I am playing around with some Craps ideas lately and would like to ask the following:

If we play Don't pass and a point is established, then we have an edge, haven't we? We win when a 7 hits before the point hits.

On the first role we loose if a 7 or 11 hits. (6 combos 7s and 2 combos 11 out of 36 combos)

This means we have 8 out of 36 we loose. What if we increase our bet by 1 chip whenever we loose the first bet?

We win when a 2 or 3 hits, push on a 12 and get a point the rest of the times where we have a slight edge over the house.

My question: is the bet increase of 1 chip too small to overcome the house edge of the first roll?

if this was the game, without going through the come-out process, there would be a player edge... If.Quote:masterjHello,

I am playing around with some Craps ideas lately and would like to ask the following:

If we play Don't pass and a point is established, then we have an edge, haven't we? We win when a 7 hits before the point hits.

with this kind of thinking you'll soon wind up in Martingale madness.Quote:On the first role we loose if a 7 or 11 hits. (6 combos 7s and 2 combos 11 out of 36 combos)

This means we have 8 out of 36 we loose. What if we increase our bet by 1 chip whenever we loose the first bet?

We win when a 2 or 3 hits, push on a 12 and get a point the rest of the times where we have a slight edge over the house.

They are independent events ... you're just betting more. It will work out for you if you get lucky and you'll lose more than you would have if you don't get luckyQuote:My question: is the bet increase of 1 chip too small to overcome the house edge of the first roll?

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Only playing your own hand, the only way to take advantage of having the darkside odds on your side with points to resolve would be to be able to increase your line bet right then and there. But that is cheating and you can't do it.

Another thing to consider is that billions of players before you have tried to figure out a way to win at craps. Every possible angle, every nook and cranny of the process, has been examined exhaustively already. Give yourself a break and just enjoy playing.

Flat bets only.

Quote:masterjWhat if we increase our bet by 1 chip whenever we loose the first bet?

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Does the number of chips you put on the felt change how the dice land?

Quote:masterj

My question: is the bet increase of 1 chip too small to overcome the house edge of the first roll?

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Bets do not alter the house edge.

The word is LOSE not loose.

for sure not.

I was talking about 36 come out roles. In 28 roles I should not loose directly. A point gets established 24 times. In these 24 times I have a small edge because 7 has a higher expected outcome.

There is a chance that if I start a new game I only role 7s or 11s for ever.

But on average the outcome of the roles should be fair distributed, shouldn't they?

Quote:masterjor maybe increase by X if the come out role was 7 or 11?

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Unlike my ex-girlfriends, dice have no memory.

Once a point is established you cannot add to your "don't" base bet.Quote:masterj...My question: is the bet increase of 1 chip too small to overcome the house edge of the first roll?...

that is not proper gaming math, read a book on it... I'll say no more in this thread

Quote:masterj

But on average the outcome of the roles should be fair distributed, shouldn't they?

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I'll give you a straight answer which many of the forum members won't do.

I won't tell you to read a book.

The problem is that there is no fair distribution of numbers. Theoretically there is but in reality you won't see it.

But that doesn't matter.

The theoretical results are good enough to tell you what you need to know.

You should know the word is LOSE and not loose.

yes that's probably a sign of losing patience around here, but irritation builds when an OP ignores prior suggestions. And the Wizard does that too.Quote:AlanMendelsonQuote:masterj

But on average the outcome of the roles should be fair distributed, shouldn't they?

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I'll give you a straight answer which many of the forum members won't do.

I won't tell you to read a book.

Is that your version of 'take a hike' or 'go read a book'? lolQuote:The problem is that there is no fair distribution of numbers. Theoretically there is but in reality you won't see it.

But that doesn't matter.

The theoretical results are good enough to tell you what you need to know.

I believe irritation may be building he he heQuote:You should know the word is LOSE and not loose.

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are you being serious?Quote:AlanMendelsonWould someone run a simulation for a don't bettor who does not bet odds?

Flat bets only.

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I always keep track the number of rolls the shooter has rolled and the numbers that the dice has come up. I always have a pen and a chart that I use to manually keep track of the dice results. Casino doesn’t have a problem with me keeping track.

Kudos for betting DP with 6x odds. At 0.27% overall edge, it’s probably the best bet in the casino. The only bet that might come close would be high limit blackjack with most favorable rules, assuming you play perfect basic strategy 100% of the time (few people do, even Ace2 makes an occasional mistake)Quote:VegasriderI’m a Don’t better. But I always take the 6X free odd once the point is established. So it’s no longer just an even money bet. Once you get passed the 7-11 you are the favorite to win assuming you only back the 6X against the point. so you must take advantage of the maximum allowable wager. But it doesn’t mean a 7 will roll. Meaning if a point is rolled your losing 7X your initial bet. I can go broke very easily if there is shooter who rolls 4,5 or 6 points. As a Don’t player, the swings are gigantic. My normal buy in is $1500-2000. Starting off playing $15 or $20 DC. Before I know it, after 4 or 5 points I’m placing $50 or 100 DC plus the 6X free odds. That’s $700 loss if a point is rolled, or at best I get back $600 if a 6 or 8 is rolled or as low as $400 if a 4 or 10 is rolled.

I always keep track the number of rolls the shooter has rolled and the numbers that the dice has come up. I always have a pen and a chart that I use to manually keep track of the dice results. Casino doesn’t have a problem with me keeping track.

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Your swings as a don’t better are the same as those of a passline bettor. With 3-4-5 odds it’s a standard deviation of about 4.9 either way.

For instance, your expectation for an hour of play (assume 30 decisions, $50 flat bet) Is -$20 +/- $1350 for both pass and DP. Multiply the loss & SD by 1.8 & 1.5 for 2-point molly/dolly and by 2.4 & 1.9 for 3 point molly/dolly

I’m shocked that the casino allows you to record the rolls on paper since that must give you a winning edge. You might have to start memorizing them instead. Completely different concept for Roulette, so those tables have a screen listing the last 20 or 30 spins. How do you modify your playing strategies based on your paper records of prior rolls ?

A ROLE is a part in a play or movie. Dice tumbling down the table is a ROLL.

LOOSE means "not tight", referring to fasteners. LOSE is when the dealers pick up your bets.

Everyone has a typo now and then, and I refuse to play Grammar Nazi here. But it is difficult reading a post when the words used are not the right ones. It's even harder when other people offer corrections, which are then not implemented. Misusing ROLL and LOSE in a craps thread is quite noticeable.

I use a parlay card from the sports book to ink the number rolled since the card has numbers 1-16 scrolled across the top. I only need 2-12. Once a certain number has rolled I just mark below their respective numbers. You’d be amazed how the graph looks, just like the math. It’s in the shape of a V, with 7 usually rolled the most followed by the 6-8 and so on. Once in a while you see a huge disparity in the frequency and you just know they are overdue which I think gives me the advantage. After close to a hundred rolls if a 2 or 12 hasn’t rolled, I may place a side bet on them at 30:1. May take a dozen or more rolls but it eventually gets there before the 30th roll.

mYour asking someone to read! Spelt W O R K!!Quote:odiousgambityou are doing the Average Joe Gambler math: looking at outcomes without factoring probability

that is not proper gaming math, read a book on it... I'll say no more in this thread

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If a 2 hasn’t been rolled after 100 rolls, what is the probability it will show on the next roll? Obviously higher than 1 in 30, but how much higher ?Quote:VegasriderEYou’d be amazed how the graph looks, just like the math. It’s in the shape of a V, with 7 usually rolled the most followed by the 6-8 and so on. Once in a while you see a huge disparity in the frequency and you just know they are overdue which I think gives me the advantage. After close to a hundred rolls if a 2 or 12 hasn’t rolled, I may place a side bet on them at 30:1. May take a dozen or more rolls but it eventually gets there before the 30th roll.

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Next shooter throws 12 three times in a row.

Yeah but his theoretical loss was only $416.67Quote:AlanMendelsonYears ago there was a player at my table at Caesars who bet $100 on 12 for 30 rolls. Not one 12 showed so he was out $3k.

Next shooter throws 12 three times in a row.

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As you can surely recognize, English isn't my mother language. So I will try to use the word LOSE the correct way from now on.

The question:

if I start a game of craps, is the expectation of the next 36 come out rolls, that a point will be established in 24 times?

By the way, I am fully aware that if the first 6 rolls were 7s, that this doesn't mean that there are less 7s from the 7th roll onwards.

After 6 rolls, than the new expection is again 24 points out of the NEXT 36 come out rolls.

Quote:masterjSometimes in life you learn a lot faster by asking for information and advice, than to read a book!

As you can surely recognize, English isn't my mother language. So I will try to use the word LOSE the correct way from now on.

The question:

if I start a game of craps, is the expectation of the next 36 come out rolls, that a point will be established in 24 times?

By the way, I am fully aware that if the first 6 rolls were 7s, that this doesn't mean that there are less 7s from the 7th roll onwards.

After 6 rolls, than the new expection is again 24 points out of the NEXT 36 come out rolls.

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Welcome. The phrase some people use is the ‘dice have no memory’. If you have rolled a bunch of 7’s in a row, the chance the next one is a 7 is still 1/6. If you haven’t rolled a 7 in 35 rolls, the chance the next one is a 7 is….. still 1/6.

You use the word ‘expectation’. I would say ‘on average’ better suits your meaning than ‘expectation’. On average there will be 24 points established in 36 come out rolls. It would be wrong to say ‘I expect there will be 24 points in the next 36 come out rolls’

Hope this helped.

Quote:daveyandersen1when i see or hear things like ALLAN M. just said i always say to myself .. Thats why you have to play craps for the fun and possible winnings and not be so methodical or systematic..

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Agree. It's for the fun. And for the challenge because no other game puts the outcome solely in the player's hand.

Quote:AlanMendelsonQuote:daveyandersen1when i see or hear things like ALLAN M. just said i always say to myself .. Thats why you have to play craps for the fun and possible winnings and not be so methodical or systematic..

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Agree. It's for the fun. And for the challenge because no other game puts the outcome solely in the player's hand.

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Love the game because so many players are superstitious. As a dark side player, I welcome anyone to place their hand in the tub when I roll because that’s what I will aim at. Automatic 7 out! LOL on all the players reactions towards that person. Not my fault.

Quote:VegasriderQuote:AlanMendelsonQuote:daveyandersen1when i see or hear things like ALLAN M. just said i always say to myself .. Thats why you have to play craps for the fun and possible winnings and not be so methodical or systematic..

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Agree. It's for the fun. And for the challenge because no other game puts the outcome solely in the player's hand.

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Love the game because so many players are superstitious. As a dark side player, I welcome anyone to place their hand in the tub when I roll because that’s what I will aim at. Automatic 7 out! LOL on all the players reactions towards that person. Not my fault.

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That's quite a superstition you have: a 7 out when dice hit hands.

Run two simulations of, say, 10 billion rolls....Simulation #1 with Don't flat bets only, and Simulation #2 with Don't flat bets (same flat amount as simulation #1), plus full odds (choose any odds 2x, 3-4-5x, 5x 10x, 100x, etc). The losses for both simulations will be statistically identical.Quote:AlanMendelsonWould someone run a simulation for a don't bettor who does not bet odds?

Flat bets only.

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Either way, you’ll see that your loss matches expectations of 1.36% of flat bets, ties included

Quote:Vegasrider

{snip}

Love the game because so many players are superstitious. As a dark side player, I welcome anyone to place their hand in the tub when I roll because that’s what I will aim at. Automatic 7 out! LOL on all the players reactions towards that person. Not my fault.

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One of my most memorable rolls (to me anyway): the point was ten, and I had been rolling for at least two stick shift changes, so about 40 minutes. I just couldn't hit a 10. Then I tossed them again. One hit the back wall some crazy way and stopped dead on five. The second die hit the money (uh-oh), bounded in the air, hit a player on the back of his hand (uh-oh squared) dropped down in the tub and started to spin on one corner. It was probably only a second or so, but it seemed to be a minute, and it came up with that wonderful second five. Ten the hard way! There was something like 15k of chips on a $5 table.

Maybe two wrongs do make a right.

Quote:BillHasRetiredThe second die hit the money (uh-oh), bounded in the air, hit a player on the back of his hand (uh-oh squared) dropped down in the tub and started to spin on one corner. It was probably only a second or so, but it seemed to be a minute, and it came up with that wonderful second five.

when you say "the tub" do you mean the little dish by the stickman they keep the spare dice in? every time i've landed one in there, it was immediately called a no-roll.

Quote:BillHasRetiredThe second die hit the money (uh-oh), bounded in the air, hit a player on the back of his hand (uh-oh squared) dropped down in the tub and started to spin on one corner. It was probably only a second or so, but it seemed to be a minute, and it came up with that wonderful second five.

when you say "the tub" do you mean the little dish by the stickman they keep the spare dice in? every time i've landed one in there, it was immediately called a no-roll.

"Bowl" or "Boat" is the small dish used by the Stickman to corral unused dice. It is a no-go zone for rolled dice.