MRK444
• Posts: 2
Joined: Apr 3, 2024
April 4th, 2024 at 7:54:34 AM permalink
Referencing the Craps Survival Table at /games/craps/number-of-rolls/

The probability of rolling a seven is 16.67%, so not throwing a seven would be 83.33%. So why is the probability of survival (third column) diminish after each roll? Why wouldn't it be 83.33% after every roll, the dice have no memory. I'm not questioning the math, I know the Wizard is the Wizard. But why on the 10th roll do you only have a probably of surviving further of only 27.6%, when at any time the probably of not rolling a seven is 83.33%? To me this reeks of "the seven is due." Thank you!
Dieter
• Posts: 5606
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
April 4th, 2024 at 8:22:46 AM permalink

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/number-of-rolls/

To survive the ninth roll, you must first survive the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth rolls.

The chance of survivng the next roll is the same as surviving the last (non-come-out) roll.
May the cards fall in your favor.
MRK444
• Posts: 2
Joined: Apr 3, 2024
April 4th, 2024 at 9:10:48 AM permalink
Thank you. That makes sense. I was thinking as each roll individually.
cowboy
• Posts: 182
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
April 9th, 2024 at 8:48:57 AM permalink
I thought there was an assumption that the first point established is never made but that can certainly happen, even repeatedly. So then the next 7 is a win, the shooter "survives" and continues.

Actually looking at the the solution process, this factor seems to have been considered (problem #204)

http://mathproblems.info/working.php#s204
Dieter
• Posts: 5606
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
April 9th, 2024 at 6:59:43 PM permalink
Quote: cowboy

I thought there was an assumption that the first point established is never made but that can certainly happen, even repeatedly. So then the next 7 is a win, the shooter "survives" and continues.

Actually looking at the the solution process, this factor seems to have been considered (problem #204)

http://mathproblems.info/working.php#s204