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crapstossaway
crapstossaway
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October 8th, 2018 at 7:41:17 PM permalink
How do you calculate a risk of ruin for a stop-win limit of a given bankroll when odds are taken? How does the risk of ruin change with no odds, 1x odds, 2x odds etc?

I know the EV doesn't change with odds bets and more odds increases bankroll variance, but how do the odds bets change the risk of ruin probability?
RS
RS
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October 8th, 2018 at 7:53:12 PM permalink
Odds increases risk of ruin.


One way to determine what that figure is, is to run a simulation. You could also work out a markov chain.

Edit: Misinterpreted OPís question.

Edit 2: It might increase ROR or might decrease. Depends on the variables.
Last edited by: RS on Oct 8, 2018
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mustangsally
mustangsally
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crapstossaway
October 8th, 2018 at 8:04:18 PM permalink
Quote: crapstossaway

How do you calculate a risk of ruin for a stop-win limit of a given bankroll when odds are taken? How does the risk of ruin change with no odds, 1x odds, 2x odds etc?

my experience I like to use a transition matrix and run a simulation, taking odds increases the chance of hitting a win target/target goal/stop-win limit for both the pass and don't pass.

that has to lower the chance of ruin compared to no odds, most times, depending on the wagers and targets, of course (comparing about the same average bet)

and taking odds lowers the number of trials to target or ruin.
I have lots of data on this.

if u give me an example bankroll, target, max number of bets if required, I can show some data.

Sally
added: you can see some data in my blog here
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/mustangsally/blog/#post1094

without an equal average bet, of course risk of ruin increases.
but a $5 pass and no odds vs. $5 pass with $50 odds over an hour of play
is not even close to being a fair comparison, if that matters, and it should.
Last edited by: mustangsally on Oct 9, 2018
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crapstossaway
crapstossaway
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October 8th, 2018 at 8:51:19 PM permalink
This is what I was hoping to see! You confirmed my suspicion that the increased odds decreases number of trials, which results in less of the bankroll subject to the house edge. Perhaps I should now open up to my specific playing goals and allow the forum to weigh in on the optimal odds.

I like to play about 30 minutes to an hour once a week with a $200 buy in. $5 minimum pass line and 2 come bets with odds working on come out rolls. I'm not looking to make significant money, but I enjoy playing and hope to make maybe $25 and see it as a win even if I just break even.I don't see it as a grind and the thrill for me is to try and get lucky. I do however wish to structure my odds bets, stop limits and time per session in such a way that I reduce to a minimum my risk of ruin on the bankroll, willing to lose it all in a 1 hour session.

I haven't been able to deduce the optimal amount of odds (up to 20x) to minimize my risk of ruin or structure a betting system with fluctuating odds as my bankroll changes in relation to my $25 goal. I'm open to suggestions and changes to my stop win limit and odds to minimize risk of ruin on $200 bankroll.
Ace2
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FleaStiff
October 9th, 2018 at 12:44:28 AM permalink
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FleaStiff
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October 9th, 2018 at 1:10:58 AM permalink
Sally, I had difficulty with the link.
five dollar pass line is difficult to find.
10x odds is easy to find but emotionally and financially difficult to sustain, particularly for a full hour.

what is difference at ten dollar pass line bet versus ten dollar pass bet with 2x odds?
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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October 9th, 2018 at 1:16:43 AM permalink
The odds bet is subject to the house edge as well as the contract bet.
RonC
RonC
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October 9th, 2018 at 6:09:36 AM permalink
I get the stop-loss points, but why have a stop-win point?

I just don't see a point where I should stop playing as long as the chips in the rack are increasing and I am in control of my play. For example, If I start off with $400, I am out when I am felted. If I get above $400 by a couple hundred dollars, then it is time to leave even or better. If things keep going well, the number to leave at goes up as the chips are accumulated.

I am playing a negative expectation game; when it runs positive for me for those few minutes or hours...I am trying to make a few dollars...
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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October 9th, 2018 at 6:30:47 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

I get the stop-loss points, but why have a stop-win point?


Because if you don't stop when you are winning you won't stop when you are losing, you will play catch-up all the way down to your starting bankroll and you will keep going after that into negative territory.
RonC
RonC
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October 9th, 2018 at 6:53:13 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Because if you don't stop when you are winning you won't stop when you are losing, you will play catch-up all the way down to your starting bankroll and you will keep going after that into negative territory.



I have an automatic stop-loss when I am losing...the felt. I also have a daily budget that I do not exceed. Once I am up >$100 in a "session", my stop-loss moves up accordingly. Since I don't play back down to the felt and the stop-loss moves up as I win, I don't go back into negative territory. I guess as a casual gambler I see it differently than others...

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