ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 4670
November 18th, 2022 at 7:23:16 PM permalink
I've tried to rely on my DI to play the PL to win, but I can feel the PL slipping away time and time again. It's time to try out the dark side. I'll bet the DP with 3X odds up to 2 odds losses or the equivalent, like 4 DP losses and 1 DP w/ odds loss. Then I'll switch to the PL w/ 3X odds until the shooter 7's out, then go back to the DP for the next shooter. Some shooters get lucky and make 4+ points so I'm trying to limit my losses on hot shooters, and regain some of my losses.

If I'm betting \$10 with \$30 odds (hey, there was a \$10 table on a slow night!) I'd lose \$80 on the first two DP w/ odds losses and if the shooter doesn't make the third point, I'd be down \$120. If they make the 3rd point, and it's a 4/10 I'd win \$110 back and be \$10 down, then I make another \$40 bet; if that loses it'd be down \$50 for the shooter, if it's another 4/10 point that I win (such repeaters!), I'd be up \$60, then I make another \$40 bet and I'm only \$20 ahead for the shooter.

If the point was 5/9, I'd win back \$95 and be down \$25, then subtract \$40 for the next bet to -\$65 if there's no 4th point win. If the 5/9 is the point again and it wins, I'd be up \$30 before my next \$40 puts me at -\$10.

If the point was 6/8, I'd win back \$86 and be down \$34, then subtract \$40 for the next bet to -\$74. if there's no 4th point win. If the 6/8 is the point again and it wins, I'd be up \$12 before my next bet of \$40 puts me at -\$28.

On point 7-outs: on the 4/10, I'd win \$25; on the 5/9 I'd win \$30; on the 6/8 I'd win \$35.

On lose 1 DP w/ odds bet and winning 1 DP w/ odds bet: on the 4/10 I'd be down \$15; on the 5/9 I'd be down \$10; on the 6/8 I'd be down \$5.

So how likely is it to win 1 DP w/ odds vs lose 1 then win 1 vs lose 2 DP w/ odds then win 1 (as a PL w/ odds) vs lose 2 DP w/ odds then win 2 (as PL w/ odds) vs lose 2 DP w/ odds then win 3+ (as PL w/ odds)?

If the DP w/ odds wins 60% of the time; the chances of losing 1X then winning 1X is (0.4 x 0.6 = 24%).
If losing 2 DP w/ odds bets then losing the 3rd point, those chances are (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 = 9.6%)
If losing 2 DP w/ odds bets then winning the 3rd point then losing the 4th point, those chances are (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 = 3.84%)
If losing 2 DP w/ odds bets then winning the 4th point then losing the 5th point, those chances are (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 = 1.536%)
Going on towards the 6th point is a 1% chance. (60% + 24% + 9.6% + 3.84% + 1.536% = 98.97%)

I've gone through a few 25 bet buy-ins on the PL lately so I'll try this out on my next buy-in. There's a lot of losing going on between Hot Shooters, so this will help me take advantage of the downturns when they happen and limit my losses on higher point shooters. The problem will be shooters who make 2 points and don't make the 3rd point for those \$120 losses. If the table is populated by sharpshooters, I'd just skip this and go bet the PL w/ 3X odds. Two shooters hitting 6 points each is a terrible hot streak to miss. Conversely, 6 shooters point sevening-out twice around the table is a losing streak not to miss.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Nov 18, 2022
SOOPOO

Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 10792
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November 18th, 2022 at 8:06:36 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I've tried to rely on my DI to play the PL to win, but I can feel the PL slipping away time and time again. It's time to try out the dark side. I'll bet the DP with 3X odds up to 2 odds losses or the equivalent, like 4 DP losses and 1 DP w/ odds loss. Then I'll switch to the PL w/ 3X odds until the shooter 7's out, then go back to the DP for the next shooter. Some shooters get lucky and make 4+ points so I'm trying to limit my losses on hot shooters, and regain some of my losses.

If I'm betting \$10 with \$30 odds (hey, there was a \$10 table on a slow night!) I'd lose \$80 on the first two DP w/ odds losses and if the shooter doesn't make the third point, I'd be down \$120. If they make the 3rd point, and it's a 4/10 I'd win \$110 back and be \$10 down, then I make another \$40 bet; if that loses it'd be down \$50 for the shooter, if it's another 4/10 point that I win (such repeaters!), I'd be up \$60, then I make another \$40 bet and I'm only \$20 ahead for the shooter.

If the point was 5/9, I'd win back \$95 and be down \$25, then subtract \$40 for the next bet to -\$65 if there's no 4th point win. If the 5/9 is the point again and it wins, I'd be up \$30 before my next \$40 puts me at -\$10.

If the point was 6/8, I'd win back \$86 and be down \$34, then subtract \$40 for the next bet to -\$74. if there's no 4th point win. If the 6/8 is the point again and it wins, I'd be up \$12 before my next bet of \$40 puts me at -\$28.

On point 7-outs: on the 4/10, I'd win \$25; on the 5/9 I'd win \$30; on the 6/8 I'd win \$35.

On lose 1 DP w/ odds bet and winning 1 DP w/ odds bet: on the 4/10 I'd be down \$15; on the 5/9 I'd be down \$10; on the 6/8 I'd be down \$5.

So how likely is it to win 1 DP w/ odds vs lose 1 then win 1 vs lose 2 DP w/ odds then win 1 (as a PL w/ odds) vs lose 2 DP w/ odds then win 2 (as PL w/ odds) vs lose 2 DP w/ odds then win 3+ (as PL w/ odds)?

If the DP w/ odds wins 60% of the time; the chances of losing 1X then winning 1X is (0.4 x 0.6 = 24%).
If losing 2 DP w/ odds bets then losing the 3rd point, those chances are (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 = 9.6%)
If losing 2 DP w/ odds bets then winning the 3rd point then losing the 4th point, those chances are (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 = 3.84%)
If losing 2 DP w/ odds bets then winning the 4th point then losing the 5th point, those chances are (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 = 1.536%)
Going on towards the 6th point is a 1% chance. (60% + 24% + 9.6% + 3.84% + 1.536% = 98.97%)

I've gone through a few 25 bet buy-ins on the PL lately so I'll try this out on my next buy-in. There's a lot of losing going on between Hot Shooters, so this will help me take advantage of the downturns when they happen and limit my losses on higher point shooters. The problem will be shooters who make 2 points and don't make the 3rd point for those \$120 losses. If the table is populated by sharpshooters, I'd just skip this and go bet the PL w/ 3X odds. Two shooters hitting 6 points each is a terrible hot streak to miss. Conversely, 6 shooters point sevening-out twice around the table is a losing streak not to miss.

Seriously…. Do you expect anyone to read that mess you just posted?
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 4670
November 18th, 2022 at 8:16:07 PM permalink
I don't always write in 280 characters, but when I don't, it might look like this.
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
• Posts: 2672
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November 19th, 2022 at 10:18:50 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I've tried to rely on my DI to play the PL to win, but I can feel the PL slipping away time and time again. It's time to try out the dark side. I'll bet the DP with 3X odds up to 2 odds losses or the equivalent, like 4 DP losses and 1 DP w/ odds loss. Then I'll switch to the PL w/ 3X odds until the shooter 7's out, then go back to the DP for the next shooter. Some shooters get lucky and make 4+ points so I'm trying to limit my losses on hot shooters, and regain some of my losses.

If I'm betting \$10 with \$30 odds (hey, there was a \$10 table on a slow night!) I'd lose \$80 on the first two DP w/ odds losses and if the shooter doesn't make the third point, I'd be down \$120. If they make the 3rd point, and it's a 4/10 I'd win \$110 back and be \$10 down, then I make another \$40 bet; if that loses it'd be down \$50 for the shooter, if it's another 4/10 point that I win (such repeaters!), I'd be up \$60, then I make another \$40 bet and I'm only \$20 ahead for the shooter.

If the point was 5/9, I'd win back \$95 and be down \$25, then subtract \$40 for the next bet to -\$65 if there's no 4th point win. If the 5/9 is the point again and it wins, I'd be up \$30 before my next \$40 puts me at -\$10.

If the point was 6/8, I'd win back \$86 and be down \$34, then subtract \$40 for the next bet to -\$74. if there's no 4th point win. If the 6/8 is the point again and it wins, I'd be up \$12 before my next bet of \$40 puts me at -\$28.

On point 7-outs: on the 4/10, I'd win \$25; on the 5/9 I'd win \$30; on the 6/8 I'd win \$35.

On lose 1 DP w/ odds bet and winning 1 DP w/ odds bet: on the 4/10 I'd be down \$15; on the 5/9 I'd be down \$10; on the 6/8 I'd be down \$5.

So how likely is it to win 1 DP w/ odds vs lose 1 then win 1 vs lose 2 DP w/ odds then win 1 (as a PL w/ odds) vs lose 2 DP w/ odds then win 2 (as PL w/ odds) vs lose 2 DP w/ odds then win 3+ (as PL w/ odds)?

If the DP w/ odds wins 60% of the time; the chances of losing 1X then winning 1X is (0.4 x 0.6 = 24%).
If losing 2 DP w/ odds bets then losing the 3rd point, those chances are (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 = 9.6%)
If losing 2 DP w/ odds bets then winning the 3rd point then losing the 4th point, those chances are (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 = 3.84%)
If losing 2 DP w/ odds bets then winning the 4th point then losing the 5th point, those chances are (0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 = 1.536%)
Going on towards the 6th point is a 1% chance. (60% + 24% + 9.6% + 3.84% + 1.536% = 98.97%)

I've gone through a few 25 bet buy-ins on the PL lately so I'll try this out on my next buy-in. There's a lot of losing going on between Hot Shooters, so this will help me take advantage of the downturns when they happen and limit my losses on higher point shooters. The problem will be shooters who make 2 points and don't make the 3rd point for those \$120 losses. If the table is populated by sharpshooters, I'd just skip this and go bet the PL w/ 3X odds. Two shooters hitting 6 points each is a terrible hot streak to miss. Conversely, 6 shooters point sevening-out twice around the table is a losing streak not to miss.

Chump Change,

Playing pass or DP plus max odds, your result will be about -0.32% with a standard deviation of 5. Everything you posted is just noise…your playing style and superstitions will not affect your results
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
• Posts: 2672
November 19th, 2022 at 10:22:24 AM permalink
Duplicate
It’s all about making that GTA
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 9507
November 19th, 2022 at 10:31:52 AM permalink
Chump, you know I advise to never switch sides during a session, yet here you go.

Of course the non-superstitious reason to not do that is because it makes you look like an idiot. But I have superstitious reasons too ... heh

On the other hand, assuming random results being in play, I think anyone who thinks they can tell if the table is hot or cold, or a shooter is good or bad, probably should switch sides on that impulse. It is a great exercise for such a person to find out there is no such thing as a table that *is* hot or cold, only one that *was*. You will find you are utterly unable to determine it. Then again, some people just are not going to learn ... I won't mention any names
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
• Posts: 185
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November 19th, 2022 at 10:13:37 PM permalink
I agree that switching between Dark Side and Bright Side is suboptimal. Attempting to follow any perceived tendency is a pathway to anguish and possible Tilt. In addition, reasonable tactical patterns for playing the opposing sides are dissimilar. Their mixture could become very confusing, possibly adding intellectual muddle to the emotional stew.

Pick a side, play conservatively while the outcomes remain hostile, and aggress only after the outcomes have been rewarding.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 4670
November 19th, 2022 at 10:27:54 PM permalink
I had a huge run on WinCraps with this strategy for a few days, but like all my strategies on WinCraps that start out winning big, they turn utter cold and never recover.

Yeah, I'll be losing the PL bets then switch sides at the casino then the PL starts hitting immediately. That is just cursed luck or something.
Anyway, I've got a fresh session buy-in to try this out with. I've got to score a big win soon or I'm gonna lose my patience. I've been losing on the do-side most of the time, but not all of the time.
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 9507
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November 20th, 2022 at 4:41:41 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

[snip]
Yeah, I'll be losing the PL bets then switch sides at the casino then the PL starts hitting immediately. That is just cursed luck or something.

After trying this myself eons ago, my superstitious half concluded that the Dice hate side-switchers with a vengeance! This is demonstrably ridiculous, on the other hand I have never seen it work. Since my superstition in this case doesn't harm me I will continue to avoid side-switching and caution against it! So there!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
• Posts: 5381
November 20th, 2022 at 4:50:03 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: ChumpChange

[snip]
Yeah, I'll be losing the PL bets then switch sides at the casino then the PL starts hitting immediately. That is just cursed luck or something.

After trying this myself eons ago, my superstitious half concluded that the Dice hate side-switchers with a vengeance! This is demonstrably ridiculous, on the other hand I have never seen it work. Since my superstition in this case doesn't harm me I will continue to avoid side-switching and caution against it! So there!

Quote: O'Toole's corollary of Finagle's law

The perversity of the Universe tends towards a maximum.

May the cards fall in your favor.
cowboy
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
• Posts: 181
November 20th, 2022 at 2:49:49 PM permalink
I think its bad luck to be superstitious.
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 9507
November 20th, 2022 at 4:44:35 PM permalink
Quote: cowboy

I think its bad luck to be superstitious.

I see what you did there! Clever
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
• Posts: 5381
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November 20th, 2022 at 5:45:27 PM permalink
Quote: cowboy

I think its bad luck to be superstitious.