troopscott
troopscott
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
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April 26th, 2018 at 7:30:12 PM permalink
I saw actual odds of making a make them all was roughly 190-1 wit payoffs of 175-1. With the low $1 bet with say a $700 bankroll you could cover a lot of rolls. Almost enough to say you could hit it twice if probabilities play out. Anyone ran a simulation on this with say a 2.5k bankroll?
$170 ($1 for 170 rolls)
$110 ($2 for 55 rolls) (225 rolls total)
$400 ($4 for 100 rolls) (325 rolls total)
Venthus
Venthus
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April 26th, 2018 at 8:44:56 PM permalink
How much time do you want to spend on this? According to WoO, average rolls until a 7-out is 8.525510 (though I think A/T/S loses on a 7-comeout?)... at a brisk 15sec per roll, you're spending 6 hours on your first 170. Chop off a sixth for the 7-comeouts, and you're still looking at five hours.

On top of that, you're still dealing with massive variance. And, if you're you're also playing the main game, and not just a 1-4 bet every come out, dealing with the requirement of an even larger bankroll.

Seems to me you'd be better off doing the same kind of thing on roulette, where the HE is smaller and resolutions faster.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 27th, 2018 at 3:33:15 AM permalink
Your examples don't suggest to me Martingaling. Do you mean that if you would lose a dollar, next time two dollars is bet, then four dollars, etc? If so you don't get 170 rolls for $170 etc.

You could 'hit it twice' if you get lucky, you wouldn't want 'the probabilities to play out'
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Nathan
Nathan
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April 27th, 2018 at 6:01:38 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Your examples don't suggest to me Martingaling. Do you mean that if you would lose a dollar, next time two dollars is bet, then four dollars, etc? If so you don't get 170 rolls for $170 etc.

You could 'hit it twice' if you get lucky, you wouldn't want 'the probabilities to play out'



That kind of reminds me of a Fresh Prince Of Bel-Air episode where Hillary says,"I bet on all of the horses running in the race." Will says"Hillary, one of the horses has to win!" Hillary says"That's the point!" I wondered if Hillary had a good point by playing all of the horses. I mean I myself play all 17 numbers in the Lucky Money game knowing I'll win something. Hillary would win sonething by playing all the horses." On a website someone thought along the lines of what I was thinking and said"Hillary is being smart by playing all of the horses." The reply was,"Not really. Will is saying only one horse will win meaning playing all the horses is a stupid idea. Let's say Hillary puts $50 on all 10 horses running. Lucky Runner wins the race, but since she bet on each horse she still loses more than she won. She would have been better off just picking only one horse and hope Lucky Runner was the one she picked."
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D $150 down the drain on Lottery tickets that lost! Holy crap! What the heck was I thinking? O.O
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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April 27th, 2018 at 6:07:41 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

That kind of reminds me of a Fresh Prince Of Bel-Air episode where Hillary says,"I bet on all of the horses running in the race." Will says"Hillary, one of the horses has to win!" Hillary says"That's the point!" I wondered if Hillary had a good point by playing all of the horses. I mean I myself play all 17 numbers in the Lucky Money game knowing I'll win something. Hillary would win sonething by playing all the horses.


It would be easier to just skip betting on the race, and just pay the book their vig for nothing.

Hedging bets is never a good idea, unless there is another component to your play that makes it +EV.
Nathan
Nathan
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April 27th, 2018 at 6:10:16 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

It would be easier to just skip betting on the race, and just pay the book their vig for nothing.

Hedging bets is never a good idea, unless there is another component to your play that makes it +EV.



I have edited my comment to add the other people's comments. ;)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D $150 down the drain on Lottery tickets that lost! Holy crap! What the heck was I thinking? O.O
Lucca3927
Lucca3927
Joined: Aug 5, 2017
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April 28th, 2018 at 4:28:20 PM permalink
Although I've seen this bet won twice (never by me-I'd never touch it) I've always been curious about how they calculate the odds. A simple factorial doesn't account for the same number being rolled more than once, which will almost always happen.

The best way to achieve victory on that bet is not to make it and don't think about using a double up system (or any system) with it.
"I should have bet black." - Winston Churchill .
mustangsally
mustangsally
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April 28th, 2018 at 10:05:09 PM permalink
Quote: Lucca3927

Although I've seen this bet won twice (never by me-I'd never touch it)

I have seen it twice too in Las Vegas. Shooter had $10 on it at Binions. I was too late to the party!
Quote: Lucca3927

I've always been curious about how they calculate the odds.

many ways actually. there are a few threads at WoV showing how.
some use a Markov chain, some list all the permutations and calculate from there, others use inclusion-exclusion
for both ways to calculate this (long way is all #s in a subset B4 the 7 or the short way a 7 B4 the subset of #s)
that using a computer is fast and simple. here from BruceZ
> ##################################################################
> # Probability of rolling a subset of numbers before a single number
> ##################################################################
> start_time <- Sys.time()
> options(scipen=999)
>
> numbers = c(2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,7) # Last must occur only after all others in any order
>
> in_36 = ifelse(numbers <= 7, numbers-1, 13-numbers) # Ways to make each number
> i = length(in_36)
> p = 0
> for (j in 1:(i-1)) { # Last number before j numbers
+ terms = combn(in_36[1:(i-1)],j) # Matrix w/combos of j numbers in C(i-1,j) columns
+ for (k in 1:ncol(terms)) { # Sum each column, compute and add probabilities
+ p = p + (-1)^(j+1) * in_36/(in_36 + sum(terms[1:j,k]))
+ }
+ }
> end_time <- Sys.time()
> time <- end_time - start_time
> time
Time difference of 0.1562321 secs
> p=1-p
> p
[1] 0.005257704
> a=1/p
> a # 1 in
[1] 190.1971
> a-1 # odds against
[1] 189.1971
> ##################################################################
> # Probability of rolling a subset of numbers before a single number
> ##################################################################
> start_time <- Sys.time()
> options(scipen=999)
>
> numbers = c(2,3,4,5,6,7) # Last must occur only after all others in any order
>
> in_36 = ifelse(numbers <= 7, numbers-1, 13-numbers) # Ways to make each number
> i = length(in_36)
> p = 0
> for (j in 1:(i-1)) { # Last number before j numbers
+ terms = combn(in_36[1:(i-1)],j) # Matrix w/combos of j numbers in C(i-1,j) columns
+ for (k in 1:ncol(terms)) { # Sum each column, compute and add probabilities
+ p = p + (-1)^(j+1) * in_36/(in_36 + sum(terms[1:j,k]))
+ }
+ }
> end_time <- Sys.time()
> time <- end_time - start_time
> time
Time difference of 0.1718872 secs
> p=1-p
> p
[1] 0.02635391
> a=1/p
> a # 1 in
[1] 37.94503
> a-1 # odds against
[1] 36.94503


The question also goes back to the 1960s and it was done then too.
Quote: Lucca3927

A simple factorial doesn't account for the same number being rolled more than once, which will almost always happen.

i agree
here sample 100 attempts with the rolls
> bonusCraps
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
[1,] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
[2,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[3,] 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 4 1 2 0
[4,] 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
[5,] 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 0 1 0 0
[6,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[7,] 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 1
[8,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[9,] 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 2 0 0
[10,] 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0
[11,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[12,] 0 0 0 4 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
[13,] 2 0 0 0 3 1 1 1 1 0 0
[14,] 0 0 2 2 4 1 2 1 4 0 0
[15,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
[16,] 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
[17,] 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
[18,] 0 2 2 4 6 1 6 2 1 1 1
[19,] 1 0 2 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 0
[20,] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
[21,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
[22,] 0 1 3 1 3 1 2 2 1 3 0
[23,] 0 1 1 1 5 1 3 0 0 1 1
[24,] 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
[25,] 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
[26,] 0 1 2 5 3 1 4 2 2 0 0
[27,] 2 2 1 1 4 1 3 1 0 0 0
[28,] 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 1 0 0
[29,] 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 1
[30,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[31,] 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[32,] 1 0 1 1 4 1 1 3 1 0 0
[33,] 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0
[34,] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
[35,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
[36,] 0 1 0 0 4 1 1 2 0 0 1
[37,] 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[38,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[39,] 0 0 1 3 2 1 2 1 0 1 0
[40,] 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0
[41,] 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[42,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[43,] 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 2 0 1 0
[44,] 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[45,] 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
[46,] 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0
[47,] 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1
[48,] 0 1 2 2 2 1 6 1 1 1 1
[49,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1
[50,] 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[51,] 0 0 1 1 2 1 3 0 0 1 1
[52,] 1 1 1 0 4 1 2 0 0 0 0
[53,] 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
[54,] 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0
[55,] 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 0
[56,] 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0
[57,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
[58,] 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[59,] 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[60,] 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 0
[61,] 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0
[62,] 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
[63,] 1 0 2 2 1 1 1 5 2 0 1
[64,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 0
[65,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
[66,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
[67,] 0 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 1
[68,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
[69,] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
[70,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
[71,] 0 2 0 1 1 1 3 2 1 0 0
[72,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
[73,] 0 1 2 1 7 1 0 2 1 2 1
[74,] 1 0 3 2 3 1 3 3 1 1 1
[75,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[76,] 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
[77,] 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0
[78,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[79,] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1
[80,] 0 0 1 0 2 1 3 3 0 1 0
[81,] 0 2 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
[82,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[83,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[84,] 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[85,] 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0
[86,] 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
[87,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[88,] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
[89,] 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
[90,] 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1
[91,] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1
[92,] 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0
[93,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[94,] 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0 0 1
[95,] 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[96,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
[97,] 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0
[98,] 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
[99,] 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
[100,] 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
>


Quote: Lucca3927

The best way to achieve victory on that bet is not to make it and don't think about using a double up system (or any system) with it.

that takes the fun away from playing it!
There is a casino 3 miles from my house that has it.
time for some fun!

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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April 29th, 2018 at 3:36:53 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally


that takes the fun away from playing it!
There is a casino 3 miles from my house that has it.
time for some fun!

Sally



The fun is best when you WIN.

You are lucky with that three miles.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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April 29th, 2018 at 4:11:31 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

The fun is best when you WIN.

You are lucky with that three miles.

I Agree. The FUN part is collecting the winnings.

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