masterj
masterj
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August 1st, 2022 at 12:37:47 AM permalink
Hello,

I am playing around with some Craps ideas lately and would like to ask the following:

If we play Don't pass and a point is established, then we have an edge, haven't we? We win when a 7 hits before the point hits.
On the first role we loose if a 7 or 11 hits. (6 combos 7s and 2 combos 11 out of 36 combos)
This means we have 8 out of 36 we loose. What if we increase our bet by 1 chip whenever we loose the first bet?
We win when a 2 or 3 hits, push on a 12 and get a point the rest of the times where we have a slight edge over the house.

My question: is the bet increase of 1 chip too small to overcome the house edge of the first roll?
odiousgambit
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pwcrabb
August 1st, 2022 at 2:16:36 AM permalink
Quote: masterj

Hello,

I am playing around with some Craps ideas lately and would like to ask the following:

If we play Don't pass and a point is established, then we have an edge, haven't we? We win when a 7 hits before the point hits.

if this was the game, without going through the come-out process, there would be a player edge... If.
Quote:

On the first role we loose if a 7 or 11 hits. (6 combos 7s and 2 combos 11 out of 36 combos)
This means we have 8 out of 36 we loose. What if we increase our bet by 1 chip whenever we loose the first bet?
We win when a 2 or 3 hits, push on a 12 and get a point the rest of the times where we have a slight edge over the house.

with this kind of thinking you'll soon wind up in Martingale madness.

Quote:

My question: is the bet increase of 1 chip too small to overcome the house edge of the first roll?
link to original post

They are independent events ... you're just betting more. It will work out for you if you get lucky and you'll lose more than you would have if you don't get lucky

Only playing your own hand, the only way to take advantage of having the darkside odds on your side with points to resolve would be to be able to increase your line bet right then and there. But that is cheating and you can't do it.

Another thing to consider is that billions of players before you have tried to figure out a way to win at craps. Every possible angle, every nook and cranny of the process, has been examined exhaustively already. Give yourself a break and just enjoy playing.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AlanMendelson
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August 1st, 2022 at 3:45:30 AM permalink
Would someone run a simulation for a don't bettor who does not bet odds?

Flat bets only.
Dieter
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August 1st, 2022 at 4:42:27 AM permalink
Quote: masterj

What if we increase our bet by 1 chip whenever we loose the first bet?
link to original post



Does the number of chips you put on the felt change how the dice land?
May the cards fall in your favor.
AlanMendelson
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bushman
August 1st, 2022 at 4:52:09 AM permalink
Quote: masterj



My question: is the bet increase of 1 chip too small to overcome the house edge of the first roll?
link to original post



Bets do not alter the house edge.

The word is LOSE not loose.
masterj
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August 1st, 2022 at 5:38:24 AM permalink
Hello,

for sure not.
I was talking about 36 come out roles. In 28 roles I should not loose directly. A point gets established 24 times. In these 24 times I have a small edge because 7 has a higher expected outcome.
There is a chance that if I start a new game I only role 7s or 11s for ever.
But on average the outcome of the roles should be fair distributed, shouldn't they?
masterj
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August 1st, 2022 at 5:40:02 AM permalink
or maybe increase by X if the come out role was 7 or 11?
Dieter
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August 1st, 2022 at 6:19:44 AM permalink
Quote: masterj

or maybe increase by X if the come out role was 7 or 11?
link to original post



Unlike my ex-girlfriends, dice have no memory.
May the cards fall in your favor.
charliepatrick
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August 1st, 2022 at 6:38:37 AM permalink
Quote: masterj

...My question: is the bet increase of 1 chip too small to overcome the house edge of the first roll?...

Once a point is established you cannot add to your "don't" base bet.
odiousgambit
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August 1st, 2022 at 7:06:43 AM permalink
you are doing the Average Joe Gambler math: looking at outcomes without factoring probability

that is not proper gaming math, read a book on it... I'll say no more in this thread
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AlanMendelson
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August 1st, 2022 at 7:31:49 AM permalink
Quote: masterj


But on average the outcome of the roles should be fair distributed, shouldn't they?
link to original post



I'll give you a straight answer which many of the forum members won't do.

I won't tell you to read a book.

The problem is that there is no fair distribution of numbers. Theoretically there is but in reality you won't see it.

But that doesn't matter.

The theoretical results are good enough to tell you what you need to know.

You should know the word is LOSE and not loose.
odiousgambit
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August 1st, 2022 at 9:57:05 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: masterj


But on average the outcome of the roles should be fair distributed, shouldn't they?
link to original post



I'll give you a straight answer which many of the forum members won't do.

I won't tell you to read a book.

yes that's probably a sign of losing patience around here, but irritation builds when an OP ignores prior suggestions. And the Wizard does that too.

Quote:

The problem is that there is no fair distribution of numbers. Theoretically there is but in reality you won't see it.

But that doesn't matter.

The theoretical results are good enough to tell you what you need to know.

Is that your version of 'take a hike' or 'go read a book'? lol

Quote:

You should know the word is LOSE and not loose.
link to original post

I believe irritation may be building he he he
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
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August 1st, 2022 at 10:42:44 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Would someone run a simulation for a don't bettor who does not bet odds?

Flat bets only.
link to original post

are you being serious?
Itís all about making that GTA
Vegasrider
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August 1st, 2022 at 11:34:25 AM permalink
Iím a Donít better. But I always take the 6X free odd once the point is established. So itís no longer just an even money bet. Once you get passed the 7-11 you are the favorite to win assuming you only back the 6X against the point. so you must take advantage of the maximum allowable wager. But it doesnít mean a 7 will roll. Meaning if a point is rolled your losing 7X your initial bet. I can go broke very easily if there is shooter who rolls 4,5 or 6 points. As a Donít player, the swings are gigantic. My normal buy in is $1500-2000. Starting off playing $15 or $20 DC. Before I know it, after 4 or 5 points Iím placing $50 or 100 DC plus the 6X free odds. Thatís $700 loss if a point is rolled, or at best I get back $600 if a 6 or 8 is rolled or as low as $400 if a 4 or 10 is rolled.

I always keep track the number of rolls the shooter has rolled and the numbers that the dice has come up. I always have a pen and a chart that I use to manually keep track of the dice results. Casino doesnít have a problem with me keeping track.
Ace2
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August 1st, 2022 at 11:49:04 AM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Iím a Donít better. But I always take the 6X free odd once the point is established. So itís no longer just an even money bet. Once you get passed the 7-11 you are the favorite to win assuming you only back the 6X against the point. so you must take advantage of the maximum allowable wager. But it doesnít mean a 7 will roll. Meaning if a point is rolled your losing 7X your initial bet. I can go broke very easily if there is shooter who rolls 4,5 or 6 points. As a Donít player, the swings are gigantic. My normal buy in is $1500-2000. Starting off playing $15 or $20 DC. Before I know it, after 4 or 5 points Iím placing $50 or 100 DC plus the 6X free odds. Thatís $700 loss if a point is rolled, or at best I get back $600 if a 6 or 8 is rolled or as low as $400 if a 4 or 10 is rolled.

I always keep track the number of rolls the shooter has rolled and the numbers that the dice has come up. I always have a pen and a chart that I use to manually keep track of the dice results. Casino doesnít have a problem with me keeping track.
link to original post

Kudos for betting DP with 6x odds. At 0.27% overall edge, itís probably the best bet in the casino. The only bet that might come close would be high limit blackjack with most favorable rules, assuming you play perfect basic strategy 100% of the time (few people do, even Ace2 makes an occasional mistake)

Your swings as a donít better are the same as those of a passline bettor. With 3-4-5 odds itís a standard deviation of about 4.9 either way.

For instance, your expectation for an hour of play (assume 30 decisions, $50 flat bet) Is -$20 +/- $1350 for both pass and DP. Multiply the loss & SD by 1.8 & 1.5 for 2-point molly/dolly and by 2.4 & 1.9 for 3 point molly/dolly

Iím shocked that the casino allows you to record the rolls on paper since that must give you a winning edge. You might have to start memorizing them instead. Completely different concept for Roulette, so those tables have a screen listing the last 20 or 30 spins. How do you modify your playing strategies based on your paper records of prior rolls ?
Last edited by: Ace2 on Aug 1, 2022
Itís all about making that GTA
BillHasRetired
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August 1st, 2022 at 1:12:34 PM permalink
Pass and Don't Pass (usually called PL and DP on here) are "contract bets"óyou cannot increase them when the odds are in your favor, nor decrease them when the odds favor the house. Which means, in real play, that most crews will give you a hard time when you fiddle with the flat bet portion after the point is established. Can you increase a PL flat bet after the point is established? Yes, but in 35 years of playing, I don't recall ever seeing it happen. Can you decrease a DP after the point is established? Sure. I believe you can remove it entirely. There's a few "Darksiders" on here that can advise you better than I.


A ROLE is a part in a play or movie. Dice tumbling down the table is a ROLL.
LOOSE means "not tight", referring to fasteners. LOSE is when the dealers pick up your bets.

Everyone has a typo now and then, and I refuse to play Grammar Nazi here. But it is difficult reading a post when the words used are not the right ones. It's even harder when other people offer corrections, which are then not implemented. Misusing ROLL and LOSE in a craps thread is quite noticeable.
Vegasrider
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August 1st, 2022 at 2:16:54 PM permalink
Easy to keep track the number of rolls a shooter has or had. I usually buy a stack of $1 chips and just slide them from one side of the rack to the other after every roll. I just reset it once a 7 is rolled with a new shooter.

I use a parlay card from the sports book to ink the number rolled since the card has numbers 1-16 scrolled across the top. I only need 2-12. Once a certain number has rolled I just mark below their respective numbers. Youíd be amazed how the graph looks, just like the math. Itís in the shape of a V, with 7 usually rolled the most followed by the 6-8 and so on. Once in a while you see a huge disparity in the frequency and you just know they are overdue which I think gives me the advantage. After close to a hundred rolls if a 2 or 12 hasnít rolled, I may place a side bet on them at 30:1. May take a dozen or more rolls but it eventually gets there before the 30th roll.
DeMango
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August 1st, 2022 at 2:18:20 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

you are doing the Average Joe Gambler math: looking at outcomes without factoring probability

that is not proper gaming math, read a book on it... I'll say no more in this thread
link to original post

mYour asking someone to read! Spelt W O R K!!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
camapl
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August 1st, 2022 at 2:44:24 PM permalink
If you loose at the tables, donít let it slow your role!
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
Ace2
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camapl
August 1st, 2022 at 2:49:58 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

EYouíd be amazed how the graph looks, just like the math. Itís in the shape of a V, with 7 usually rolled the most followed by the 6-8 and so on. Once in a while you see a huge disparity in the frequency and you just know they are overdue which I think gives me the advantage. After close to a hundred rolls if a 2 or 12 hasnít rolled, I may place a side bet on them at 30:1. May take a dozen or more rolls but it eventually gets there before the 30th roll.
link to original post

If a 2 hasnít been rolled after 100 rolls, what is the probability it will show on the next roll? Obviously higher than 1 in 30, but how much higher ?
Itís all about making that GTA
Vegasrider
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August 1st, 2022 at 3:41:16 PM permalink
After a hundred rolls, maybe not on the very next roll, but what are the probabilities for the 2 to come up within the next 30 rolls? Beyond that then itís a negative loss unless you increase your bet. Just like the number 7, after 30 or 40 plus rolls, what are the probabilities that a 7 will be rolled? But I usually donít chase by hopping the 7. I just want to win my DC bet and collect my free odds.
AlanMendelson
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August 1st, 2022 at 6:27:09 PM permalink
Years ago there was a player at my table at Caesars who bet $100 on 12 for 30 rolls. Not one 12 showed so he was out $3k.

Next shooter throws 12 three times in a row.
Ace2
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odiousgambit
August 1st, 2022 at 6:34:34 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Years ago there was a player at my table at Caesars who bet $100 on 12 for 30 rolls. Not one 12 showed so he was out $3k.

Next shooter throws 12 three times in a row.
link to original post

Yeah but his theoretical loss was only $416.67
Itís all about making that GTA
masterj
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August 2nd, 2022 at 3:50:09 AM permalink
Sometimes in life you learn a lot faster by asking for information and advice, than to read a book!
As you can surely recognize, English isn't my mother language. So I will try to use the word LOSE the correct way from now on.
The question:
if I start a game of craps, is the expectation of the next 36 come out rolls, that a point will be established in 24 times?
By the way, I am fully aware that if the first 6 rolls were 7s, that this doesn't mean that there are less 7s from the 7th roll onwards.
After 6 rolls, than the new expection is again 24 points out of the NEXT 36 come out rolls.
SOOPOO
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camapl
August 2nd, 2022 at 6:58:47 AM permalink
Quote: masterj

Sometimes in life you learn a lot faster by asking for information and advice, than to read a book!
As you can surely recognize, English isn't my mother language. So I will try to use the word LOSE the correct way from now on.
The question:
if I start a game of craps, is the expectation of the next 36 come out rolls, that a point will be established in 24 times?
By the way, I am fully aware that if the first 6 rolls were 7s, that this doesn't mean that there are less 7s from the 7th roll onwards.
After 6 rolls, than the new expection is again 24 points out of the NEXT 36 come out rolls.
link to original post



Welcome. The phrase some people use is the Ďdice have no memoryí. If you have rolled a bunch of 7ís in a row, the chance the next one is a 7 is still 1/6. If you havenít rolled a 7 in 35 rolls, the chance the next one is a 7 isÖ.. still 1/6.

You use the word Ďexpectationí. I would say Ďon averageí better suits your meaning than Ďexpectationí. On average there will be 24 points established in 36 come out rolls. It would be wrong to say ĎI expect there will be 24 points in the next 36 come out rollsí


Hope this helped.
daveyandersen1
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August 2nd, 2022 at 10:15:54 AM permalink
when i see or hear things like ALLAN M. just said i always say to myself .. Thats why you have to play craps for the fun and possible winnings and not be so methodical or systematic..
AlanMendelson
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August 2nd, 2022 at 10:31:37 AM permalink
Quote: daveyandersen1

when i see or hear things like ALLAN M. just said i always say to myself .. Thats why you have to play craps for the fun and possible winnings and not be so methodical or systematic..
link to original post



Agree. It's for the fun. And for the challenge because no other game puts the outcome solely in the player's hand.
Vegasrider
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August 2nd, 2022 at 11:39:08 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: daveyandersen1

when i see or hear things like ALLAN M. just said i always say to myself .. Thats why you have to play craps for the fun and possible winnings and not be so methodical or systematic..
link to original post



Agree. It's for the fun. And for the challenge because no other game puts the outcome solely in the player's hand.
link to original post



Love the game because so many players are superstitious. As a dark side player, I welcome anyone to place their hand in the tub when I roll because thatís what I will aim at. Automatic 7 out! LOL on all the players reactions towards that person. Not my fault.
AlanMendelson
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August 2nd, 2022 at 11:53:48 AM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: daveyandersen1

when i see or hear things like ALLAN M. just said i always say to myself .. Thats why you have to play craps for the fun and possible winnings and not be so methodical or systematic..
link to original post



Agree. It's for the fun. And for the challenge because no other game puts the outcome solely in the player's hand.
link to original post



Love the game because so many players are superstitious. As a dark side player, I welcome anyone to place their hand in the tub when I roll because thatís what I will aim at. Automatic 7 out! LOL on all the players reactions towards that person. Not my fault.
link to original post



That's quite a superstition you have: a 7 out when dice hit hands.
UP84
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August 2nd, 2022 at 2:18:22 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Would someone run a simulation for a don't bettor who does not bet odds?

Flat bets only.
link to original post

Run two simulations of, say, 10 billion rolls....Simulation #1 with Don't flat bets only, and Simulation #2 with Don't flat bets (same flat amount as simulation #1), plus full odds (choose any odds 2x, 3-4-5x, 5x 10x, 100x, etc). The losses for both simulations will be statistically identical.
Ace2
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August 2nd, 2022 at 2:48:09 PM permalink
For all practical purposes, they are identical. But youíd need to run about 24 times as many rolls for DP with 3-4-5 odds to be identical, since its variance is about 24 times higher than DP without odds. Loss measured as a percentage

Either way, youíll see that your loss matches expectations of 1.36% of flat bets, ties included
Itís all about making that GTA
BillHasRetired
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pwcrabbcamapl
August 2nd, 2022 at 3:02:23 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider


{snip}
Love the game because so many players are superstitious. As a dark side player, I welcome anyone to place their hand in the tub when I roll because thatís what I will aim at. Automatic 7 out! LOL on all the players reactions towards that person. Not my fault.
link to original post



One of my most memorable rolls (to me anyway): the point was ten, and I had been rolling for at least two stick shift changes, so about 40 minutes. I just couldn't hit a 10. Then I tossed them again. One hit the back wall some crazy way and stopped dead on five. The second die hit the money (uh-oh), bounded in the air, hit a player on the back of his hand (uh-oh squared) dropped down in the tub and started to spin on one corner. It was probably only a second or so, but it seemed to be a minute, and it came up with that wonderful second five. Ten the hard way! There was something like 15k of chips on a $5 table.

Maybe two wrongs do make a right.
pwcrabb
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August 2nd, 2022 at 3:38:02 PM permalink
Great story Bill. 👏 Experienced players all know the tension that builds up over a very long Hand with many pressed wagers on the layout, then add a lengthy Pass Point, then add a gyroscope die, then add the hardway win. Major cheers around the table.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
loldongs
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August 2nd, 2022 at 5:34:14 PM permalink
Quote: BillHasRetired

The second die hit the money (uh-oh), bounded in the air, hit a player on the back of his hand (uh-oh squared) dropped down in the tub and started to spin on one corner. It was probably only a second or so, but it seemed to be a minute, and it came up with that wonderful second five.



when you say "the tub" do you mean the little dish by the stickman they keep the spare dice in? every time i've landed one in there, it was immediately called a no-roll.
loldongs
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August 2nd, 2022 at 5:34:25 PM permalink
Quote: BillHasRetired

The second die hit the money (uh-oh), bounded in the air, hit a player on the back of his hand (uh-oh squared) dropped down in the tub and started to spin on one corner. It was probably only a second or so, but it seemed to be a minute, and it came up with that wonderful second five.



when you say "the tub" do you mean the little dish by the stickman they keep the spare dice in? every time i've landed one in there, it was immediately called a no-roll.
pwcrabb
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August 2nd, 2022 at 6:05:07 PM permalink
Nickname "tub" describes the enclosed area of any casino craps table of any size. Tub is also an epithet for a two dealer very small table with a single array of Box numbers.

"Bowl" or "Boat" is the small dish used by the Stickman to corral unused dice. It is a no-go zone for rolled dice.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
masterj
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August 3rd, 2022 at 10:25:07 AM permalink
@ SOOPOO: on average sounds good!

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