Three Point Molly - How hot does a shooter have to be?

I ran a simulation of the 3 point molly with single odds on a $15 min table.

This is my starter strategy since it's low house edge, and lower bankroll than 3-4-5 would be. I found some fairly interesting results.

One of the questions I really wanted to answer is "how many rolls until you're playing with house money". Turns out at the 9th roll you have a 53% chance of playing with house money, but only 37% of shooters make it that far.

By the 17th roll, 90% of players are playing with house money, and by the 26th roll 99% are up, but unfortunately only 2% of shooters make it this far!

I made a video on this. I'm not sure if I can share it on here (don't want to break the rules) but some of you might be interested in it. I'll link it below. I'd love feedback and questions on this analysis.

So I'm guessing the HA would be 2/3rds of what you found if the stakes were $10 PL/Come with $20 odds, or $836K instead of ~$1.25M.
I'm kind of miffed at the lack of an upside to this game except in extreme circumstances, like over 20 rolls as a hot shooter.
I would frame it another way: how long can a $2,250 buy-in last with either $15 line with single odds or $10 line with double odds (based on a $30 x 3 x 25 bet buy-in) and what range of session money do you hit along the way? 10 shooters is not my typical yardstick, but 25 bet buy-ins are. Maybe your program limits results to 10 shooters if it's dicer.io, so I won't see any different.
3 Point Dolly players take note, you might be good if everybody is shooting 8 rolls or less on purpose.

Interesting way to look at it. Back of envelope, if we assume 40 rolls per hour, that could be (25+ shooters * 8.5 rolls per shooter) / 40 rolls per hour = 5.3 hours at the table? In actuality the 25 bet will last you a bit longer than that.

Am I understanding you correctly?

I can simulate any number of shooters (I'm using a custom simulation engine that I wrote myself). I was just trying to get to a moderate scenario and figured 10 shooters is something good to aim for.

One of my earliest trips to the craps table had a round of shooters going point 7-out, so that would have emptied whatever session money you were counting on for 10 shooters, oh but not, because only the odds bets on the PL would lose and the come bet and PL would push each other.

I used to bring 10 PL bets for session money and I expected that to last for 30 to 90 minutes before I either doubled up or went to $0. That doesn't include come bets or odds.

For the purposes of your video you picked good criteria, but the $16 odds bet kind of threw me a little, but maybe it doesn't matter since it's an odds bet anyway with 0% HA. I guess you are noticing table minimums haven't come back down to $10 yet in many places.

I notice with your 10 shooter metric, the biggest session loss was about 26X $30 bets, and the biggest win was about 52X $30 bets, so there was clearly a 2 to 1 bigger upside in specific sessions, but not all sessions.

It's $16 on the 5 and 9 only, otherwise 15 on the 4, 6, 8, 10. So that the 3:2 odds pays $24 rather than rounding down to $22 (true payout would be $15 * 1.5 = $22.50).