ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
July 13th, 2017 at 6:05:39 AM permalink
Assumptions:

Game: Craps
Prop: Any 7
Payout: 4 to 1
Base House edge: 1/6
Bonus amount: \$300,000
Bonus condition: must win 'Any 7' bet, 7 times in a row
Bonus Additional Wager? there is no additional wager needed to qualify for the bonus (that is the bonus is counted as part of the main bet)

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if a craps game offered an 'Any 7' bonus for 7 consecutive wins (7 wins in a row) of \$300,000 for \$1 gambled, what would the player or house edge^^^ be?

edge^^^: please work out the edge per wager, keeping in mind that 16.66...% is the base house edge of the wager, not taking into account the value of the bonus.

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Hypothetical Example: (please amend/correct this example, whether I am 'close to correct' or not)

Say that I played 839,808 games in a row on the 'Any 7' prop, I would expect to lose \$139,968 on the 'normal' part of the game, and expect to win \$300,000 about 95.02% of the time (AT LEAST ONCE) for the bonus part of the game, for a net player edge in dollars of at least \$145,095, or a player edge per wager of at least 17.27...%^*^*

^*^*: someone with better maths understanding can work out a more accurate or true player edge, but my current understanding can not improve on this figure of '...at least 17.27%;.

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Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jul 13, 2017
odiousgambit
• Posts: 9689
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
July 13th, 2017 at 2:17:13 PM permalink
I'm sure an amount could be set that would make it +EV

It sounds like you are dreaming this up though. Is it really available somewhere? I would attempt the math if you said yes.

My math always needs to be checked, but I get the chances of hitting once in any given single trial at 0.0000035722450846 or one in 279,936

Quote:

839,808 games in a row on the 'Any 7' prop, I would expect to lose \$139,968 on the 'normal' part of the game, and expect to win \$300,000 about 95.02% of the time

do you mean "trials" ?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Romes
• Posts: 5607
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
July 13th, 2017 at 2:39:31 PM permalink
6/36 ways to make a 7... 1/6... What are the odds of getting "any 7" 7 times in a row? (1/6)^7 = .0000036, or about 1 in 280,000. So if they're going to pay 300,000-1, then technically it's a good bet.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
RS
• Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
Thanked by
July 13th, 2017 at 2:43:08 PM permalink
What happens if you win "any 7" 8 times in a row? Do you win \$300k twice?
Ibeatyouraces
• Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
Thanked by
July 13th, 2017 at 2:44:27 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

6/36 ways to make a 7... 1/6... What are the odds of getting "any 7" 7 times in a row? (1/6)^7 = .0000036, or about 1 in 280,000. So if they're going to pay 300,000-1, then technically it's a good bet.

Thus should be easy peasy for that guy that threw 18 yos in a row...
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
July 13th, 2017 at 3:10:22 PM permalink

just plugged the figures in at the beating bonuses simulator and it said the EV is about 90.5% in the players favour (seems too good to be true),

have to go to work now, but yes this is a real deal that is out there at the moment, though i don't know how long it will last,
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
July 13th, 2017 at 7:28:56 PM permalink
Quote: RS

What happens if you win "any 7" 8 times in a row? Do you win \$300k twice?

It resets after every '7 times in a row', so you have to win 2 lots of 7 consecutive times to win it twice.

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Update:

Also, the maximum payout of the bonus is capped at \$1 million per round, so the maximum you would bet in whole dollars is \$4.00***

\$4.00***: \$4.00 is worth about \$2.905 per hand and \$3.00 is worth about \$2.715 per hand in +EV(\$).
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
July 13th, 2017 at 7:41:53 PM permalink
Update,

What would a good bank-roll be, using the parameters below? ( please show the working so that I can try the formula(s) myself, as I am not very good at Standard deviation calculations)

parameters:

chance of getting 1 hit: 1/6
chance of getting 7 hits in a row: 1/6^7, or 1/279936
standard deviation: about 566.99 per hand (according to the beating bonuses simulator)
player edge: 90.5% (about +1.0716 for the bonus, and -0.1666666e ev for the base game)
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
July 13th, 2017 at 7:50:14 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I'm sure an amount could be set that would make it +EV

It sounds like you are dreaming this up though. Is it really available somewhere? I would attempt the math if you said yes.

My math always needs to be checked, but I get the chances of hitting once in any given single trial at 0.0000035722450846 or one in 279,936

do you mean "trials" ?

I guess it may have been better to say, "839,808 trials", but my understanding of that terminology is not very good.
Ace
• Posts: 43
Joined: Aug 15, 2013
July 13th, 2017 at 10:01:18 PM permalink
Even thought this is a fantasy bet with a huge combined player edge, I still calculated it since I'm bored. That edge is more like 87.2% not 90.5%. That's because the 16.7% house edge grinds the basic bet down between 1 and 7 times (not just once) while chasing the bonus payout.

I think the more realistic scenario would be for the casino to offer this as a matched side bet to the any seven bet. That way the house has its 16.7 % edge on the any seven (more like 20% assuming the bettor presses until losing side bet) and the player gets a 7.2 % edge on side bet, but it's still a net 9.5 % edge for the house.
Last edited by: Ace on Jul 13, 2017
odiousgambit
• Posts: 9689
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
July 14th, 2017 at 3:42:30 AM permalink
If not a side bet, the math is too much for me, since you presumably would have to figure out the average number of bets you'd make in a single trial, often only one bet.

Is this something offered by an online casino?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
January 14th, 2019 at 12:53:30 PM permalink
Quote: Ace

Even thought this is a fantasy bet with a huge combined player edge, I still calculated it since I'm bored. That edge is more like 87.2% not 90.5%. That's because the 16.7% house edge grinds the basic bet down between 1 and 7 times (not just once) while chasing the bonus payout.

I think the more realistic scenario would be for the casino to offer this as a matched side bet to the any seven bet. That way the house has its 16.7 % edge on the any seven (more like 20% assuming the bettor presses until losing side bet) and the player gets a 7.2 % edge on side bet, but it's still a net 9.5 % edge for the house.

Thanks for the post, and sorry for the very late reply

They are still offering the 'Any 7' bonus, but I haven't played it in a while (too impatient in waiting for the big win).

Below is a different craps bonus they have, it is for 'Any Craps':

. All six consecutive Any Craps bets must result in winners.

• Every single roll of the sequence must have an active wager on Any Craps.

• The lowest bet amount of the six consecutive Any Craps bets will be paid a \$50,000 bonus for every \$1 Any Craps bet placed.

• No more rolls can be played after the six qualifying rolls for the jackpot were completed.

For the example above, I think the value of the bonus is a reduction in house edge by 9.408...% and the main game has a house edge of 11.11...% (pays 7 to 1 for 'Any Craps').

I will give you a link of where to find this game if you PM me, that way can you tell me if I was right or not about the 'Any 7 bonus'.

Again, sorry for the late reply.
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
January 14th, 2019 at 1:00:10 PM permalink
Quote:

...Is this something offered by an online casino?

Thanks for the post.

Yes it is,I will send you the details by PM, if you want it.

Sorry for the very late reply.