## Poll

 Yes -- I'm a sucker 1 vote (12.5%) Call me maybe. 1 vote (12.5%) No -- I loathe volatility. No votes (0%) No -- Bonus Craps/Fire Bet is more fun. No votes (0%) No -- I only look stupid. 6 votes (75%) Why is colonel spelled the way it is? 3 votes (37.5%) I cheat at Wordle. 2 votes (25%) Total eclipse reminder 4-8-2024 3 votes (37.5%) My RV is still stuck in the mud at Burning Man. No votes (0%) We should all use military time. 2 votes (25%)

8 members have voted

Wizard
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September 8th, 2023 at 3:37:30 PM permalink
I was asked on my last live stream about the Marching Soldier craps strategy. Here is my interpretation of how it works on a table where you must pay the commission on the 10 in advance.

1. Make \$5 place bet on the 4.
2. If step 1 wins, then take \$14 win* plus \$1 from your stack and make \$15 place bet on the 5.
3. If step 2 wins, then make \$36 place bet on the 6.
4. If step 3 wins, then make \$78 place bet on the 8.
5. If step 4 wins, then bet \$169 win plus \$1 from your stack on the 9.
6. If step 5 wins, then you will have \$408. Take \$12 from your stack to pay the \$20 commission on a \$400 buy bet on the 10.
7. If step 6 wins, then take down the \$1200.
8. If any bet loses, then you're done.

*: By "win" I include the original bet amount.

The part about adding \$12 from your stack after a win on the 9 is an assumption of mine. I can't find any source that makes it clear what to do.

Here is my analysis.

Event Pays Probability Expectected win
Immediate loss -5 0.666667 -3.333333
Loss before 5 -6 0.200000 -1.200000
Loss before 6 -6 0.072727 -0.436364
Loss before 8 -6 0.033058 -0.198347
Loss before 9 -7 0.016529 -0.115702
Loss before 10 -19 0.007346 -0.139578
Win on 10 1181 0.003673 4.337925
Total 1.000000 -1.085399

I show the expected bet amount to be \$5.49. Dividing the expected loss of \$1.09 by the expected bet of \$5.49 gives a house edge of 19.76%.

If the commission is paid only after a win on the 10, then I would pocket \$8 after a win on the 9. A win on the 10 would have a return of \$1180. Here is my analysis under if commission is paid on wins only on the 10.

Event Pays Probability Expectected win
Immediate loss -5 0.666667 -3.333333
Loss before 5 -6 0.200000 -1.200000
Loss before 6 -6 0.072727 -0.436364
Loss before 8 -6 0.033058 -0.198347
Loss before 9 -7 0.016529 -0.115702
Loss before 10 1 0.007346 0.007346
Win on 10 1188 0.003673 4.363636
Total 1.000000 -0.912764

The lower right cell shows an expected loss of \$0.91.

Expected bet is \$5.36 for a house edge of 17.03%.

The question for the poll is would you play the Marching Soldier? Multiple votes allowed.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Gialmere
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September 8th, 2023 at 5:18:48 PM permalink
I can see the parlay logic appeal. It reminds me of the 1 3 2 4 system where you try to snowball your winnings into a big payoff while minimizing risk to your starting bankroll. Still, the only reason I can see someone here doing it is to simply say that they did. It's the craps equivalent to joining the mile high club.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
odiousgambit
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September 9th, 2023 at 5:46:02 AM permalink
I think it is always worth saying no combination of negative expectation bets can result in positive expectation.

Normally I would say then that analysis is a waste of time, however, you decided to do so. I know you didn't think it would be +EV , so what caught your interest here?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
unJon
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September 9th, 2023 at 6:41:10 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The lower right cell shows an expected loss of \$0.91.

Expected bet is \$5.36 for a house edge of 17.03%.

The question for the poll is would you play the Marching Soldier? Multiple votes allowed.
link to original post

(Quote truncated)

I just want to point out that the marching soldier combines a bunch of bets with a house edge far less than 17.03% and you end up with a Wiz calculation of a combined house edge of 17.03%. Makes sense to me as this is like a paroli.

But, many on this board denigrates ThomasK for stating that a martingale combines bets of a certain HE and leads to a combined bet with a lower HE.

Theres a contradiction in these positions.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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September 9th, 2023 at 6:54:08 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I just want to point out that the marching soldier combines a bunch of bets with a house edge far less than 17.03% and you end up with a Wiz calculation of a combined house edge of 17.03%. Makes sense to me as this is like a paroli.

But, many on this board denigrates ThomasK for stating that a martingale combines bets of a certain HE and leads to a combined bet with a lower HE.

Theres a contradiction in these positions.
link to original post

It depends how you define the house edge involving parlays. I generally only count the original wager as money bet. The reason the house edge is so high is the same money is often bet multiple times.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
tuttigym
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Joined: Feb 12, 2010
September 9th, 2023 at 8:15:23 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I was asked on my last live stream about the Marching Soldier craps strategy. Here is my interpretation of how it works on a table where you must pay the commission on the 10 in advance.

1. Make \$5 place bet on the 4.
2. If step 1 wins, then take \$14 win* plus \$1 from your stack and make \$15 place bet on the 5.
3. If step 2 wins, then make \$36 place bet on the 6.
4. If step 3 wins, then make \$78 place bet on the 8.
5. If step 4 wins, then bet \$169 win plus \$1 from your stack on the 9.
6. If step 5 wins, then you will have \$408. Take \$12 from your stack to pay the \$20 commission on a \$400 buy bet on the 10.
7. If step 6 wins, then take down the \$1200.
8. If any bet loses, then you're done.

*: By "win" I include the original bet amount.

The part about adding \$12 from your stack after a win on the 9 is an assumption of mine. I can't find any source that makes it clear what to do.

Here is my analysis.

Event Pays Probability Expectected win
Immediate loss -5 0.666667 -3.333333
Loss before 5 -6 0.200000 -1.200000
Loss before 6 -6 0.072727 -0.436364
Loss before 8 -6 0.033058 -0.198347
Loss before 9 -7 0.016529 -0.115702
Loss before 10 -19 0.007346 -0.139578
Win on 10 1181 0.003673 4.337925
Total 1.000000 -1.085399

I show the expected bet amount to be \$5.49. Dividing the expected loss of \$1.09 by the expected bet of \$5.49 gives a house edge of 19.76%.

If the commission is paid only after a win on the 10, then I would pocket \$8 after a win on the 9. A win on the 10 would have a return of \$1180. Here is my analysis under if commission is paid on wins only on the 10.

Event Pays Probability Expectected win
Immediate loss -5 0.666667 -3.333333
Loss before 5 -6 0.200000 -1.200000
Loss before 6 -6 0.072727 -0.436364
Loss before 8 -6 0.033058 -0.198347
Loss before 9 -7 0.016529 -0.115702
Loss before 10 1 0.007346 0.007346
Win on 10 1188 0.003673 4.363636
Total 1.000000 -0.912764

The lower right cell shows an expected loss of \$0.91.

Expected bet is \$5.36 for a house edge of 17.03%.

The question for the poll is would you play the Marching Soldier? Multiple votes allowed.
link to original post

IMO this strategy is totally mis-leading. It does NOT take into account the number of rolls within the hand to complete the ultimate objective. Since the 7 appears on average every six rolls, the likelihood of the ultimate win is more remote than shown. While this calculation might have some merit, the reality of table play would not bear out these HE numbers.

tuttigym
DJTeddyBear
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September 9th, 2023 at 8:41:31 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

IMO this strategy is totally mis-leading. It does NOT take into account the number of rolls within the hand to complete the ultimate objective. Since the 7 appears on average every six rolls, the likelihood of the ultimate win is more remote than shown. While this calculation might have some merit, the reality of table play would not bear out these HE numbers.
link to original post

I'm pretty sure the Wizard took that into account.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/  Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
TinMan
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September 9th, 2023 at 9:08:51 AM permalink
Ive never been a sidebet person at craps but this does seem more fun than a \$1 fire bet for a similar or lower house edge. Plus maybe you get credit for a bigger average bet on those occasions when you do get up to a \$400 10.

Also, the probability of a win is 0.003673 on the chart. What does that convert to in term of 1 out of tries? More generally, whats the formula for converting that?

If I had to brute force figure it out, Im guessing I could do something like 1/3 x 2/3 x 5/6 x 5/6 x 2/3 x 1/3 and then reduce the fraction to 1 / something?
Last edited by: TinMan on Sep 9, 2023
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
DJTeddyBear
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September 9th, 2023 at 9:39:21 AM permalink
duplicate post
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/  Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
DJTeddyBear
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Joined: Nov 2, 2009
September 9th, 2023 at 9:40:05 AM permalink
I believe I first heard of this about a year ago on the You Can Bet On That podcast. I thought it was interesting but gave it little thought.

But now that I'm thinking about it...
I typically place bets on 4 numbers, doing this either instead or at the same time, would get me nuts, so I pass,

But if I WERE to do this, I wouldn't ADD to my bets. Gotta take small wins along the way. And somewhere, take slightly larger wins so the numbers make the math easier. Be a friend to the dealers.

On a \$5 table:

Number
Bet
Win
Total
Keep
Kept
Net if Lost
Four
5
9
14
4
4
-5
Five
10
14
24
0
4
-1
Six
24
28
52
4
8
-1
Eight
48
56
104
4
12
3
Nine
100
140
240
20
32
7
Ten
220
440
660
660
692
27

On a \$10 table:

Number
Bet
Win
Total
Keep
Kept
Net if Lost
Four
10
18
28
3
3
-10
Five
25
35
60
6
9
-7
Six
54
63
117
3
12
-1
Eight
114
133
247
22
34
2
Nine
225
315
540
40
74
24
Ten
500
1000
1500
1500
1574
64

On a \$15 table:

Number
Bet
Win
Total
Keep
Kept
Net if Lost
Four
15
27
42
7
7
-15
Five
35
49
84
6
13
-8
Six
78
91
169
19
32
-2
Eight
150
175
325
25
57
17
Nine
300
420
720
70
127
42
Ten
650
1300
1950
1950
2077
112

On a \$25 table:

Number
Bet
Win
Total
Keep
Kept
Net if Lost
Four
25
50
75
10
10
-25
Five
65
91
156
6
16
-15
Six
150
175
325
25
41
-9
Eight
300
350
650
25
66
22
Nine
625
875
1500
200
266
78
Ten
1300
2600
3900
3900
4166
334

The number in bold is what you end up with if you take it down after all six hit.

Note that I didn't figure in the vig on the ten, (or four at the \$25 table).
Last edited by: DJTeddyBear on Sep 9, 2023
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/  Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
DJTeddyBear
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September 9th, 2023 at 9:43:20 AM permalink
Quote: TinMan

Also, the probability of a win is 0.003673 on the chart. What does that convert to in term of 1 out of tries?
link to original post

Basic math: Reciprical.

1 / 0.003673 = 272.257
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/  Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
ChallengedMilly
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September 9th, 2023 at 11:26:10 AM permalink
Quote: TinMan

Ive never been a sidebet person at craps but this does seem more fun than a \$1 fire bet for a similar or lower house edge. Plus maybe you get credit for a bigger average bet on those occasions when you do get up to a \$400 10.

Also, the probability of a win is 0.003673 on the chart. What does that convert to in term of 1 out of tries? More generally, whats the formula for converting that?

If I had to brute force figure it out, Im guessing I could do something like 1/3 x 2/3 x 5/6 x 5/6 x 2/3 x 1/3 and then reduce the fraction to 1 / something?
link to original post

I agree with you, this seems like a silly fun "accomplish once" kind of thing if you plan on playing craps for years/decades. Just like hitting the ATS/firebet once and never betting it again. @Wiz my understanding of Marching Soldiers is you just parlay the wins along the board, you don't have to power press / half press at all. Just make the bets proper on 6 and 8.

Overall thought I don't think I'd ever play this at an actual table. This would be a purely min-bet Roll to Win table, or Bubble craps game kind of thing. I can't imagine ever making serious money off of this compared to just about any other weird craps strategy.

I'd like to nominate this strategy for being one of the worst craps strats to exist, however it's better than the "All-in field" "all-in Hardways" and "all-in bet the 7" type strategies. Its also worse than just split the sisters.
tuttigym
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September 10th, 2023 at 8:43:05 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: tuttigym

IMO this strategy is totally mis-leading. It does NOT take into account the number of rolls within the hand to complete the ultimate objective. Since the 7 appears on average every six rolls, the likelihood of the ultimate win is more remote than shown. While this calculation might have some merit, the reality of table play would not bear out these HE numbers.
link to original post

I'm pretty sure the Wizard took that into account.
link to original post

Perhaps, but talk about guessing, there is no way to possibly quantify the rolls or 7's in the REALITY of play. One could do the simulation thing for billions of rolls and still not be nearly accurate.

One other thing for the truly "lucky," the feat could actually be accomplished in as few as six consecutive rolls. So, I am saying it is not impossible. Go for it.

What does a 17.03% HE mean exactly? Can the player only lose 17.03% of the time or 17.03% of his bankroll? What?

tuttigym
DJTeddyBear
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September 10th, 2023 at 5:21:13 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

What does a 17.03% HE mean exactly? Can the player only lose 17.03% of the time or 17.03% of his bankroll? What?

tuttigym
link to original post

Just like any other game. If you play it a billion times, you should end up with 17.03% less money.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/  Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
unJon
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September 11th, 2023 at 2:15:20 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: tuttigym

What does a 17.03% HE mean exactly? Can the player only lose 17.03% of the time or 17.03% of his bankroll? What?

tuttigym
link to original post

Just like any other game. If you play it a billion times, you should end up with 17.03% less money.
link to original post

tuttigym rejects the central limit theorem. Its not worth engaging.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ChumpChange

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September 11th, 2023 at 2:53:51 AM permalink
If you think you can roll it, bet it, otherwise stay as far away from this system as possible.
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