That was several years ago -- and it was Ahigh's friend at my table at Caesars. Since then I've never seen anyone track the throws at a table.

Why the hell wouldn't you keep track of your rolls? Its fundamentally the most important thing to keep track of. I'm not saying take out a pad and pen, unless you truly need it because your memory isn't all that great, but there's no reason "not" to. I've got an exceptional memory, so I don't need to write it all down, though sometimes on very specific rolls, I'll document it for later. It really, really helps to remember the exact combinations (or to write down) of the dice that you've been throwing, so that over the "long run" you can give credence and "support" your effectiveness as a DI. If, however, the numbers disagree with what you "think", then you're probably just a guy who sets the dice and throws them, and forgets the times he threw a seven out within the first three rolls haha.

All of that being said, Alan, I don't know of a single DI who claims that he's got an attractive SRR, or even truly discusses SRR past the sake of argument. Most of us don't even consider SRR at all, as most of us have a combination set to roll on comeouts that are more advantageous towards rolling the seven (*in theory*), and will absolutely attempt to roll it as many times as possible on the comeout, why? Because its money in our pockets. The 7 is the most likely number to roll with every roll of the dice, why would you NOT try to roll it when the casino puts its combination in your hands for your advantage?

Alan, I've had days at the table where I've rolled more 7's than any other number, yet hit a 5 or 6 point fire. Not too long ago, I had a roll that lasted twelve rolls that hit a 4 point fire, and had two sevens in it.

Now, if we calculate the results of every single roll we've ever made, the liklihood is that our SRR is, for the most part, unchanged, and a large part of that isn't that we cannot remove the seven, or can. Its that we (most DI's) recognize the strength of rolling the seven in very specific occasions, and if we can manage to have even the slightest ability to roll more sevens, or less sevens, then we'll use that advantage when its most optimal. This last weekend up in Iowa, I was at my Aunts local casino playing craps, just making a killing on the laid 4/10 for everyone else's roll, plus my own. Not only did I lay the 4/10 on my own comeout, but I also hopped the 4-3/5-2. Before my "best" roll began (21 PR's) I had made 152 on my lays (40x4-4x2) and 54 on the hops (15x4-6). I left my lays up, bet inside numbers, never hit my point, but made $52 on the roll itself, before being paid an additional $40 for my lays.

Now, when I consider what I wagered to what I rolled. I made $298 on $27 wagered inside ($6 6/8, $5 5, $5 PL+$5 odds towards the 9), $10 wagered towards the hop 4-3/5-2, and $90 wagered for two $40 lays on the 4/10. So that's 298:127 or approximately 2.34 dollars won per every dollar wagered. Now of course this ratio doesn't matter because a simple 4 or 10 could have crushed my lays at any point, thus affecting the odds, but my point of bringing this up was to show that, as a DI, I made more money betting towards what I could and could not roll, than I possibly could have "trying" to hit an STA bet. It simply isn't advantageous for me "not" to roll a 7 during my comeout, which is the crux of the STA bet. I'd much rather roll four 4-3/5-2's in a row, than attempt not to roll them because of a silly wager like the STA.

It is not advantageous in general. It is not advantageous for ANY DI, in general. It isn't a "true test" for any DI, and it certainly defeats the purpose of most "solid" DI's.

Again, through reading your posts, I get the really solid impression that you either don't know what DI is "about" or your "DI friends" truly don't understand the approach and are simply dice setters and nothing more, and have filled your head with illusions of sugarplums and lollipops about DI.

As far as length of rolls is concerned, and you mentioning your three "DI Friends" not having very long ones, I must say the following.

1. DI isn't necessarily about the length of ones roll, but rather the effectiveness of the bets placed for that roll. I've been trying to pound this into your head, it isn't working very well.
2. Consistency is the most important thing to consider when judging your friends' "effectiveness". Did they roll 6 place numbers before their 7 out? Did they roll 6 or 7 times EVERY time without a quick 7 out? Were they streaky and sporadic?
3. I'm willing to wager the possibility that I've had more rolls of 20+ on this forum than anyone, and certainly more in the 40+ variety, and I probably threw a little less than a third of those rolls additionally as 7's during the comeout.

All I'm really saying is, there's a better investment for your money as a DI, than the STA bet. The amount of money you'll spend trying to hit it (and specifically the "all" bet, not the other two) you'll have been able to wager on better options and likely, potentially make more money in the long run.

Quote: Exoter175

Alan, I've had days at the table where I've rolled more 7's than any other number, yet hit a 5 or 6 point fire. Not too long ago, I had a roll that lasted twelve rolls that hit a 4 point fire, and had two sevens in it.

Well of course you want come out 7s when you're betting the fire. Come out 7s don't hurt you.

But if you're so good at limiting your 7s to the come out rolls, and rolling numbers after the come out, why not just roll numbers and take advantage of the STA which does not require you to hit the same number twice?

Just how good a DI are you? I'd like to be at the table when you throw. Maybe you will be "true DI #4" that I've seen?