Whats the probability of tossing 58 tosses in a row without ever getting a seven
Note that the probability of 4 11s in a row is 1 in 104,976, so it doesn't come close to that, much less 18 of them.
Quote: DanMahoneyThanks for the quick response. My gut feeling is that it would be easier to toss 4 11s in a row then 60 or so non sevens tosses. That just goes to show how wrong impressions can be.
63 non-7s in a row is about 1 in 97,369; 64 is about 1 in 116,842.
What are the odds of Pat Demauro throwing her 154 rolls before a seven out.......
5.59 billion to one... yet she did just that.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterThatdontguy
What are the odds of Pat Demauro throwing her 154 rolls before a seven out.......
5.59 billion to one... yet she did just that.
dicesetter
Actually it's approx 1.56 trillion to one.
What I've never been clear on is did she roll a 7 on any of her come out rolls, thus still keeping her roll?
Quote: dicesitterThatdontguy
What are the odds of Pat Demauro throwing her 154 rolls before a seven out.......
5.59 billion to one... yet she did just that.
dicesetter
So, twice as likely as getting 8 yos in a row? Hmmm...8 is almost 18, right?
Quote: MidwestAPActually it's approx 1.56 trillion to one.
What I've never been clear on is did she roll a 7 on any of her come out rolls, thus still keeping her roll?
She did roll 7s on the come out. I think that takes some of the rarity out of the event, so the 1.56 trillion is high.
*edited post for clarity*
Quote: rdw4potusShe did roll 7s on the come out. I think that takes some of the rarity out of the event, so the 1.56 trillion is high.
*edited post for clarity*
Agreed, 1.56 trillion would be for no 7's on any roll. thanks
Quote: dicesitterThatdontguy
What are the odds of Pat Demauro throwing her 154 rolls before a seven out.......
5.59 billion to one... yet she did just that.
dicesetter
That is incorrect. That is the way Time magazine reported it thinking a dice hand can have no sevens. Her hand did in fact have numerous sevens; during come out rolls after points were made. So the odds of her roll occurring were much more realistic.
Quote: BasesLoadedThat is incorrect. That is the way Time magazine reported it thinking a dice hand can have no sevens. Her hand did in fact have numerous sevens; during come out rolls after points were made. So the odds of her roll occurring were much more realistic.
Actually, 5.59 billion to 1 (Excel says it's 5,590,264,071 to 1, but that's subject to roundoff error) is the probability that includes 7s on the comeout rolls.
Still, even a run of 217 rolls without a seven-out is more likely than 18 straight 11s. In fact, a run of 200 or more is 12.7 times as likely.
However you rate it, it is something.
The point I was making is that no matter what the odds, funny things
can happen on a craps table, and people should not be so quick to
call others a liar or whatever, when there is really no way to know if
some one did throw 18 yo's in a row, or 154 rolls without a seven out.
dicesetter
Yep, the odds are odds. They say it has to happen eventually. Maybe it happened yesterday, maybe you should have been there ;-) 2FQuote: dicesitterThatdontguy
However you rate it, it is something.
The point I was making is that no matter what the odds, funny things
can happen on a craps table, and people should not be so quick to
call others a liar or whatever, when there is really no way to know if
some one did throw 18 yo's in a row, or 154 rolls without a seven out.
dicesetter
Nice one.Quote: DanMahoneySounds like a lot of craps to me.
about $600. 0nce in a lifetime thing.
