DarkSideMaul
DarkSideMaul
Joined: Mar 26, 2022
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March 26th, 2022 at 11:21:16 AM permalink
The Wizard has posted “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the pass line only and backing up with 2x odds

I’m a Craps novice and big dark side fan

Questions: (pls point me to sources if already answered)
1. What is “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the “don’t pass line” and backing up with max odds for come out rolls only? How does this vary for 2x, 5x & 10x odds?

2. What is “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the “don’t pass line” and all “don’t come” opportunities and backing all of them up with max odds throughout the session? How does this vary for 2x, 5x & 10x odds? (Assume sufficient bankroll)

3. What is preferred approach to maximize gain or minimize loss during a session?

Thanks Forum!
- Dark Side Maul
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
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March 26th, 2022 at 2:21:13 PM permalink
I just started playing craps, strictly on the don’t. I always back up my bet laying max 6x odds on all numbers. I only play one number. I’ve only played about 20 sessions winning about 70% of my sessions. My normal buy-in is 2k. Play $25 on the DC and back it up with another $150. If I lose on a couple of points I up my bet to $50 and $300.
DarkSideMaul
DarkSideMaul
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March 26th, 2022 at 2:37:24 PM permalink
Thanks Vegasrider - appreciate the insight.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
Yoyomama
March 26th, 2022 at 3:06:08 PM permalink
Usually, it is break time when I see Darksider.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 26th, 2022 at 8:35:10 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Usually, it is break time when I see Darksider.
link to original post



Sometimes a big betting darksider triggers a big winning streak for the right way bettors.

The gossip is the casino fixes the magnets to milk the biggest bettors. So when a big betting don't player shows up the rest of us start smiling.

Gotta love those magnets.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 27th, 2022 at 5:38:09 AM permalink
Quote: DarkSideMaul

The Wizard has posted “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the pass line only and backing up with 2x odds

link? I believe this is the same as stating the Expected Value [EV]

Quote:

I’m a Craps novice and big dark side fan

Questions: (pls point me to sources if already answered)
1. What is “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the “don’t pass line” and backing up with max odds for come out rolls only?

it's the same for the Don't Pass or the Don't Come.

Quote:

How does this vary for 2x, 5x & 10x odds?

The EV is the same. The Variance, the swings up and down, are what vary

Quote:

2. What is “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the “don’t pass line” and all “don’t come” opportunities and backing all of them up with max odds throughout the session? How does this vary for 2x, 5x & 10x odds? (Assume sufficient bankroll)

It's the total amount bet times the house edge

Quote:

3. What is preferred approach to maximize gain or minimize loss during a session?

you're opening yourself up for wisecracks here, since the only way to do it is to bet less. But I'll add that you should put as much as you can on the free odds versus the line bet. This can be about comfort level though

Quote:

Thanks Forum!
- Dark Side Maul
link to original post

You could work out Standard Deviation to get a range of expectations. I'd show how with Craps and free odds, but I'm not absolutely sure I'm doing it right.
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are seemingly endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically, don't you see. 
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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Thanks for this post from:
pwcrabb
March 27th, 2022 at 7:07:30 AM permalink
The standard deviation (based on flat bet) for 2x, 5x and 10x is 2.234, 4.238 and 7.622 respectively. The edge is always 1.36% of flat bet. Lets define a session as 60 bets, which would be about 2 hours. If you were flat betting $25 then your expectation would be 60 * 25 * -.0136 +/- 60^.5 * 4.238 = -$20 +/- $821.

The combined edge is so small, especially relative to the variance, I don't even consider it. I'd just say about 68% of your sessions will be +/- $821 and 96% +/- $1,642

But you should always lay odds in multiples of 2, 3 or 6 (on 4/10, 5/9, and 6/8). Otherwise they will round down payoffs (dealers will usually tell you if you've laid a "breakage" amount). The most common scenario is 6x since it's the mirror of 3/4/5 and works for any point number
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 27, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
DarkSideMaul
DarkSideMaul
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March 28th, 2022 at 7:29:08 PM permalink
Thanks !
WABJ11
WABJ11
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April 17th, 2022 at 4:36:29 AM permalink
I’ve been playing the dark side for over a decade and I am up a pretty penny, not to mention all the free perks I get. I don’t care if people get angry with me. This is by far the best strategy because when a 7 is rolled (often) you win all your bets. I’ve also found that the variance is a lot more controlled usually.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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April 17th, 2022 at 12:51:28 PM permalink
Quote: WABJ11

I’ve been playing the dark side for over a decade and I am up a pretty penny, not to mention all the free perks I get. I don’t care if people get angry with me. This is by far the best strategy because when a 7 is rolled (often) you win all your bets. I’ve also found that the variance is a lot more controlled usually.
link to original post

There's no strategy in craps, other than to make the low-edge bets. The dark side is essentially the exact opposite of the "right" side, the only difference being that a 12 on comeout is a loss for pass and a push for DP.

The edge and variance are nearly identical for pass and DP, with or without free odds. True, you win every number when the seven-out comes, but you probably lost a bunch while you were waiting for the seven...and watching the right bettors winning the whole time.

Whatever you've won/lost on the dark side you could have just as easily won/lost on the right side. Think of the right side as heads and the dark side as tails...it's just a coin flip. The only difference is that craps has much higher variance than a coin flip, unless you make only pass/dp bets with no odds
It’s all about making that GTA

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