masterj
masterj
Joined: Dec 19, 2018
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February 2nd, 2022 at 8:07:22 AM permalink
Hello,
I am wondering if in Craps you will get the same even money outcomes (streaks) like in roulette, where it is possible that the same colour can come up 30+ times easily?
And is the distripution of getting x wins in a row the same of getting x losses?

Thanks
Ace2
Ace2 
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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February 2nd, 2022 at 9:13:48 AM permalink
Quote: masterj

Hello,
I am wondering if in Craps you will get the same even money outcomes (streaks) like in roulette, where it is possible that the same colour can come up 30+ times easily?
And is the distripution of getting x wins in a row the same of getting x losses?

Thanks
link to original post

On a single-zero wheel, the chance of one color appearing thirty+ times consecutively is about 1 in 1.2 billion.

It does not happen very easily. For reference purposes, the longest craps roll in history (154) was about a 1 in 6 billion chance
Itís all about making that GTA
masterj
masterj
Joined: Dec 19, 2018
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February 3rd, 2022 at 2:34:33 AM permalink
I have no clue what have been the max in Roulette.
What about the distripution of x wins in a row vs x losses? Are these the same like red/black in roulette?
Do you think the varianz is even higher in Craps cpmpared to Roulette?

Appreciate your input
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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February 3rd, 2022 at 4:08:51 AM permalink
I try to win streaks on the Pass Line, which is different than trying to win streaks on Pass Line Odds bets.
I could expect a streak of 6 or more wins on the PB 6, 8 a few times per 400 rolls.

If a streak of 6 in a row happens 2^6 = 64 rolls, that'd be 6.25 times per 400 rolls. Of course that'd be less for the 6/5 PB 6,8 bets. Only come-out rolls and point resolve rolls count on the PL, so what am I even talking about?

Roulette has much more immediate results, so playing that game will get you more streaks quicker, unless your roulette table is super slow.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Feb 3, 2022
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
masterj
February 5th, 2022 at 10:08:51 PM permalink
At the level of personal observation, Streaks of Red in Roulette and Streaks of Passes in Craps will look similar. Both outcomes are roughly balanced with their Black and Don't Pass counterparts.

At the level of algebra, Streaks of Red have probabilities of (18/38) times itself for as many repetitions as you want to calculate. Similarly, Streaks of Passes have probabilities of (1952/3960) times itself for as many repetitions as you want to calculate.

Statistical Variance and observed Volatlity will be slightly greater for Roulette.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
masterj
masterj
Joined: Dec 19, 2018
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February 23rd, 2022 at 9:11:06 AM permalink
Hi,
thank you for your input!
Do you know where I can find even money outcome lists for the Don't pass bet in Craps like Red / Black in roulette?
Ace2
Ace2 
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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February 23rd, 2022 at 10:54:51 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I try to win streaks on the Pass Line, which is different than trying to win streaks on Pass Line Odds bets.
I could expect a streak of 6 or more wins on the PB 6, 8 a few times per 400 rolls.

If a streak of 6 in a row happens 2^6 = 64 rolls, that'd be 6.25 times per 400 rolls. Of course that'd be less for the 6/5 PB 6,8 bets. Only come-out rolls and point resolve rolls count on the PL, so what am I even talking about?

Roulette has much more immediate results, so playing that game will get you more streaks quicker, unless your roulette table is super slow.
link to original post

For a 50/50 coin flip, you have a 1/64 chance of winning the next 6 flips. Each trial will last, on average, 1.96875 flips. To get 6.25 streaks of 6 you can expect it to take about 64 * 1.96875 * 6.25 =~ 788 flips. This is an estimate.

It takes an average of 2^7 - 2 = 126 flips to get a streak of 6 wins. So you can estimate 400/126 =~ 3.17 such streaks in 400 flips
Itís all about making that GTA

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