## Poll

4 votes (40%) | |||

1 vote (10%) | |||

5 votes (50%) | |||

No votes (0%) | |||

No votes (0%) | |||

No votes (0%) | |||

No votes (0%) |

**10 members have voted**

March 31st, 2016 at 8:06:49 AM
permalink

this is part 2 from

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/25403-double-1-000-into-2-000/

the poll is for fun like the other was

some will be surprised of course (like me!)

<<<>>>

poll question

is

what is the chance to

turn $1000 into $2000 betting the pass line using the Marty betting system.

<<<>>>

the original turn $1000 into $2000 flat betting the pass line

turned out to be very boring

now to add more excitement

the Marty!

we all love Marty

hehe

1st bet = $10 on the pass line

when lose bet $20 or double the last losing bet

no odds... huh

comps will be better than flat betting

when win a bet, go back to basic $10 bet

if can not bet double the last losing bet

bet it ALL!

Yahoo Yahoo!!

maybe it takes less time too (1+1)

and more can win more money

with Marty!

Mo Mo Mo

Go Go Go

Sally

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/25403-double-1-000-into-2-000/

the poll is for fun like the other was

some will be surprised of course (like me!)

<<<>>>

poll question

is

what is the chance to

turn $1000 into $2000 betting the pass line using the Marty betting system.

<<<>>>

the original turn $1000 into $2000 flat betting the pass line

turned out to be very boring

now to add more excitement

the Marty!

we all love Marty

hehe

1st bet = $10 on the pass line

when lose bet $20 or double the last losing bet

no odds... huh

comps will be better than flat betting

when win a bet, go back to basic $10 bet

if can not bet double the last losing bet

bet it ALL!

Yahoo Yahoo!!

maybe it takes less time too (1+1)

and more can win more money

with Marty!

Mo Mo Mo

Go Go Go

Sally

I Heart Vi Hart

March 31st, 2016 at 9:18:46 AM
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What if you jump from $10 loss to $100 bet? Then from $100 bet to $300 bet, assuming loss again. Then from $300 bet to $800 bet? You lost 100+300+800, jhit happens. Start over, try that a gazillion times or so. I would do it but I don't know how ;-( cheers, just 2F...

Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F

March 31st, 2016 at 10:27:07 AM
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If my equation solver is working properly, I get 45.620221%, or about 1 in 2.192.

March 31st, 2016 at 11:28:18 AM
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the info I do have (due have) on the Marty for this poll is small but I like the average number of rolls to complete the experiment-challenge. looks to be abouts 546 rolls

from wincraps classic (goes good with skittles)

from wincraps classic (goes good with skittles)

I Heart Vi Hart

March 31st, 2016 at 1:54:12 PM
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If Beginning new session Then

bankroll = 1000 :

autotake full odds = false

EndIf

If passline loses Then

Bet last passline * 2 on passline

ElseIf comeout roll Then

Bet $10 on passline

EndIf

If bankroll < 10 Or bankroll >= 2000 Then

start new session

EndIf

Last edited by: Steen on Mar 31, 2016

May 5th, 2016 at 11:46:08 PM
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Quote:mustangsallythis is part 2 from

what is the chance to

turn $1000 into $2000 betting the pass line using the Marty betting system.

Oncedear rule of thumb applies very well indeed to low house edge, even money bets using Marty with a small base unit.

P=Initial Bankroll/(Target Profit+Initial Bankroll) . Approx.

P=1000/(1000+1000)

P=50%

1 in 2 (and a bit for house edge)

FAR FAR BETTER than 1 in 18 !!!!!!

Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.

June 27th, 2018 at 10:55:00 AM
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I was going to add my calculation from Excel (I think I lost it in a different folder, in other words I lost it!)Quote:ThatDonGuyIf my equation solver is working properly, I get 45.620221%, or about 1 in 2.192.

so as I have yet to convert Excel to online R use

*****

my sim data (in Excel) shows

Went Bust: 54.16200%

Hit Target: 45.83800% <<< 1 in 2.18

avg bet = $36.17

take that average bet and make it $40

flat betting $40 now shows this (remember 0 odds) (turning 25 units into 50)

> gambler.ruin(25,25, 244/495, "Craps pass line 0x odds")

[1] "Craps pass line 0x odds. Stake:25, Target:50"

[1] "p(goal):0.330236, p(ruin):0.669764"

[1] "mean Trials:600.237, mean given Goal:600.237, mean given Ruin:600.237"

https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/risk-of-ruin

section 2r.

p(goal):0.330236 is about 1 in 3 on average

much better (but expected)

*****

how does this compare to 100 units into 200 units

with the free odds bet?

well, I used some R code (and a Markov chain solution)

(will post that code online as soon as it is cleaned up)

It was my 1st attempt long ago.

I do way better now

I do way better now

##### suggest bankroll_target no lower than 20

# Gambler's Ruin - mean time in transient states

# and probabilities to target goal and ruin

title <- 'pass 345x odds. over-shoot target possible'

bankroll_target <- 200 # Enter bankroll target (in units)

bankroll_start <- (bankroll_target/2)

# Enter a different starting bankroll, default is 50% of target

##### do not change any below here

bankGainUnit <- (bankroll_target - bankroll_start)

startBr <- (bankroll_start) # for avg # of trials sum (from Q returns Index #)

states <- (bankroll_target + 7) # (target = 1st term))

#example target==20;(20+7)(over-shoot target states=7)

pass <- 244/495 # prob of win 1 unit flat bet (not enough for odds bet)

miss <- 251/495 # prob of loss 1 unit flat bet (not enough for odds bet)

SevenOut <- 196/495

Point <- 134/495

ptFourLoss <- 1/9

ptFiveLoss <- 2/15

ptSixLoss <- 5/33

nat <- 2/9

craps <- 1/9

target <- bankroll_target # absorbing state target goal EXACT

state2state <- (target - 1) #last state index

absorb_states <- target # begin absorb states

row.col_Names <- c(1:(states - 1),0)

# enter transition probability matrix

P <- matrix(rep(0,states^2), nrow=states, ncol=states,

dimnames = list(row.col_Names, row.col_Names))

# absorbing goal/ruin states = 1

for (i in target:states) {P[i, i] <- 1 }

# to ruin from 1:6 bank trying to double-up

for (i in 1:5) {P[i, states] <- miss }

P[6,states] <- ptSixLoss

# to pass - 1 to 5 bank double-up success

for (i in 1:5) {P[i, i * 2] <- pass }

# Point diag starts at P[6,13]

for (i in 6:state2state) {P[i,i + 7] <- Point }

# nat diag starts at P[6,7]

for (i in 6:state2state) {P[i,i + 1] <- nat }

# craps diag starts at P[6,5]

for (i in 6:state2state) {P[i,i - 1] <- craps }

# ptFourLoss diag starts at P[6,2]

for (i in 6:state2state) {P[i,i - 4] <- ptFourLoss }

# ptFiveLoss diag starts at P[6,1]

for (i in 6:state2state) {P[i,i - 5] <- ptFiveLoss }

# ptSixLoss diag starts at P[7,1]

for (i in 7:state2state) {P[i,i - 6] <- ptSixLoss }

#P # uncomment to show matrix

#print(formatC(P),quote=FALSE)

P_sums <- as.matrix(rowSums(P))

colnames(P_sums) <- list("total")

#print(P_sums)

# take sub-matrix for transient states to states

P.s <- P[1:state2state, 1:state2state]

#P.s

# take sub-matrix for transient states to absorbing states

P.t <- P[1:state2state, absorb_states:states]

#P.t

# compute mean number of revisits matrix S

Q <- solve(diag(state2state)-P.s)

#Q

# sum entries in Xth row of Q

sum(Q[startBr,])

#bankroll_start

#startBr #Index number

Q_sums <- as.matrix(rowSums(Q))

colnames(Q_sums) <- list("avg trials")

#print(Q_sums)

QT <- Q %*% P.t

#QT

goalG <- QT[1:state2state, 1:7]

#goalG

success_target <- as.matrix(rowSums(goalG))

colnames(success_target) <- list("p(target)")

#print(success_target)

ruinR <- QT[1:state2state, 8]

#ruinR

ruinR <- as.matrix(ruinR)

colnames(ruinR) <- list("p(ruin) ")

#print(ruinR)

S2Srow_names <- as.matrix(seq(1, (bankroll_target - 1), by=1 ))

colnames(S2Srow_names) <- list("bank")

#print(S2Srow_names)

final <- cbind(S2Srow_names, success_target, ruinR, Q_sums)

rownames(final) <- c()

#print(final)

data <- as.matrix(final[startBr, ])

colnames(data) <- list("data ")

print(title)

print(formatC(data,digits=10),quote=FALSE)

bankroll_target

bankGainUnit

Full 2x odds($10flat wit $25 odds on 6&8): p(target) 0.4229117 <<<lower than a Marty

345x odds: p(target) 0.4704061 <<< a bit higher than a Marty

*** note this is hitting target exactly *** most do and will not play this way

345x odds: p(target) 0.4647375755 where one can go over the target (from 20 to 26 units)

INTERESTING, I do say so

[1] "pass 345x odds. over-shoot target possible"

> print(sprintf("Bankroll target:%g, unit gain:%g",bankroll_target,bankGainUnit))

[1] "Bankroll target:200, unit gain:100"

> print(formatC(data,digits=10),quote=FALSE)

data

bank 100

p(target) 0.4647375755

p(ruin) 0.5352624245

avg trials 422.46213

[1] "pass 345x odds. Exact target"

> print(data)

data

bank 100.0000000

p(target) 0.4704061

p(ruin) 0.5295939

avg trials 413.7700891

> bankroll_target

[1] 200

> bankGainUnit

[1] 100

[1] "pass Full 2x odds. Exact target"

> print(data)

data

bank 100.0000000

p(target) 0.4229117

p(ruin) 0.5770883

avg trials 1077.0895754

> bankroll_target

[1] 200

> bankGainUnit

[1] 100

[1] "don't pass 345x odds. Exact target"

> print(data)

data

bank 100.0000000

p(target) 0.4713885

p(ruin) 0.5286115

avg trials 415.9557935

> bankroll_target

[1] 200

> bankGainUnit

[1] 100

this shows why Marty has been around for a long time

and keeps on being discovered

even to this day!

I am guessing that in truth

the Marty does have a place in the sun!

Sally

Last edited by: mustangsally on Jun 27, 2018

I Heart Vi Hart

June 27th, 2018 at 11:01:22 AM
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I'll never forget the day I invented it. Made a paper profit of almost $1,000 playing Sic Bo. The next day, starting at $1 units, I was up $225 by lunch.

I simply couldn't believe no one had ever done this before. Of course, I gave it all back after lunch.

I simply couldn't believe no one had ever done this before. Of course, I gave it all back after lunch.

The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.