Exploration into Randomness and Short Term Game Play

My inquiry and hope for others to consider, really originates in a simple estimate of how many dice rolls can I experience? Well just ball parking it, the fast craps tables the dice are thrown every 30 seconds. So 2 rolls per min, 120 per hour, about 480 per 4 hours, which is the longest I have stood at a table, before having to eat, pee, or just catch a breather. I understand the validity of the statistical averages over billions of roll simulations, and I believe them to be true, but how does that affect what I see at the table within roughly 500 rolls which I am guessing is my real physical limit for the night? I guess the only thing I can conclude is that observing random events on such a short number of events (500 vs 1,000,000,000) I am likely to see lots of different possible outcomes, some win and some loose just due to variance. What are others thoughts on this?

Quote: noxizus

My inquiry and hope for others to consider, really originates in a simple estimate of how many dice rolls can I experience? Well just ball parking it, the fast craps tables the dice are thrown every 30 seconds. So 2 rolls per min, 120 per hour, about 480 per 4 hours, which is the longest I have stood at a table, before having to eat, pee, or just catch a breather. I understand the validity of the statistical averages over billions of roll simulations, and I believe them to be true, but how does that affect what I see at the table within roughly 500 rolls which I am guessing is my real physical limit for the night? I guess the only thing I can conclude is that observing random events on such a short number of events (500 vs 1,000,000,000) I am likely to see lots of different possible outcomes, some win and some loose just due to variance. What are others thoughts on this?

You are just talking about the difference between long term variance re-balancing, and short term sampling.

You will see winning short term sessions that skew long term results making you think you have a "streak". You will see short term losing sessions that skew long term results making you think you have a "streak" (although a losing one).

It's that simple.

Probability is a guideline. Not the law.

Example: You have a fair coin (perfect in every way) and you flip it 100 times. Probability says that you should get 50 heads and 50 tails right. Guess what, doing the math there is only an 8-9% chance that you will actually get exactly 50 heads and 50 tails.
For more, see law of averages.

It was funny the first time I went to casino, I was told to go to the loudest craps table and just start betting. I did it and won a lot of money, well a lot for a college student. Seemed to me the easy approach to identifying those elusive short term streaks upwards! Hahaha, but you never know when its going to end either, the beauty of randomness. To me Craps is more of observing the people around the table first than the actual rolls on the table. If everyone is happy, go for it, if everyone is frowning, stay away.

Quote: noxizus

It was funny the first time I went to casino, I was told to go to the loudest craps table and just start betting. I did it and won a lot of money, well a lot for a college student. Seemed to me the easy approach to identifying those elusive short term streaks upwards! Hahaha, but you never know when its going to end either, the beauty of randomness. To me Craps is more of observing the people around the table first than the actual rolls on the table. If everyone is happy, go for it, if everyone is frowning, stay away.

:) Good advice. Live on the edge!!!!

(But in reality, the game is so random, it doesn't matter if people are happy or sad, there is no such thing as "charting" a table.) You can do it for fun, but in the end, anything can happen at anytime.

Noxizus,
IMHO,
Perhaps you could learn how to play the "don't" side when the table is cold. Simple don't come betting after the point has been established is a good way of betting the don't side. Observing the people around the table, and the outcome of their rolls is a way of "charting" for a table trend - hot - cold - choppy. I believe in charting and table trends. Trends do occur, and if you are observant enough through "charting", you will find yourself being part of a good roll. Avoid a table that is "choppy", in other words, win,loss,win,loss,win,etc... those tables will eat up your bankroll. You're looking for a table that has a definite advantage for your style of betting before you buy in.
If the table changes and you start to lose your bets, take a breather and don't bet until the "trend" is favorable again. If it doesn't return after several shooters, time to walk.

Quote: tconley19

Avoid a table that is "choppy", in other words, win,loss,win,loss,win,etc... those tables will eat up your bankroll.

Why??? Just bet do,don't,do,don't,do,don't, etc ... If you believe in trends, gotta believe in resonance too!

Quote: tconley19

Noxizus,
IMHO,
Perhaps you could learn how to play the "don't" side when the table is cold. Simple don't come betting after the point has been established is a good way of betting the don't side. Observing the people around the table, and the outcome of their rolls is a way of "charting" for a table trend - hot - cold - choppy. I believe in charting and table trends. Trends do occur, and if you are observant enough through "charting", you will find yourself being part of a good roll. Avoid a table that is "choppy", in other words, win,loss,win,loss,win,etc... those tables will eat up your bankroll. You're looking for a table that has a definite advantage for your style of betting before you buy in.
If the table changes and you start to lose your bets, take a breather and don't bet until the "trend" is favorable again. If it doesn't return after several shooters, time to walk.

The only problem with charting is that trends DO occur.....IN THE PAST. Past trends do not forecast anything in the future. Sorry. Like I said, you can do it for fun. Thinking that a table can be hot or cold for a certain amount of time is a fallacy.

Not pitching any system, just letting you know what works for me. Of course it doesn't work all of the time, however I do like to know what technique and skill the shooters are using and bet accordingly.

Charting certainly isn't a system, and as human beings, it is impossible for us not to chart. In a sense, we try to make trends out of numbers and events in life and at the craps table. I too like to see what other shooters are doing. You definitely have to bet accordingly depending on different techniques. That is in a sense, charting. However, there are other people (obviously not you) who take charting to a whole new level and plop their bets away based on absolutely nothing more than past trends. Hope that clears that up a bit.

Rack em up!

well said!