homany
homany
Joined: Apr 19, 2018
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May 4th, 2018 at 11:02:55 AM permalink
hey guys,
first post here. i have been thinking about this situation but i cannot come up with a certain answer because my math is not good enough.
consider a 3 dice set automatic sic bo game which 2 of the dice is getting used for a simultaneous automatic craps game. the Sic bo's payouts are very good (Australian style) and in one case even better: 1 to 12 for doubles. my question is, can this situation be used to hedge craps bets like DP bet in come out roll or hedge 7 in Iron cross system? in general, mathematically speaking, can we benefit from this situation playing craps? i know that hedging by hard ways is a bad idea but what about hedging by a bet with a house edge as low 2.78% (domino bets in Sic bo)?

thank you in advance :)
TigerWu
TigerWu
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May 4th, 2018 at 11:12:55 AM permalink
I'm not really a math guy, either, but a 2.78% edge for a hedge bet doesn't sound very good....
homany
homany
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May 4th, 2018 at 11:17:47 AM permalink
yeah compare to line bets which carry 1.4 percent it sounds kind of high but compare to proposition bets or hard way bets with 2 digits percent house edges it sounds a pretty descent bet. roulette has the same house edge.
darkoz
darkoz
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May 4th, 2018 at 3:18:38 PM permalink
I examined every possibility with these machines in terms of hedging and there is no value that I was able to determine
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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May 5th, 2018 at 2:59:57 AM permalink
one negative expectation bet can do nothing beneficial to another in terms of house advantage; this you can be sure of as an ironclad rule, without any math

the effect of hedging is to reduce variance, unfortunately to use it you have to bet more so this increases the expected value of your losses. There also are often better ways to reduce variance if that is what you want. Be aware that lower variance is something desirable mostly for the side with the advantage.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
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May 5th, 2018 at 7:08:35 AM permalink
Quote: homany

... consider a 3 dice set automatic sic bo game which 2 of the dice is getting used for a simultaneous automatic craps game...



When I've played this type of contraption, I have to choose whether I am playing Sic Bo or Craps. Not sure how you play both at one time. Partner at a second seat? You try to play two positions all by yourself? How do you engineer your bets so you can hedge as you describe?
darkoz
darkoz
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May 5th, 2018 at 8:41:25 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

When I've played this type of contraption, I have to choose whether I am playing Sic Bo or Craps. Not sure how you play both at one time. Partner at a second seat? You try to play two positions all by yourself? How do you engineer your bets so you can hedge as you describe?



Yes a second seat is easily viable

You dont even need a physical partner. Playing two machines doesnt look suspicious here because they are different games. Youre just a gambler who likes to play both Craps and Sic Bo at the same time

There are some betting combinations that will cancel each other out. Some that will make a win exponentially better.

However those are offset by those same combinations resulting in losing outcomes that are more devastating so the -ev is the expected result
darkoz
darkoz
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May 5th, 2018 at 9:07:15 AM permalink
There are many ways you can do it. Again wont beat the house edge in the long run

Here is one way:

Bet $10 on each double dice combo in Sic Bo in coordination with a $60 passline bet. Two 2's, two 3's etc. Thats $60 wagered on SicBo and $60 on Craps

If the roll results in 2 or 12 you lose the paasline but win $70 on SicBo (5 out of six SicBo bets lose so -$50 but the double 2's or double 12's one wins $120). Subtract the $60 you lost in craps for a $10 profit

If the roll is 7 or 11 win $60 in Craps. 2/3 chance that simply offsets $60 lost at sicbo (7 or 11 results in non-matching die) but the 3rd die could match one the two Craps die. 2/3 chance of a push and 1/3 chance of $130 win

Rolling 3 craps is 2/3 chance of $120 loss but if the 3rd die matches the Craps die then its a push

Rolling 5 or 9 is 2/3 chance of $60 loss in sicbo with the number placed (presumably you would take free odds here)

Rolling 4,6,8,10 has a slightly better chance since hardways means you automatically win the sicbo bet while getting your number placed

Above is just one example. There are others it looks exciting but no player edge from playing both simultaneously
homany
homany
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May 5th, 2018 at 4:49:53 PM permalink
many thanks for your answers. your recommended approach seems really exciting. i always choose to play craps and i am looking for a way to benefit from the sic bo which is happening simultaneously. my desirable goal would be hedging Field bets or hedging Iron cross strategy against 7 being rolled. since the sic bo bets i mentioned carry around 3% house edge it would be reasonable to use them for hedging field bets or placing or buying 4, 10, 5 or 9 in craps. Or maybe hedging a don't come bet instead of using the hard ways which are terrible bets. i am very new in this. not sure i am thinking in a correct way.
Last edited by: homany on May 5, 2018
homany
homany
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May 5th, 2018 at 5:00:56 PM permalink
I always play craps. It is really easy to choose 2 or even more games to play at the same time. You can switch between the game by a single click. There is a 30 seconds time gap between the rolls.

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