DiceData on Youtube
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February 12th, 2025 at 8:25:18 AM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7bxsmjO-QM
So a new interesting player in the youtube/reddit/niche forum group around Craps has emerged in the past few months and he goes by the name DiceData on youtube. He's been posting some very interesting simulation results from popular Craps strategies, as well as a bit of statistical analysis on weird aspects of these strategies. One very compelling data point seems to be that dark strategies, at least for the sim perameters that he's set up, being the only 'positive' winning strategies. As somene that mostly plays the Dark Side when I'm at a craps table, this definitely is something I've also noticed. In general most tables throughout the world, at any given hour of the day, are probably pretty choppy and most players aren't making their point, or not making more than 1 point. These sims seem to confirm this.
Of course where DP/DC players do end up getting burnt is the guys that buckshot points or getting multiple come out 7s/11s in a row so much that your bankroll is kaput or doesn't allow for a string of recovery numbers being thrown. The best way to counter act that is just putting a freeze on additonal play as soon as a individual player has knocked your numbers off, but very few of us have the patience to do this consistently. Standing at the table not playing for a dozen or more rolls is a feels bad moment, even if bankroll wise it's the smart play.
I also figured Wiz might enjoy the math behind the simulations and some of the outliers that pop up.
So a new interesting player in the youtube/reddit/niche forum group around Craps has emerged in the past few months and he goes by the name DiceData on youtube. He's been posting some very interesting simulation results from popular Craps strategies, as well as a bit of statistical analysis on weird aspects of these strategies. One very compelling data point seems to be that dark strategies, at least for the sim perameters that he's set up, being the only 'positive' winning strategies. As somene that mostly plays the Dark Side when I'm at a craps table, this definitely is something I've also noticed. In general most tables throughout the world, at any given hour of the day, are probably pretty choppy and most players aren't making their point, or not making more than 1 point. These sims seem to confirm this.
Of course where DP/DC players do end up getting burnt is the guys that buckshot points or getting multiple come out 7s/11s in a row so much that your bankroll is kaput or doesn't allow for a string of recovery numbers being thrown. The best way to counter act that is just putting a freeze on additonal play as soon as a individual player has knocked your numbers off, but very few of us have the patience to do this consistently. Standing at the table not playing for a dozen or more rolls is a feels bad moment, even if bankroll wise it's the smart play.
I also figured Wiz might enjoy the math behind the simulations and some of the outliers that pop up.
February 12th, 2025 at 9:21:25 AM
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Since Bubble Craps only has double odds, I'm going to try DP with 2X odds along with DC with 2X odds but those DC bets will be on the 4th, 9th, & 14th roll of the point in progress on the DP. Establishing the DP point counts as roll #1. If I want to make it 3X odds, I can add a lay bet equal to the DP/DC bet and pay a 5% vig on the win.
Time and time again I try to play the PL side and eventually a slew of point 7-outs overtakes the table and I fall behind. It takes a hot shooter to catch up again and it could be an hour or more for that to happen and my session money would be too reduced to do much with it.
But when I bet DP, suddenly the dice turn and I'm making 3 points or more on a turn, so it's always "opposite day."
84% of shooters make 2 points or less.
I saw Dice Data's chart, and there are more 10 shooter sessions on that wind up on the plus side than the negative side. But charts are so misleading or foolish to decipher sometimes. You'll have a better chance of pulling ahead on any one session but there's some losing going on.
Time and time again I try to play the PL side and eventually a slew of point 7-outs overtakes the table and I fall behind. It takes a hot shooter to catch up again and it could be an hour or more for that to happen and my session money would be too reduced to do much with it.
But when I bet DP, suddenly the dice turn and I'm making 3 points or more on a turn, so it's always "opposite day."
84% of shooters make 2 points or less.
I saw Dice Data's chart, and there are more 10 shooter sessions on that wind up on the plus side than the negative side. But charts are so misleading or foolish to decipher sometimes. You'll have a better chance of pulling ahead on any one session but there's some losing going on.
February 20th, 2025 at 1:05:57 PM
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https://youtu.be/zPdnhyBbvfE?si=C61nzGBdP3WEC_Qq
New videos are out, this time on Laddering Lay Bets in different ways. Turns out laying against a point is really, really good for small consistent wins if you can afford the larger losses on a bad string of buckshotting the point. Add in some qualifiers for how often you go up against a shooter and this should be a fairly good strategy for people that are ok with a solid small win 60%+ of the time.
I found it interesting that proper lay bets give you a slight better house hedge than improper $100 flat bet like his other video had.
New videos are out, this time on Laddering Lay Bets in different ways. Turns out laying against a point is really, really good for small consistent wins if you can afford the larger losses on a bad string of buckshotting the point. Add in some qualifiers for how often you go up against a shooter and this should be a fairly good strategy for people that are ok with a solid small win 60%+ of the time.
I found it interesting that proper lay bets give you a slight better house hedge than improper $100 flat bet like his other video had.
