Lay the 4; Less variance?
February 29th, 2012 at 2:22:56 PM
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I was debating something..
Currently I get a $30 average for playing the PassLine($5) with 3/4/5x odds..
What I was thinking was to Lay the 4 for $60, and see if they'd give me a $60 rate (Play that way for half the time and get the same comps)
In the casino I go to, I can lay the 4 for $60 and recieve $30 on the win for $1 vig (taken on the win)..
I would think I could get more mileage out of this, as it seems not a lot of 4's are hit (definitely more 10's than 4's; from what I've seen)
The HA on the bet is like 1.11%, so it's not bad..I know it's more than the passline and also more money, but it seems like it's got a whole lot less variance in it...
What says the forum?
Currently I get a $30 average for playing the PassLine($5) with 3/4/5x odds..
What I was thinking was to Lay the 4 for $60, and see if they'd give me a $60 rate (Play that way for half the time and get the same comps)
In the casino I go to, I can lay the 4 for $60 and recieve $30 on the win for $1 vig (taken on the win)..
I would think I could get more mileage out of this, as it seems not a lot of 4's are hit (definitely more 10's than 4's; from what I've seen)
The HA on the bet is like 1.11%, so it's not bad..I know it's more than the passline and also more money, but it seems like it's got a whole lot less variance in it...
What says the forum?
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
February 29th, 2012 at 2:34:53 PM
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Ten and four are both rolled with the same probability, 3/36.= .0833%
if you are playing $5 pass + 3x you are risking $20 and getting paid $35 on a pass.
Not sure where your average of $30 comes from unless you aren't taking full odds.
Most casinos will rate a $60 lay bet on 4 the same as a $30 place bet on 4.
if you are playing $5 pass + 3x you are risking $20 and getting paid $35 on a pass.
Not sure where your average of $30 comes from unless you aren't taking full odds.
Most casinos will rate a $60 lay bet on 4 the same as a $30 place bet on 4.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
February 29th, 2012 at 2:36:10 PM
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I agree with your real life vs math reasoning.
On a few occasions when nothing else is going right, I will lay the 4 or 10 for a hundred or so. My historical sample size is low, but I can definitely say I am ahead on that bet. I have been paid way more often than I have lost (more than the 2-1 expectation)
I can remember twice where I bought in for a quick $300 session, and could not get anything going, so I ended up taking the remaining amount and Laying the 4. Two quick wins, a loss, and 2 more wins I had my $300 back and left. The other time I ended with a $40 profit, after being down the whole time.
Please report back if you get rated on the $60, or the more likely $30 rating.
On a few occasions when nothing else is going right, I will lay the 4 or 10 for a hundred or so. My historical sample size is low, but I can definitely say I am ahead on that bet. I have been paid way more often than I have lost (more than the 2-1 expectation)
I can remember twice where I bought in for a quick $300 session, and could not get anything going, so I ended up taking the remaining amount and Laying the 4. Two quick wins, a loss, and 2 more wins I had my $300 back and left. The other time I ended with a $40 profit, after being down the whole time.
Please report back if you get rated on the $60, or the more likely $30 rating.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
February 29th, 2012 at 2:52:44 PM
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Quote: RaleighCrapsPlease report back if you get rated on the $60, or the more likely $30 rating.
No, I'm positive they'd rate me as playing $60...because I have $60 out on the layout.
They rate me at $30, because when I'm playing the PL and the point is 6/8, I have $30 out there ($5 w/$25 odds) and they give the high-end when rating...
Like I said, I'm just thinking of this as a variance issue...because it seems like with JUST the PL, my flat gets chewed up with all the craps that roll (seems like MORE craps than should be) and sometimes you get a streak of PSO's...or even LONG hands...they just don't make any points!
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
February 29th, 2012 at 2:55:32 PM
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Well,
In my experience, I bet with place bets, and lay bets to cover my place bets (on the 4 or 10), and I can say my lay bets have lost A LOT. I am certainly not ahead. But I have had a ton of fun.
however, before doing this, I NEVER would walk away with a positive. I do quit frequently now.
In my experience, I bet with place bets, and lay bets to cover my place bets (on the 4 or 10), and I can say my lay bets have lost A LOT. I am certainly not ahead. But I have had a ton of fun.
however, before doing this, I NEVER would walk away with a positive. I do quit frequently now.
February 29th, 2012 at 5:21:44 PM
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You were talking about the 4/10 before.
Are you sure you are rated at $30?
You would be betting $30 on 6/8, $25 on 5/9, and $20 on 4/10.
Most casinos would not rate this at $30/bet level.
The lay bets are not valued at the level of the bet, but rather at the level of the opposing buy bet.
You are essentially laying the odds against a buy bet.
Are you sure you are rated at $30?
You would be betting $30 on 6/8, $25 on 5/9, and $20 on 4/10.
Most casinos would not rate this at $30/bet level.
The lay bets are not valued at the level of the bet, but rather at the level of the opposing buy bet.
You are essentially laying the odds against a buy bet.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
February 29th, 2012 at 7:28:46 PM
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Like I said, absolutely positive I've got a $30 rate now...just curious if no 4 for $60 would have less variance...
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
February 29th, 2012 at 8:10:39 PM
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Well you are exposing more of your bankroll ("to win less"). So long term, you would have more variance, although not by much.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:17:50 PM
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Long term you would have more variance? That doesn't make sense... Variance is all about the short term. Long term, he should expect to lose...
February 29th, 2012 at 9:41:50 PM
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Quote: TIMSPEEDNo, I'm positive they'd rate me as playing $60...because I have $60 out on the layout.
Tim, it doesn't work that way.
Each game and bet is viewed and calculated by its parameters.
You can make $500 in odds on a $5 PL bet, and still be rated a $5 player. You would have to make a $500 pass line bet for the $500 rating. The casino considers the HA of the bets and the games when calculating ratings.
Also a $50 Blackjack player gets a better comp rating than a Pai Gow Poker player because of the game: 30 hands per hour versus 240 hph, etc...
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
February 29th, 2012 at 9:46:32 PM
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Dan, I appreciate and respect your experience and opinions but where are they dealing BJ at 240 hph?
Maybe one on one, to a manic gambling addict....
Maybe one on one, to a manic gambling addict....
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
February 29th, 2012 at 10:08:14 PM
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Quote: TriplellLong term you would have more variance? That doesn't make sense... Variance is all about the short term. Long term, he should expect to lose...
Oh boy here we go again. It depends on what you define as long and short term. And variance is not "all" about the short term.
When you expose MORE of your money, you INCREASE variance, REGARDLESS of time. Got it now?
February 29th, 2012 at 10:17:13 PM
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Quote: YoDiceRoll11Oh boy here we go again. It depends on what you define as long and short term. And variance is not "all" about the short term.
When you expose MORE of your money, you INCREASE variance, REGARDLESS of time. Got it now?
Lay bets have less variance than take bets.
March 1st, 2012 at 6:28:08 AM
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Quote: PaigowdanYou can make $500 in odds on a $5 PL bet, and still be rated a $5 player. You would have to make a $500 pass line bet for the $500 rating. The casino considers the HA of the bets and the games when calculating ratings.
That may be the case in your casino. But it is definitely not so for others, as has been posted here several times.
March 1st, 2012 at 6:29:52 AM
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Really, you mean different casinos have different rules?
Why would they do such a thing?
Why would they do such a thing?
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
March 1st, 2012 at 7:58:40 AM
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Quote: WongBoDan, I appreciate and respect your experience and opinions but where are they dealing BJ at 240 hph?
Maybe one on one, to a manic gambling addict....
Dan, or anyone else. Can you quote or tell me where to get an accurate count of hands dealt per hour in BJ
with different number of spots, full table, pitch versus shoe, etc ??
March 1st, 2012 at 11:10:32 AM
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I can't provide the numbers but consider the point of view for a moment.
You as player at a full table (heaven forbid) get X hands/hr dealt to you.
The House gets 6X hands/hr. dealt to Customers.
You as player at a full table (heaven forbid) get X hands/hr dealt to you.
The House gets 6X hands/hr. dealt to Customers.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
March 1st, 2012 at 11:22:29 AM
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Quote: PaigowdanTim, it doesn't work that way.
Each game and bet is viewed and calculated by its parameters.
You can make $500 in odds on a $5 PL bet, and still be rated a $5 player. You would have to make a $500 pass line bet for the $500 rating. The casino considers the HA of the bets and the games when calculating ratings.
Also a $50 Blackjack player gets a better comp rating than a Pai Gow Poker player because of the game: 30 hands per hour versus 240 hph, etc...
Are you absolutely positive on that Dan? Have you been to every single casino in the world so you can make that blanket statement?
While I appreciate your insite...I'd also appreciate it if you'd read the thread more carefully...
This wasn't a thread about what I MIGHT get playing...it's a thread about what would be better to play in the long-run...
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
March 1st, 2012 at 11:26:47 AM
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Quote: YoDiceRoll11Oh boy here we go again. It depends on what you define as long and short term. And variance is not "all" about the short term.
When you expose MORE of your money, you INCREASE variance, REGARDLESS of time. Got it now?
Ahh ha...See that's also what I was thinking...but then I thought "Well hey, the number of desicions on the No-4 vs the PL has GOT to be less (6 ways to win vs 3 ways to lose AT ALL TIMES...vs come-out and point-cycle)
I'm trying to view it this way...(and I'm probably WAY off, but I KNOW video poker, so I can relate it better)
PassLine with 3/4/5x = DoubleDoubleBonus videopoker
No4 for $60 = JacksOrBetter videpoker
No?
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:16:12 AM
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Quote: WongBoYou were talking about the 4/10 before.
Are you sure you are rated at $30?
You would be betting $30 on 6/8, $25 on 5/9, and $20 on 4/10.
Most casinos would not rate this at $30/bet level.
The lay bets are not valued at the level of the bet, but rather at the level of the opposing buy bet.
You are essentially laying the odds against a buy bet.
Technically the casino should only rate you for $5 because that's the only bet that'll lose money (on passline with no place or buy bets). Unless the algorithms used to rate take into account odds being bet, but where I work, all the floor or box person does is put in the total "average" action the player has during any hand or shooter. Plus they all seem to have a deflated idea of how much action is actually being played.
For instance, if player A does $54 (or $52) across and presses one unit every roll, his total bet is maybe 50% more than player B that takes $54 across but never presses. Again if the algorithm takes this into account than it's okay, but still the presser is getting screwed, because the flat bettor will be comped slightly better. I simply don't know how it works, and I'd like to know.
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:06:04 PM
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Wanted to comment on a few different topics in this thread...
Re: Lay 4 of $60 being rated as $30.
Yes, casinos will rate this based on the opposite Buy position, and that's wrong IMO if you only pay vig on a win. On a Buy 4 $30, you pay $1 on 1/3 of the outcomes. But on a Lay 4 $60, you pay $1 on 2/3 of the outcomes. You pay 2x as much vig in the long run on the Lay, so you should get rated 2x as much (the full $60 on the Lay, and $30 on the Buy).
Re: $50 BJ player getting comped more than $50 PGP player.
Not true IME. Yes you get a lot more hands/hr out at BJ than PGP, but the house advantage on PGP is a lot larger. At my local casino, BJ gets comped ~10% of your bet per hour, and PGP gets comped ~14%. So a $50 player would earn $5/hr at BJ and $7/hr at PGP in comps.
Re: The presser getting screwed vs the flat bettor.
Depends on the pit boss / boxman. Some are more on top of things than others, and will account for the extra bets you're putting up. Some won't. Just another added layer of variance to deal with.
Re: Lay 4 of $60 being rated as $30.
Yes, casinos will rate this based on the opposite Buy position, and that's wrong IMO if you only pay vig on a win. On a Buy 4 $30, you pay $1 on 1/3 of the outcomes. But on a Lay 4 $60, you pay $1 on 2/3 of the outcomes. You pay 2x as much vig in the long run on the Lay, so you should get rated 2x as much (the full $60 on the Lay, and $30 on the Buy).
Re: $50 BJ player getting comped more than $50 PGP player.
Not true IME. Yes you get a lot more hands/hr out at BJ than PGP, but the house advantage on PGP is a lot larger. At my local casino, BJ gets comped ~10% of your bet per hour, and PGP gets comped ~14%. So a $50 player would earn $5/hr at BJ and $7/hr at PGP in comps.
Re: The presser getting screwed vs the flat bettor.
Depends on the pit boss / boxman. Some are more on top of things than others, and will account for the extra bets you're putting up. Some won't. Just another added layer of variance to deal with.
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:22:19 PM
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LOL...
I KNOW FOR A FACT how I'll be rated (This casino uses rating "cards" and they use pencils, so they can erase! hahaha)
I've played a similar system before (No 4, No 10 for $70 a piece and got rated for $150; but I only played it like an hour because I was severely under bankrolled)
On the subject of BJ vs PGP rating...this casino would give me a $25 rate if I was a green chipper at BJ, however at PGP it'd take 5 hours rather than 4, to earn the same thing. (PGP is VERRRY popular and ALWAYS full even though they have six tables!)
I KNOW FOR A FACT how I'll be rated (This casino uses rating "cards" and they use pencils, so they can erase! hahaha)
I've played a similar system before (No 4, No 10 for $70 a piece and got rated for $150; but I only played it like an hour because I was severely under bankrolled)
On the subject of BJ vs PGP rating...this casino would give me a $25 rate if I was a green chipper at BJ, however at PGP it'd take 5 hours rather than 4, to earn the same thing. (PGP is VERRRY popular and ALWAYS full even though they have six tables!)
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:51:39 PM
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This is from Ask the Wizard #136
The following tables show the number of hands/tosses per hour in blackjack, craps, and roulette.
The source of the tables is Casino Operations Management by Jim Kilby.
Hands per Hour in Blackjack
Players Hands per hour
1 209
2 139
3 105
4 84
5 70
6 60
7 52
Rolls per Hour in Craps
Players Rolls per hour
1 249
3 216
5 144
7 135
9 123
11 102
Spins per Hour in Roulette
Players Spins per hour
1 112
2 76
3 60
4 55
5 48
6 35
The following tables show the number of hands/tosses per hour in blackjack, craps, and roulette.
The source of the tables is Casino Operations Management by Jim Kilby.
Hands per Hour in Blackjack
Players Hands per hour
1 209
2 139
3 105
4 84
5 70
6 60
7 52
Rolls per Hour in Craps
Players Rolls per hour
1 249
3 216
5 144
7 135
9 123
11 102
Spins per Hour in Roulette
Players Spins per hour
1 112
2 76
3 60
4 55
5 48
6 35
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
