odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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November 3rd, 2013 at 5:26:40 AM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

Once the point has been established, on the first roll, YOU HAVE THE OPTION TO TAKE THAT BET TO THE PASS LINE



what am I missing? you take yourself from where the odds [at that point] favor you back to where they don't!

Quote:

I'll give an example.

We all know the probabilities of 6&8 coming... So on the come out roll you can have your bet on the DP. but if your point is a 6...



if we all know the probabilities, we should know that even the 6 and 8 come less often than the 7. What's up with craps players and darkside "no action" with the 6 and 8? If a player could buy enough of that action when the other guy doesn't want it, it'd beat any other advantage play anybody ever dreamed off outside of cheating.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
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November 3rd, 2013 at 5:36:09 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

what am I missing? you take yourself from where the odds [at that point] favor you back to where they don't!



if we all know the probabilities, we should know that even the 6 and 8 come less often than the 7. What's up with craps players and darkside "no action" with the 6 and 8? If a player could buy enough of that action when the other guy doesn't want it, it'd beat any other advantage play anybody ever dreamed off outside of cheating.



Once again this only applies to people who have taken the blue pill... On paper, ill even agree that you can debunk this all day. But in real world application, it might help a few...

Yes, on paper the 7 comes more than the 6 or 8. But over time those two numbers will come more frequently the others (4,5,9,10)... The goal is to use the seven, against the bets that have a significantly less probability of showing up... To my math guys I know this sounds like complete bs, but it just requires a slight paradigm shift... Only apply it if you "believe" you have an "edge".

If you are looking for an actual equation in a negative expectation game to back this up, it won't come. You just have to try it
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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November 3rd, 2013 at 6:11:13 AM permalink
What a garden of mis-information. I don't know where to start! So I will start at the beginning.

Quote: TheWolf713

This does happen alot to players.. I believe the reason why is pretty simple... On a regular day, you throw to win and yet the seven always comes. But on the days you attempt to throw for the seven, you try as hard as you can to make the seven to come faster than it would happen organically and the reason is quite simple.
Some players change their sets, they even try to throw the dice in corners, and all kinds of wacky things. They forget all of their practice....



Really? Yes, all of their practice. Wonderful. Is that practice on your rig, on your table, on your friend's table, on your bed? Let's continue....

Quote: TheWolf713

Any good craps shooter will tell you some of their greatest looking shots were a seven. Always keep that in mind... Why would you change anything?

The reason people really get their clock cleaned is they go against the probability odds while trying to do this.and they don't know this little secret.



Well, make up your mind -- are you talking probability odds or not? Let's read on:

Quote: TheWolf713

This little bit of information is a jewel when shooting for the seven... I call it the option

When shooting for the seven you can initially place your bet on the don't pass line... Once the point has been established, on the first roll, YOU HAVE THE OPTION TO TAKE THAT BET TO THE PASS LINE... do you understand what that means. It means you do not have to bet against any number you do not want to... Especially a number in your favor...this puts the power in your corner.. I'll give an example.

We all know the probabilities of 6&8 coming... So on the come out roll you can have your bet on the DP. but if your point is a 6, you have the option to switch over...knowing my shot and taking a risk against the probability, I feel i can hit a six. The risk is minimal. Switch over and Shoot for the 6 and hit it. Winner... Then the next come out roll, you are back on the donts, and maybe a 4 is now point. You would then add odds and press with odds of your winnings from the six... We know the probability of the four, so eventually the 7 seven will come. Boom you are now Mr. Seven.



Hold it. After the come out, and you establish the point, you are more likely to win with a DP bet. Remember, just before this last section of your post you mentioned "probability odds" and what happened to them? Oh... you feel you can hit a six. Okay, so why bother with the DP bet in the first place? In other words, make up your mind.

Quote: TheWolf713

It's not always full proof, but it works... The only hazards you'll experience is the 7 on the come out. I don't hedge because I feel like it's a waste of money.. I use the 2V set which shoots an outside number. After that a regular set and shoot until the seven comes. Don't be phased if it takes a long time. It will come



Sure it works, from time to time. And if you have a really good selective memory it works better for you.

Quote: TheWolf713

Alot if people will start having what they consider to be good rolls and try to switch over... This is dangerous when doing this.. You have to commit to the side. If you are getting in a rythym and you knock yourself off 2 or three times..the rules of being a don't player apply. Just past the dice. Never let one player (including yourself) clear your bankroll. There will be other opportunities for the seven.

Let it work for you. Try it again.

Just a little jewel from TheWolf713



Again, make up your mind. A couple of paragraphs back you suggest switching from DP to pass because you think you will hit a six. Then you say it's dangerous to switch over. Which is it? If you're such a "good shooter" why do you even have to consider switching? Why even bet the dark side? "Good shooters" should be able to have hands of 30 and 40 rolls... and hit hardways.

Sorry, makes no sense.
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
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November 3rd, 2013 at 6:38:03 AM permalink
Alan,

You are correct... It does not make any sense.. I don't it expect it to come off as logical, because it goes against most of the elements that we consider as "facts" when people speak on shooting.
It is a garden of misinformation, but just give it try.

It might take me some time to lay it out to correctly to give you a better understanding, but it works. Real world application.

I apologize for not setting up the guidelines properly:
-when using the Mr. Seven out, The decision should already be made NOT to bet against the 6 & 8 when shooting.

The only thing you are trying to here do is win. you will have more than enough opportunities shoot. Why shoot against a 6 or 8 when you have the option not to? My math might be off but if I'm shooting against a 4, I have 92 percent chance of not hitting it.

This concept will only apply if you feel you have an edge on shooting.

And you are correct when you say good shooters should have 30 to 40 rolls when shooting.
This is so true. But why would you waste 30-45 mins doing something that can be done in 5-10 mins. Why would I avoid the most common number when I can exploit it?
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
superrick
superrick
Joined: Jul 14, 2010
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November 3rd, 2013 at 7:11:05 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

We all have stories about the "ultra smart don't player" who loads everything on the don't pass and then makes point after point after point. If it were so easy, we'd all do it.


Just the other day I ended up putting the donít shooter up on his donít bet to keep him shooting, Iíve done this many times when they run out of money and canít throw a 7. I love donít players when they are shooting, most of the time they end up passing the dice because they canít throw the damn 7, when they want to!

Everybody has the answer to why you are losing when playing craps , itís just too funny when you have a really good shooter trying to 7 out so they can win!
I will sometimes shoot from the dark side if there are no other players on the table and I keep getting the dice right back, and if I canít throw a 7, will switch over to the right side of the table.

There is nothing about the game of craps that is easy, it can make anybody look like a fool. That is why the casinos still have the game, itís a money maker for them, that is the one reason I will always say there is no such thing as a AP craps player! Sometimes you should have just stayed in bed, instead of going to the craps tables!
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
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November 3rd, 2013 at 7:49:26 AM permalink
Quote: superrick



Everybody has the answer to why you are losing when playing craps , itís just too funny when you have a really good shooter trying to 7 out so they can win!
I will sometimes shoot from the dark side if there are no other players on the table and I keep getting the dice right back, and if I canít throw a 7, will switch over to the right side of the table.

There is nothing about the game of craps that is easy, it can make anybody look like a fool. That is why the casinos still have the game, itís a money maker for them, that is the one reason I will always say there is no such thing as a AP craps player! Sometimes you should have just stayed in bed, instead of going to the craps tables!



And I've done the same thing for Pass line guys as well.

This is by no means a "end-all losses" super solution . It just works really well on empty tables.. Any good shooter will tell you that there are nights when they are "off". why not capitalize on that? And let the casino personal tell you, alot of "good shooters" seem to have alot more off nights than they would lead people on to believe.

Just as you stated
Quote: superrick


I will sometimes shoot from the dark side if there are no other players on the table and I keep getting the dice right back, and if I canít throw a 7, will switch over to the right side of the table.



This is the concept that most good shooters will never point out. There is some down time in between your good shooting. Most people are not on your level and cannot recognize when there rhythm is heating back up. So until they do I was trying to recommend something to help them. Helping them to understand that it's okay to pass the dice.

If you want to be a star, this is not for you. If you want to win or add a little something to your play, it will help. Who knows, it just might give you an Advantage.
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
petroglyph
petroglyph
Joined: Jan 3, 2013
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November 3rd, 2013 at 10:46:58 AM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

Quote: odiousgambit

what am I missing? you take yourself from where the odds [at that point] favor you back to where they don't!



if we all know the probabilities, we should know that even the 6 and 8 come less often than the 7. What's up with craps players and darkside "no action" with the 6 and 8? If a player could buy enough of that action when the other guy doesn't want it, it'd beat any other advantage play anybody ever dreamed off outside of cheating.



Once again this only applies to people who have taken the blue pill... On paper, ill even agree that you can debunk this all day. But in real world application, it might help a few...

Yes, on paper the 7 comes more than the 6 or 8. But over time those two numbers will come more frequently the others (4,5,9,10)... The goal is to use the seven, against the bets that have a significantly less probability of showing up... To my math guys I know this sounds like complete bs, but it just requires a slight paradigm shift... Only apply it if you "believe" you have an "edge".

If you are looking for an actual equation in a negative expectation game to back this up, it won't come. You just have to try it






"Morpheus: This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes"


A couple places wouldn't let me move my don't or take it down. I'm not sure if that was house rules or the individual dealer, but the rules do vary some from house to house and somewhat between dealer's.

Just like a fine carpenter, a good craps player has more than one tool in his kit. I've been seeing player's betting do/don't on the come out so as to be able to just bet the "free odds" or go both ways on the box numbers. Sure the 12 get's them once in a while, but it would anyway. They weren't looking at that come out style as hedging but as a way to get a free vig on the free odds.

I had a stick man yesterday ask me if I'd been watching dvd's or taking dice classes. I assured him I was under no illusion about dice control, he nodded in agreement and went about his business. Good rolls just happen sometimes.

Funny thing, I've developed a shot and I call it my "Wolf" shot. The beauty of it is it doesn't require any more skill than I already possess. But, I just can't seem to make a seven with it. Any di wanabee would just shake their head and refrain from betting. But the unknowing just put their money down and seem to do pretty well. The box and suits throw their hands in the air and they have a little fit and walk away. Funny that.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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November 3rd, 2013 at 11:33:42 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

What a garden of mis-information.


Good work Alan.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
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November 3rd, 2013 at 11:54:30 AM permalink
Quote: petroglyph



I had a stick man yesterday ask me if I'd been watching dvd's or taking dice classes. I assured him I was under no illusion about dice control, he nodded in agreement and went about his business. Good rolls just happen sometimes.

Funny thing, I've developed a shot and I call it my "Wolf" shot. The beauty of it is it doesn't require any more skill than I already possess. But, I just can't seem to make a seven with it. Any di wanabee would just shake their head and refrain from betting. But the unknowing just put their money down and seem to do pretty well. The box and suits throw their hands in the air and they have a little fit and walk away. Funny that.



Thanks petroglyph,

Guys Im just trying to give a little help to those who go in and make the same mistakes you made when you were young.
Alot of people take the Generic route and wonder why they are continuously losing. Then you have others who will only take advice from guys who have been losing for 30 years plus. Just trying to save some of you the aches.
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain
JB85
JB85
Joined: Oct 1, 2013
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November 3rd, 2013 at 2:50:30 PM permalink
Wow. There is no scenario ever where it makes sense to take down a don't bet that has made it through the come out roll!

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