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darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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October 10th, 2021 at 11:15:04 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: MDawg

I don't know why people just have to assume that reports of improbable events are inaccurate.

All sorts of improbable events have happened throughout history.

I myself observed 22 Players in a row, at Baccarat, which is certainly less probable than 32 Reds in a row at Roulette. By the way, DarkOz, was it a single or double 0 wheel?
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Probability 22 Players in a row 0.4462^22 = 1 in 51,327,433
Probability 32 Reds in a row US Double 0 (18/38)^32 = 1 in 24,230,084,485
Probability 32 Reds in a row EU Single 0 (18/37)^32 = 1 in 10,321,314,386

E &OE
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Well I Did only witness it once :)
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
coachbelly
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
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October 10th, 2021 at 11:18:30 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

"Mathsplaining," that you seem to want to disregard.


What makes it seem like I want to disregard mathsplaining?

I acknowledged that it occurs and is likely to occur.

I don't disregard it, just as I don't disregard the harassment that the reporters have endured, and we continue to witness.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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October 10th, 2021 at 11:20:49 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AlanMendelson



Everytime an AP is questioned about unsupported claims the challenger is called a troll.

]

Can you rephrase that or explain what you mean?
link to original post



Very simple.

Everytime I question reported wins I'm labeled a troll.

It seems that calling someone a troll is the catch all defense of APs who refuse to give specifics about their special plays.

The message has been: if an AP says he won at a special play you're not supposed to ask -- just believe it because you can't challenge an AP. If you do ask you're a troll.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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October 10th, 2021 at 11:28:22 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Axelwolf I'm surprised you would even challenge my report that I lost 20 $1 hands of blackjack in a row at the Sahara.

First of all you have no idea what my ability is as a blackjack player is.

Trust me, I thought about this and I was going to put that caveat but I can't imagine it wasn't brought up whenever originally discussed, and knowing you, this wasn't a story that involved you telling us that you played BJ horribly. I would be willing to bet a small amount that you squashed any indications that you played like an idiot. Even if you were playing extra ploppy like, it would be fairly rare.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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October 10th, 2021 at 11:33:25 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: MDawg

I don't know why people just have to assume that reports of improbable events are inaccurate.

All sorts of improbable events have happened throughout history.

I myself observed 22 Players in a row, at Baccarat, which is certainly less probable than 32 Reds in a row at Roulette. By the way, DarkOz, was it a single or double 0 wheel?
link to original post



Probability 22 Players in a row 0.4462^22 = 1 in 51,327,433
Probability 32 Reds in a row US Double 0 (18/38)^32 = 1 in 24,230,084,485
Probability 32 Reds in a row EU Single 0 (18/37)^32 = 1 in 10,321,314,386

E &OE
link to original post


So what's the probability of 16 Banks in a row? because I have experienced that more than once this trip alone!
16 Banks, no intervening ties:

I took the above pic this trip but didn't take a pic of every shoe where I experienced sixteen banks in a row. And yes, I played those 16 banks and won low six figures. I didn't just watch. Doesn't that make the event less improbable in the eyes of the typical WOV naysayer, that I not only experienced but played and benefited from it?

The further beauty of that shoe was that the tie happened after the 16 Banks, so I cut the bet and then lost the next hand for not much compared to how high I had gotten with the progression.

Also, please compare your numbers with these that are wildly different!
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Sounds like it's time to break out the simulation code.

  • link to original post


    After a run of 65 million 8-deck shoes (burn one card, plus its value (count 0 cards as 10), from the top; deal all the way down until there are 6 or fewer cards left):

    14 bank wins at start: 1 / 51,677
    Probability of a shoe having a run of at least:
    15 bank wins: 1 / 3,151
    16 bank wins: 1 / 6,903
    17 bank wins: 1 / 15,108
    18 bank wins: 1 / 33,597
    19 bank wins: 1 / 70,894
    20 bank wins: 1 / 154,418
    21 bank wins: 1 / 359,171
    22 bank wins: 1 / 730,449
    link to original post

    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    coachbelly
    coachbelly
    Joined: Oct 21, 2013
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    October 10th, 2021 at 11:34:20 AM permalink
    Quote: AxelWolf

    you claim you never discussed this here until I did? The exact opposite is true. I never discussed it on the forum until you did.


    It's smart and logical to understand that Alan meant that it was not brought up in this thread until you brought it up.

    You went and found a discussion from 7 years ago, it's clear to me that's not what he was referring to.

    And what is to be accomplished by asking this question?

    Quote: AxelWolf

    Is there something wrong with you???


    Is that at all appropriate?
    AlanMendelson
    AlanMendelson
    Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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    October 10th, 2021 at 11:47:25 AM permalink
    Quote: AxelWolf

    Quote: AlanMendelson

    Axelwolf I'm surprised you would even challenge my report that I lost 20 $1 hands of blackjack in a row at the Sahara.

    First of all you have no idea what my ability is as a blackjack player is.

    Trust me, I thought about this and I was going to put that caveat but I can't imagine it wasn't brought up whenever originally discussed, and knowing you, this wasn't a story that involved you telling us that you played BJ horribly. I would be willing to bet a small amount that you squashed any indications that you played like an idiot. Even if you were playing extra ploppy like, it would be fairly rare.
    link to original post



    When I brought up losing the 20 hands i said i had bad luck. Other players at the table won some or most of their hands. I lost.

    But i wasn't an expert player. A better player might have played the cards differently. I dont know.

    Maybe had i taken one more card i would have beaten the dealer's 18. I dont know. I wasn't counting. I dont know how to count.

    What's outrageous is when i read about card counters who talk about losing $20K and call it variance. That's outrageous because shouldn't a card counter get up from the table when the count isnt working?
    darkoz
    darkoz
    Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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    October 10th, 2021 at 12:06:57 PM permalink
    Quote: AlanMendelson

    Quote: AxelWolf

    Quote: AlanMendelson

    Axelwolf I'm surprised you would even challenge my report that I lost 20 $1 hands of blackjack in a row at the Sahara.

    First of all you have no idea what my ability is as a blackjack player is.

    Trust me, I thought about this and I was going to put that caveat but I can't imagine it wasn't brought up whenever originally discussed, and knowing you, this wasn't a story that involved you telling us that you played BJ horribly. I would be willing to bet a small amount that you squashed any indications that you played like an idiot. Even if you were playing extra ploppy like, it would be fairly rare.
    link to original post



    When I brought up losing the 20 hands i said i had bad luck. Other players at the table won some or most of their hands. I lost.

    But i wasn't an expert player. A better player might have played the cards differently. I dont know.

    Maybe had i taken one more card i would have beaten the dealer's 18. I dont know. I wasn't counting. I dont know how to count.

    What's outrageous is when i read about card counters who talk about losing $20K and call it variance. That's outrageous because shouldn't a card counter get up from the table when the count isnt working?
    link to original post



    Huh?

    How would you know it didn't work until after you gambled. Card counters aren't psychic. When the count is high is when to wager. Variance means it doesn't always work but the advantage was still in the players favor.
    For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
    AxelWolf
    AxelWolf
    Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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    October 10th, 2021 at 12:21:01 PM permalink
    Quote: AlanMendelson

    Quote: AxelWolf

    Quote: AlanMendelson



    Everytime an AP is questioned about unsupported claims the challenger is called a troll.

    ]

    Can you rephrase that or explain what you mean?
    link to original post



    Very simple.

    Everytime I question reported wins I'm labeled a troll.

    It seems that calling someone a troll is the catch all defense of APs who refuse to give specifics about their special plays.

    The message has been: if an AP says he won at a special play you're not supposed to ask -- just believe it because you can't challenge an AP. If you do ask you're a troll.
    link to original post

    I never considered you a troll for wanting proof about specific plays. I have heard BS coming out of AP's mouths as well.
    No joke, on more than one occasion I heard someone claim they were on a specific play doing a specific thing. I know for a fact they were full of crap because it was my story they heard and they have just repeated it.

    You don't have to believe anything I say, It won't affect me. There are enough people who know what I'm saying is true, and can verify if need be.

    Mike wrote about a play recently. I bet had he not written about it and had I told you I played something worth XYZ and did XYZ, you wouldn't have believed it.

    I don't claim to be 100% accurate on everything I remember, but it's not going to be far off, and I'm willing to say when the exact details have faded.

    I recall a situation where you didn't believe there were loss rebates that offered more than 100% back in the past. You wanted proof, zero chance since they may do it again. The last thing I need is you investigating and asking questions. Meanwhile, there was one going on at that very time(one not worth my time). I thought about proving it to you but thought better of it for many reasons, one being that it may affect others.

    Someone not believing me is their loss.
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    MrV
    MrV
    Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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    October 10th, 2021 at 12:24:34 PM permalink
    I recall giving alan a possible "out" for his 18 yo's in a row claim shortly after he made it: given his health, I wondered whether a medical condition may have caused him to imagine, hallucinate, and / or misremember the event?

    He claims I've been on him for twenty years; it may seem that way but it is not him I had issues with, rather it was his claims.

    Back in the day he was a staunch proponent of dice setting; he couldn't do it but believed it was possible.

    That notion, i.e. the efficacy of dice setting, seems to have been debunked.

    We went round and round for years on that one.

    His posts have provided both entertainment and a degree of puzzlement, as in "How could a journalist make such a claim?"

    The Wiz gave us the math on the odds of hitting 18 yo's in a row: so astronomical as to be deemed impossible, not improbable.

    I still wonder WHY alan made the claim; unless he walks this one back as well I guess I'll never know, and that's OK, I suffer such claims gladly.

    Oh, I question them, but I still laugh.
    "What, me worry?"

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