IWannaBeAP
Joined: Aug 22, 2022
• Posts: 78
November 5th, 2022 at 12:05:13 PM permalink
The entirety of crap's house edge comes from the push on 12.

That's not counting all the sucker bets, of course.

Are you hedging for comps or something? They don't count odds for comps
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 5599
Thanks for this post from:
November 5th, 2022 at 12:54:41 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I have to wonder if it's easier to win 10 PL odds bets ahead or to win 14 DP odds bets ahead.

If I'm betting \$10 PL with \$30, \$40, \$50 odds, each point won will be \$70, so 10 wins would be \$700.
If I'm betting \$10 DP with \$60 odds, the average win will be \$50, so 14 wins would be \$700.

If I am understanding you correctly, almost certainly it's the Don't Pass one.

Every time I try running a simulation, I get to 14 more DP odds bet wins than losses about once every 112 comeouts - but I never get to 10 more Pass Line odds bet wins than losses as the number of losses minus the number of wins just keeps growing. This makes sense when you realize the probability of winning a DP odds bet once a point is established > 1/2, while the probability of winning a PL odds bet once a point is established < 1/2.
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 3760
November 5th, 2022 at 1:00:28 PM permalink
I kind of figure if there's a few hot shooters without a string of point 7-outs, they could rack up 10 PL odds wins ahead, but I may be dying of hopium here.
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 3760
November 6th, 2022 at 10:32:22 AM permalink
I woke up thinking about a set of 100 point decisions where 40 of them were winners and 60 were losers, like if all points were 5 & 9's.
If 40 PL points win \$70 for \$2800 and 60 PL points lose \$50 for \$3000, that'd be a \$200 loss that could be made up some by come-out rolls to close that \$200 gap.
If it was 50 points won & 50 points lost, that'd be \$3500 won and \$2500 lost or a \$1000 win plus whatever the come-out roll advantage is.

If betting the DP, trying to get 14 wins ahead, that'd be 67 DP odds wins times \$50 for \$3350 and 33 DP odds losses for \$2310 for a net win of \$1040 before counting the come-out losses.

If betting the DP and it comes to a 50-50 split, that'd be \$2500 in wins and \$3500 in losses for a \$1000 loss and extra loss from come-out rolls.
If betting the PL and it comes to a 33-67 split, that'd be \$2310 in wins and \$3350 in losses for a \$1040 loss with extra wins from the come-out rolls.
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Scroll that out to a set of 1000 point decisions where 400 of them were winners and 600 were losers.
If 400 PL points win \$70 for \$28K and 600 PL points lose for \$30K, that'd be a \$2K loss that could be made up by come-out rolls to close that \$2K gap.
If it was a 500-500 split, the PL bet would win \$35K and lose \$25K for a net win of \$10K.
If it was a 333-667 split, the PL bet would win \$23,310 and lose \$33,350 for a \$10,040 net loss with extra wins on come-out rolls.

If it was a 500-500 split, the DP bet would win \$25K and lose \$35K for a net loss of \$10K before adding extra losses for come-out rolls.
If it was a 333-667 split, the DP bet would win \$33,350 and lose \$23,310 for a net win of \$10,040 before counting the come-out losses.

But I've got to figure that the results will be dead even at 400-600 with not much deviation.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Nov 6, 2022