Question for dark side players

If you have been playing at a table for a long time and there's a shooter that is consistently making points every time it's his turn to roll, do you chalk it up to luck and go in swinging with a big don't bet or do you not bet against him/her or bet light?

There were a couple shooters that were always cracking me on the donts tonight.

When I was a Dark Side player a while back, I used to follow the Wizard's advice of betting the minimum on the don't and laying at least 10x odds against every shooter, regardless of their past roll history.

My friend normally gets a +20 roll at least once per session and I almost busted out several times from betting against him.

Since then, I've switched to betting across every time he gets the dice. He'll get the occasional PSO, but his monster rolls more than make up for that.

If you're strictly a Dark Side player and refuse to bet on the Light Side, I'd suggest sitting out against any "hot" shooter and only bet against the "cold" shooters.

Of course whether or not someone was a hot or cold shooter has nothing to do with how he will shoot next time.

However, to answer your question, if someone has done me a lot of damage I usually bet lightly; on the darkside I might forgo any DC betting.

It's purely a nod to superstition, however.

bet 10-20-40 on the don't no odds then 15-30-60 til you get even from your 70 loss then go back to 10-20-40 if you lose both take a break and start over. its $175 sometimes 3 points aren't made for hours.

Quote: champ724

bet 10-20-40 on the don't no odds then 15-30-60 til you get even from your 70 loss then go back to 10-20-40 if you lose both take a break and start over. its $175 sometimes 3 points aren't made for hours.

I'm curious why you wouldn't place odds when, if there's a point, you now have the advantage?

Quote: beachbumbabs

I'm curious why you wouldn't place odds when, if there's a point, you now have the advantage?

well, it is true that the free odds do not give you an advantage

not that I can quite decipher what the champ had to say

Quote: odiousgambit

well, it is true that the free odds do not give you an advantage

not that I can quite decipher what the champ had to say

I may have said that badly. By "advantage", I meant that, now that you've gotten past the come-out (a condition of my question), a seven is more likely than any other roll, so why wouldn't you back up your dc bet with odds? I thought I understood this, but you've got me questioning what the point of dc odds is if not that.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I may have said that badly. By "advantage", I meant that, now that you've gotten past the come-out (a condition of my question), a seven is more likely than any other roll, so why wouldn't you back up your dc bet with odds? I thought I understood this, but you've got me questioning what the point of dc odds is if not that.

Well, your original DC bet does have the advantage. However, the odds you lay will not have an advantage, because you have to lay more odds than you will win.
$25 DC bet and the point is 10.
You are a 2:1 favorite to win this bet, and you will get paid $25.
If you lay $150 in odds (6x which works for a 3-4-5x table), you will only get paid $100 ($75+$25), even though you now had $175 in total action.

While you 'should' win the DC bet, if you don't win when you have laid (layed) odds, you take a pretty bad beating.

Laying odds just gives you the opportunity to get a lot more action down, on a purely 50/50 bet. Because you have bet more than you will win, you have negated the 'advantage' of winning on a roll of 7.

I know the math shows that laying odds is immaterial, but to me it just 'feels' like I am diluting my advantage on my existing DC bet.

$25 DC (point of 4) should get paid $12.50 ($25/2), but instead I am getting paid $25, so I am overpaid by $12.50, or a 100% over payment.

$175 ($25 DC w/$150 lay odd) would get paid $87.50 ($175/2), but instead I get paid $100, still overpaid by $12.50, but now it is only 25% over payment.

So by laying odds, I am reducing what would have been a 100% over payment, to a 25% over payment, albeit on a larger amount of payment.

If my percentages are off, please feel free to correct me. It should be basic math, but it is hurting my brain this morning.

Bring on the math wrath. :-)

Quote: RaleighCraps

Well, your original DC bet does have the advantage. However, the odds you lay will not have an advantage, because you have to lay more odds than you will win.
$25 DC bet and the point is 10.
You are a 2:1 favorite to win this bet, and you will get paid $25.
If you lay $150 in odds (6x which works for a 3-4-5x table), you will only get paid $100 ($75+$25), even though you now had $175 in total action.

While you 'should' win the DC bet, if you don't win when you have laid (layed) odds, you take a pretty bad beating.

Laying odds just gives you the opportunity to get a lot more action down, on a purely 50/50 bet. Because you have bet more than you will win, you have negated the 'advantage' of winning on a roll of 7.

I know the math shows that laying odds is immaterial, but to me it just 'feels' like I am diluting my advantage on my existing DC bet.

$25 DC (point of 4) should get paid $12.50 ($25/2), but instead I am getting paid $25, so I am overpaid by $12.50, or a 100% over payment.

$175 ($25 DC w/$150 lay odd) would get paid $87.50 ($175/2), but instead I get paid $100, still overpaid by $12.50, but now it is only 25% over payment.

So by laying odds, I am reducing what would have been a 100% over payment, to a 25% over payment, albeit on a larger amount of payment.

If my percentages are off, please feel free to correct me. It should be basic math, but it is hurting my brain this morning.

Bring on the math wrath. :-)

This answers my question exactly. Thank you so much, RC! It is the missing link in my understanding this bet.

Quote: RaleighCraps

$25 DC (point of 4) should get paid $12.50 ($25/2), but instead I am getting paid $25,
so I am overpaid by $12.50, or a 100% over payment.

this is Ahigh craps math,
you have a ticket to his show?

this is so wrong on so many sides!
remember boys and girls,
the math for a 2 staged bet is different from a one staged bet
perfectly OK to get it wrong

because
the entertainment factor is so HIGH!

1/3 of your DC bets the moment they are IN the dcome box NEVER , on averageeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,
make it behind the number
NEVER

Quote: RaleighCraps

I know the math shows that laying odds is immaterial,

again so wrong it is still funny
you do not "know" the math shows that

some math shows that as a percentage
net / total bets resolved
approaches 0%
and that is it
****************>>>>>><<<<<<<<***************
in real $$$$
the more odds bets one makes in lifetime of play
the far greater the chance of either showing a net win or a net loss (and it can not be both) and a very rare case one would lose exactly $0 from all odds bets made

math can prove this i have shown B4
of course, no one wants to care
they still think old thoughts - great for old-times (those over 30)

Quote: RaleighCraps

$175 ($25 DC w/$150 lay odd) would get paid $87.50 ($175/2), but instead I get paid $100, still overpaid by $12.50,

hahahaha
this is so funny

hahahaha

Quote: RaleighCraps

So by laying odds, I am reducing what would have been a 100% over payment, to a 25% over payment, albeit on a larger amount of payment.

albeit on a larger amount of payment!!!!!!!!!
no ev laughter

hahahahahahah

Quote: RaleighCraps

If my percentages are off, please feel free to correct me. It should be basic math, but it is hurting my brain this morning.

Bring on the math wrath. :-)

hahahahahahaha
still so funny

no POT required (and no weight gain from eating too much)
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHA

and Paul Mc-Car-t-ney says he stopped smoking pot long long ago
hahahahaha

because
he has so many drugs still in his system, he needs no more
just ask Brian Wil------------------------son about taking drugs

always take some kind of drug when playing craps
that way math means nothing
1+2=0
2*5=0
$25 DC + $150 odds = 0


yes!

I alway tread lightly on the don't after getting burned by a "good" shooter. There is almost always one person, even on a "cold" table that will have a few good rolls. Last time I played there was one guy that wiped out all my winnings three times in a row. I would win on everyone else and lose it all back on him. Eventualy I quit betting on him so he went point seven out lol. He never had a good roll after that and I left the table with some money.

The last time I played I would have been a lot farther ahead had I placed a 6 and 8 for a few rolls. There where few points made, besides the one shooter that wiped me out, but very few pso's to.

Quote: guitarmandp

there's a shooter that is consistently making points every time it's his turn to roll, do you chalk it up to luck and go in swinging with a big don't bet or do you not bet against him/her or bet light?

If he or she has hurt me twice, I stay away. As a matter of fact, that is a good time for my four- across-inside tip for the dealers. They seem to appreciate that, too.

Quote: mustangsally

1/3 of your DC bets the moment they are IN the dcome box NEVER , on averageeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee, make it behind the number NEVER

For the other 2/3 of the time, though, you are in the driver's seat. And there are ways to deal with the comeout that mitigate its pernicious effects.

Quote: beachbumbabs

you've got me questioning what the point of dc odds is if not that.

The big thing is, if you are comfortable with a $35 bet, then bet $5 and lay $30 on the odds.

If you are only comfortable with a $5 bet, then you should not think "you have to" make the odds bet, it does not help you win more money ... the EV is the same. Just bet $5 on the line and stick with it. [of course such table minimum must be available]

You've got to get your mind wrapped around that or you will never get it IMO

To think that someone who claims to be that young knows about Brian Wilson. Heart warming. God only knows what WoV would be without Mully.

next time your bored try the 10-20-40 15-30-60 its a $175 chance don't lay any odds no matter how tempting it is. if you wanna lay odds then start higher say 25-50-100 then go to 35-70-140 or 40-80-160. you go 10 shooters without them making 3 passes you make 250.

Quote: DeMango

To think that someone who claims to be that young knows about Brian Wilson.

I only know about him
from his two daughters and Wilson Phillips

and then it is easy to learn more about him from them
and what a 60s boy he is

Quote: DeMango

Heart warming. God only knows <snip>

yes, that song is
Brian has his own band too (not the Beach Boys) and they are all so young and super talent and they play here in SoCal

===========================
"If you have been playing at a table for a long time and there's a shooter that is
consistently
making
points
every
time
it's
his
turn
to
roll,
do you chalk it up to luck and go in swinging with a big don't bet or do you not bet against him/her or bet light?"
I say "NEVER bet against the trend" in any short length session, without trying to change the trend.

if you do (DUE) you get what you deserve
unless, for example,
you challenge verbally that shooter who makes lots of points

but that might take away from the fun at the table and you could get slaughtered still.
i love to hear and watch when other players get slaughtered


you need to stop playing the d o n t s
, in my opinion,
you do not haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaave the patience for it
(but you seem to have the superstition belief that should make you feel better but nothing for your tiny bankroll survival)

i still so lucky
Sally

Quote: champ724

<snip>you go 10 shooters without them making 3 passes you make 250.

i say try again

OP is talking about a shooter that makes points, not passes
and has also said he
does not have the patience to be a dont bettor (just wants to watch and win would be my guess)

well,
it is so soooooooooooooo
easy for any shooter
to
make
3
passes

compared to

any
shooter
to
make
3
point
winners

i leave the math for that stuffs and actual dice roll results to the craps experts

Sally

of course its easier to make 3 passes than 3 points. but keep doubling up your odds on 4's and 10's you'll go broke on 1 shooter. if your going to lay the point then lay a number on the comeout when you can win if the shooter throws 4 or 5 sevens in a row don't wait for a point to be established

Quote: mustangsally

I only know about him
from his two daughters and Wilson Phillips

and then it is easy to learn more about him from them
and what a 60s boy he is
yes, that song is
Brian has his own band too (not the Beach Boys) and they are all so young and super talent and they play here in SoCal

===========================
"If you have been playing at a table for a long time and there's a shooter that is
consistently
making
points
every
time
it's
his
turn
to
roll,
do you chalk it up to luck and go in swinging with a big don't bet or do you not bet against him/her or bet light?"
I say "NEVER bet against the trend" in any short length session, without trying to change the trend.

if you do (DUE) you get what you deserve
unless, for example,
you challenge verbally that shooter who makes lots of points

but that might take away from the fun at the table and you could get slaughtered still.
i love to hear and watch when other players get slaughtered


you need to stop playing the d o n t s
, in my opinion,
you do not haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaave the patience for it
(but you seem to have the superstition belief that should make you feel better but nothing for your tiny bankroll survival)

i still so lucky
Sally

I saw you in LV the other day. Not sure about this math you're usually conjuring up, but at least you got good taste.

Quote: RaleighCraps

I know the math shows that laying odds is immaterial ...

Laying odds is immaterial to the EV of the flat bet but it absolutely IS MATERIAL to your bottom line in all cases but one - the case where you would make one bet only and leave never to play again.

Steen

Dont bet on that shooter period! If you just have to bet I would suggest laying a number on the come out.

Great advice!

Quote: RS

I saw you in LV the other day. Not sure about this math you're usually conjuring up, but at least you got good taste.

you recognized those untied pink shoes?

[at least to me , one looks untied, maybe both]

Quote: Steen

Laying odds is immaterial to the EV of the flat bet but it absolutely IS MATERIAL to your bottom line in all cases but one - the case where you would make one bet only and leave never to play again.

Steen

It's All One Big Session...And Then You Die

tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p





"It's All One Big Session...And Then You Die"...tom p, 2004