DarkSideMaul
DarkSideMaul
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March 26th, 2022 at 11:21:16 AM permalink
The Wizard has posted “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the pass line only and backing up with 2x odds

I’m a Craps novice and big dark side fan

Questions: (pls point me to sources if already answered)
1. What is “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the “don’t pass line” and backing up with max odds for come out rolls only? How does this vary for 2x, 5x & 10x odds?

2. What is “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the “don’t pass line” and all “don’t come” opportunities and backing all of them up with max odds throughout the session? How does this vary for 2x, 5x & 10x odds? (Assume sufficient bankroll)

3. What is preferred approach to maximize gain or minimize loss during a session?

Thanks Forum!
- Dark Side Maul
Vegasrider
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March 26th, 2022 at 2:21:13 PM permalink
I just started playing craps, strictly on the don’t. I always back up my bet laying max 6x odds on all numbers. I only play one number. I’ve only played about 20 sessions winning about 70% of my sessions. My normal buy-in is 2k. Play $25 on the DC and back it up with another $150. If I lose on a couple of points I up my bet to $50 and $300.
DarkSideMaul
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March 26th, 2022 at 2:37:24 PM permalink
Thanks Vegasrider - appreciate the insight.
speedycrap
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Yoyomama
March 26th, 2022 at 3:06:08 PM permalink
Usually, it is break time when I see Darksider.
AlanMendelson
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March 26th, 2022 at 8:35:10 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Usually, it is break time when I see Darksider.
link to original post



Sometimes a big betting darksider triggers a big winning streak for the right way bettors.

The gossip is the casino fixes the magnets to milk the biggest bettors. So when a big betting don't player shows up the rest of us start smiling.

Gotta love those magnets.
odiousgambit
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March 27th, 2022 at 5:38:09 AM permalink
Quote: DarkSideMaul

The Wizard has posted “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the pass line only and backing up with 2x odds

link? I believe this is the same as stating the Expected Value [EV]

Quote:

I’m a Craps novice and big dark side fan

Questions: (pls point me to sources if already answered)
1. What is “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the “don’t pass line” and backing up with max odds for come out rolls only?

it's the same for the Don't Pass or the Don't Come.

Quote:

How does this vary for 2x, 5x & 10x odds?

The EV is the same. The Variance, the swings up and down, are what vary

Quote:

2. What is “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the “don’t pass line” and all “don’t come” opportunities and backing all of them up with max odds throughout the session? How does this vary for 2x, 5x & 10x odds? (Assume sufficient bankroll)

It's the total amount bet times the house edge

Quote:

3. What is preferred approach to maximize gain or minimize loss during a session?

you're opening yourself up for wisecracks here, since the only way to do it is to bet less. But I'll add that you should put as much as you can on the free odds versus the line bet. This can be about comfort level though

Quote:

Thanks Forum!
- Dark Side Maul
link to original post

You could work out Standard Deviation to get a range of expectations. I'd show how with Craps and free odds, but I'm not absolutely sure I'm doing it right.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
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pwcrabb
March 27th, 2022 at 7:07:30 AM permalink
The standard deviation (based on flat bet) for 2x, 5x and 10x is 2.234, 4.238 and 7.622 respectively. The edge is always 1.36% of flat bet. Lets define a session as 60 bets, which would be about 2 hours. If you were flat betting $25 then your expectation would be 60 * 25 * -.0136 +/- 60^.5 * 4.238 = -$20 +/- $821.

The combined edge is so small, especially relative to the variance, I don't even consider it. I'd just say about 68% of your sessions will be +/- $821 and 96% +/- $1,642

But you should always lay odds in multiples of 2, 3 or 6 (on 4/10, 5/9, and 6/8). Otherwise they will round down payoffs (dealers will usually tell you if you've laid a "breakage" amount). The most common scenario is 6x since it's the mirror of 3/4/5 and works for any point number
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 27, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
DarkSideMaul
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March 28th, 2022 at 7:29:08 PM permalink
Thanks !
WABJ11
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April 17th, 2022 at 4:36:29 AM permalink
I’ve been playing the dark side for over a decade and I am up a pretty penny, not to mention all the free perks I get. I don’t care if people get angry with me. This is by far the best strategy because when a 7 is rolled (often) you win all your bets. I’ve also found that the variance is a lot more controlled usually.
Ace2
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April 17th, 2022 at 12:51:28 PM permalink
Quote: WABJ11

I’ve been playing the dark side for over a decade and I am up a pretty penny, not to mention all the free perks I get. I don’t care if people get angry with me. This is by far the best strategy because when a 7 is rolled (often) you win all your bets. I’ve also found that the variance is a lot more controlled usually.
link to original post

There's no strategy in craps, other than to make the low-edge bets. The dark side is essentially the exact opposite of the "right" side, the only difference being that a 12 on comeout is a loss for pass and a push for DP.

The edge and variance are nearly identical for pass and DP, with or without free odds. True, you win every number when the seven-out comes, but you probably lost a bunch while you were waiting for the seven...and watching the right bettors winning the whole time.

Whatever you've won/lost on the dark side you could have just as easily won/lost on the right side. Think of the right side as heads and the dark side as tails...it's just a coin flip. The only difference is that craps has much higher variance than a coin flip, unless you make only pass/dp bets with no odds
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
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April 17th, 2022 at 12:51:32 PM permalink
Quote: WABJ11

I’ve been playing the dark side for over a decade and I am up a pretty penny, not to mention all the free perks I get. I don’t care if people get angry with me. This is by far the best strategy because when a 7 is rolled (often) you win all your bets. I’ve also found that the variance is a lot more controlled usually.
link to original post

There's no strategy in craps, other than to make the low-edge bets. The dark side is essentially the exact opposite of the "right" side, the only difference being that a 12 on comeout is a loss for pass and a push for DP.

The edge and variance are nearly identical for pass and DP, with or without free odds. True, you win every number when the seven-out comes, but you probably lost a bunch while you were waiting for the seven...and watching the right bettors winning the whole time.

Whatever you've won on the dark side you could have just as easily won on the right side. It's a coin flip with more variance, unless you stick to line bets with no odds.
It’s all about making that GTA
pwcrabb
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DeMango
April 17th, 2022 at 3:29:56 PM permalink
I agree with Ace2. Pass and Don't are essentially opposite sides of a coin. Both sides pay a tiny tax that is theoretically equal to one Wager every 73 or 71 outcomes. 71 = ( 100 ÷ 1.414 ). For practical purposes, their respective Variances also are essentially indistinguishable.

For analytic purposes I consider Odds separately rather than blended with Flats. The degree of Odds Variance can be easily modulated by choosing varying Wager sizes from zero to table rules limits. Such flexibility adds to the joy of playing craps.
Last edited by: pwcrabb on Apr 17, 2022
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
darthvader
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May 5th, 2022 at 6:51:08 PM permalink
Quote: DarkSideMaul

The Wizard has posted “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the pass line only and backing up with 2x odds

I’m a Craps novice and big dark side fan

Questions: (pls point me to sources if already answered)
1. What is “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the “don’t pass line” and backing up with max odds for come out rolls only? How does this vary for 2x, 5x & 10x odds?

2. What is “net gain / net loss per session” for betting the “don’t pass line” and all “don’t come” opportunities and backing all of them up with max odds throughout the session? How does this vary for 2x, 5x & 10x odds? (Assume sufficient bankroll)

3. What is preferred approach to maximize gain or minimize loss during a session?

Thanks Forum!
- Dark Side Maul
link to original post



Hello DSM. Darth Vader welcomes you to the dark side. In my opinion, the key to long-term success on the dark side is not to maximize winnings, but to minimize the losses. For me, that means losing not more than one wager to any one shooter. Even random rollers get can get lucky and hit multiple points. If you chase your losses (especially with progressively higher wagers), you risk busting out. Random rollers at most casinos comprise at least 75% of the players. Eat the one loss and wait for the next victim.

Best of luck,
Darth
7-out, line away, pay the don't. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk
onebok
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May 6th, 2022 at 5:51:16 AM permalink
" Random rollers at most casinos comprise at least 75% of the players."

How would you characterize the other 25% of the players?
ChumpChange
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May 6th, 2022 at 9:07:47 AM permalink
People who set their dice and try to roll their point.
Some shooters have different motives for their throw, so making their point may not be a top priority. They may want to throw 5-7 horn numbers after they establish their point.
Vegasrider
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May 6th, 2022 at 9:29:17 AM permalink
I agree with Darrhvader. Playing Don’t and with only one number and laying 6x odds , once a shooter hits a point my action is done until the next shooter. Many may know I keep track how many rolls and points each shooter shoots. What has taken me down to multiple 1k or greater losses are shooters who hit 3,4, or 5 points. Interesting stats that I have accumulated so for a shooter rolling a point or more vs a 7 out mostly comes in streaks. I break up the stats into groups of 16 shooters and see how many 7 outs there were vs points. I can visualize by seeing on my notes how the table is leaning.
ChumpChange
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May 6th, 2022 at 9:37:01 AM permalink
I switch to the Do side after losing two points on the Don't per shooter. Kind of sucks if they don't make anymore points though.
onebok
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May 6th, 2022 at 10:45:18 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

People who set their dice and try to roll their point.
Some shooters have different motives for their throw, so making their point may not be a top priority. They may want to throw 5-7 horn numbers after they establish their point.
link to original post



That's a tall order for even the best of DI-Wannabees.
What exactly do you think setting dice and trying to roll something have to do with Darth's 25% of players?
My experience is that playing the Don'ts against DI's and setters has better outcomes than with true chicken-feeders.
ChumpChange
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May 6th, 2022 at 10:48:56 AM permalink
Maybe I could roll 5-7 horn numbers on the Come-out instead of trying for 7's, I get 11's (and 2's & 3's & 12's).
CORed
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May 6th, 2022 at 11:29:42 AM permalink
Though it may be that 25% of players try to influence the dice, I suspect that the vast majority of those don't actually succeed. I would be surprised if more than 1% of players actually achieve results significantly different from chance.
unJon
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May 6th, 2022 at 12:25:16 PM permalink
Quote: CORed

Though it may be that 25% of players try to influence the dice, I suspect that the vast majority of those don't actually succeed. I would be surprised if more than 1% of players actually achieve results significantly different from chance.
link to original post



I’ll take the under.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DeMango
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May 6th, 2022 at 3:04:38 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Maybe I could roll 5-7 horn numbers on the Come-out instead of trying for 7's, I get 11's (and 2's & 3's & 12's).
link to original post


Math craps fact. Probability of 7's equal probability of horn #"s
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
ChumpChange
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May 6th, 2022 at 3:21:49 PM permalink
If I bet the horn numbers after the point is established, it won't be a hedge bet.
Ace2
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May 6th, 2022 at 3:29:07 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I switch to the Do side after losing two points on the Don't per shooter. Kind of sucks if they don't make anymore points though.
link to original post

Even when it's a tourist shooting?
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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May 6th, 2022 at 3:31:38 PM permalink
You shake my confidence but I could be dronish and make the bet.
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