DeMango
DeMango
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May 17th, 2020 at 5:18:14 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

What’s the math on you being born and not all the other possibilities from your father’s sperm and mother’s egg? Seriously do the math.

I did read the math some where a few decades ago. Not even close to 1/18 to the 18th power.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
DeMango
DeMango
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May 17th, 2020 at 5:22:30 PM permalink
Google is our friend: I am one out of 250,000,000. Anybody have the computing power to calculate 1/18 to the 18th power?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
unJon
unJon
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May 17th, 2020 at 8:29:42 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Google is our friend: I am one out of 250,000,000. Anybody have the computing power to calculate 1/18 to the 18th power?



#fakenews. Many orders of magnitude off on the first question.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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DeMango
May 18th, 2020 at 6:20:59 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Google is our friend: I am one out of 250,000,000. Anybody have the computing power to calculate 1/18 to the 18th power?

18 to the 18th is an answer of its own, but a good calculator can crunch this instantly

1 in 39,346,408,075,296,537,575,424

neighborhood of 10^22 in the denominator, ten sextillion for what that's worth

that one chance means it's not impossible if preposterously improbable. The question becomes why would it happen and not have received more notoriety?

sorry, Alan, once this gets started ...
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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May 18th, 2020 at 7:00:00 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

18 to the 18th is an answer of its own, but a good calculator can crunch this instantly

1 in 39,346,408,075,296,537,575,424

neighborhood of 10^22 in the denominator, ten sextillion for what that's worth

that one chance means it's not impossible if preposterously improbable. The question becomes why would it happen and not have received more notoriety?

sorry, Alan, once this gets started ...



No need to apologize to me. I enjoy it now. I saw it. You don't believe it. I never bet on it. I don't have a $1.5-million RV because of it. I didn't buy houses for my kids because of it. I never concocted stories about lost tax records that could have proved it (had I bet on it).

My error was being a stupid starting craps player who should have immediately taken names and numbers and asked for a copy of the tape.

Yes, I was blasted for not betting even $1 on the yo.

Live and learn.

Meanwhile, when I see a horn, I now bet a horn.

So which is more stupid? LOL
DeMango
DeMango
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May 18th, 2020 at 7:13:23 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

#fakenews. Many orders of magnitude off on the first question.

Got this from Google. Number of sperm in one ejaculation. But infinitesimal compared to the higher number.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
DeMango
DeMango
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May 18th, 2020 at 7:19:56 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

No need to apologize to me. I enjoy it now. I saw it. You don't believe it. I never bet on it. I don't have a $1.5-million RV because of it. I didn't buy houses for my kids because of it. I never concocted stories about lost tax records that could have proved it (had I bet on it).

My error was being a stupid starting craps player who should have immediately taken names and numbers and asked for a copy of the tape.

Yes, I was blasted for not betting even $1 on the yo.

Live and learn.

Meanwhile, when I see a horn, I now bet a horn.

So which is more stupid? LOL



Actually insulting Rob Singer doesn't add to the conversation. But you two do have one thing in common: Tall tales.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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May 18th, 2020 at 8:05:49 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Actually insulting Rob Singer doesn't add to the conversation. But you two do have one thing in common: Tall tales.



Like I said, i enjoy it now.

But all these years later no one has come forward to say "but Alan I was there at the table, and you reported this wrong."

Not a dealer, not one of the other two players including the shooter, not a supervisor or manager, no one from security... no one.

But the math is the math.
unJon
unJon
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DeMango
May 18th, 2020 at 8:42:28 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Got this from Google. Number of sperm in one ejaculation. But infinitesimal compared to the higher number.

I see. You googled the wrong thing. My fault for not being clearer. Your answer neglects the random chance of which egg mother releases, the chance that the coitus happens with that ejaculation vs another. Read a paper on this once and the chance was between one in 400 trillion and one in 400 quadrillion. Still orders of magnitude less than 18 yos, but this is only for one instance (your parents). Do the same for your grandparents, etc, and it will dwarf the 18 yos.

Which is not to say I believe the story about 18 yos. Not at all. It’s more to say that I disbelieve the story that you exist. It’s just way too unlikely an event and nothing you say to me will convince me otherwise. ;-)
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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May 18th, 2020 at 9:04:00 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I see. You googled the wrong thing. My fault for not being clearer. Your answer neglects the random chance of which egg mother releases, the chance that the coitus happens with that ejaculation vs another. Read a paper on this once and the chance was between one in 400 trillion and one in 400 quadrillion. Still orders of magnitude less than 18 yos, but this is only for one instance (your parents). Do the same for your grandparents, etc, and it will dwarf the 18 yos.

Which is not to say I believe the story about 18 yos. Not at all. It’s more to say that I disbelieve the story that you exist. It’s just way too unlikely an event and nothing you say to me will convince me otherwise. ;-)



What's really funny is that this is one of the things I brought up years ago when I first mentioned witnessing the event.

I said it was more likely that 18 yos in a row would be thrown than any one of us existing.

It's also more likely that 18 yos in a row would be thrown than it's still being discussed today years later with no new info about the event.

I'm more concerned right now with the chances that I might get back in business before 2021. But it's more likely that 18 yos in a row will continue to get more discussion.

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