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beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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July 31st, 2016 at 11:26:19 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

"However, 20 basis points is a 60% or 70% increase in the margin of a dice game, so that the outcome in terms of profitability was based upon a rather granular analysis of each game."

I still don't know what this means. What is a "granular analysis"? Thank you. (no, google didn't help me)



I will take a stab at this, and I'm sure if I get some part of it wrong, it will be corrected by the dice experts.

It comes from having a $5 pass line bet, or multiples of it, and the corresponding dp bet.

I killed the details I'd typed because it's not something I can explain simply or well. But the problem is that you don't get paid true odds on all 2x bets, and the pay is under rather than over the fraction. On 3-4-5x, as long as you full bet them, you do.

So, on each bet where they don't pay true odds on a win, the table gains some basis points because of the underpay. If you do it to yourself by not playing the odds offered, the short pay is not built into the table, but if the house limit is 2x odds, it is. The HE for the basic game is the same, but your effective HE is slightly lower.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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July 31st, 2016 at 11:59:14 AM permalink
Odds: 5x odds and 3x4x5x odds are pretty much the same thing, the difference being speed and ease of surveillance.

2x odds is what most players tend to play no matter what is available. They will GRIPE about not having 100x but they will never actually bet at that rate.

Casinos compete on their marquees but rarely on the casino floor.

I'm told that your line bet should be what is required to play at highest comfortable odds since the part of your total bet that is the 'odds bet' is the only part that is free of a house edge.

However, those math types also tell me that its best to make but ONE bet and then walk away..... and ain't nobody that does that.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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July 31st, 2016 at 12:33:43 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I will take a stab at this...you don't get paid true odds on all 2x bets



I think you boned the knife LOL

free odds pay 2:1, 3:2, and 6:5, so unless you fail to bet in increments of $5, or fail to take full 2x, or other uncommon situations, you can't fail to get paid right.

player mistakes to cause shortpay can happen, but it's not why a place would want 2x odds and not offer 3x4x5x, which has shortpay scenarios too [edit]
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are actually endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically so, don't you see. 
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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July 31st, 2016 at 12:36:22 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I think you boned the knife LOL

free odds pay 2:1, 3:2, and 6:5, so unless you fail to bet in increments of $5, or fail to take full 2x, or other uncommon situations, you can't fail to get paid right.

player mistakes to cause shortpay can happen, but it's not why a place would want 2x odds and not offer 3x4x5x



I thought it was the dp side where you get shorted, which I mentioned? I could be wrong.

Of course, you COULD explain it to me AND him, since you know why the 2x odds cause a change in the basis points.... :)
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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July 31st, 2016 at 12:53:09 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I thought it was the dp side where you get shorted, which I mentioned? I could be wrong.

Of course, you COULD explain it to me AND him, since you know why the 2x odds cause a change in the basis points.... :)



any DP player has to be on his toes for the odds, as he has to consider the payoff as if he was right-betting first, then switch sides in his mind.

if playing 2x odds and the point is 5 or 9, for example, at a $5 table you would put $10 as a rightside player doing full odds, and it would pay $15 on a win. So as a darkside player you put that $15 as your free odds bet, to get paid $10 on a win. And, no, you would not be prohibited from placing $15 with a dealer fussing that is 3 times your bet instead of 2 times your bet.

Wynn's figures seems to come from the combined bet rightside, which can be seen in the link near the bottom. I say 'seems' because he's using the approximate figures for "full double odds" which is *a variation* from 2x odds. Maybe that is what they have, not 2x

http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are actually endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically so, don't you see. 
NokTang
NokTang
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July 31st, 2016 at 4:08:19 PM permalink
In a double odds game, tradition was with a $10.usd pass line bet, you could put $25.usd behind it, likewise lay $30.usd on the Don't Pass with the point being 6/8. I'm not sure where the "short pay" you refer comes from unless of course the player doesn't know and "only" plays $20.usd behind a $10.usd PL wager. Even then again, memory says he's paid $24.usd on a winner so don't get your point? On the other numbers the math is straight forward, no rounding against the player.

I think Mr. Wynn and his math guys are making the assumption all players take/lay full odds offered. I would think he's smarter than that, but who ever really knows. As players, we know as mentioned, most don't exceed double odds no matter what's on offer.

I do recall single odds games on cruise's to nowhere.

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