Why you should always make a Come bet

I suppose this thread will irritate some, on the other hand we need our Craps threads!

I've convinced myself I should always make a Come bet - even if it is just the line bet and one Come bet. 

If you press in some other way, you probably won't be convinced. Many of you will say you've always made sure you have a Come bet , in fact I can name some names here who max out on Come bets always. But I also see plenty of people who never make Come bets. 

To always have at least one Come bet occurred to me on my last go 'round a couple of days ago. I have been a player recently that makes a line bet and then waits to see how the shooter impresses me. If I got a hunch* that a player was going to do well,  I would only then start making Come bets.

So what this would mean is a shooter with a point-to-be-made can unexpectedly start rolling a bunch of numbers before resolving his point, the big opportunity that slips away if I am sitting there with only the line bet. Even though I can see I missed out, I usually figure there's no point in trying to come in late. My evaluation on this has always been that a player just has this constant choice, either you have not much in action, and less risk, or more in action, and more risk. How can you kick yourself if you don't have a crystal ball? I have been OK with it. 

This time the dice came back around to some shooters I had a good hunch about, and I was on it, ready to make Come bets. Still, I almost always observe some caution, and even if I have a good feeling I generally will only have 2 numbers to resolve with the same shooter, maybe 3 if I have been winning, rarely more. But these shooters did what will make me the most money, they kept rolling the same number, and since I was Come betting, those were likely to be my numbers - and were. The difference is, if I only had the line bet, to get in on the number-repeating shooter, the point resolves favorably but now it is back to the Come-out and what number will it be? But if I have a Come bet up, the number just resolved favorably is also the next number to be resolved on the traveled number, and if he repeats the number I win again, and even this got repeated yet again, Come bet up again, on this night. This I can get into!

Now, this is not a 'betting system' that affects the house edge in the slightest, and no doubt this can be demonstrated, along with other ways to get lucky. But the difference is what I am willing to have in action. If the Come bet is ready to go, and the shooter by pure luck is rolling the same numbers, I keep raking in the wins without having to build up the numbers-to-be-resolved. In other words, my sense of risk is not troubled. 

I suppose it is remarkable I haven't come to this conclusion before, to always have a Come bet up; in fact I've been that kind of bettor in the past, to be sure. However, it flat out means having more in action, and thus overall more up against the house edge. In order for me to avoid this I'll have to decide to not bet at all on many shooters, or come up with some other way to limit what I have in action. 


*time for my usual disclaimer: Yes, I indulge in many superstitions when gambling in order to increase my enjoyment. However, I fully acknowledge that in reality they are mostly silly; furthermore I discard any that are the type that hurt you

I almost always make a come bet with my girlfriend.

and usually I lose.

But its considered winning too :)

What odds are you comfortable with on your Pass and Come bets? Also, if you go dark would you always play a Don't Come?

Quote: Gialmere

What odds are you comfortable with on your Pass and Come bets?

I'm comfortable with a total bet up to about $50-60 once I add the odds, so it depends on the minimum. This last place it was $10 with 3x4x5x so I maxed the odds

Quote:

Also, if you go dark would you always play a Don't Come?

Not necessarily. Of course that means a shooter that repeats numbers in sequence will kill the player who does, but I put it out of my mind if I add DC bets.

Yeah, craps is pretty dry when just playing Pass. If I'm feeling aggressive (and rich) I'll do a three point molly. If the point is a 6 I'll probably turtle up and place the 8 and vice versa (although people here prefer to buy the 4 and 10). If things are going my way I might dabble in a triple 12 garden.

I usually do a 5-count on the Don't Come. Bet on rolls (3, 8, 13) or (4, 9, 14) after each PL point gets established, and reset the count on come-out rolls. Might put up 2 or 3 numbers max.

My first big break on WinCraps was doing a 3-point Molly and I went from $1,000 to $17,000 using a progression. I was probably up near 90 bets. It all came crashing down quite quickly even though I lowered my bets on the way down. WinCraps gives me beginner's luck to learn my system then systematically flunks me with endless bad shooters.

Whether the Come bet occurs next year, next Tuesday, or the next minute, mathematics does not change. Each new Pass Line or Come bet begins a parallel game with identical rules which does not affect either previous or subsequent games. There is only a time distinction and no mathematical distinction between playing one Pass bet per hour or ninety Pass and Come bets per hour.

Each new Pass or Come bet serves as a hedge during the single roll in which Big Red is favorable. That hedge may partially offset losses of previous Pass or Come bets which have been assigned to Box numbers.

The Molly is a fine program. Consider experimenting with an expanded Molly with more than three Box numbers. The only meaningful limiting factor is bankroll. Smaller flat bets and smaller Odds multiples may be employed during your experiment, which is likely to not be boring.

Not for me, sorry. I love throwing sevens on the comeout.

Quote: DeMango

Not for me, sorry. I love throwing sevens on the comeout.

We all do.

Quote: Gialmere

Yeah, craps is pretty dry when just playing Pass. If I'm feeling aggressive (and rich) I'll do a three point molly. If the point is a 6 I'll probably turtle up and place the 8 and vice versa (although people here prefer to buy the 4 and 10). If things are going my way I might dabble in a triple 12 garden.

my search led me to this, so you might expound on that?

Quote: pwcrabb

Whether the Come bet occurs next year, next Tuesday, or the next minute, mathematics does not change. Each new Pass Line or Come bet begins a parallel game with identical rules which does not affect either previous or subsequent games. There is only a time distinction and no mathematical distinction between playing one Pass bet per hour or ninety Pass and Come bets per hour.

A player can even go crazy with the Come betting and still keep his total action the same as the guy who never makes more than one line bet per shooter. However, probably that means playing Craps for about 15 minutes for the former while the latter can play for hours; bored the whole time probably, while the first guy is bored after his 15 minute session has to end.

What I like about the situation where someone keeps rolling the same number is that it allows a response to a situation as it develops, controlling the player's total action for the right situation. That it can't be +EV still has something to do with being unable to predict results, this time predicting when someone will keep rolling the same numbers; pondering that confounds me a bit, so I think I will have to get myself back to a Craps table and work this all out ... yeah, definitely.

Quote: DeMango

Not for me, sorry. I love throwing sevens on the comeout.

I seem to like to throw my 7s in 7-outs , something I demonstrated again.

Quote: odiousgambit

my search led me to this, so you might expound on that?

He means betting the field where the 12 pays triple

Has there ever been a study as to how many established come bets are ideal?

Quote: DeMango

Has there ever been a study as to how many established come bets are ideal?

Zero. Like all negative EV games. Unless you mean something else by “ideal.”

OG,

It is entirely your fault that I play the Come at all. Thanks for that. I think overall, it's been slightly positive.

Quote: unJon

Zero. Like all negative EV games. Unless you mean something else by “ideal.”

Ideal degree of Variance? It has to be the case that the more Come bets, the greater the Variance, which can be felt viscerally too: only a line bet equals boredom. I can honestly say I've never seen anyone just make one line bet per shooter persistently unless they are newbies, almost broke, or making huge bets beyond the minimum - or something to explain it. Meanwhile keeping a Come bet going, no matter what, feels in the gut wild as hell.

So how many numbers to have up has to be pretty much an individual choice thing?

Quote: beachbumbabs

OG,

It is entirely your fault that I play the Come at all. Thanks for that. I think overall, it's been slightly positive.

Glad to hear it! And we should do that again!
PS: We were using the very clever TeddyS Method* too as I remember. Lots of fun.

*top secret

It seems to me that all you are doing playing another game within the game you have on the pass line. No different than playing two spots on the blackjack table. Just another way of getting more money in play. Doesn't change the outcome of either play. The edge is still the same.

I like having at least one come bet. That way, you are more likely to win than lose on a given roll of the dice (unless you have established the 4 & 10 where you have an equally likely chance of winning or losing on a given roll.) If I do have the 4 & 10, I'll likely put another come bet out.

However, if a shooter is going to keep throwing the same number over and over, I'd rather be pressing my place bet than going off and on repeatedly with a come bet.

I guess it all comes down to personal preference.

Quote: unJon

Zero. Like all negative EV games. Unless you mean something else by “ideal.”

Well I was hoping someone, somewhere ran a zillion simulation on 1-5 established come-bets. The real reason why the three point molly is looked up to.

Quote: odiousgambit

Ideal degree of Variance? It has to be the case that the more Come bets, the greater the Variance, which can be felt viscerally too: only a line bet equals boredom. I can honestly say I've never seen anyone just make one line bet per shooter persistently unless they are newbies, almost broke, or making huge bets beyond the minimum - or something to explain it. Meanwhile keeping a Come bet going, no matter what, feels in the gut wild as hell.

So how many numbers to have up has to be pretty much an individual choice thing?



Glad to hear it! And we should do that again!
PS: We were using the very clever TeddyS Method* too as I remember. Lots of fun.

*top secret

I’m just spit balling but if variance is defined to be a function of amount at risk, multiple come bets with odds should decrease variance (relative to amount on table), versus just a PL bet. Since the come bets are correlated to one another (all losing on the 7 after traveling).

But maybe I’m thinking about it wrong.

Quote: FleaStiff

We all do.

Play on a table with the All / Tall / Small bet. Not my thing, but the comeout 7 is no longer welcomed by all right bettors.

I put a single come bet out immediately, just because I despise the point-seven-out. If the come hits, I place that number and put out another come.

A Come bet is like a movie subplot. It supports and enhances the main story. It might resolve before the main story; it might resolve when the film ends, or you might have to stick around a watch the sequel to find out what happens.

Winning the All/Small/Tall bet is like joining the mile high club; it's a lot funner to boast about it later than it is to actually achieve it.

Variance is a funny concept to talk about, even though there's not too much difference between that word and 'variation', which is easy to get.

Sometimes when I think I understand it, I ponder some other situation and am not so sure. I think it may be true that the same amount of money put on the table in multiple Come bets as what might be lumped into one line bet is a case of lower variance in the former as opposed to the latter. Yet the concept of increased Variance with 'just betting more money' is odd in itself, as it offers 'variation' in outcome without changing variation in the distribution of results - this last being what is expected to be possible by a few dice rolls as opposed to a large number of dice rolls, say.