ChallengedMilly
ChallengedMilly
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November 1st, 2023 at 12:00:21 PM permalink
Talking to a friend that was at his local casino and he said the machine was bugged and paying DP/DC bets on the 12 instead of pushing. How much of an advantage, if any, would this make towards pushing the house edge for those bets? 2 and 3 were still paying as normal, so it wasn't a case of the casino flipping the 2 BAR and 12 BAR, like some rare tables do.
odiousgambit
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November 1st, 2023 at 12:16:11 PM permalink
it goes from approx 1.4% HE to approx 1.4% Player's edge. You'd go from using free odds bets to not [you don't want extra variance], actually eliminating all other bets than DP/DC . You'd play like there's no tomorrow , because probably there isn't one

somebody started an earlier thread on the same subject and realized, I think, he was being fooled by the return of the bet. I'd only guess that in fact they are wrong about this one because players would figure it out so quickly and you'd have " all the seats were taken" as part of this story
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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November 1st, 2023 at 1:18:00 PM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Talking to a friend that was at his local casino and he said the machine was bugged and paying DP/DC bets on the 12 instead of pushing. How much of an advantage, if any, would this make towards pushing the house edge for those bets? 2 and 3 were still paying as normal, so it wasn't a case of the casino flipping the 2 BAR and 12 BAR, like some rare tables do.
link to original post



DP limits? $10? $100? More? Same with DC? How many spins an hour on this machine?
ChesterDog
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November 1st, 2023 at 2:13:25 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

it goes from approx 1.4% HE to approx 1.4% Player's edge. You'd go from using free odds bets to not [you don't want extra variance], actually eliminating all other bets than DP/DC . You'd play like there's no tomorrow , because probably there isn't one

somebody started an earlier thread on the same subject and realized, I think, he was being fooled by the return of the bet. I'd only guess that in fact they are wrong about this one because players would figure it out so quickly and you'd have " all the seats were taken" as part of this story
link to original post



Yes.

With the rule change of 12's winning on don't pass, the bet becomes exactly the opposite of the pass bet. Since the player's EV on pass is -1.4141...%, the player's EV on this DP bet becomes exactly +1.4141...%.
darkoz
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November 1st, 2023 at 2:17:52 PM permalink
Quote: ChesterDog

Quote: odiousgambit

it goes from approx 1.4% HE to approx 1.4% Player's edge. You'd go from using free odds bets to not [you don't want extra variance], actually eliminating all other bets than DP/DC . You'd play like there's no tomorrow , because probably there isn't one

somebody started an earlier thread on the same subject and realized, I think, he was being fooled by the return of the bet. I'd only guess that in fact they are wrong about this one because players would figure it out so quickly and you'd have " all the seats were taken" as part of this story
link to original post



Yes.

With the rule change of 12's winning on don't pass, the bet becomes exactly the opposite of the pass bet. Since the player's EV on pass is -1.4141...%, the player's EV on this DP bet becomes exactly +1.4141...%.
link to original post



So correct me if I am wrong but correct strategy would be to play DP only and Lay full odds on 4 or 10 while taking down your DP bet on all others? Or some variation of that?

Or perhaps just take down all DP bets. Free odds means no edge. Wager the edge on DP and ignore everything else. No point in exposing money to even the free odds.
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Mental
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November 1st, 2023 at 2:29:59 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: ChesterDog

Quote: odiousgambit

it goes from approx 1.4% HE to approx 1.4% Player's edge. You'd go from using free odds bets to not [you don't want extra variance], actually eliminating all other bets than DP/DC . You'd play like there's no tomorrow , because probably there isn't one

somebody started an earlier thread on the same subject and realized, I think, he was being fooled by the return of the bet. I'd only guess that in fact they are wrong about this one because players would figure it out so quickly and you'd have " all the seats were taken" as part of this story
link to original post



Yes.

With the rule change of 12's winning on don't pass, the bet becomes exactly the opposite of the pass bet. Since the player's EV on pass is -1.4141...%, the player's EV on this DP bet becomes exactly +1.4141...%.
link to original post



So correct me if I am wrong but correct strategy would be to play DP only and Lay full odds on 4 or 10 while taking down your DP bet on all others? Or some variation of that?

Or perhaps just take down all DP bets. Free odds means no edge. Wager the edge on DP and ignore everything else. No point in exposing money to even the free odds.
link to original post

Every eCraps game that I have played gives points/comps for odds bets, so I would lay full odds on every point.

Also, the reason that the casino locks pass/come bets but not DP/DC bets is that the player loses EV when they take down the latter bets. Just leave the bets up and lay odds on everything.
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Ace2
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November 1st, 2023 at 2:41:15 PM permalink
Play the DP line eight hours per day everyday. After three months you have a reasonable chance of a profit. But nowhere even close to a guaranteed profit. Some days/weeks youíll lose a ton of money. Thatís what 1.4% advantage gets you
Itís all about making that GTA
Wizard
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November 1st, 2023 at 2:48:22 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

it goes from approx 1.4% HE to approx 1.4% Player's edge.
link to original post



I agree. It exactly flips the 1.41% house edge on the pass to a 1.41% player edge on the don't pass.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ace2
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November 1st, 2023 at 5:10:15 PM permalink
Exactly. In this scenario you are essentially the house taking the machineís PL bet
Itís all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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November 1st, 2023 at 5:14:29 PM permalink
I'd stop messing with odds to reduce my HA and only use odds for when I hit the table limits. Bubble Craps may only have a $195 max bet on the line, with 2X odds allowed. But different casinos may limit it differently.
I heard that 3 nearby Indian casinos had individual bubble craps for a few weeks but they were taken out when a fervent bubble craps player from my local casino went there and cashed out over $10K after figuring out patterns to the dice. Makes me think they'll remove all the BJ tables if I win $10K in one night now. They must be so used to people going bust on Match the Dealer side bets that they'll never expect someone beating the game without playing side bets.
odiousgambit
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November 1st, 2023 at 5:29:55 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Play the DP line eight hours per day everyday. After three months you have a reasonable chance of a profit. But nowhere even close to a guaranteed profit. Some days/weeks youíll lose a ton of money. Thatís what 1.4% advantage gets you
link to original post

a 1.4% edge and you can, say, bet $25 max, and can follow up a DP bet with a DC bet whenever available, I'm thinking you can get in 150 bets an hour or so. $3750*1.4% is $52.50 per hour with low variance; 8 hrs over $400

I don't think you'd have a day where you lost money if you played 8 hours. I think you are undervaluing how low the variance is on the DP
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ChallengedMilly
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November 1st, 2023 at 5:40:33 PM permalink
Ok thank y'all for the math info. I'm getting this info second hand. So it wasn't returning their bet at all, they were getting paid on the 12. Complete bug in the system though, and it got fixed shortly(by the next day) after it was discovered. The person I was hearing this from didn't realize how advantageous it was and only collected a couple wins before they left the casino.
Ace2
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November 1st, 2023 at 6:05:28 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Ace2

Play the DP line eight hours per day everyday. After three months you have a reasonable chance of a profit. But nowhere even close to a guaranteed profit. Some days/weeks youíll lose a ton of money. Thatís what 1.4% advantage gets you
link to original post

a 1.4% edge and you can, say, bet $25 max, and can follow up a DP bet with a DC bet whenever available, I'm thinking you can get in 150 bets an hour or so. $3750*1.4% is $52.50 per hour with low variance; 8 hrs over $400

I don't think you'd have a day where you lost money if you played 8 hours. I think you are undervaluing how low the variance is on the DP
link to original post

No idea what youíre talking about.

The variance for DP is very close to 1 just like the pass line. Both sides are essentially a coin flip

If you play always coming then youíll get about 100 bets resolved per hour assuming 30 line decisions per hour. You will have lots of losing days and even losing weeks. The math is easy

Thatís before considering that your per-bet variance increases with DC bets because their results are correlated. They all win when a seven is rolled
Itís all about making that GTA
Wizard
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November 1st, 2023 at 6:15:07 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I heard that 3 nearby Indian casinos had individual bubble craps for a few weeks but they were taken out when a fervent bubble craps player from my local casino went there and cashed out over $10K after figuring out patterns to the dice.
link to original post



Patterns to the dice? I'll politely say I'm skeptical the dice have any pattern.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ace2
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November 1st, 2023 at 6:19:55 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: ChumpChange

I heard that 3 nearby Indian casinos had individual bubble craps for a few weeks but they were taken out when a fervent bubble craps player from my local casino went there and cashed out over $10K after figuring out patterns to the dice.
link to original post



Patterns to the dice? I'll politely say I'm skeptical the dice have any pattern.
link to original post

Were the playerís initials E.B.?
Itís all about making that GTA
odiousgambit
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November 1st, 2023 at 6:34:51 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Ace2

Play the DP line eight hours per day everyday. After three months you have a reasonable chance of a profit. But nowhere even close to a guaranteed profit. Some days/weeks youíll lose a ton of money. Thatís what 1.4% advantage gets you
link to original post

a 1.4% edge and you can, say, bet $25 max, and can follow up a DP bet with a DC bet whenever available, I'm thinking you can get in 150 bets an hour or so. $3750*1.4% is $52.50 per hour with low variance; 8 hrs over $400

I don't think you'd have a day where you lost money if you played 8 hours. I think you are undervaluing how low the variance is on the DP
link to original post

No idea what youíre talking about.

The variance for DP is very close to 1 just like the pass line. Almost identical to a coin flip (exactly 1)

If you play always coming then youíll get about 100 bets resolved per hour assuming 30 line decisions per hour. You will have lots of losing days and losing weeks. The math is easy

Thatís before considering that your per-variance increases with DC bets because their results are correlated
link to original post

yeah math is easy

let's say it's 8 hours and 1225 bets , square root of which is 35

"The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size." ... Wizard in https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/

standard deviation is "1" for the DP/DC

so one standard deviation is 35 units. 3 would be 105 units

the EV for $25 bets would be 30,625 * 1.4% = $428.75. The possible downside for 3 standard deviations would be 105*25=$2625 so subtracting that you *could* lose $2200, extremely unlucky but it wouldn't make the news. However, if extremely lucky you could win the sum of those and walk with $3000 or so in winnings

two SDs is generally as good or bad as it gets except on rare occasion and that would add or subtract to your EV $1750, range about +$2180 to -1321 in expectations with deviation

so I have to take it back that 8 hours would about guarantee success.

However, 428/[35*25] is 0.49 so the EV is about half of one SD and that I will take every time when it is +EV. And I maintain that the low variance is sweet and that you have to take it back too about the 3 months business

math mistakes possible
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
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November 1st, 2023 at 6:37:44 PM permalink
How is it low variance ? DP variance is comparable to PL, baccarat, even-money roulette, blackjack Ö.

Itís normal variance for a casino game
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ChumpChange
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November 1st, 2023 at 7:34:55 PM permalink
The machines were taken out a month before I ever got there. There's nowhere to enter my initials on the bubble craps machine when I beat the previous high score either.
Mental
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odiousgambit
November 1st, 2023 at 8:22:48 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

How is it low variance ? DP variance is comparable to PL, baccarat, even-money roulette, blackjack Ö.

Itís normal variance for a casino game
link to original post

Maybe it is normal variance for the lowest-variance bets on a table game. Quite a few table game bets have much higher variance. Most video poker and slot variance figure range from 15 to 50. Yet, I rarely have a losing quarter on slots.
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unJon
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November 2nd, 2023 at 4:38:11 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Ace2

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Ace2

Play the DP line eight hours per day everyday. After three months you have a reasonable chance of a profit. But nowhere even close to a guaranteed profit. Some days/weeks youíll lose a ton of money. Thatís what 1.4% advantage gets you
link to original post

a 1.4% edge and you can, say, bet $25 max, and can follow up a DP bet with a DC bet whenever available, I'm thinking you can get in 150 bets an hour or so. $3750*1.4% is $52.50 per hour with low variance; 8 hrs over $400

I don't think you'd have a day where you lost money if you played 8 hours. I think you are undervaluing how low the variance is on the DP
link to original post

No idea what youíre talking about.

The variance for DP is very close to 1 just like the pass line. Almost identical to a coin flip (exactly 1)

If you play always coming then youíll get about 100 bets resolved per hour assuming 30 line decisions per hour. You will have lots of losing days and losing weeks. The math is easy

Thatís before considering that your per-variance increases with DC bets because their results are correlated
link to original post

yeah math is easy

let's say it's 8 hours and 1225 bets , square root of which is 35

"The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size." ... Wizard in https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/

standard deviation is "1" for the DP/DC

so one standard deviation is 35 units. 3 would be 105 units

the EV for $25 bets would be 30,625 * 1.4% = $428.75. The possible downside for 3 standard deviations would be 105*25=$2625 so subtracting that you *could* lose $2200, extremely unlucky but it wouldn't make the news. However, if extremely lucky you could win the sum of those and walk with $3000 or so in winnings

two SDs is generally as good or bad as it gets except on rare occasion and that would add or subtract to your EV $1750, range about +$2180 to -1321 in expectations with deviation

so I have to take it back that 8 hours would about guarantee success.

However, 428/[35*25] is 0.49 so the EV is about half of one SD and that I will take every time when it is +EV. And I maintain that the low variance is sweet and that you have to take it back too about the 3 months business

math mistakes possible
link to original post



You should add full odds. It lowers your variance on the dark side.

ETA: you are failing to account for the correlation between DP and DC.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DogHand
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Dieter
November 2nd, 2023 at 5:24:54 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: ChumpChange

I heard that 3 nearby Indian casinos had individual bubble craps for a few weeks but they were taken out when a fervent bubble craps player from my local casino went there and cashed out over $10K after figuring out patterns to the dice.
link to original post



Patterns to the dice? I'll politely say I'm skeptical the dice have any pattern.
link to original post


Wizard,

Each die has a distinct pattern: the 1 is opposite the 6, the 2 is opposite the 5, and the 3 is opposite the 4.

;-)

Dog Hand
odiousgambit
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November 2nd, 2023 at 5:48:03 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

You should add full odds. It lowers your variance on the dark side.

Interesting. I'll have to investigate that , counterintuitive to me.

Quote:

ETA: you are failing to account for the correlation between DP and DC.

I don't get what you are saying. ETA?

link to original post

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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November 2nd, 2023 at 6:08:59 AM permalink
We can also look at when EV equals one SD to ponder how likely we are to profit from betting at 1.4% AP.

Being limited, Iíll have to do trial and error.

at 2500 bets the sqrt is 50, 2500 *1.4%=35 [units] getting closer
at 3600 bets, sqrt 60, 3600 * edge = 50.4 almost
at 4900 bets, itís 70, 4900*edge = 68.6 mighty, mighty close
at 5184, sqrt 72, 5184 * 1.4% = 72.576 zipped past it a bit

lets put in $25 as the bet just to do it on that last bit,

$129,600 total action, EV $1814

72 is one SD, $1800

So the point is, at one SD of deviation to the wrong side, you break about even

5184 bets at 150 bets an hour is 34.6 hours ; 4.3 sets of 8 hours

a modestly unlucky person would break even in however many days it would take to do 5200 or so bets, maybe 4 days.

Yes it could be 2,3,4 or more standard deviations and you never get to the point of a guaranteed win. You may wish to avoid such risk but as for me, Iím quite ready for it, even just 8 hours
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mental
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November 2nd, 2023 at 6:26:51 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: unJon

You should add full odds. It lowers your variance on the dark side.

Interesting. I'll have to investigate that , counterintuitive to me.

Quote:

ETA: you are failing to account for the correlation between DP and DC.

I don't get what you are saying. ETA?

link to original post

Since the odds bet is even more correlated to the DP/DC bet than subsequent DP/DC bets, this also seems wrong to me. Are you accounting for the large bet size? If you change the unit size, then the variance changes by the ratio squared. If you use constant units of variance such as $^2, then I am fairly certain that the variance increase by adding odds bets.

The correlation of the DP/DC stream is a real effect that is easily handled by a Monte Carlo simulation. You get higher variance betting with a two simultaneous DP/DC bets on the same roll versus two identical bets on two different tables at the same time. I can't be bothered to do the sim now.
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unJon
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November 2nd, 2023 at 6:29:53 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: unJon

You should add full odds. It lowers your variance on the dark side.

Interesting. I'll have to investigate that , counterintuitive to me.

Quote:

ETA: you are failing to account for the correlation between DP and DC.

I don't get what you are saying. ETA?

link to original post

Since the odds bet is even more correlated to the DP/DC bet than subsequent DP/DC bets, this also seems wrong to me. Are you accounting for the large bet size? If you change the unit size, then the variance changes by the ratio squared. If you use constant units of variance such as $^2, then I am fairly certain that the variance increase by adding odds bets.

The correlation of the DP/DC stream is a real effect that is easily handled by a Monte Carlo simulation. I can't be bothered to do the sim now.
link to original post


Good point on odds correlation. Yes that makes sense.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ChumpChange
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November 2nd, 2023 at 10:25:57 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

We can also look at when EV equals one SD to ponder how likely we are to profit from betting at 1.4% AP.

Being limited, Iíll have to do trial and error.

at 2500 bets the sqrt is 50, 2500 *1.4%=35 [units] getting closer
at 3600 bets, sqrt 60, 3600 * edge = 50.4 almost
at 4900 bets, itís 70, 4900*edge = 68.6 mighty, mighty close
at 5184, sqrt 72, 5184 * 1.4% = 72.576 zipped past it a bit

lets put in $25 as the bet just to do it on that last bit,

$129,600 total action, EV $1814

72 is one SD, $1800

So the point is, at one SD of deviation to the wrong side, you break about even

5184 bets at 150 bets an hour is 34.6 hours ; 4.3 sets of 8 hours

a modestly unlucky person would break even in however many days it would take to do 5200 or so bets, maybe 4 days.

Yes it could be 2,3,4 or more standard deviations and you never get to the point of a guaranteed win. You may wish to avoid such risk but as for me, Iím quite ready for it, even just 8 hours
link to original post




I'm more like 400 bets and try to cash out 35 units ahead, but it may take only 150 bets for an early cash out or it may take 900 bets or even 1600 bets to get there. So there's 12, 20, 30 and 40 on the square root side. On the EV side it'd be minus 2.1 units (150 bets), 5.6 units (400 bets), 12.6 units (900 bets), or 22.4 units (1600 bets). My starting session money is 25 units. If I get past 400 bets and I'm nowhere near 35 units ahead, I'll just try to cash out at 10, 15 or 20 units ahead or something like that. I try to get past 400 bets so the square root function has time to mature.
SOOPOO
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odiousgambit
November 2nd, 2023 at 1:10:40 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Quote: odiousgambit

We can also look at when EV equals one SD to ponder how likely we are to profit from betting at 1.4% AP.

Being limited, Iíll have to do trial and error.

at 2500 bets the sqrt is 50, 2500 *1.4%=35 [units] getting closer
at 3600 bets, sqrt 60, 3600 * edge = 50.4 almost
at 4900 bets, itís 70, 4900*edge = 68.6 mighty, mighty close
at 5184, sqrt 72, 5184 * 1.4% = 72.576 zipped past it a bit

lets put in $25 as the bet just to do it on that last bit,

$129,600 total action, EV $1814

72 is one SD, $1800

So the point is, at one SD of deviation to the wrong side, you break about even

5184 bets at 150 bets an hour is 34.6 hours ; 4.3 sets of 8 hours

a modestly unlucky person would break even in however many days it would take to do 5200 or so bets, maybe 4 days.

Yes it could be 2,3,4 or more standard deviations and you never get to the point of a guaranteed win. You may wish to avoid such risk but as for me, Iím quite ready for it, even just 8 hours
link to original post




I'm more like 400 bets and try to cash out 35 units ahead, but it may take only 150 bets for an early cash out or it may take 900 bets or even 1600 bets to get there. So there's 12, 20, 30 and 40 on the square root side. On the EV side it'd be minus 2.1 units (150 bets), 5.6 units (400 bets), 12.6 units (900 bets), or 22.4 units (1600 bets). My starting session money is 25 units. If I get past 400 bets and I'm nowhere near 35 units ahead, I'll just try to cash out at 10, 15 or 20 units ahead or something like that. I try to get past 400 bets so the square root function has time to mature.
link to original post



I quoted this just so I have proof someone actually posted Ďthe square root function has time to matureí.

Assuming you had no actual knowledge of when the glitch would be found out and corrected, you should use Kelly to decide on your bet size.
Mental
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odiousgambit
November 2nd, 2023 at 5:36:27 PM permalink
I did some craps MC sims and the correlation effect is not significant. I simulated betting one unit on Don't Pass on the first roll and then a second unit on Don't (Pass Come) no matter whether a point was established or not. Then, I continued rolling until both bets were resolved (if they were not resolved already on the second roll). If two points get made, then a subsequent seven makes both wagers winners. Ace believes this might increase the variance substantially. In fact, it barely changes the fraction of trials where both wagers are winner.

If both points are made for the two Don't bets, then a seven causes correlation of results. However, for any pair of wagers where the first roll is a point and the second is a seven, the results are always a win and a loss. The seven on the second roll cause anticorrelation of the results. Without sims or detailed combinatorics, it is hard to intuit whether there is net correlation or not.

I did two sets of sims. One where the second wager was made at the same table and another sim where the second wager was made at a separate uncorrelated table. This table is for 10M trials. Since rolling a 12 on the come out is a winner in this sim, there are no pushes. The only possible results for the pair of wagers are -2 units, a push, or +2 units.
-20+2
24.1375%50.3207%25.5418%
24.2941%50.0119%25.6940%

The results are essentially the same whether the wagers are correlated or not.

I believe that odiousgambit's approach of using the std dev for a stream of uncorrelated bets is good enough even when you are placing a new Don't bet on every roll.
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unJon
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November 2nd, 2023 at 6:48:09 PM permalink
Interesting Mental. If it wouldnít be too hard to do, I would be interested in seeing if the correlation builds up with a strategy (method?) of continually having a live donít come after the first roll. Thats how you would maximize EV per unit of time.

I would think the anti correlation of the come bet losing on a 7 to be substantially diluted by the higher expected number of DC bets that have traveled to a number.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mental
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November 2nd, 2023 at 7:04:13 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Interesting Mental. If it wouldnít be too hard to do, I would be interested in seeing if the correlation builds up with a strategy (method?) of continually having a live donít come after the first roll. Thats how you would maximize EV per unit of time.

I would think the anti correlation of the come bet losing on a 7 to be substantially diluted by the higher expected number of DC bets that have traveled to a number.
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Yes, I expect correlation would make more difference the longer the sequences become. I can never have more than two made points at a time in my sim.

However, the average number of made points per roll is probably less than three in a situation where you are always making a new Don't bet each roll. I don't see this having a big effect on variance.
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unJon
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November 2nd, 2023 at 7:14:25 PM permalink
The average number of rolls per shooter is about 8.5 so I would think the average number of donít comes that travel will be more than 2. But maybe youíre right and it isnít a material factor.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ChumpChange
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November 2nd, 2023 at 7:46:50 PM permalink
I don't like playing the DP because I'll get blindsided by players who throw a bunch of 7-11's on the come-out. But if I did I'd have at least 3X odds on the point. I typically wait for the point to get established and count that as roll #1 and make a bet on roll #4 on the DC, then another DC bet on roll #9, and another DC bet on roll #14. I reset the count if the shooter makes his point and establishes another point. During that come-out the shooter has the chance to win me my DC bets that are up with a 7-winner. I'm starting from $10 on a $10 table and when I get further ahead I increase my bets so eventually I'll get to a $45 DC bet which I could just make into a $15 DC + $30 odds and all higher bets have multiples of $30 odds.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Nov 2, 2023
Dieter
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November 2nd, 2023 at 8:08:41 PM permalink
I have to ask:
Is it a big problem that shooters 7 or 11 on the come out on a bubble game?
May the cards fall in your favor.
ChumpChange
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November 2nd, 2023 at 8:27:35 PM permalink
With me around, yes.
If I play DP, nobody else is at the machine and I can skip throwing 7-11's on the come-out and establish a point, then set up a DC point, then roll the 7-out, or spend 20 rolls trying. These dice are like a bad game of Folf and waiting for the right combinations to bubble up takes a lot of patience. I only get a split second to hit the button during a 15 second countdown though.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Nov 2, 2023
Dieter
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November 3rd, 2023 at 2:39:44 AM permalink
Fair enough.
Hopefully if there is something of concern, it is reliable enough to find advantage playing the other side.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Mental
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November 3rd, 2023 at 5:24:06 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I don't like playing the DP because I'll get blindsided by players who throw a bunch of 7-11's on the come-out. But if I did I'd have at least 3X odds on the point. I typically wait for the point to get established and count that as roll #1 and make a bet on roll #4 on the DC, then another DC bet on roll #9, and another DC bet on roll #14. I reset the count if the shooter makes his point and establishes another point. During that come-out the shooter has the chance to win me my DC bets that are up with a 7-winner. I'm starting from $10 on a $10 table and when I get further ahead I increase my bets so eventually I'll get to a $45 DC bet which I could just make into a $15 DC + $30 odds and all higher bets have multiples of $30 odds.
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I am happy for you that you found a system that isn't ever affected by shooters rolling the wrong number. When I play at a casino, I don't mind being exposed to chance. I just play the bet with the better EV. If you are afraid of a seven on the come out roll, why don't you just bet Any Seven?
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ChumpChange
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November 3rd, 2023 at 5:43:08 AM permalink
I had a point of 4 to roll and I must have rolled craps numbers like half a dozen times in a row twice. There was another player ramping up his bets on the horn numbers. Yeah, there's times like that where it would pay to have my horn bet progressions in mind and ready. But for now with my limited bankroll I'll save it for later.
Mental
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November 3rd, 2023 at 5:55:11 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I had a point of 4 to roll and I must have rolled craps numbers like half a dozen times in a row twice. There was another player ramping up his bets on the horn numbers. Yeah, there's times like that where it would pay to have my horn bet progressions in mind and ready. But for now with my limited bankroll I'll save it for later.
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Have you ever considered that maybe you have a limited bankroll because your strategies are ruled superstition rather than math?
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ChumpChange
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November 3rd, 2023 at 6:08:04 AM permalink
My limited bankroll comes from not winning enough to create one. The table minimums have gone up 500% and left me alone with a bubble craps machine during a pandemic that did shut down the casinos almost permanently.
SOOPOO
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November 3rd, 2023 at 6:11:25 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

My limited bankroll comes from not winning enough to create one. The table minimums have gone up 500% and left me alone with a bubble craps machine during a pandemic that did shut down the casinos almost permanently.
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Have you considered not gambling? Seriously!
ChumpChange
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November 3rd, 2023 at 6:16:24 AM permalink
It would only take a few lucky sessions to put me on the road to riches, but where are those lucky sessions?
SOOPOO
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November 3rd, 2023 at 6:23:05 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

It would only take a few lucky sessions to put me on the road to riches, but where are those lucky sessions?
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Those lucky sessions would just be a detour on the road to rags.
odiousgambit
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November 3rd, 2023 at 9:43:44 AM permalink
Craps is not the game for limited bankroll
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
FatGeezus
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November 3rd, 2023 at 9:44:41 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

It would only take a few lucky sessions to put me on the road to riches, but where are those lucky sessions?
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This reminded me of a commercial that was on TV about 30 years ago. I can't remember what the commercial was for. It was probably for an investment firm.

The married couple arrive by plane in Las Vegas. They were getting off the plane and the husband says to his wife "Come on Honey, I only have three days to win a bundle."

The wife replies "Even if you win a bundle, You will still be down four bundles."
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November 3rd, 2023 at 12:15:09 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I heard that 3 nearby Indian casinos had individual bubble craps for a few weeks but they were taken out when a fervent bubble craps player from my local casino went there and cashed out over $10K after figuring out patterns to the dice.
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I play the single-player machines often..

Screenshot from yesterday: 7,7,7,7,8,3,2,4,9,4,5,3,11,9,11,11,11,6,6,6,12,11,5,8,5,5,8,7
ChumpChange
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November 3rd, 2023 at 4:43:08 PM permalink
I've never played single player machines but I've seen them on YouTube. I'm still not sure if they auto roll or if the player can push a button to launch the dice. From what I've seen it's been strictly been auto roll but that could just be lazy players who just don't hit a button. They don't seem to shake the dice up quite nearly as much as the multiplayer machines but the numbered results are not really a total guide to that. Seems there's more repeaters on the single players and picking a place bet to press or winning a bunch of come bets seems to be the favorites here. The videos I see are players pressing up their $5 bets to the table max on long rolls, but most video makers are horrible players of this game.
Mental
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November 7th, 2023 at 11:33:48 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: unJon

Interesting Mental. If it wouldnít be too hard to do, I would be interested in seeing if the correlation builds up with a strategy (method?) of continually having a live donít come after the first roll. Thats how you would maximize EV per unit of time.

I would think the anti correlation of the come bet losing on a 7 to be substantially diluted by the higher expected number of DC bets that have traveled to a number.
link to original post

Yes, I expect correlation would make more difference the longer the sequences become. I can never have more than two made points at a time in my sim.

However, the average number of made points per roll is probably less than three in a situation where you are always making a new Don't bet each roll. I don't see this having a big effect on variance.
link to original post


I wrote a new program to look into the issue of correlation in the results of a stream of Don't bets. I stand by my claim that the average number of Don't bets riding at any time is less than three. My program calculates the exact probability of all possible sequences of roll. I calculates the average number of Don't bets that are not resolved after the end of each round. As a sanity check, there should be 24/36 don't bets after one round of Don't bets since there are (3+4+5+5+4+3) ways of rolling a point.
RoundsAve # Dont
10.666667
21.145062
31.488683
41.735737
51.913534
62.041613
72.133968
82.200626
92.248786
102.283614
112.308825
122.327093


These are exact calculations, not Monte Carlo simulations. Therefore, it is not possible to evaluate a much larger number of rounds. (There are 3 trillion possible sequences just for 12 rolls.) It looks like this series levels off at an average of 2.375 Don't bets riding at any one time. While you may get a rare occurrence of six Don't bets active at one time, 80% of the time you will hit a point before a seven out gives you the maximum win.

I do not believe the variance of making 1000 consecutive Don't bets is much different than the variance of making 1000 independent Don't bets. I may do a few more studies to see if I can quantify the increased variance.

EDIT: I see that Mike has a Q&A on his Craps page saying that the average number of unresolved points will be approach 3/9 + 4/10 + 5/11 + 5/11 + 4/10 + 3/9 = 2.37576 in the long term.
Last edited by: Mental on Nov 7, 2023
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Mental
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November 8th, 2023 at 1:52:54 PM permalink
I did the variance calculations. A stream of consecutive Don't bets has lower variance than the same number of Don't bets made independently.

This probably arises due to the anti-correlation of the seven out. If there is one Don't bet riding, the seven out results in a push. Two independent bets have a total variance of around 2 bets^2. This push has almost zero variance.

Since there are 2.375 Don't bets riding when a seven hits, the seven is usually a small win. However, the net effect is a reduction in variance due to anti-correlation.
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ChumpChange
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November 8th, 2023 at 8:28:14 PM permalink
Well, I'm trying to win to 35 DC bets ahead before I get to 25 DC bets behind. To throw a monkey wrench in there, win 50 DC bets with 3X odds before losing 25 DC bets with 3X odds. I'll have to add the extra odds to the lay bet or the place to lose bet on the 6 or 8, since it's a 2X odds machine.
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November 9th, 2023 at 4:58:53 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Well, I'm trying to win to 35 DC bets ahead before I get to 25 DC bets behind.
link to original post



You might have better luck betting the Do side. I ran 5,155 rolls from those machines through Wincraps.

DP and one DC with 2X odds lost 96 units.

Pass Line and one Come bet with 2X odds won 31 units. Wins 76 units with zero odds and the 5 and 9.

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