Anything but 7 with Odds

I just wanted to throw out a strategy I've been using in Craps now, which is working rather well. I call it "Anything But 7 with Odds".

The goals of this strategy are:

Keep Risk Low
Optimize Survival
Reduce Overall Rolls to achieve a 100% return
Take Advantage of Odds (optional)

The highs are that you have a high probability to receive a 100% return by Roll #5 (including the come out). Roll 6 onward is optional but I'll outline the strategy in full.

Example Table: Min $10 with 5x Odds

On the come out roll there's no bet. Wait for the point to be set. If the point is not set on the very first roll, move to the odds section.

If the point is set on the first roll during come out, in this example I'll start with $100 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($25/$30/$30/$15) The example below shows what monetary return would occur on every roll starting with this bet. The avg return is $19.50 and the number of rolls it would take to achieve a maximum return is approximately 5.13 rolls.

For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (5/5/5/3).

DICE	RTN
2	30
3	15
4	15
5	20
6	20
7	-100
8	20
9	15
10	15
11	15
12	30
AVG R	19.5
ROLL R	5.13

On Roll #2, Roll #3, these bets do not change.

Starting on Roll #4, change the wager to: $61 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($15/$18/$18/$10). For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (3/3/3/2).

DICE	RTN
2	20
3	10
4	10
5	11
6	11
7	-61
8	11
9	10
10	10
11	10
12	20
AVG R	12.3
ROLL R	4.96

The avg return drops to $12.30 with a roll return of under 5. However, charting the first 5 rolls we get:

Roll	AVG R	Risk	Survival
1	$-	$-	1.000000
2	$20	$100	0.888889
3	$20	$100	0.772119
4	$12	$61	0.667353
5	$12	$61	0.576129
Total	$64	$61

Effectively, this brings the 6 roll minimum down to 5 rolls before achieving a 100% return (or 0% risk). The avg roll before 7-out per person is roughly 8.5 rolls, but our survival is over 57% at all times.

At this point, you have four options available:

1. Play on for another 3 rolls and take everything down if you survive.
2. Play on until 7-out, press/pull strategy.
3. Take down all bets and take the 100% profit to the next roller.
4. Take advantage of Odds.

I will outline how to take advantage of Odds.

Odds

This strategy should be played when one of the following events occurs:

* You are on roll #6 (using the strategy above).
You are on roll #3+ and the shooter did not set a point on the first roll of a come out roll.

Start by placing $10/$10 in the Come and Don't Come boxes. You only lose if a 12 is rolled. See the table below:

Roll of	Don't Come Strategy	Come Strategy	House Edge
4	Max Odds on DC	No Odds	0.83
5	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
6	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
8	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
9	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
10	Max Odds on DC	No Odds	0.83

On a 12 you lose the come bet and DC is a push (alternatively you could place a $1 bet on midnight), on 3,7,11 you lose or win nothing. On any other roll, both the DC and Come moves to the new point. Based on the table you then place Odds only. This moves the HE under 1%.

You can also attempt to take advantage of streaks by choosing to place Odds on the Come (if the current shooter has already hit a point) or just on the DC (if the current shooter has not yet hit a point). This part is up to you.

The second part to the strategy (if you start from the beginning) gives you a $50 dollar free wager with house money on a low house edge bet. How much risk appetite you have is up to you. Even if you lose the $50 bet, you should have finished with $10+ on the roller.

You also have the option to change Odds from the come to the DC and vice versa at any time.

Quote: JoelDeze

I just wanted to throw out a strategy I've been using in Craps

An excellent idea. I will consider it thrown out.

Craps strategies make my brain hurt.

Quote: JoelDeze

I just wanted to throw out a strategy I've been using in Craps now, which is working rather well. I call it "Anything But 7 with Odds".

The goals of this strategy are:

Keep Risk Low
Optimize Survival
Reduce Overall Rolls to achieve a 100% return
Take Advantage of Odds (optional)

The highs are that you have a high probability to receive a 100% return by Roll #5 (including the come out). Roll 6 onward is optional but I'll outline the strategy in full.

Example Table: Min $10 with 5x Odds

On the come out roll there's no bet. Wait for the point to be set. If the point is not set on the very first roll, move to the odds section.

If the point is set on the first roll during come out, in this example I'll start with $100 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($25/$30/$30/$15) The example below shows what monetary return would occur on every roll starting with this bet. The avg return is $19.50 and the number of rolls it would take to achieve a maximum return is approximately 5.13 rolls.

For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (5/5/5/3).

DICE	RTN
2	30
3	15
4	15
5	20
6	20
7	-100
8	20
9	15
10	15
11	15
12	30
AVG R	19.5
ROLL R	5.13

On Roll #2, Roll #3, these bets do not change.

Starting on Roll #4, change the wager to: $61 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($15/$18/$18/$10). For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (3/3/3/2).

DICE	RTN
2	20
3	10
4	10
5	11
6	11
7	-61
8	11
9	10
10	10
11	10
12	20
AVG R	12.3
ROLL R	4.96

The avg return drops to $12.30 with a roll return of under 5. However, charting the first 5 rolls we get:

Roll	AVG R	Risk	Survival
1	$-	$-	1.000000
2	$20	$100	0.888889
3	$20	$100	0.772119
4	$12	$61	0.667353
5	$12	$61	0.576129
Total	$64	$61

Effectively, this brings the 6 roll minimum down to 5 rolls before achieving a 100% return (or 0% risk). The avg roll before 7-out per person is roughly 8.5 rolls, but our survival is over 57% at all times.

At this point, you have four options available:

1. Play on for another 3 rolls and take everything down if you survive.
2. Play on until 7-out, press/pull strategy.
3. Take down all bets and take the 100% profit to the next roller.
4. Take advantage of Odds.

I will outline how to take advantage of Odds.

Odds

This strategy should be played when one of the following events occurs:

* You are on roll #6 (using the strategy above).
You are on roll #3+ and the shooter did not set a point on the first roll of a come out roll.

Start by placing $10/$10 in the Come and Don't Come boxes. You only lose if a 12 is rolled. See the table below:

Roll of	Don't Come Strategy	Come Strategy	House Edge
4	Max Odds on DC	No Odds	0.83
5	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
6	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
8	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
9	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
10	Max Odds on DC	No Odds	0.83

On a 12 you lose the come bet and DC is a push (alternatively you could place a $1 bet on midnight), on 3,7,11 you lose or win nothing. On any other roll, both the DC and Come moves to the new point. Based on the table you then place Odds only. This moves the HE under 1%.

You can also attempt to take advantage of streaks by choosing to place Odds on the Come (if the current shooter has already hit a point) or just on the DC (if the current shooter has not yet hit a point). This part is up to you.

The second part to the strategy (if you start from the beginning) gives you a $50 dollar free wager with house money on a low house edge bet. How much risk appetite you have is up to you. Even if you lose the $50 bet, you should have finished with $10+ on the roller.

You also have the option to change Odds from the come to the DC and vice versa at any time.

You put a lot of thought into this.. I wouldn't say it is a winning strategy however. Tell me where you find the 7 to come every 8.5 rolls... please! You are lucky if you get 3 numbers before the 7.

Quote: JoelDeze

I just wanted to throw out a strategy I've been using in Craps now, which is working rather well. I call it "Anything But 7 with Odds".

<snip>

The avg roll before 7-out per person is roughly 8.5 rolls, but our survival is over 57% at all times.

Thank you, Joel. for your bravery given the almost certain of attack by multiple mathaholics who proudly point out that hedged bets don't work as well as pass line + odds, notwithstanding your comment that the system works "rather well" based on your experience. And, thank you for all your effort creating the many tables to explain your system so completely. Much appreciated.

The system you describe in this post is far less aggressive than the Iron Cross strategy you shared earlier this month. I tried that system (at home) and -- as one might expect -- had some results up and some results down. As a tried-and-true Bottom-Feeder, I find the system in this post a bit more "comfortable." I think it makes sense to "regress" your bets after several rolls, as you do. Then, it's just a question of whether or not the 7-out comes home early, catching your hand in all the other candy jars.

Quote: JoelDeze

You can also attempt to take advantage of streaks

Hmmm... I don't suppose anyone ever suggested you thrive on risk. But, why not wave the red flag in front of bull when the point is a 4 or 10 by max odds on your DC bet? You fearlessly wave the red flag in front of the bet-systems-don't-work crowd. On a hot table, systems like yours sure pull in the money.

IMHO, discussions like yours are some of the things that makes craps the fun-happy-sad-brutal game it is. I hope you will continue to share your ideas about craps betting strategies and to report how the systems are working out for you.

Quote: FleaStiff

An excellent idea. I will consider it thrown out.

Okay, I have been taken to task for what some feel was a very rude rejection of the 'system' under discussion. Part of this is motivated by my infamous inability to deal with mathematics. I do realize that certain 'real world' strategies work very well against the 'math' from time to time. Every dealer has seen weird things happen. So have the players.

Its just Damon Runyon seems to be right most of the time...that's the way to bet.

Are you selling this system?

Quote: JoelDeze

I just wanted to throw out a strategy I've been using in Craps now, which is working rather well. I call it "Anything But 7 with Odds".

The goals of this strategy are:

Keep Risk Low
Optimize Survival
Reduce Overall Rolls to achieve a 100% return
Take Advantage of Odds (optional)

The highs are that you have a high probability to receive a 100% return by Roll #5 (including the come out). Roll 6 onward is optional but I'll outline the strategy in full.

Example Table: Min $10 with 5x Odds

On the come out roll there's no bet. Wait for the point to be set. If the point is not set on the very first roll, move to the odds section.

If the point is set on the first roll during come out, in this example I'll start with $100 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($25/$30/$30/$15) The example below shows what monetary return would occur on every roll starting with this bet. The avg return is $19.50 and the number of rolls it would take to achieve a maximum return is approximately 5.13 rolls.

For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (5/5/5/3).

DICE	RTN
2	30
3	15
4	15
5	20
6	20
7	-100
8	20
9	15
10	15
11	15
12	30
AVG R	19.5
ROLL R	5.13

On Roll #2, Roll #3, these bets do not change.

Starting on Roll #4, change the wager to: $61 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($15/$18/$18/$10). For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (3/3/3/2).

DICE	RTN
2	20
3	10
4	10
5	11
6	11
7	-61
8	11
9	10
10	10
11	10
12	20
AVG R	12.3
ROLL R	4.96

The avg return drops to $12.30 with a roll return of under 5. However, charting the first 5 rolls we get:

Roll	AVG R	Risk	Survival
1	$-	$-	1.000000
2	$20	$100	0.888889
3	$20	$100	0.772119
4	$12	$61	0.667353
5	$12	$61	0.576129
Total	$64	$61

Effectively, this brings the 6 roll minimum down to 5 rolls before achieving a 100% return (or 0% risk). The avg roll before 7-out per person is roughly 8.5 rolls, but our survival is over 57% at all times.

At this point, you have four options available:

1. Play on for another 3 rolls and take everything down if you survive.
2. Play on until 7-out, press/pull strategy.
3. Take down all bets and take the 100% profit to the next roller.
4. Take advantage of Odds.

I will outline how to take advantage of Odds.

Odds

This strategy should be played when one of the following events occurs:

* You are on roll #6 (using the strategy above).
You are on roll #3+ and the shooter did not set a point on the first roll of a come out roll.

Start by placing $10/$10 in the Come and Don't Come boxes. You only lose if a 12 is rolled. See the table below:

Roll of	Don't Come Strategy	Come Strategy	House Edge
4	Max Odds on DC	No Odds	0.83
5	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
6	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
8	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
9	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
10	Max Odds on DC	No Odds	0.83

On a 12 you lose the come bet and DC is a push (alternatively you could place a $1 bet on midnight), on 3,7,11 you lose or win nothing. On any other roll, both the DC and Come moves to the new point. Based on the table you then place Odds only. This moves the HE under 1%.

You can also attempt to take advantage of streaks by choosing to place Odds on the Come (if the current shooter has already hit a point) or just on the DC (if the current shooter has not yet hit a point). This part is up to you.

The second part to the strategy (if you start from the beginning) gives you a $50 dollar free wager with house money on a low house edge bet. How much risk appetite you have is up to you. Even if you lose the $50 bet, you should have finished with $10+ on the roller.

You also have the option to change Odds from the come to the DC and vice versa at any time.

I can only thank gooddness people like you don't spend so much time and effort on actual AP. Yes that's a compliment . Half assed compliment, but one all the same.

Have fun with your strategy.

I love to play with different strategies also (on <100% and >100% games).
They are a way of making your own custom game and redistributing probabilities and payouts.

Some people complain that they don't create a "winning" game out of a "losing" game,
however this is somewhat misguided. None of us plays infinitely long.

------
How can we win?
(1) We can get lucky.

Win enough money to (a) quit a winner (b) invest the money somewhere else, where interest pays for more than 100% of our gambling losses (c) shift to a winning strategy (d) play a losing strategy but at small enough stakes, that we can play for a very long time.

Strategies (probability redistrbution, and money-management) may lower the odds of going broke right away, while raising the odds of a "big win" and getting lucky in the beginning, while slightly lowering the payouts of the intermediate results.

e.g. Reverse martingale gives more small losses, while raising the odds of a "big win" when you win 10-20 times in a row.

If you have 1,000 units, start at 1 unit, and only increase after wins, decreasing back to 1 until after a loss...you will play at least 1,000 times (all losses) before you go broke.
If you have 1,000 units, and do a 2-unit flat bet, you might only last 500 bets before going broke.

...regardless of what the odds are on the game. 101% or 99%.

(2) We can play for enough hours, days, weeks, months, years that we are happy. Our (CE) Certainty Equivalent is positive, even though our eventual EV is negative.

(3) We can pay a "winning" strategy with enough bankroll for long enough, that (barring ectremely bad luck; e.g. dying in a car crash) we expect to be winning $X (say $10,000/yr or $100,000/yr) with 95-99% probability.

(4) ....or we play long enough to get a stock tip which allows us to make a fortune.

(5) ...etc, etc...

I get a little tired of people who think that #3 is the ONLY way to win.

In reality, I think most successful gamblers do #1 before #3... Just as most successful entrepreneurs will tell you that they got butt-lucky on their first company, when they were clueless as sh**, and got enough money to make the mistakes later in life (on their 2nd, 3rd, etc... companies) without going broke.

-----
I often play "stupid losing games" with $100-10,000. Sometimes I have winning streaks for many months...or even a year. On one game, I've been stupid lucky for about 1 year now.

Mathematically my overall profit is "sound", because the amount I play is less than 1% of my profit.

e.g. if you make $1,000/month and gamble a maximum $10/month, it can't drop your profits by more than 1%.

One of my AP friends gambles $20-30 at the end of each day on random stuff. One time he won almost $20K...enough to cover 700-1,000+ more days of gambling.

Quote: JoelDeze

The goals of this strategy are:

Keep Risk Low

to simply bet less and not much on odds will achieve that

Quote:

Optimize Survival

that's one thing

Quote:

Reduce Overall Rolls to achieve a 100% return

quite another! This statement, although not claiming to be 100% "plus" , is rather disappointing not only to "mathletes" but those of us who knew way back in 4th grade that the House has an edge.

Quote:

Take Advantage of Odds (optional)

a player needs no special strategy for that

And then I look at the charts and see that the results are not tied to weighted probabilities.

Joel, you are smarter than the average bear so I won't claim there isn't some sense somewhere in your strategy, but I long ago vowed to not waste time on any such as you've posted.

This is either: 1) Steen steps in and produces the sim to give the answer, or 2) Joel does that work himself with Win Craps.

Produce a few hundred or thousand sessions of x rolls or x seven outs and see how often it wins or loses and the final score.

Quote: WatchMeWin

You put a lot of thought into this.. I wouldn't say it is a winning strategy however. Tell me where you find the 7 to come every 8.5 rolls... please! You are lucky if you get 3 numbers before the 7.

This will help answer your question. Go to the bottom of the page.

Mean = 8.525510

But, since the 7 is the last number you can subtract one. In this case we are looking at 7.5 rolls before a 7 is rolled.

Hey Einstein! That 8.52510 would also include the comeout 7!

Quote: DeMango

Hey Einstein! That 8.52510 would also include the comeout 7!

And where did I say it didn't Captain Obvious?

Quote: DeMango

Hey Einstein! That 8.52510 would also include the comeout 7!

Quote: JoelDeze

And where did I say it didn't Captain Obvious?

This rudeness is uncalled for. Warning.

Quote: JoelDeze

And where did I say it didn't Captain Obvious?

If you think you will get 8+ rolls with only one seven, as you imply, prepare for bankruptcy !

My last 7 sessions:

4 points
4 points
3 points
2 points
3 points
4 points
1 point

If anyone is near twin river that wants to verify I'm happy to oblige. My DI improved after my wrist injury and I do believe that I have a solid wrist locking throw.

I also can verify that a major influence into controlling dice is being able to greatly influence one die. Not two. My roll average used to be 12. It's now up to 17 over the last 20 sessions.

Playing anything but 7 works fine. Although I'm pressing and placing place bets with field wins. Yesterday I earned $740 on my first roll and had more than $600 on the place bets. The most difficult thing to do is to take bets down or reset them. Especially if you are rolling well and have confidence.

The offer stands for anyone near Twin River that wants to verify.

Okay, my apologies. Did not know you were a DI.

Quote: beachbumbabs

This rudeness is uncalled for. Warning.

Is there a double standard here?

When DeMango uses the term "Hey Einstein", you don't see a rudeness comment.

But when JoelDeze makes a "measured response" to DeMango's rude comment, it is JoelDeze who gets the warning.

It would be nice if moderator treated each person fairly.

Quote: JoelDeze

If anyone is near twin river that wants to verify I'm happy to oblige. My DI improved after my wrist injury and I do believe that I have a solid wrist locking throw.

I also can verify that a major influence into controlling dice is being able to greatly influence one die. Not two. My roll average used to be 12. It's now up to 17 over the last 20 sessions.

1. Statistics tell us you only need one of the dice to be biased (two dice is nice but one die is sufficient) to get or effect non-random rolls, and this gets to point #2

2. You need to give us the raw data so we can calculate the chi-square statistics, use degree of freedom and obtain the p value, and gets to point #3

3. It would be nice if the person or source of the data is independent of you. For example, people who play Aruze bubble crap can rely on the game recording the last 15 results at a time.

As you know, anyone can claim or assert "anything" on the internet. Independent verification is so important to support a claim.

Quote: VideoBJ

Is there a double standard here?

When DeMango uses the term "Hey Einstein", you don't see a rudeness comment.

5 posts in 7 years here! Glad to know I woke up Rip van Winkle!

Quote: DeMango

5 posts in 7 years here! Glad to know I woke up Rip van Winkle!

Hey DeMango, why do you like to throw INSULTS at people?

Quote: VideoBJ

Is there a double standard here?

When DeMango uses the term "Hey Einstein", you don't see a rudeness comment.

But when JoelDeze makes a "measured response" to DeMango's rude comment, it is JoelDeze who gets the warning.

It would be nice if moderator treated each person fairly.

If you look at my actual post, I quoted both of them, specifically the Hey Einstein garbage. I was warning DeMango fully as much as Joel. Trying to nip the rudeness in the bud before it got beyond that exchange of "pleasantries". Curious how you missed that.

Quote: JoelDeze

I just wanted to throw out a strategy I've been using in Craps now, which is working rather well. I call it "Anything But 7 with Odds".

The goals of this strategy are:

Keep Risk Low
Optimize Survival
Reduce Overall Rolls to achieve a 100% return
Take Advantage of Odds (optional)

The highs are that you have a high probability to receive a 100% return by Roll #5 (including the come out). Roll 6 onward is optional but I'll outline the strategy in full.

Example Table: Min $10 with 5x Odds

On the come out roll there's no bet. Wait for the point to be set. If the point is not set on the very first roll, move to the odds section.

If the point is set on the first roll during come out, in this example I'll start with $100 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($25/$30/$30/$15) The example below shows what monetary return would occur on every roll starting with this bet. The avg return is $19.50 and the number of rolls it would take to achieve a maximum return is approximately 5.13 rolls.

For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (5/5/5/3).

DICE	RTN
2	30
3	15
4	15
5	20
6	20
7	-100
8	20
9	15
10	15
11	15
12	30
AVG R	19.5
ROLL R	5.13

On Roll #2, Roll #3, these bets do not change.

Starting on Roll #4, change the wager to: $61 risk (5/6/8/Field) for ($15/$18/$18/$10). For those of you who prefer units, if the base if $5 and $6 (6/8), the units I'm using are (3/3/3/2).

DICE	RTN
2	20
3	10
4	10
5	11
6	11
7	-61
8	11
9	10
10	10
11	10
12	20
AVG R	12.3
ROLL R	4.96

The avg return drops to $12.30 with a roll return of under 5. However, charting the first 5 rolls we get:

Roll	AVG R	Risk	Survival
1	$-	$-	1.000000
2	$20	$100	0.888889
3	$20	$100	0.772119
4	$12	$61	0.667353
5	$12	$61	0.576129
Total	$64	$61

Effectively, this brings the 6 roll minimum down to 5 rolls before achieving a 100% return (or 0% risk). The avg roll before 7-out per person is roughly 8.5 rolls, but our survival is over 57% at all times.

At this point, you have four options available:

1. Play on for another 3 rolls and take everything down if you survive.
2. Play on until 7-out, press/pull strategy.
3. Take down all bets and take the 100% profit to the next roller.
4. Take advantage of Odds.

I will outline how to take advantage of Odds.

Odds

This strategy should be played when one of the following events occurs:

* You are on roll #6 (using the strategy above).
You are on roll #3+ and the shooter did not set a point on the first roll of a come out roll.

Start by placing $10/$10 in the Come and Don't Come boxes. You only lose if a 12 is rolled. See the table below:

Roll of	Don't Come Strategy	Come Strategy	House Edge
4	Max Odds on DC	No Odds	0.83
5	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
6	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
8	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
9	No Odds	Max Odds on Come	0.85
10	Max Odds on DC	No Odds	0.83

On a 12 you lose the come bet and DC is a push (alternatively you could place a $1 bet on midnight), on 3,7,11 you lose or win nothing. On any other roll, both the DC and Come moves to the new point. Based on the table you then place Odds only. This moves the HE under 1%.

You can also attempt to take advantage of streaks by choosing to place Odds on the Come (if the current shooter has already hit a point) or just on the DC (if the current shooter has not yet hit a point). This part is up to you.

The second part to the strategy (if you start from the beginning) gives you a $50 dollar free wager with house money on a low house edge bet. How much risk appetite you have is up to you. Even if you lose the $50 bet, you should have finished with $10+ on the roller.

You also have the option to change Odds from the come to the DC and vice versa at any time.

Can you explain this in further detail? Thanks.

Quote: RS

Can you explain this in further detail? Thanks.

And some insults are subtle!