Craps LAY BETS Strategy on come out roll

Craps LAY BETS Strategy on come out roll explained below.

There are six craps lay bets available. You can lay the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10.
Those are the same numbers that become points if the shooter rolls them on the come out, and the same numbers available to right bettors as place bets.

In each case, you win the bet if the shooter rolls a 7 before rolling your number, and you lose if the shooter rolls your number first. No numbers matter other than 7 and the number you lay.

Let’s say you lay the 6. That means you win only if the shooter rolls a 7 before the next 6. If the next few rolls are 11, 5, 9, 3 and so on, nothing happens to your bet. Those numbers don’t matter.

At any point, if a 7 turns up, you win, or if the roll is 6, you lose.

LAY BETS ODDS OF WINNING
There are 36 possible combinations of two six-sided dice in craps lay bets. Six of those combinations total 7, while 5 total 6, five total 8, four each total 5 and 9 and three each total 4 and 10.

That means you’ll win six times for every five times you lose if you lay 6 or 8, win six times per four losses on 5 or 9 and win six times per three losses on 4 or 10.

The odds in favor or your winning lay bets are 6-5 on 6 or 8, 3-2 on 5 or 9 or 2-1 on 4 or 10.

LAY BETS PAYOFFS AND COMMISSION
Because you win more often than you lose, the house charges a commission in order to gain an edge.

Payoffs are commensurate with true odds. If you bet $6 on 6 or 8, a winner will bring you $5. If you bet $3 on 5 or 9, a winner will bring you $2, and if you bet $2 on 4 or 10, a winner will bring you $1.

The commission amounts to 5 percent of the amount you would win if the shooter rolls a 7.

Let’s set our bet sizes all to amounts that would win $20 to make an easy comparison.

If you lay 6 or 8, you must wager $24 for a chance to win $20 – the 6-5 odds multiplied by four. Fiver percent of $20 is $1, so that’s the commission you must add to your wager, so your full bet is $25 for a chance to win $20.
If you lay 5 or 9, you must start with $30 for a chance to win $20, and the 1 percent commission brings your total risk to $31.
If you lay 4 or 10 you must start with $40 for a chance to win $20, and the 1 percent commission bring your total risk to $41.
Some casinos charge the commission only if your bet wins. That makes a difference in the house edge, as we’ll see below.

LAY BETS HOUSE EDGE
The best deal on lay bets is on 4 or 10, where the commission represents the smallest proportion of your bet.

Let’s start with casinos where you must pay the commission on all lay bets, win or lose.

If you lay 4 or 10, the house edge is 2.44 percent. In the long run, per $100 wagered, you would average $2.44 in losses
If you lay 5 or 9, the house edge is 3.23 percent.
If you lay 6 or 8, the house edge is 4 percent.
What if the house charges the commission only on winning bets? Then the house edge is reduced on all numbers.

On 4 or 10, commission on winners only, the house edge is 1.67 percent.
On 5 or 9, commission on winners only, the house edge is 2 percent.
On 6 or 8, commission on winners only, the house edge is 2.27 percent.

SOURCE

Quote: Laymedown

LAY BETS HOUSE EDGE

On 4 or 10, commission on winners only, the house edge is 1.67 percent.

but it can be lower and I have seen this and made these bets a lot.
Lay the 4 for $50 (sure you could Lay the 10)

you win $25
and 5% of $25 = $1.25 = vig
most will always pay $1 vig (I never seen it different)

so edge = 1 / 75 or a sweet 1.33%
better than the line bets and the place bets of 6 & 8

next
and there are others too

Sally

Buy bets are the flip side of Lay bets. Because the casino bankroll is essentially infinite, the guerrilla strategic imperative to minimize losses suggests taking the small end rather than laying the large end of the bet.

All four outside box numbers can be bought for a $2 commission when the bet size is $50.

You're right about the opposite of lay bets but problem is you need to roll all 6 numbers for you to get paid, but if you lay all the numbers you just need to roll the easiest number on the dice one time to get paid.

The best part is many of the shooters also hope to roll a seven on come out roll. I would never say it's a get rich quick kind of betting but it's pretty smart.

Quote: Laymedown

You're right about the opposite of lay bets but problem is you need to roll all 6 numbers for you to get paid, but if you lay all the numbers you just need to roll the easiest number on the dice one time to get paid.

This is true, and in exchange, the lay bets PAY LESS for the privilege of winning more often (and, consequently, all at once).

Quote:

The best part is many of the shooters also hope to roll a seven on come out roll. I would never say it's a get rich quick kind of betting but it's pretty smart.

The dice don't give a good god damn about the shooters hopes or dreams. They will roll according to the probabilities, and you are no more likely to win your lay bets on the come out than you are any other time. But hey, you get to celebrate with the rest of the table, and there is something to be said for that.

The best play is to lay it for $78 so they will round down and only charge you for a dollar. You should squeeze money out of every dollar you bet.

Lay what for 78?

Quote: Laymedown

Lay what for 78?

4 or 10

Im not a dont player typically, but every now and then if I dealers tell me the table is ice cold and I see people losing their as%$#, I will lay either the 4 or 10.. I typically like the 10 for some reason. I lay the 10 and play the dont pass. Those times Ive played that way have always worked out. They were hit n run of course.

WMW, you and your cousin LMD should plan a trip to Vegas at the same time, that way we can kill 2 ---- birds with one stone.

Quote: WatchMeWin

Im not a dont player typically, but every now and then if I dealers tell me the table is ice cold and I see people losing their as%$#, I will lay either the 4 or 10.. I typically like the 10 for some reason. I lay the 10 and play the dont pass. Those times Ive played that way have always worked out. They were hit n run of course.

Just reminded myself about a time I played over 10 years ago. I was losing badly (because I didn't hit n run back then)... everyone was making about 2 to 3 box numbers then 7 out every roll. So I was down to my last 50 bucks after losing about 8K quickly. So I played the no 10. It won over and over and over and over... etc. I kept power pressing the winnings. In no time , I had 3500. I left the table and went to BJ and put it all on one hand. I was dealt 6,5 against the dealer 6. Of course this all looked too perfect but I still asked a buddy with me to lend me what he had. He only had 1500 on him. He lent it to me and I doubled down. Dealer flips a 3 for me and I was sitting on 14. Dealer has the six, pulls over a 9, then and ace, then a 4 for total 20. I never played BJ again.

Since about half of 7-outs occur during 1st 4 rolls, maybe just lay bet for the first 4 rolls after the point is established then turn it off until after the next come-out roll. Maybe shooters are luckier with the 7's on the come-outs, but they are just as unlucky with their P7O's.
I'm working on a progression for the No 9 (or No 5): $75, $90, $105, $120, $120, $135, $150, $210, $270, $330, then down. So I'll get $1000+ on 10 wins in a row. I could also lose $1000+ if my number gets hit 14 times in a row. Maybe the dice like to hit my number right before a 7. Do I put a new bet up in time or not?

Quote: ChumpChange

Since about half of 7-outs occur during 1st 4 rolls,

this page
https://www.wizardofodds.com/games/craps/number-of-rolls/

shows that 49.72% is the chance for any shooter to make that 7th roll in their hand.
that means 50.28% (1266739/2519424)
is the chance they have 7nd-out by and including the 6th roll (includes the come out roll)

57.61% is the chance for any shooter to make that 6th roll in their hand.
that means 42.39% is the chance they have 7nd-out by and including the 5th roll (includes the come out roll)

my worksheet for the math for the length of a shooters hand can be
found here
https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/games/craps

I love making Lay bets
especially on the come out roll
fun to challenge every shooter to roll 'any 7'
does not matter which 7 (witch?)

Sally