rgn1980
rgn1980
Joined: Jul 1, 2012
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 15
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:56:10 PM permalink
Curious to know the win of $500 v ruin % with a $3k buy in on:

DP $5 min, 10x odds
DP $10 min, 5x odds
DP $10 min, 10x odds

Up to 5 hours at table. I'm a failure at programming WinCraps. Thaaaaanks!
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:21:54 PM permalink
Quote: rgn1980

Up to 5 hours at table.

up to 5 hours could be only 5 bets made (lots of drinking) to maybe 150 bets made or more, depending on average of course
you did not give your opinion as what to expect.
I wonder why?

so I give some calculated data from my Markov chain solution
for either hitting the target or complete ruin
no # of bets taken into account
that could be done later
(I do not have the R code completed for this)

now, since most of the $$$ bet is on the Odds bet
one should be close to 3000/3500 = about 85.71% success in hitting the 3500 target

results:

>
> bankroll_target <- 700 # Enter bankroll target (in units)
> bankroll_start <- 600#(bankroll_target/2)
> # Enter a different starting bankroll, default is 50% of target
> print(data)
data
bank 600.0000000<<<<< this is for $5DP and 10x lay odds always
p(target) 0.8466808
p(ruin) 0.1533192
avg trials 524.9959899
> bankroll_target
[1] 700
> bankGainUnit
[1] 100
>
>
> require(expm)
> # Gambler's Ruin - mean time in transient states
> # and probabilities to target goal and ruin
>
> bankroll_target <- 350 # Enter bankroll target (in units)
> bankroll_start <- 300#(bankroll_target/2)
> # Enter a different starting bankroll, default is 50% of target
>
> print(data)
data
bank 300.0000000 <<<<< this is for $10DP and 10x lay odds always
p(target) 0.8515764
p(ruin) 0.1484236
avg trials 130.7606023
> bankroll_target
[1] 350
> bankGainUnit
[1] 50
>
>
> require(expm)
> # Gambler's Ruin - mean time in transient states
> # and probabilities to target goal and ruin
>
> bankroll_target <- 350 # Enter bankroll target (in units)
> bankroll_start <- 300#(bankroll_target/2)
> colnames(data) <- list("data ")
> print(data)
data <<<<< this is for $10 DP and 345x lay odds (Not 5x as you asked)
bank 300.0000000
p(target) 0.8315762
p(ruin) 0.1684238
avg trials 651.9948001
> bankroll_target
[1] 350
> bankGainUnit
[1] 50
>
>
>
so basically
the same chance to it the target.
just the length of time (number of bets) is way different)

of course, just one session, anything could happen ,
especially with points winning and the table being HOT
and right way players laughing at the dark side players.


Sally

added simulation data for 150 bets completed
DP $5 min, 10x odds

Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
Session Bankroll . . . = 600.00
Win goal to quit session= 100.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 150
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 54321
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 114.86
Avg. No. games won . . = 56.63
Avg. No. games lost . . = 58.23
Avg. No. games tied . . = 3.28
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 398.82
Avg. Total amount bet . = 114.86
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 1181.46
Bankroll was busted . . = 0.000% of the time ( 4)
Win goal was met . . . = 42.976% of the time ( 429756)
Bankroll decreased . . = 44.302% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 55.490% of the time

DP $10 min, 10x odds
Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
Session Bankroll . . . = 300.00
Win goal to quit session= 50.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 150
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 54321
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 75.58
Avg. No. games won . . = 37.27
Avg. No. games lost . . = 38.32
Avg. No. games tied . . = 2.16
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 262.44
Avg. Total amount bet . = 75.58
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 771.33
Bankroll was busted . . = 1.361% of the time ( 13607)
Win goal was met . . . = 68.106% of the time ( 681060)
Bankroll decreased . . = 29.366% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 70.547% of the time

DP $10 min, 5x odds
Simulation of Craps Don't Pass Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 5
Session Bankroll . . . = 300.00
Win goal to quit session= 50.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 150
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 54321
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 111.01
Avg. No. games won . . = 54.73
Avg. No. games lost . . = 56.28
Avg. No. games tied . . = 3.17
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 385.45
Avg. Total amount bet . = 111.01
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 570.92
Bankroll was busted . . = 0.003% of the time ( 30)
Win goal was met . . . = 45.803% of the time ( 458029)
Bankroll decreased . . = 43.450% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 56.369% of the time


added simulation data for 150 bets completed
for Pass line bet (to compare)
Pass $5 min, 10x odds

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
Session Bankroll . . . = 600.00
Win goal to quit session= 100.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 150
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 54321
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 115.34
Avg. No. games won . . = 56.85
Avg. No. games lost . . = 58.49
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 389.37
Avg. Total amount bet . = 115.34
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 768.99
Bankroll was busted . . = 0.000% of the time ( 0)
Win goal was met . . . = 42.020% of the time ( 420205)
Bankroll decreased . . = 45.252% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 54.533% of the time

Pass $10 min, 10x odds

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 10
Session Bankroll . . . = 300.00
Win goal to quit session= 50.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 150
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 54321
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 77.31
Avg. No. games won . . = 38.10
Avg. No. games lost . . = 39.21
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 260.99
Avg. Total amount bet . = 77.31
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 513.20
Bankroll was busted . . = 1.275% of the time ( 12753)
Win goal was met . . . = 66.814% of the time ( 668138)
Bankroll decreased . . = 30.695% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 69.213% of the time

Pass $10 min, 5x odds

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 5
Session Bankroll . . . = 300.00
Win goal to quit session= 50.00
Max. Decisions to quit = 150
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Starting Random seed . = 54321
------------------------------------
All bets are a single unit
------------------------------------
Simulation Results per Session
------------------------------------
Avg. No. games played . = 111.61
Avg. No. games won . . = 55.01
Avg. No. games lost . . = 56.60
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 376.79
Avg. Total amount bet . = 111.61
Avg. amount bet on Odds = 372.06
Bankroll was busted . . = 0.001% of the time ( 14)
Win goal was met . . . = 44.778% of the time ( 447784)
Bankroll decreased . . = 44.375% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 55.441% of the time

Last edited by: mustangsally on Sep 3, 2018
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Steen
Steen
Joined: Apr 7, 2014
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 121
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:21:53 AM permalink
Quote: rgn1980

Curious to know the win of $500 v ruin % with a $3k buy in on:

DP $5 min, 10x odds
DP $10 min, 5x odds
DP $10 min, 10x odds

Up to 5 hours at table. I'm a failure at programming WinCraps. Thaaaaanks!


Programming isn't everyone's cup of tea, but in many instances (such as this) you can use scripts that are already created and tweak them to meet your specific needs. For example, here's a WinCraps script which meets the requirements of your first scenario:

-- $3000 buy-in per session
-- $5 Don't Pass
-- 10x odds (set on configuration screen)
-- Runs for 5 hrs, $500 win, or bust (whichever comes first)

The script is set to play 10,000 sessions but you can easily change it to a different number.


If initializing script Then
autolay full odds = true
' On Configuration screen:
' - set desired odds multiplier
' - uncheck "allow negative bankroll"
EndIf

If beginning new session Then
beginning bankroll = 3000
EndIf

If bankroll >= $3500 Or ' <--- $500 win
bankroll = 0 Or ' <----------- bust
simulated hours all players >= 5
Then
add 1 to cs1.sessions.completed :
start new session(preserve checkstacks)
EndIf

If cs1.sessions.completed = 10000 Then
Stop AutoRolling / HyperDrive
EndIf

If next roll is a comeout roll Then
bet $5 on DontPass
EndIf



I took the liberty of running this first scenario for 10,000 sessions. Here's a screen shot of the Sessions Log histogram for the net amount won/lost:



As you can see, the majority of sessions won (56.56%) even though the average session lost $18.66. There were no busts.

By clicking on the histogram you can move around some carets to discover some more information'

45.88% of sessions hit or exceeded the $500 win goal
54.12% of sessions stopped short of winning $500 or busting due to the 5 hr limit

The average winning session won $458
The average losing session lost $642

You can copy and paste this script into WinCraps and then change the bet size, win goal, number of sessions, and odds allowed to find answers to your other questions.

Steen

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