Surrender's futile experiments in dice influence
Experiment: drop di in the same manner 72 times. Drop straight down ~2 feet, onto carpet.
Data:
1 dice totals:
Value - count - Variance (vs 24)
1 23 -1
2 18 -6
3 25 1
4 34 10
5 19 -5
6 25 1
2 di totals:
Value Count Expected Variance
2 1 2 -1
3 2 4 -2
4 5 6 -1
5 9 8 1
6 14 10 4
7 7 12 -5
8 11 10 1
9 12 8 4
10 8 6 2
11 3 4 -1
12 0 2 -2
Value Field Win EV
2 2 2 4
3 1 2 4
4 1 5 6
5 -1 -9 -8
6 -1 -14 -10
7 -1 -7 -12
8 -1 -11 -10
9 1 12 8
10 1 8 6
11 1 3 4
12 3 0 6
results: -9 -2
Conclusion: In a small sample size, I saw the exact opposite of what was expected. There were a significant number of 4's, with less 2s and 5s. The field bet lost 9 units, 7 more than the expected loss of 2 units. In a real table situation, this series of roles would have been profitable for placing the inside numbers, 5,6,8,9. There were less than expected sevens, only 7/72 instead of the expected 12.
I will likely continue this exact experiment, doing more trials. The overall goal will be to look for some significant, repeatable sign of dice influence, and to see if such results remain significant as the experiment parameters get closer to a live craps table. I realize that the hourly EV of these experiments is likely less than a penny an hour, but I find it interesting.
Data:
Single di totals, each number was expected 120 times: 1-121,2-122,3-104,4-122,5-128,6-123. This seems to be a materially significant difference in number of 3s rolled.
Two dice totals - significantly low number of 7s.
Value - # rolled - # exp - Variance
2 - 10 - 10 - 0
3 - 22 - 20 - 2
4 - 26 - 30 - -4
5 - 42 - 40 - 2
6 - 54 - 50 - 4
7 - 45 - 60 - -15
8 - 50 - 50 - 0
9 - 45 - 40 - 5
10 - 35 - 30 - 5
11 - 23 - 20 - 3
12 - 8 - 10 - -2
Two dice combinations, biggest outliers:
combination - # rolled - # exp - Variance
4+3 - 8 - 20 - -12
6+3 - 30 - 20 - 10
4+1 - 26 - 20 - 6
3+1 - 14 - 20 - -6
Field Bet Profitability
Value - Units won - Units exp.
2 - 20 - 20
3 - 22 - 20
3 - 26 - 30
4 - -42 - -40
5 - -42 - -40
6 - -54 - -50
7 - -45 - -60
8 - -50 - -50
9 - 45 - 40
10 - 35 - 30
11 - 23 - 20
12 - 24 - 30
Total - +4 - -10
Instead of an expected -10/360 = -2.77% return, the return was 4/360 = 1.11%.
Conclusion: There is significant dice influence in this experiment. Beyond the field bet, other placing/pass/come bets likely may have been profitable. A further experiment will be done involving throwing dice horizontally, probably onto carpet with a fabric/cardboard backstop.
*Hi Surrender88s.*
So I bought some casino sized 19mm dice off of ebay, these were actually discards made for casino- no holes punched in them. I noticed some had blemishes so I think they may not have made the cut for the live games.
Anyways, I just threw 216 times, 50/50 between two sets, and I saw some significant differences. I'd rather not post. I'll stop talking about this and try my luck at a live table soon.
Do you mind reviling your approximate age. Perhaps some background.Quote: surrender88sHi everyone, my name is Surrender88s, and I think I might be a dice influencer.
*Hi Surrender88s.*
So I bought some casino sized 19mm dice off of ebay, these were actually discards made for casino- no holes punched in them. I noticed some had blemishes so I think they may not have made the cut for the live games.
Anyways, I just threw 216 times, 50/50 between two sets, and I saw some significant differences. I'd rather not post. I'll stop talking about this and try my luck at a live table soon.
Quote:Anyways, I just threw 216 times, 50/50 between two sets, and I saw some significant differences. I'd rather not post. I'll stop talking about this and try my luck at a live table soon.
Great, do that and tell us how it goes; everyone loves war stories.
Don't spare us your embellishments, either: we all need a mythic hero.
I just have an open mind, and will give craps a try. If I seem to be winning after having 10 or so turns with the dice, I'll keep at it, otherwise I won't.
Keeping an open mind can be a good thing or a dangerous thing especially when you are dealing with gambling. 10% Open mind with 90% skepticism and logic should be practiced.Quote: surrender88sWell I am in a current situation where I rarely get out to a casino, due to relocating. I might move back within a year. But back then I was playing blackjack, i logged about 30 hours and kept very good records. My actual results were above my expected EV, maybe due to wonging out, maybe just variance. I generally think outside of the box, and am willing to give this craps thing a try as a leisurely pursuit, similar to blackjack for me. I dream of having a full time job that's more flexible, allowing for longer casino trips where I try various AP plays, and grow a bankroll to the point where the AP income is significant. But that might be years. I've considered blackjack, video poker, 3 card poker(think i'm giving up on that before it starts), and now craps.
I just have an open mind, and will give craps a try. If I seem to be winning after having 10 or so turns with the dice, I'll keep at it, otherwise I won't.
I'm telling you now you're wasting your time with DI. NO ONE has showed one ounce of proof in 10+ years that its possible. Even if there a ounce of truth to DI under PERFECT conditions, it's not viable.
You need months of practice on a REAL table just to get started, you need software and other equipment. Dedicated smart killed players with real craps tables and years of practice have given up.
Why do you think you're so special that after a few practice sessions at the casino you can do something that has been dismissed by most respected gambling authorities?
After 10+ years certainly the casinos would know by now and wouldn't allow DI's.
after 10+ years someone would have came out with something solid. People love writing books and proving AP methods
And drove himself crazy in the process. His conclusions seem to indicate even if possible (but zero proof it was) its not feasible. Of course anytime somebody fails at this someone will say they didn't have a good shot.Quote: Dalex64Look for the Ahigh threads. He put a lot of time, money, equipment, and effort into exploring this.
When someone with a good shot fails, they simply retired, write books or tech classes.
Of course you do, that's what everybody thinks.Quote: surrender88sI will say that I take a different approach to throwing the dice than the DI methods that I've seen.
That's exactly how system bettors get started.
Quote: surrender88s
Data:
Single di totals, each number was expected 120 times: 1-121,2-122,3-104,4-122,5-128,6-123. This seems to be a materially significant difference in number of 3s rolled.
Sorry surrender, you are misusing the word "significant". A Chi-squared test on these results has a p-value of 0.728225. This is NOT statistically significant.
A Chi-squared test on the two dice data naturally also has a very high p-value of 0.705322637. These results are the opposite of evidence supporting dice influence. They are random.
And hey, I don't know if you picked up from my tone, and the title of this thread, but I realize where I'm going here. Dicesetter is right when he says there is an irrational need to put people down who even think about or consider dice influence. We don't always have to patronize the people we disagree with. Whether in financial decisions, family life, romance- we all make errors that we have to live with- I am taking a calculated risk and I fully understand the downside.
Quote: Dalex64Look for the Ahigh threads. He put a lot of time, money, equipment, and effort into exploring this.
I saw a video of his basement w/real craps table and a stop motion camera.
did he succeed? did he even get close?
Quote: surrender88sThe sample size is too small to rule out statistical significance.
This isn't really a thing. You can make comments about the statistical significance of any sample size. Also, wasn't trying to be patronizing, just trying to help. If being corrected when you are wrong feels patronizing, you may be on the wrong forum.
Quote:Dicesetter is right when he says there is an irrational need to put people down who even think about or consider dice influence.
No, he is WRONG.
There is nothing "irrational" about my belief that dice setting is akin to the Easter Bunny, Bigfoot, and Santa.
Prove it works.
I'll wait.
It is "rational" to believe it does NOT work, unless or until it is proven that it DOES work.
It's advocates have proven nothing.
Quote: 100xOddsI saw a video of his basement w/real craps table and a stop motion camera.
did he succeed? did he even get close?
No, I don't think he did succeed, if I understand what you are asking. I think he was disapponted in his own results.
I think he was headed down the right path, or at least in the general direction, of data gathering and scientific methods.
I think there are some things he could have done differently, but I never suggested anything to him.
God loves trier'sQuote: AlanMendelsonCorrect: NO ONE has proven dice influencing can be accomplished. But it doesn't hurt to try.
Some questions I would be interested in hearing the answers to - at what distance do your results revert to random, if any, and what affect does the composition of the surface have on that distance?
For example, I think you would be able to get a non-random distribution of values from a higher distance if you dropped the dice into several inches of loose sand.
It would be even more interesting to drop them on a surface closer to that of an actual craps table.
Quote: Dalex64Good luck with the experiments. I'd like to hear more.
Some questions I would be interested in hearing the answers to - at what distance do your results revert to random, if any, and what affect does the composition of the surface have on that distance?
For example, I think you would be able to get a non-random distribution of values from a higher distance if you dropped the dice into several inches of loose sand.
It would be even more interesting to drop them on a surface closer to that of an actual craps table.
So my first 360 "rolls" were smaller sized dice dropped two feet straight down onto carpet.
I just did 216 rolls which were thrown 6 feet onto carpet with a "back wall" which was my padded laptop case. The results were better than the previous results. The difference was the use of the bigger dice, I believe. It's hard to gauge whether or not even discussing this is fruitful/interesting to people here, we'll see.
Quote: Dalex64Good luck with the experiments. I'd like to hear more.
Some questions I would be interested in hearing the answers to - at what distance do your results revert to random, if any, and what affect does the composition of the surface have on that distance?
For example, I think you would be able to get a non-random distribution of values from a higher distance if you dropped the dice into several inches of loose sand.
It would be even more interesting to drop them on a surface closer to that of an actual craps table.
These questions also apply to my golf game. I tend to make my putts from short distances. I do better on well groomed greens. I have an expert grip and form but I just can't seem to become a pro golfer.
Quote: AlanMendelsonThese questions also apply to my golf game. I tend to make my putts from short distances. I do better on well groomed greens. I have an expert grip and form but I just can't seem to become a pro golfer.
I'm not talking about golf. Would you just clearly say what you mean?
My belief is you can't meaningfully affect the results on a toss of the dice that has to hit the back wall of the craps table.
There's a 1% chance(approximately), that my incredibly amazing new approach to craps leads to millions in earnings from casinos, followed by a book deal and a dvd, entitled platinum touch. :-P
Unless your strategy works - in that case go clean out all of the casinos first.
Once you are backed off from all the casinos in vegas for winning too much money, it will be easier to sell the books.
I doubt he could get an advantage on a craps table made of sand.Quote: Dalex64
For example, I think you would be able to get a non-random distribution of values from a higher distance if you dropped the dice into several inches of loose sand.
.
Quote: Dalex64I'm not talking about golf. Would you just clearly say what you mean?
My belief is you can't meaningfully affect the results on a toss of the dice that has to hit the back wall of the craps table.
Part of dice influencing includes how you hit the back wall. When I got into trouble at both Bellagio and MGM it was because my dice weren't bouncing off the back wall or died as they reached the wall.
If the dice bounce off the back wall by more than an inch there is little chance of any degree of control. We all know that.
