Ace2
Ace2
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ChumpChange
August 30th, 2022 at 11:39:50 AM permalink
Quote: UP84

Quote: odiousgambit

We got sidetracked from a question I was asking: all things being equal , is the variance less playing the Don't?

My point is, if you compare playing darkside going max odds, often 6x, to playing say rightside 3x4x5x or roughly equal 4x, maybe it is the case that the variance is comparable. But what if you play darkside with 4x odds? The HE is lower and I suspect the variance as well. Anybody know?
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The variance of dp/dc with max odds is definitely higher than the variance of p/c with max odds. If on a 3x4x5 table you, say, use only 4x odds with dp/dc bets, the dc/dp variance will drop down a bit and probably be close to full odds on p/c bets. Not sure how close...maybe still a bit higher.

Whatever odds are used, on either side, the overall HE will not change...The HE will be based on the flat bets only, with the dp/dc bets having a slightly lower HE than the p/c bets.
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The variance of DP with 6x odds (24.1357) is nearly identical to that of PL with 3-4-5 odds (24.1634). The DP variance would be the same as PL if a DP bet was an exact mirror of PL, but it isn't since that would give the DP bettor a 1.41% advantage over the casino. It's an exact mirror except for how 12s during comeout are treated, and that's what causes the tiny discrepancy in variance

The HE on the line bet doesn't change but the overall HE decreases with more odds since a larger portion of the total bet is not exposed to HE
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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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August 30th, 2022 at 11:48:33 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

The variance of DP with 6x odds (24.1357) is nearly identical to the that of PL with 3-4-5 odds (24.1634). The DP variance would be the same as PL if it a DP bet was an exact mirror if PL, but it isn't since that would give the DP bettor a 1.41% advantage over the casino. It's an exact mirror except for how 12s during comeout are treated, and that's what causes the tiny discrepancy in variance

have you read my response? Why isn't the variance less, the odds bet darkside being a lay bet?

where are you getting your variance figures from?

Quote:

The HE on the line bet doesn't change but the overall HE decreases with more odds since a larger portion of the total bet is not exposed to HE
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this is the thing people who don't play Craps don't get. They seem to think you might play the pass or the don't and decline to have other action. Nobody plays like that, which is I guess why they don't know, they don't play. If you are going to get more action, then no HE on that is the best you can do. All other extra action has house edge, some awful.
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are seemingly endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically, don't you see. 
Ace2
Ace2
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ChumpChange
August 30th, 2022 at 12:09:31 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit



My point is, if you compare playing darkside going max odds, often 6x, to playing say rightside 3x4x5x or roughly equal 4x, maybe it is the case that the variance is comparable. But what if you play darkside with 4x odds? The HE is lower and I suspect the variance as well. Anybody know?
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Compared to 6x, playing DP with 4x odds raises overall HE from 27 bips to 37 bips and drops variance from 24.14 to 12.71. 4X on DP would be comparable to 4 * 2/3 = 2.67x odds on PL. Compared to 3-4-5x, playing PL with 2.67x odds raises overall HE from 37 bips to 51 bips and drops variance from 24.16 to 12.33 (pretty close to 12.71 for 4x DP). If you're going to lay 4x on DP make sure you're flat betting in multiples of 6.

6x is the other side of 3-4-5x. No matter what the point is, your PL odds are paid at 6x your flat bet, which is why you lay 6x if you're betting DP
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odiousgambit
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August 30th, 2022 at 12:18:27 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: odiousgambit



My point is, if you compare playing darkside going max odds, often 6x, to playing say rightside 3x4x5x or roughly equal 4x, maybe it is the case that the variance is comparable. But what if you play darkside with 4x odds? The HE is lower and I suspect the variance as well. Anybody know?
link to original post

Compared to 6x, playing DP with 4x odds raises overall HE from 27 bips to 37 bips and drops variance from 24.14 to 12.71. 4X on DP would be comparable to 4 * 2/3 = 2.67x odds on PL. Compared to 3-4-5x, playing PL with 2.67x odds raises overall HE from 37 bips to 51 bips and drops variance from 24.16 to 12.33

thank you!

Quote:

[that's] (pretty close to 12.71 for 4x DP). If you're going to lay 4x on DP make sure you're flat betting in multiples of 6.

6x is the other side of 3-4-5x.

it is the 'other side' but it seems to be connected to making it easy for the dealers to remember what the payoff is. Somebody somewhere must have argued at some point not to allow such high free odds, but was shot down due to the 'easy for dealer' factor? Seems that way to me anyway.
Quote:

No matter what the point is, your PL odds are paid at 6x your flat bet, which is why you lay 6x if you're betting DP
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You mean if it's 3x4x5x Rightside. But you don't have to do this, and I have concluded I don't necessarily want the high variance. 12.33 suits me fine. And the HE is lower than going 4x Rightside. I'm surprised this is being discussed for the first time [first time I've seen it that is].

PS: you don't mean "paid at 6x" I don't think. Set at 6x, but pays a varying less than even
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are seemingly endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically, don't you see. 
Ace2
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August 30th, 2022 at 12:43:20 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Perhaps you can correct the following reasoning: It seems to be true that bets that pay more than even have a higher variance than lay bets. In Craps, see link, the hardways etc have a standard deviation value of 2 or 3 or so, while betting on the 2 or 12 will get you up to 5.09!

You're reasoning would hold true IF you were betting the same amounts. But you are betting 6x on DP not 3-4-5.

Here's a simple example, If you buy the 4 for $25, commission on win only (pays $49), the return is 1/3 * 74/25 = 98.67% and the SD is (1/3 * 2/3)^.5 * 74/25 = 1.3954. If you were to bet the other way, laying the 4, you'd lay $50 to win $24, the return is also 98.67% (2/3 * 74/50) and the SD is (1/3 * 2/3)^.5 * 74/50 = 0.6977. So the SD for laying is half BUT your bet amount is double, resulting in the same total SD. Same concept for DP vs Pass...you are betting more in odds (the opposite of PL odds) on DP

I believe all the "rightside/wrongside" bets are structured this way. You have the same long-term expectation and variance on either side (or essentially the same since PL and DP flat bets are close to, but not exactly opposite)

Btw it's easy to calculate variance for any odds amount
Last edited by: Ace2 on Aug 30, 2022
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Ace2
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odiousgambit
August 30th, 2022 at 12:56:19 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

You mean if it's 3x4x5x Rightside.

PS: you don't mean "paid at 6x" I don't think. Set at 6x, but pays a varying less than even
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I have no corrections to make.

Whether you're betting 3x odds on 4/10, 4x odds on 5/9, or 5x odds on 6/8, a PL odds win pays 6x flat. Which is why the inverse (DP) is to lay 6x for every point number, on which an odds win will pay 3x, 4x or 5x depending on the point
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odiousgambit
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August 30th, 2022 at 12:59:32 PM permalink
I'll see if I can study that and do it

bear in mind I'd be happy to go 6x at a $5 table, most times too at a $10 table, but $15 and $25 make for bets that are too big. Even 3x4x5x Rightside I balk at max odds when $15/25.
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are seemingly endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically, don't you see. 
Ace2
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odiousgambitChumpChange
August 30th, 2022 at 1:30:43 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

OdiousÖ. How much you bet on the Ďfreeí odds, whether on pass or donít pass, is irrelevant to the house edge. Those bets have no house edge. You are subject to the house edge SOLELY on your pass line or donít pass bets. Period.

Of course your variance will be higher the more you bet on the free odds.

Have fun!
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That concept might hold true if, for instance, you're normally a $100 passline bettor that then decides to add 3-4-5x odds "just to get more variance at no additional cost". Youíd still be a $100 bettor in terms of HE but now a $500 bettor in terms of variance! For low-edge games, you won't even notice the HE in the short term, but a 4.92 factor increase in variance is HUGE.

What that bettor should do is stay around his $100 total level by betting $25 on the PL, which will give him an average total bet of $94.44 including 3-4-5 odds. For about the same amount of action, his total cost of play will be around 74% lower since 74% of his total action is no longer exposed to any HE.

Also, the standard deviation for $25 plus 3-4-5 odds is only 23% higher than the SD for $100 with no odds since the base bet is 75% lower. The general belief is that playing max odds means huge variance, but it's actually not much of an increase if you are just reallocating your total bet amount from flat to odds. The only reason it does increase is because odds wins are paid at more than even money while PL is always even money. Average odds win pays about 2.5 for 1, a 25% increase over 2 for 1 on passline, hence the SD increase
Last edited by: Ace2 on Aug 30, 2022
Itís all about making that GTA

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