homany
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May 4th, 2018 at 11:02:55 AM permalink
hey guys,
first post here. i have been thinking about this situation but i cannot come up with a certain answer because my math is not good enough.
consider a 3 dice set automatic sic bo game which 2 of the dice is getting used for a simultaneous automatic craps game. the Sic bo's payouts are very good (Australian style) and in one case even better: 1 to 12 for doubles. my question is, can this situation be used to hedge craps bets like DP bet in come out roll or hedge 7 in Iron cross system? in general, mathematically speaking, can we benefit from this situation playing craps? i know that hedging by hard ways is a bad idea but what about hedging by a bet with a house edge as low 2.78% (domino bets in Sic bo)?

thank you in advance :)
TigerWu
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May 4th, 2018 at 11:12:55 AM permalink
I'm not really a math guy, either, but a 2.78% edge for a hedge bet doesn't sound very good....
homany
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May 4th, 2018 at 11:17:47 AM permalink
yeah compare to line bets which carry 1.4 percent it sounds kind of high but compare to proposition bets or hard way bets with 2 digits percent house edges it sounds a pretty descent bet. roulette has the same house edge.
darkoz
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May 4th, 2018 at 3:18:38 PM permalink
I examined every possibility with these machines in terms of hedging and there is no value that I was able to determine
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
odiousgambit
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May 5th, 2018 at 2:59:57 AM permalink
one negative expectation bet can do nothing beneficial to another in terms of house advantage; this you can be sure of as an ironclad rule, without any math

the effect of hedging is to reduce variance, unfortunately to use it you have to bet more so this increases the expected value of your losses. There also are often better ways to reduce variance if that is what you want. Be aware that lower variance is something desirable mostly for the side with the advantage.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
LuckyPhow
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May 5th, 2018 at 7:08:35 AM permalink
Quote: homany

... consider a 3 dice set automatic sic bo game which 2 of the dice is getting used for a simultaneous automatic craps game...



When I've played this type of contraption, I have to choose whether I am playing Sic Bo or Craps. Not sure how you play both at one time. Partner at a second seat? You try to play two positions all by yourself? How do you engineer your bets so you can hedge as you describe?
darkoz
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May 5th, 2018 at 8:41:25 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

When I've played this type of contraption, I have to choose whether I am playing Sic Bo or Craps. Not sure how you play both at one time. Partner at a second seat? You try to play two positions all by yourself? How do you engineer your bets so you can hedge as you describe?



Yes a second seat is easily viable

You dont even need a physical partner. Playing two machines doesnt look suspicious here because they are different games. Youre just a gambler who likes to play both Craps and Sic Bo at the same time

There are some betting combinations that will cancel each other out. Some that will make a win exponentially better.

However those are offset by those same combinations resulting in losing outcomes that are more devastating so the -ev is the expected result
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
darkoz
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May 5th, 2018 at 9:07:15 AM permalink
There are many ways you can do it. Again wont beat the house edge in the long run

Here is one way:

Bet $10 on each double dice combo in Sic Bo in coordination with a $60 passline bet. Two 2's, two 3's etc. Thats $60 wagered on SicBo and $60 on Craps

If the roll results in 2 or 12 you lose the paasline but win $70 on SicBo (5 out of six SicBo bets lose so -$50 but the double 2's or double 12's one wins $120). Subtract the $60 you lost in craps for a $10 profit

If the roll is 7 or 11 win $60 in Craps. 2/3 chance that simply offsets $60 lost at sicbo (7 or 11 results in non-matching die) but the 3rd die could match one the two Craps die. 2/3 chance of a push and 1/3 chance of $130 win

Rolling 3 craps is 2/3 chance of $120 loss but if the 3rd die matches the Craps die then its a push

Rolling 5 or 9 is 2/3 chance of $60 loss in sicbo with the number placed (presumably you would take free odds here)

Rolling 4,6,8,10 has a slightly better chance since hardways means you automatically win the sicbo bet while getting your number placed

Above is just one example. There are others it looks exciting but no player edge from playing both simultaneously
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
homany
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May 5th, 2018 at 4:49:53 PM permalink
many thanks for your answers. your recommended approach seems really exciting. i always choose to play craps and i am looking for a way to benefit from the sic bo which is happening simultaneously. my desirable goal would be hedging Field bets or hedging Iron cross strategy against 7 being rolled. since the sic bo bets i mentioned carry around 3% house edge it would be reasonable to use them for hedging field bets or placing or buying 4, 10, 5 or 9 in craps. Or maybe hedging a don't come bet instead of using the hard ways which are terrible bets. i am very new in this. not sure i am thinking in a correct way.
Last edited by: homany on May 5, 2018
homany
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May 5th, 2018 at 5:00:56 PM permalink
I always play craps. It is really easy to choose 2 or even more games to play at the same time. You can switch between the game by a single click. There is a 30 seconds time gap between the rolls.
ontariodealer
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May 5th, 2018 at 5:53:32 PM permalink
ill make it easy for you......thou shall never hedge.
get second you pig
homany
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May 5th, 2018 at 6:16:49 PM permalink
Thanks. Waiting...
gamerfreak
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May 5th, 2018 at 9:40:56 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

ill make it easy for you......thou shall never hedge.


On one game for sure.

But I could see how hedging bets between two different games that are determined by the same roll of the dice could have some possibilities.

I don’t think that’s the case here. But my point is that this situation is potentially quite a bit different than standard hedging on roulette or craps.
odiousgambit
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May 6th, 2018 at 2:59:58 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

On one game for sure.

But I could see how hedging bets between two different games that are determined by the same roll of the dice could have some possibilities.

I don’t think that’s the case here. But my point is that this situation is potentially quite a bit different than standard hedging on roulette or craps.

It doesn't matter a hoot. You are combining bets that all have a house edge. The EV on each bet is undefeatable and Total EV = EV on each added into one sum.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
darkoz
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May 6th, 2018 at 5:09:48 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

It doesn't matter a hoot. You are combining bets that all have a house edge. The EV on each bet is undefeatable and Total EV = EV on each added into one sum.



If only the rules of English applied to Math and two negatives made a positive :)
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
gamerfreak
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May 6th, 2018 at 7:04:26 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

It doesn't matter a hoot. You are combining bets that all have a house edge. The EV on each bet is undefeatable and Total EV = EV on each added into one sum.


That's not what I am saying.

Hedging bets between two games with completely different rules, but are determined by the same exact dice roll, is a unique situation that is fundamentally different than hedging on the same game (like a Doey-Dont on craps).

I am not claiming it is +EV for this craps/sicbo love-child, but I guarantee I could create hypothetical where that was the case.

Quote: darkoz

If only the rules of English applied to Math and two negatives made a positive :)


That's a great quote for the back cover of your AP book.
homany
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May 6th, 2018 at 7:10:11 AM permalink
I am encouragingly looking forward to hear about your hypothetical beneficial recommendation on the case I described.
darkoz
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May 6th, 2018 at 7:39:36 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

That's not what I am saying.

Hedging bets between two games with completely different rules, but are determined by the same exact dice roll, is a unique situation that is fundamentally different than hedging on the same game (like a Doey-Dont on craps).

I am not claiming it is +EV for this craps/sicbo love-child, but I guarantee I could create hypothetical where that was the case.


That's a great quote for the back cover of your AP book.



I think the same mechanisms at work between two -ev games will always be in play

Take the Craps/Sicbo combinations. The median number in BOTH is 7 on two die

Seeing that in Craps is easy so lets just look at Sicbo

With a 7 rolled on the two Craps die there are only 6 possible outcomes in Sicbo:

7 + 1 = 8 = small
7 + 2 = 9 = small
7 + 3 = 10 = small
7 + 4 = 11 = large
7 + 5 = 12 = large
7 + 6 = 13 = large

Note that those outcomes split evenly between winning either the small or large bets in Sicbo. (A 6 or 8 on the Craps die results in winning 4-2 or 2-4 of the corresponding small/large sicbo bets

I.E. Both Sicbo and Craps revolve around similar principles to make them negative expectation and since they share that the combination of bets will not make a positive

My point is any combination of -ev games you create will most likely have the same drawback and will most likely have the same underlying mechanism for creating the negative expectation
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
odiousgambit
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May 6th, 2018 at 9:47:04 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

I guarantee I could create hypothetical where that was the case.



Give it a whirl, maybe I can learn something. 'Cuz I don't think you can.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
homany
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May 7th, 2018 at 8:53:27 AM permalink
I just came up with this idea. Most probably it is not a good strategy but i cannot find the flaw. So far, it seems like a good plan. Please prove me wrong.
Let's say we wanna have a 8$ don't pass bet to protect our bets playing iron crapper or iron cross strategy. To overcome the pitfall of come out roll, i have this arrangement in mind for the come out roll: beside 8$ on dc, laying 32$ on 10, betting 5$ on hard 10 and betting 2$ on 6+4 in sic bo. If 7 rolls we break even, if hard 10 rolls we earn 1$ plus a free point. I don't consider 11 and the extra 2$ loss by rolling it because in the long term 2 and 3 will cancel it out. If any other number rolls we take down lay and hard ways bet resulting 2$ loss which can be easily made up by the next 2 rolls. The only bummer is rolling easy 10 in come out roll which has 1/18 odds or 5.5%. In this case we lose 32$ but we win 12$ resulting a 20$ loss plus a point. All of my assumptions are based on that easy 10 not being hit in sic bo at come out roll in craps. It might hit with any point (exept 4) or even 11 or 2/3 of 7's which means an extra 12$ win. Please enlighten me on this.
PS: we might leave the DC bet after the come out roll waiting for 7 out. Specially when 6 or 8 are not the points.
Last edited by: homany on May 7, 2018
odiousgambit
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May 7th, 2018 at 12:03:21 PM permalink
you have to do weighted probability. You can't learn anything by looking at bet combinations and pondering "if this happens I lose this amount which is counterbalanced by this other event" ... yet not factor probabilities

and i will say one more time that you need do no math at all - it is an ironclad rule that combining bets with negative expectation cannot result in overall positive expectation. Give it up.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
beachbumbabs
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May 7th, 2018 at 12:13:36 PM permalink
Quote: homany

I just came up with this idea. Most probably it is not a good strategy but i cannot find the flaw. So far, it seems like a good plan. Please prove me wrong.
Let's say we wanna have a 8$ don't pass bet to protect our bets playing iron crapper or iron cross strategy. To overcome the pitfall of come out roll, i have this arrangement in mind for the come out roll: beside 8$ on dc, laying 32$ on 10, betting 5$ on hard 10 and betting 2$ on 6+4 in sic bo. If 7 rolls we break even, if hard 10 rolls we earn 1$ plus a free point. I don't consider 11 and the extra 2$ loss by rolling it because in the long term 2 and 3 will cancel it out. If any other number rolls we take down lay and hard ways bet resulting 2$ loss which can be easily made up by the next 2 rolls. The only bummer is rolling easy 10 in come out roll which has 1/18 odds or 5.5%. In this case we lose 32$ but we win 12$ resulting a 20$ loss plus a point. All of my assumptions are based on that easy 10 not being hit in sic bo at come out roll in craps. It might hit with any point (exept 4) or even 11 or 2/3 of 7's which means an extra 12$ win. Please enlighten me on this.
PS: we might leave the DC bet after the come out roll waiting for 7 out. Specially when 6 or 8 are not the points.



I am no expert.

It seems to me you might consider a combination of DC on craps along with Big on sic bo and/or any double on 6. With Big, the HE is a relatively low 2.72% and it would cover both 11 and 12 with any other number except trips, since DC is bar 12, at 1:1. With Double 6, it probably depends what paytable, but again you have the 12 covered, and 16 ways to win. There are 8:1, 10:1, and 11:1 odds according to WoO, in live play, though it sounds like you're playing online, so could be anything.

Not sure what proportions you might bet these. But the odds have to help with the 12 when it comes. Then you just have to avoid the 7 on the come-out, and 1/2 of the 7's would pay on the Big anyway (3rd die of 4-5-6).
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
homany
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beachbumbabs
May 7th, 2018 at 3:24:50 PM permalink
i have already tried this approach but it fails in the long run.
TigerWu
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May 7th, 2018 at 4:07:03 PM permalink
I wish Sic Bo was still around in Vegas.

I've played it online and in home games with friends and I thought it was a pretty fun game.
homany
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May 7th, 2018 at 6:38:07 PM permalink
Is there any particular reason on removing it in Vegas? It usually has terrible bets with high house edges which means more mony for the casino. I don't understand.
Ibeatyouraces
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May 7th, 2018 at 6:43:02 PM permalink
Does Bellagio still have the combo table of Pai Gow Poker/ Sic-Bo?

Horseshoe Hammond has a SB table. It was never open though the last time I was there.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
homany
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Gialmere
January 14th, 2019 at 11:48:25 AM permalink
Big updates: the casino with the situation i described got to shut down sic bo part for about 2 months and after that priod, they managed to install a new bubble for sic bo dice so thay can separate these two games. Seems like a great potential of getting an edge lost here. I actually came up with a plan to use both games at the same time and i was doing good overally but i never thought they really separate these two games. They may read here or track my betting history; i have no idea.
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